My final conclusion on card-counting

[JulieCA]

This thread has been a very interesting read.

If there's one thing I've learned from reading the blackjack books and these forums - playing blackjack for a living is hard work. I've run my own business and basically - y'all work as hard as I did when I was doing it. Long and odd hours, demanding and frequently unreasonable clients (pit bosses), whiny and difficult employees and contractors (other players) and no-pay or late-pay customers (losing streaks). At least if a client didn't pay, I could send them to collections - which is the same as gambling.

I don't delude myself that I'm even suited for anything more than trying to play with as much of an advantage as possible. There's no way I'd try and do it for any kind of a living - or even a second job.

Now, if I could only figure out how to control the cards in the shoe with my mind.... :laugh:

 

[psyduck]

This thread has been a very interesting read.

At least if a client didn't pay, I could send them to collections - which is the same as gambling.

What was your win rate and standard deviation?

 

[godfather246]

[I]

Hi everyone, i introduced myself to counting just over a year ago and spent just over 400 hours counting last year, as well as maybe another 200 hours of practicing, studying and mathematical modelling. I have now decided to stop my venture into this, as there are more profitable ventures for me to pursue!

I found this forum very very helpful in my journey and wanted to say thanks to all of those who were willing to share some of their knowledge. For people starting out in counting I thought I would post my conclusions for stopping:

Conclusions

1. It is definitely possible to make money by counting cards. The requirements are that the player completes some study and practice, has a sufficient bankroll and finds good playing conditions. 1.5 units per hour is a good aim. But this doesnt allow for travel time or travel costs!
2. Some people will be better suited to card counting than others. People with a good memory, good and fast basic mathematical skills, and who have a great discipline and persistence will be better suited to counting.
3. In terms of bankroll, multiply your standard bet by 1,000 to determine your required bankroll. Thus if you are looking to make $7.50 an hour then you require a $5 unit and a $5,000 bankroll. For $75/hour a $50,000 roll and for $150/hr a $100,000 bankroll.
4. Preferrably card counters should be living in places where there are numerous casinos within easy travel distance - this reduces travel costs and allows the player to play for more hours across a range of casinos every week.
5. If you are planning to use a large bankroll, say $100k or more, then BJ is not such a good business proposition because it is difficult to consistently clock up large amounts of playing hours without getting barred.
6. Card counting is really only beneficial over the long-run – i.e. hundreds or thousand of playing hours – only then can the player virtually expect to make money.
7. Card counting can be seen as a “last resort” type if there is an abundance of free time with little else productive to do.
8. A lot can be learned from card-counting – probability & statistics theory, understanding of EV, standard deviations, probability models – understanding of long-run expectancy – much of this can be applied in other games of chance or in the financial markets
9. Additionally card counters will learn patience, persistence, memory, chit-chat skills and will have a lot of fun too.
10. Possible opportunities to increase returns are forming black-jack teams and learning more advanced card techniques.
11. A surprising potential "cost" of counting is the impact on the player’s personal life. Over the year of my counting career I found that many of my friendships suffered – partly because I was playing during times when I would have spent time with my friends, and secondly because I was being secretive about something that was quickly becoming a large part of my life.

So whilst I am up some 600+ units after 400+ hours of counting, I am quitting while I am ahead.

Good luck to you all out there!!

[/I]

first of all big congratulations......
Excellent thread. this thread very good for novice card counter.novice CC should read this thread.

 

[Machinist]

Nice post

Thanks all for the good reading. BJ42 i could stand to get ***ked around the suite a few times but 4800 is a little stiff vig. for me. I'm sure that we all could use a little more elaboration on your escapades with this gal. Please share , because for some of us this is as close as we will get this dream !!!!!!!!!!! LOL

Seriously thanks Matt21,
Excellent reading for all. Thanks for the numbers also. Hope you continue on , from what i have experience in this world you are the perfect AP. Numbers, very articulate with your post, asking questions of others. If i were you don't look back man, keep it going!!!!!
With the way the economy is CASH IS KING. I believe we are in for a slow road back to recovery. Get a job and get wacked by our gov hard. A bad day hustling is still way better than any 9 to 5 gig!!

Take Care

Machinist

 

[JulieCA]

What was your win rate and standard deviation?

On collections? :laugh:

Actually, in over 20 years of business, I've only been stiffed 4 times, so my "win rate" is better than many small businesses. I've won every collection judgment and so far collected zilch. In some cases, you just can't get blood from a stone, in others the amount isn't worth the effort to pursue further.

 

[matt21]

I wasn't sure whether to put this post in the Maths/Theory section or on this thread. Since it relates to my actual performances I thought it might be better off here.

I have reviewed my results for the last 120 hours of play. For each session I record my bet ramp, penetration, number of players and number of shoes played. Using this data I can quickly determine the EV and SD for each session, as well as approximation of number of hands played. I record these along with my actual result for the session. In some cases there is a mix of conditions within the session. For example, 6 shoes might be played heads-up and another 4 are played with 1 other player at the table. In this case the EV,SD is calculated individually for each condition.

All this data is contained in the attachment – all the figures are expressed in units. The shoe-SD was calculated with my own probability models however the figures agree with simulations run in CVCX/CVD.

Next I calculated the session-SD by multiplying the shoe-SD by the square root of the number of shoes. If there was a mix of conditions then i squared the SD of each condition set to get the variance, and then took the square root of the sum of the variances to get the session-SD.

Finally I squared the session-SD to get session-variances, then summed all the variances and then took the square root of that sum – producing a 120-hr-SD based on actual playing conditions.

Example/Illustration
Session 332 – Condition1: EV/Shoe – 0.43 units, SD/shoe 18.26 units, SD (3 shoes) 31.63 units, EV (3 shoes) 1.3 units
Session 332 – Condition2: EV/Shoe – 0.59 units, SD/shoe 22.08 units, SD (5 shoes) 49.38 units, EV (5 shoes) 2.97 units
Session-SD for Session 332: Sqrt (31.63^2 + 49.38^2) = 58.64 units
Session-EV = 1.3+2.97= 4.27 units

Eventually I bundle all the session together. So for #332 I take 58.64^2 and add it to all the squared SD figures for all the other sessions. For the 120 hours, my EV was 413 units. I calculated the SD as 660 units. My actual result was a win of 712.1 units.

Question 1: Does it sound like I have made any mistakes in my mathematical approach?

Question 2: Using the EV and SD I have calculated that there is a 25% chance of me breaking even or losing money (in MS Excel I did =normdist(0 units, 413 units, 660 units, TRUE) – i.e. i would make money three out of four months and lose money once in four months but my monthly EV would be 413 units i.e. EV of 1652 units in four months. Is this correct?

Question 3: How do I calculate my N0 in this situation? I know how to calculate N0 when the session conditions are identical but not in this given scenario. What is a good guideline for N0 for professional players? Should I be targeting N0 in terms of hours or hands? And what values of N0 should i be aiming for in either case?

Question 4: Over the 120 hours I played 56 sessions – in only 3 of these sessions was the actual result more than one standard deviation away from the session EV. I had thought that about 32% of sessions (say about 16) should be more than one standard deviation from the session EV. Does this throw doubt onto the accuracy of the calculated SD figures?

Question 4A: My actual performance this year has been very positive. But I guess this can attributed to short term fluctuation. But the only losing month that I had was in which I tried a specific anti-heat betting strategy (although CVD gave me theoretical returns similar to what i normally get, I got slaughtered at the tables). But nevertheless, do these actual returns throw doubt on the correctness of the SD calculations?
Month Hours Units
1 46 50
2 59 198
3 68 258
4 18 98
5 38 -178
6 60 455
7 39 300

Question 5: How does my 75% probability of profit (three months out of 4) based on 120 hours (or 24000 hands) compare with the probability of profit of other AP’s?

I know it would be difficult to play 120 hours a month – firstly because of the increased casino heat exposure but secondly because it would be difficult practically (let alone emotionally!) – the most I have played in a month was 92 hours and that was hard going (I don’t know how kewljason does it – respect!!). But let’s even if i managed to play only 3 sets of 120 hours a year, i.e. 360 hours then my profitability of profit would be a whopping 86%. Question 5A: That 86% sounds very good to me! Is this on par with semi-pro/pro AP’s out there?


I think it’s important to weigh the probability of profit up against other business opportunities where although the return is lower, the consistency of returns is much better. The other idea i get from this analysis is that it's time for me to move 'beyond counting'.

Apologies for this long post – I do find it very helpful to post like this because it helps me to clarify (and spill) my thoughts and really reflect on what has happened to date. Hopefully it will help some other people too or at least give them some new ideas/perspectives.

Additionally learning all this EV and SD business has brought me a long way in evaluating other business opportunities – extremely useful principle!

Effectively I now meander through life looking for positive EV situations!!

Look forward to any comments that people may have!

Matt :joker:

 

[kewljason]

Congrats matt! Thrilled to see that you are doing so well. And to think it was only 9 months ago that you started this thread and were throwing in the towel. Quiting while still ahead I beleive was your terminology.

Two items struck me about your post.

1.) 120 hours (24000 hands) You are averaging 200 hands per hour? How on earth are you pulling that off. I know once in a while I may get 200 hands when playing heads up, but for me on average my hands per hour are way less than that. again would love to know how you do so.

2.) It appears you keep track of results by shoe. I did that as well a few years ago, but with my style of play, bailing early when the count goes south, I had some shoes that were only 2 or 3 hands. Something about that didn't seem right to me. Counting 2 hands played as a shoe. That is when I began keeping results by estimating number of hands played per hour. I guess it doesnt really matter. Any method will still produce an average, thus negating the extremes.

As for the hour per month. I only do it because I have to. Sometimes 30 hours a week can be taxing. especially when you are playing on the run and on the move and losing. In a different thread this week one of the new guys questioned whether 30 hours a week was a fulltime player. OMG. he should know that to get in 30 hours, with scouting and table hopping is way more work than when I used to put in an overtime week of 50 hours at my last job.

Again, congrats and continued success to you.

 

[matt21]

1.) 120 hours (24000 hands) You are averaging 200 hands per hour? How on earth are you pulling that off. I know once in a while I may get 200 hands when playing heads up, but for me on average my hands per hour are way less than that. again would love to know how you do so.

hmmm, i will PM you on that one

2.) It appears you keep track of results by shoe. I did that as well a few years ago, but with my style of play, bailing early when the count goes south, I had some shoes that were only 2 or 3 hands. Something about that didn't seem right to me. Counting 2 hands played as a shoe. That is when I began keeping results by estimating number of hands played per hour. I guess it doesnt really matter. Any method will still produce an average, thus negating the extremes.

I generally play-all - thus 1 shoe equals an entire shoe. On the rare occasion I will wong out when it gets really negative - in that case i also count it as one shoe since the EV of the standard shoe assumes play-all - thus by wonging out i am getting an EV at least equal to the standard theoretical EV. On the rare occasion this will occur about 50-60% through the shoe.
I agree, in your situation, the number of hands sounds like the more suitable approach! In my situation, I find using the number of shoes is ideal for tracking my EV.

As for the hour per month. I only do it because I have to. Sometimes 30 hours a week can be taxing. especially when you are playing on the run and on the move and losing. In a different thread this week one of the new guys questioned whether 30 hours a week was a fulltime player. OMG. he should know that to get in 30 hours, with scouting and table hopping is way more work than when I used to put in an overtime week of 50 hours at my last job.

Yes! Yes! Yes! Once you take into account travel-time, down-time, breaks etc - clocking up 30 hours in a week across different joints is an achievement!

Good luck to you and hope we can chat sometime soon,
Matt

 

[matt21]

Finally another stint in gambling mecca of Las Vegas! Will be here for a 2 weeks.

If anyone is around here and would like to meet up and talk some blackjack then PM me! Would be great to swap some stories.

Good luck at the tables,
Matt

 

[matt21]

Hi everyone, i introduced myself to counting just over a year ago and spent just over 400 hours counting last year, as well as maybe another 200 hours of practicing, studying and mathematical modelling. I have now decided to stop my venture into this, as there are more profitable ventures for me to pursue!

I found this forum very very helpful in my journey and wanted to say thanks to all of those who were willing to share some of their knowledge. For people starting out in counting I thought I would post my conclusions for stopping:

Conclusions

1. It is definitely possible to make money by counting cards. The requirements are that the player completes some study and practice, has a sufficient bankroll and finds good playing conditions. 1.5 units per hour is a good aim. But this doesnt allow for travel time or travel costs!
2. Some people will be better suited to card counting than others. People with a good memory, good and fast basic mathematical skills, and who have a great discipline and persistence will be better suited to counting.
3. In terms of bankroll, multiply your standard bet by 1,000 to determine your required bankroll. Thus if you are looking to make $7.50 an hour then you require a $5 unit and a $5,000 bankroll. For $75/hour a $50,000 roll and for $150/hr a $100,000 bankroll.
4. Preferrably card counters should be living in places where there are numerous casinos within easy travel distance - this reduces travel costs and allows the player to play for more hours across a range of casinos every week.
5. If you are planning to use a large bankroll, say $100k or more, then BJ is not such a good business proposition because it is difficult to consistently clock up large amounts of playing hours without getting barred.
6. Card counting is really only beneficial over the long-run – i.e. hundreds or thousand of playing hours – only then can the player virtually expect to make money.
7. Card counting can be seen as a “last resort” type if there is an abundance of free time with little else productive to do.
8. A lot can be learned from card-counting – probability & statistics theory, understanding of EV, standard deviations, probability models – understanding of long-run expectancy – much of this can be applied in other games of chance or in the financial markets
9. Additionally card counters will learn patience, persistence, memory, chit-chat skills and will have a lot of fun too.
10. Possible opportunities to increase returns are forming black-jack teams and learning more advanced card techniques.
11. A surprising potential "cost" of counting is the impact on the player’s personal life. Over the year of my counting career I found that many of my friendships suffered – partly because I was playing during times when I would have spent time with my friends, and secondly because I was being secretive about something that was quickly becoming a large part of my life.

So whilst I am up some 600+ units after 400+ hours of counting, I am quitting while I am ahead.

Good luck to you all out there!!

Well, close to another whole year has passed since that post. Hopefully some people, especially those just getting into counting, have found the thread a little helpful.

Over the year my view on my earlier conclusions hasn't changed except that given the right conditions I would now say that it's possible to make up to 3 units an hour just from straight counting. All the other points, including the issue of often leading a double-life and some social isolation, are IMHO all still true.

Certainly taking into account the large swings one can expect, counting is a tough way to make money, and most likely only worthwhile if you ahve a good bankroll behind you.

So now after 800 hours of counting and it actually being my main source of income for the past year, I will most likely stop counting and thanks to the encouragement of some of the members of this board, get into other advantage play.

A big thank-you to all the help from everyone on the forum here.

 

[kewljason]

Good luck with your new direction, matt. 3 units per hour sounds pretty good to me. I wish I was making that. My average is somewhat less that that at 2.93 units per/100 hands played. (I dont keep track of hours) I know I average less that 100 hands per hour, probably 80ish so, my estimated units per hour is in the 2.4 range. I think I play a smaller spread than you though.

At any rate, there is a great deal to be learned from this thread and I thank you for sharing your results and thoughts along the way. This thread should serve as a very valuable reference for players both new and experienced for some time.

 

[Friday]

I read Mat21's discussion about his counting adventures and I was a bit surprised to the level of secrecy he takes it in keeping it fully from friends and family. I would never discuss money with friends, losses or gains, or even normal business, but is there really an issue with your friends and family knowing that you know how to get the most out of Black Jack games you do play?

 

[matt21]

I read Mat21's discussion about his counting adventures and I was a bit surprised to the level of secrecy he takes it in keeping it fully from friends and family. I would never discuss money with friends, losses or gains, or even normal business, but is there really an issue with your friends and family knowing that you know how to get the most out of Black Jack games you do play?

Here are three good reasons for secrecy:
1. If you are regularly walking around with $20k in cash you want as few people to know this as possible. For some people $20,000 is good justification for colluding into robbing someone.
2. People accidentally tipping off the casino and/or blackmailing with threatening to tell the casinos.
3. Impact on my reputation of being a regular gambler on other business projects - possibly losing your professional credibility.

As a counter/AP your under-cover status is one of your main assets - if your identity is blown and this can happen by just by one single action from one individual - your entire career can be destroyed or take a major dive. You got to protect this part of your business!

 

[elkobar]

Hi, Tribute,
You forgot one other important reason," the sense of personal achievement ", its a lot safer than mountian climbing,
I get a great feeling when I win, because I have for a moment, beaten the system.
Elkobar..

 

[tribute]

Hi, Tribute,
You forgot one other important reason," the sense of personal achievement ", its a lot safer than mountian climbing,
I get a great feeling when I win, because I have for a moment, beaten the system.
Elkobar..

Very similar to my #2 reason.
Isn't that the real attraction to this game? The need to compete. The thrill of overcoming the odds. That feeling when chips are delicately removed from the tray and placed along side those in the circle in front of you. You have out smarted your opponent. You have single-handedly taken on an empire in their own territory and tasted victory.

 

[mikeinjersey]

Matt, I was up a good $20,000 over the summer. (I won on 13 straight sessions)

At that point, I started gettin all cocky & playing more relaxed...heck I even wore old shirts that had holes in them sometimes when playing. (just to be an ass)

Then all of a sudden, this hot dealer I was really into wiped me out completely in 2 days. I should of just dealt with the $5000 I lost initially...and went home and slept on it.. But I didn't. It was like a panic button went off in my head & I had to keep at it. After I lost that $5000, I was betting more aggressively & stupidly to try to get it back quick...and obviously....ending up losing a lot more.

I got about $17,000 of it back over the last month or so...by playing extremely cautiously. Sometimes if i'm just +5 units, i'm out of there.

But I can completely relate to your 'fear' feeling in page 2 or 3 of this thread. That is the worst feeling ever....and i'm still in that very cautiously , scared mentality where I wont let myself bet higher. (even though I really want to deep inside) I still have a mountain to climb, in baby steps.

Are things still going good for ya ? I can also completely relate to the 'work' feeling and how enormously mentally stressful it is at times. I've even felt ill a couple times....and took off a month or so from gambling.

For others out there that are still in debt, but mentally you still feel that rush that you need to get your money back ......yet you know your not a 100% there mentally.....TAKE A BREAK ! You'll love yourself for it after.

 

[matt21]

Are things still going good for ya ?

Things are ok, I am still here, keeping a low profile

Good to hear that you are persisting and putting in the hours. Good luck to you.

 

[mikeinjersey]

Things are ok, I am still here, keeping a low profile

hehe...I know the feeling.

now if I could only find that GPS device on my car.

 

[b jay cobbson]

Matt21..You have a PM from me

Great posting

Cobbson

 

[blackjack101]

New to counting....

Good post, although i disagree with you on a few points:

Your 1.5 unit/hour is a rather very conservative aim, it is also indicating that your are not playing the best games out there. i personally would not chose to play a game where is the expectation is only 1.5 unit/hour. Normally, i would aim for 2.5-3.0 units/hour
400 hours of playing time, is not a lot of hours, it is less than 8 hours a week which is less than half the hours for a part-time job. Yes, granted there is some travel time depending on your location but still that is not a lot of hours. You should be able to rack up more hours easily.

As far as personal life, you don't have to be so serious and so secretive about it. Being AP requires a lot of discipline, but it doesn't mean you can't add some fun to it. You can plan a long weekend with family/friends at a nice casino resort, you can work out a schedule, be able to play 15-20 hours and spend sometime with them.

At the end, playing BJ is just like any other business, you will need to find the thin balance between adapting your lifestyle to your playing and adapting your playing to your lifestyle...

Just wondering, how do you know what your expectation is on any given game?