luck

[sagefr0g]

I can't see that happening over a billion attempts. But any given time, and I often see this in pool, the wanna be wins by luck and the skilled player loses in spite of his skill. It generally doesn't take a billion trials at pool, but only a few, to reverse this temporary miscarriage of justice. May the best player win!

man i seen Color of Money the other night. thought of you dude. you good?

 

[aslan]

man i seen Color of Money the other night. thought of you dude. you good?

Not that good. lol At my age it's a struggle. But I'm better than average. That was a pretty good flick. Always liked Paul Newman. One of my favorites.

 

[aslan]

Pool is funny, Sage. Right now there are a bunch of gamblers where I play who won't play me unless I spot them the world. On the other side, there are a bunch of gamblers who I won't play unless they spot me the world. So I sit around the poolroom most times working crossword puzzles. There are a few close matches, although I'd rather have a slight edge. lol

 

[ccibball50]

Ill play you for a red chip. I suck though but it would be fun playing you

 

[aslan]

Ill play you for a red chip. I suck though but it would be fun playing you

What games do you play, ccibball? For fun, we usually play $20 a game one pocket, or $20/$25 a race to five nineball.

 

[ccibball50]

eight ball and nine ball. I had a couple of pool tables but finally gave them away. Wish I still had them. I'm not bad, but not a pro by any means. I have not played in 2 years though, so Im a little rusty, but I'll play once just for the heck of it. Hey and no hustling. I used to play billiards too. Fun game but not easy. I also played a little snooker too, but have not seen one of those tables in about five years.

I like eight ball better than nine because I see to many people get lucky in nine ball.

 

[sagefr0g]

Pool is funny, Sage. Right now there are a bunch of gamblers where I play who won't play me unless I spot them the world. On the other side, there are a bunch of gamblers who I won't play unless they spot me the world. So I sit around the poolroom most times working crossword puzzles. There are a few close matches, although I'd rather have a slight edge. lol

i'm a complete hack, but it can be fun.
Newman was Fast Eddie in the flick with Jackie Gleason, Minnesota Fats as well. cool movie.
ok for laughs check this little snippet below:

 

[aslan]

eight ball and nine ball. I had a couple of pool tables but finally gave them away. Wish I still had them. I'm not bad, but not a pro by any means. I have not played in 2 years though, so Im a little rusty, but I'll play once just for the heck of it. Hey and no hustling. I used to play billiards too. Fun game but not easy. I also played a little snooker too, but have not seen one of those tables in about five years.

I quit for 28 years or so, during my working years, but I've been back playing since I retired. I don't hustle anymore, although I might backslide occasionally. lol When I gamble, I do so with knowledgeable players who are trying to make a game where they have the best of it. When both sides think they have the best of it, that's when the action starts. No one really wants a dead even game for money. That would be like flipping coins. lol I don't play inferior players so as to rob them unless they insist, for example, to get the experience to improve their game. Sort of like giving lessons for pay. lol But no hustling--ie, misrepresenting my game to be less than it is to a novice.

I'd like to play you. We could keep it for fun. The only reason we play for fun at $20 is because it makes you play serious. $5 pool makes for some very sloppy pool unless you have tons of discipline in your game. But you and I could play for $0, and I'll try hard to play my best, if you know what I mean. So where do you play? Anywhere near DC?

Is this line of discussion going to get us in trouble on this thread? Isn't it about luck? Maybe you should PM me. lol

 

[ccibball50]

I quit for 28 years or so, during my working years, but I've been back playing since I retired. I don't hustle anymore, although I might backslide occasionally. lol When I gamble, I do so with knowledgeable players who are trying to make a game where they have the best of it. When both sides think they have the best of it, that's when the action starts. No one really wants a dead even game for money. That would be like flipping coins. lol I don't play inferior players so as to rob them unless they insist, for example, to get the experience to improve their game. Sort of like giving lessons for pay. lol But no hustling--ie, misrepresenting my game to be less than it is to a novice.

I'd like to play you. We could keep it for fun. The only reason we play for fun at $20 is because it makes you play serious. $5 pool makes for some very sloppy pool unless you have tons of discipline in your game. But you and I could play for $0, and I'll try hard to play my best, if you know what I mean. So where do you play? Anywhere near DC?

Is this line of discussion going to get us in trouble on this thread? Isn't it about luck? Maybe you should PM me. lol

When I refer to hustling, mireprepresenting you skill is exactly what I am talking about. Knowing the skill of your playing and playing straight up is the way to go. I used to do a little hustling years ago as well. Not on any major scale though.

I live too far away to play right now, however I do love to travel, if I am ever up your way, I will let you know. I am in the Deep South so thats quite a trip for pool game.

 

[aslan]

When I refer to hustling, mireprepresenting you skill is exactly what I am talking about. Knowing the skill of your playing and playing straight up is the way to go. I used to do a little hustling years ago as well. Not on any major scale though.

I live too far away to play right now, however I do love to travel, if I am ever up your way, I will let you know. I am in the Deep South so thats quite a trip for pool game.

That's cool. Anywhere near Sarah, Mississippi? That's the first place that came to mind when you said the deep South. I know a cue maker there, don't really know him, but have talked with him on the phone.

 

[sagefr0g]

True or false

scenario:

A.) player plays at an even advantage with the house and has trip bankroll Y units.

B.) player wins X units by sheer luck.

C.) player suspends play and sets aside X units.

conclusion, next time the player plays and for all play there after where condition (A) holds there is no reason that the player should expect that he shall lose X as a result of the fact that he previously won the amount X by luck.
additionally, if said scenario was to repeat how ever many times = Z in the future, there is still no reason that the player should believe he shall lose Z(X) or even X as a result of the fact that he previously won such amount by luck.

true or false?

 

[aslan]

scenario:

A.) player plays at an even advantage with the house and has trip bankroll Y units.

B.) player wins X units by sheer luck.

C.) player suspends play and sets aside X units.

conclusion, next time the player plays and for all play there after where condition (A) holds there is no reason that the player should expect that he shall lose X as a result of the fact that he previously won the amount X by luck.
additionally, if said scenario was to repeat how ever many times = Z in the future, there is still no reason that the player should believe he shall lose Z(X) or even X as a result of the fact that he previously won such amount by luck.

true or false?

True as the day is long! 'Tis the proverbial gambler's fallacy in reverse to say otherwise. His expectation is the same each and every time he plays. But he can expect to get his fair share of minus X's over time. Been there, done that all too often.

 

[sagefr0g]

True as the day is long! 'Tis the proverbial gambler's fallacy in reverse to say otherwise. His expectation is the same each and every time he plays. But he can expect to get his fair share of minus X's over time. Been there, done that all too often.

yeah, that's what's kind of weird to me. i mean shoes are independent of one another. thing is though, one can expect a normal distribution as far as true count frequencies. and what ever, i think to even get things on an even keel advantage wise you have to realize those positive true counts and realize snappers, successful double downs and insurance bets, all with proper betting. as far as that stuff not happening or failing is i guess where a lot of what is standard deviation comes from. so it's all supposed to work out in the long run, but the short run virtually anything can happen. but really what makes me wonder about that scenario that i threw out there, is how there's gonna be the left and right side of the bell curve stuff. i mean it's almost like because of that if one thing is gonna happen on one side of the curve, it's like it's assured that something is gonna happen on the other side of the curve. so maybe the bad luck stuff doesn't happen as a result of the good luck stuff having happened, but it's gonna happen none the less. :whip:
just the way it is i guess.

 

[aslan]

yeah, that's what's kind of weird to me. i mean shoes are independent of one another. thing is though, one can expect a normal distribution as far as true count frequencies. and what ever, i think to even get things on an even keel advantage wise you have to realize those positive true counts and realize snappers, successful double downs and insurance bets, all with proper betting. as far as that stuff not happening or failing is i guess where a lot of what is standard deviation comes from. so it's all supposed to work out in the long run, but the short run virtually anything can happen. but really what makes me wonder about that scenario that i threw out there, is how there's gonna be the left and right side of the bell curve stuff. i mean it's almost like because of that if one thing is gonna happen on one side of the curve, it's like it's assured that something is gonna happen on the other side of the curve. so maybe the bad luck stuff doesn't happen as a result of the good luck stuff having happened, but it's gonna happen none the less. :whip:
just the way it is i guess.

I suppose every quadzillionmoxamillionkatillion times the curve is one sided for a billion sample size. :grin: That's what I mean by the possibility of a person being born who can never make a bad bet, i.e., a truly "lucky" person!!!. But I'm not holding my breath that I'm the one quadzillionmoxamillionkatillionth person, or even the second half of one! lol

 

[Katweezel]

Zimbabwe note

I suppose every quadzillionmoxamillionkatillion times the curve is one sided for a billion sample size. :grin: That's what I mean by the possibility of a person being born who can never make a bad bet, i.e., a truly "lucky" person!!!. But I'm not holding my breath that I'm the one quadzillionmoxamillionkatillionth person, or even the second half of one! lol

Does Zimbabwe have a quadzillionmoxamillionkatillion note yet?

 

[aslan]

Does Zimbabwe have a quadzillionmoxamillionkatillion note yet?

No, it equals about 3.44064e+118 Zimbabwe dollars. :grin: What's that in US dollars?

 

[Katweezel]

Half-time greased report

This luck thread, now in its 44th page, 436th reply and over 11,000 views has taken on a life of its own. But us natives here are becoming restless. We are becoming icreasingly impatient because we want some bottom-line results. We want more LUCK.

We have invested much time, effort, patience and considerable financial resources into this Vital Research Project. To ensure future funding is guaranteed and without placing too much stress on our main Researchers, the point needs to be made that something of substance needs to be forthcoming well before the next Federal Budget begins getting serious consideration. I'm sure both you and your considerable staffing numbers realize the gravity of the situation.

We want greater in-depth understanding and explanation for this phenomenen called luck which, we hope, if and when forthcoming, may increase our EV substantially. We want to be able to generate more LUCK at will, and prolong it. We want to be able to divert, block, interfere with, manipulate and shut down casino luck, which often appears to be dominating, for some very strange reasons... which I also hope you guys can get to the bottom of.

Now, as this thread approaches half time in its life, do you two main guys with this - Sage and Aslan - think that a request for a (secret) preliminary half-time mini-report would be appropriate, if the correct two palms are greased? Already you have a massive 44 accrued pages of first-class evidence on this topic. If a full mini report is out of the question, (and grease) I guess we will just have to wait...:cat:

 

[aslan]

This luck thread, now in its 44th page, 436th reply and over 11,000 views has taken on a life of its own. But us natives here are becoming restless. We are becoming icreasingly impatient because we want some bottom-line results. We want more LUCK.

We have invested much time, effort, patience and considerable financial resources into this Vital Research Project. To ensure future funding is guaranteed and without placing too much stress on our main Researchers, the point needs to be made that something of substance needs to be forthcoming well before the next Federal Budget begins getting serious consideration. I'm sure both you and your considerable staffing numbers realize the gravity of the situation.

We want greater in-depth understanding and explanation for this phenomenen called luck which, we hope, if and when forthcoming, may increase our EV substantially. We want to be able to generate more LUCK at will, and prolong it. We want to be able to divert, block, interfere with, manipulate and shut down casino luck, which often appears to be dominating, for some very strange reasons... which I also hope you guys can get to the bottom of.

Now, as this thread approaches half time in its life, do you two main guys with this - Sage and Aslan - think that a request for a (secret) preliminary half-time mini-report would be appropriate, if the correct two palms are greased? Already you have a massive 44 accrued pages of first-class evidence on this topic. If a full mini report is out of the question, (and grease) I guess we will just have to wait...:cat:

It is true, as rumored, that Sagefr0g and I have discovered the secret for obtaining unlimited quantities of luck. However, we have sworn never to reveal this very dangerous secret. Can you imagine what would happen if the population at large learned the secret of luck? Total chaos of the highest order of magnitude imaginable. Society turned on its head. Massive unemployment. Plummeting production. Super-hyperinflation. If you think the nation's printing presses are busy now, just wait until the secret gets out. And who will man the presses, I ask you? In order to preserve the world, chaotic as it already is, from total chaos, Sagefr0g and I have vowed never to reveal this most perilous and catastrophic secret. Our lips are sealed. With utmost confidence we announce this pursuant to President Obama's signing of an executive order banning torture. The signing was expressly rushed on our behalf, lest our own government might try to force us to spill the beans. We solemnly promise to always use this great and wonderful power in the interest of mankind. May our true identities never be revealed!

PS--I may be away from the Forum for a few days at a time as urgent family business is taking me to Monte Carlo, Dubai, Oahu and then on to Las Vegas as planned months ago for a March vacation.

 

[Katweezel]

It's OUR luck...

It is true, as rumored, that Sagefr0g and I have discovered the secret for obtaining unlimited quantities of luck. However, we have sworn never to reveal this very dangerous secret. Can you imagine what would happen if the population at large learned the secret of luck? Total chaos of the highest order of magnitude imaginable. Society turned on its head. Massive unemployment. Plummeting production. Super-hyperinflation. If you think the nation's printing presses are busy now, just wait until the secret gets out. And who will man the presses, I ask you? In order to preserve the world, chaotic as it already is, from total chaos, Sagefr0g and I have vowed never to reveal this most perilous and catastrophic secret. Our lips are sealed. With utmost confidence we announce this pursuant to President Obama's signing of an executive order banning torture. The signing was expressly rushed on our behalf, lest our own government might try to force us to spill the beans. We solemnly promise to always use this great and wonderful power in the interest of mankind. May our true identities never be revealed!

PS--I may be away from the Forum for a few days at a time as urgent family business is taking me to Monte Carlo, Dubai, Oahu and then on to Las Vegas as planned months ago for a March vacation.

When ve find you, ve haf vays of making you talk. Ve know you hang out vith a dog and a cat and play billiards with Iranians somewhere in Virginia. That is enough. You can run but you can't hide... Water boarding is not torture. Tickling unto death is not torture. You get my drift? You follow? You think you can keep the secret a secret huh? We are owed by you two. Do you know what torture WE have been through constantly being subject to bombardment with all that errr... interchange between you two for weeks, months at a time - that had doodley squat to do with LUCK? And this is how you repay us!

You most likely have heard of Opus Dei. That is one of our branches, vatican-based. Mossad is another you may know, also vatican-based. Ustashi Jihadis? Kamikaze is the name of our Asian branch, also vatican-based. My point is that Monte Carlo, Dubai, Oahu and especially Vegas, we will be watching you, to protect our interest. Sage will stay under immediate house arrest in this cyberspace here, as insurance, in case you try to fly the coop and do a runner. I'm disappointed it's come to this but your lips just better stay sealed... pal. Our International gang of very bad guys is now activated. Good LUCK. Have a nice day.

 

[aslan]

When ve find you, ve haf vays of making you talk. Ve know you hang out vith a dog and a cat and play billiards with Iranians somewhere in Virginia. That is enough. You can run but you can't hide... Water boarding is not torture. Tickling unto death is not torture. You get my drift? You follow? You think you can keep the secret a secret huh? We are owed by you two. Do you know what torture WE have been through constantly being subject to bombardment with all that errr... interchange between you two for weeks, months at a time - that had doodley squat to do with LUCK? And this is how you repay us!

You most likely have heard of Opus Dei. That is one of our branches, vatican-based. Mossad is another you may know, also vatican-based. Ustashi Jihadis? Kamikaze is the name of our Asian branch, also vatican-based. My point is that Monte Carlo, Dubai, Oahu and especially Vegas, we will be watching you, to protect our interest. Sage will stay under immediate house arrest in this cyberspace here, as insurance, in case you try to fly the coop and do a runner. I'm disappointed it's come to this but your lips just better stay sealed... pal. Our International gang of very bad guys is now activated. Good LUCK. Have a nice day.

Lucky that Sagefr0g and I will always be one step ahead of you and your bungling associates. You see, we have the advantage of endless, inexhaustible luck on our side. Just when you think you have us, d%mn, that lucky s%m b%tch@! How did they escape??? Our plan was foolproof, was it not??? Yet Sagefr0g and Aslan just seemed to vaporize before us. Those lucky SOBs! I'll be looking forward to seeing you in MC. You may not see me, but I will see you.
:laugh: