My final conclusion on card-counting

[matt21]

Just wondering, how do you know what your expectation is on any given game?

A great way to do that is to buy the Casino Verite software - with that you can input variables such as your bet ramp, the house rules, penetration, index plays and so on - and it can then run millions of simulations and indicate the likey win rate and variance for the variables you specified.

You can also build models in Excel to do it to some extent.

 

[rainmanuk]

And the loneliness of it all.

And that is the loneliness you can't explain to anybody else - unless you've been there yourself.

 

[blackjack avenger]

All of You Need to Man Up

Said with all the love in the world. All of the following is assuming one is a skilled player.

I just read the entire thread, why all this Narcissistic handwringing? Matt21 you are way to concerned over what your results are. I see you staring at your sim screen agonizing over what misfortune the next bet will bring like Narcissus staring into the pond. The sims will tell you what you should make moving forward. Quit looking back, your personal play is to small a sample to determine much of anything. Also, as you have mentioned the real world variables make it very difficult to track real play.

Should you play or do something else. It's a fairly easy answer. One needs to make over twice at bj what they would make at a regular job due to the risk. If considering another investment or business opportunity, then you should be able to quantify and compare to bj.

If you are behind in expectation instead of curling up with your inner child go play and get your money back!

If one is unhappy with variance then bet more conservaitvely. Once at a nice level of play and if you want to stay there, then don't raise bets on wins but let the bank grow so you can stay at the level you are happy with

Forget about short term variance. Sim out the variance and ev for a NO and you will know where you will stand in time.

What has Syph stated? 500 hrs to be 90% certain of half of win rate? This is a very good rule of thumb on expectations. Here is a shorter term way to look at expectation and risk. Are you willing to bet $100 for a chance to win a buck in time?

If you must track something figure out the hours to be at some certain % of expectation and count the hours.

CC is a hard way to make easy money? Seriously, standing in Iraq in 120 degrees waiting for an IED to go off next to you is hard. Low level construction and factory work is hard! A nuclear worker in Japan is hard work.

Terrified of barrings?, when a cop pulls you over are you terrified? Then keep all bets below $100. A barring is not as serious as what a soldier, cop, firefighter or nuclear worker in Japan face, including some factory and construction work. Never forget being a CC is legal.

Playing a game for more money then many make working! Oh save me from my bj "mortal coil"

matt21 you seem highly skilled and intelligent you just have to toughen up! This endeavor is not for the faint of heart, especially at higher levels of play.

:joker::whip:
Man, what got into the Avenger!:whip:

 

[gamblingghost]

Said with all the love in the world. All of the following is assuming one is a skilled player.

I just read the entire thread, why all this Narcissistic handwringing? Matt21 you are way to concerned over what your results are. I see you staring at your sim screen agonizing over what misfortune the next bet will bring like Narcissus staring into the pond. The sims will tell you what you should make moving forward. Quit looking back, your personal play is to small a sample to determine much of anything. Also, as you have mentioned the real world variables make it very difficult to track real play.

Should you play or do something else. It's a fairly easy answer. One needs to make over twice at bj what they would make at a regular job due to the risk. If considering another investment or business opportunity, then you should be able to quantify and compare to bj.

If you are behind in expectation instead of curling up with your inner child go play and get your money back!

If one is unhappy with variance then bet more conservaitvely. Once at a nice level of play and if you want to stay there, then don't raise bets on wins but let the bank grow so you can stay at the level you are happy with

Forget about short term variance. Sim out the variance and ev for a NO and you will know where you will stand in time.

What has Syph stated? 500 hrs to be 90% certain of half of win rate? This is a very good rule of thumb on expectations. Here is a shorter term way to look at expectation and risk. Are you willing to bet $100 for a chance to win a buck in time?

If you must track something figure out the hours to be at some certain % of expectation and count the hours.

CC is a hard way to make easy money? Seriously, standing in Iraq in 120 degrees waiting for an IED to go off next to you is hard. Low level construction and factory work is hard! A nuclear worker in Japan is hard work.

Terrified of barrings?, when a cop pulls you over are you terrified? Then keep all bets below $100. A barring is not as serious as what a soldier, cop, firefighter or nuclear worker in Japan face, including some factory and construction work. Never forget being a CC is legal.

Playing a game for more money then many make working! Oh save me from my bj "mortal coil"

matt21 you seem highly skilled and intelligent you just have to toughen up! This endeavor is not for the faint of heart, especially at higher levels of play.

:joker::whip:
Man, what got into the Avenger!:whip:

I know, Your a halves counter, and halves counters gotta be tough!

 

[virtual_gravity]

Thank you for this.
I have much to learn in the way of card counting, but I also just considered dumping the whole thing because honestly, in many respects, it's just not worth it (imo).

My first experience involved going to a casino with my friends with $400, a hi-lo system, 6-deck games, and a bunch of hyped up confidence from the movie "21".

I made -$400!

Glad to hear from someone experienced though, thank you.

 

[blackjack avenger]

Thank you for this.
I have much to learn in the way of card counting, but I also just considered dumping the whole thing because honestly, in many respects, it's just not worth it (imo).

My first experience involved going to a casino with my friends with $400, a hi-lo system, 6-deck games, and a bunch of hyped up confidence from the movie "21".

I made -$400!

Glad to hear from someone experienced though, thank you.

you have such a small amount of money, if you keep playing you are very very likely to lose it all, even if you are the most skilled player ever.

 

[virtual_gravity]

you have such a
s

mall amount of money, if you keep playing you are very very likely to lose it all, even if you are the most skilled player ever.

As I've found

I now know that it should be around 1000 times the base bet or 100 times the minimum bet, and I've heard others. Either way, I should have had somewhere around $5000 at a minimum.

 

[Gamblor]

As I've found

I now know that it should be around 1000 times the base bet or 100 times the minimum bet, and I've heard others. Either way, I should have had somewhere around $5000 at a minimum.

Damn straight. Even playing $10-$15, I frequently drop $400 in a short period of time. It means nothing.

 

[FLASH1296]

virtual_gravity,

You meant 1,000 units (minimum bets) or 100 MAX(imum) bets.

Reasonable benchmarks for a 10-1 spread in a good shoe game, using just Hi-Lo or K.O.

A poor game like 8 decks H17 without Late Surrender and 75% pen would require 40% more.

A great game like a DD game with good rules and > 67% pen' 40% less will be more than adequate.

 

[HitEmHard]

Very Good Information

I am a rookie card counter, been practicing at home for months and only recently started playing in casinos.

Reading this thread made me realize that there are many things I have to learn, as well as have yet to experience.

Thanks for the fantastic thread, I could not have found a better one for my first post

 

[snorky]

OP is my inspiration. This was a great read.

 

[matt21]

I am a rookie card counter, been practicing at home for months and only recently started playing in casinos.

Reading this thread made me realize that there are many things I have to learn, as well as have yet to experience.

Thanks for the fantastic thread, I could not have found a better one for my first post

OP is my inspiration. This was a great read.

Man I am glad that I am inspiring you guys - go out there and count - may positive variance be with you

 

[FrankieT]

Hi everyone, i introduced myself to counting just over a year ago and spent just over 400 hours counting last year, as well as maybe another 200 hours of practicing, studying and mathematical modelling. I have now decided to stop my venture into this, as there are more profitable ventures for me to pursue!

I found this forum very very helpful in my journey and wanted to say thanks to all of those who were willing to share some of their knowledge. For people starting out in counting I thought I would post my conclusions for stopping:

Conclusions

3. In terms of bankroll, multiply your standard bet by 1,000 to determine your required bankroll. Thus if you are looking to make $7.50 an hour then you require a $5 unit and a $5,000 bankroll. For $75/hour a $50,000 roll and for $150/hr a $100,000 bankroll.

Good luck to you all out there!!

One thing i'm not sure I agree on is you not being able to make a decent hrly amount with anything less than $20k BR. If you do your research and play only the top 10% quality games, can get away with an aggressive bet spread, live an area with a lot of casinos so you can move around a lot, you can make a good 12 units an hr ($60+) and higher with a low RoR for a $15k BR or less.

 

[Craps Master]

One thing i'm not sure I agree on is you not being able to make a decent hrly amount with anything less than $20k BR. If you do your research and play only the top 10% quality games, can get away with an aggressive bet spread, live an area with a lot of casinos so you can move around a lot, you can make a good 12 units an hr ($60+) and higher with a low RoR for a $15k BR or less.

Pipe dream.

 

[FrankieT]

One thing i'm not sure I agree on is you not being able to make a decent hrly amount with anything less than $20k BR. If you do your research and play only the top 10% quality games, can get away with an aggressive bet spread, live an area with a lot of casinos so you can move around a lot, you can make a good 12 units an hr ($60+) and higher with a low RoR for a $15k BR or less.

Of course this is if you spread to two hands (increases score by 30%) with aggressive bet spreads and aggressively pursue heads up games (amount of hands you get in can change drastically if one other person is added).

Doing other stupid things like digging into your BR for expenses if it's not replenishable and wasting too much time at tables with 3+ players will obvious cause you to fail.

Not living in an area with lots of casinos and/or not researching and playing only the best games is another thing that will cause you to fail.

Not simming the games you are playing and not having the optimal bet strategy in mind will cause you to fail.

Being a poor actor and sitting there like your asshole is puckered up will cause you to get too much heat; Playing like a drunken, well off fool whose having way too much fun to be concentrating is the way to stick around with bold bet spreads.

 

[Friendo]

If you do your research and play only the top 10% quality games, can get away with an aggressive bet spread, live an area with a lot of casinos so you can move around a lot, you can make a good 12 units an hr ($60+) and higher with a low RoR for a $15k BR or less.

I don't mean to be rude, and I have no problem with you believing this, but I worry that someone with a limited bankroll and no job will be heartened by this.

I have read hundreds of accounts the difficulty of making it on a limited bankroll, and run sim after sim on every sort of scenario, including expenses and replenishability, at several different Kelly ratios.

I currently have a $15K replenishable bankroll, and there's no way I would play green. I could play green by backing my bankroll with my emergency funds, but there is a reason they're called emergency funds; and I have no doubt that I would hit a fluctuation which would hit me for more than $15K.

I'll start playing green when I have a $30K roll - again, that's replenishable at a rate of around $1500/month. Even then, I have no illusions of averaging more than $40/hr. on a bankroll that small.

 

[aslan]

I don't mean to be rude, and I have no problem with you believing this, but I worry that someone with a limited bankroll and no job will be heartened by this.

I have read hundreds of accounts the difficulty of making it on a limited bankroll, and run sim after sim on every sort of scenario, including expenses and replenishability, at several different Kelly ratios.

I currently have a $15K replenishable bankroll, and there's no way I would play green. I could play green by backing my bankroll with my emergency funds, but there is a reason they're called emergency funds; and I have no doubt that I would hit a fluctuation which would hit me for more than $15K.

I'll start playing green when I have a $30K roll - again, that's replenishable at a rate of around $1500/month. Even then, I have no illusions of averaging more than $40/hr. on a bankroll that small.

You're playing it smart. :toast:

 

[noharmnofoul]

I don't mean to be rude, and I have no problem with you believing this, but I worry that someone with a limited bankroll and no job will be heartened by this.

I have read hundreds of accounts the difficulty of making it on a limited bankroll, and run sim after sim on every sort of scenario, including expenses and replenishability, at several different Kelly ratios.

I currently have a $15K replenishable bankroll, and there's no way I would play green. I could play green by backing my bankroll with my emergency funds, but there is a reason they're called emergency funds; and I have no doubt that I would hit a fluctuation which would hit me for more than $15K.

I'll start playing green when I have a $30K roll - again, that's replenishable at a rate of around $1500/month. Even then, I have no illusions of averaging more than $40/hr. on a bankroll that small.

As I read more and more on here and look at people data, I have to agree with you. I'm going to start with a $10k BR and stick to red. I won't move to green action until 25k.(hell, at that point I'd be more than happy with $20/hr) I doubt I'll ever move to black action.

 

[FrankieT]

I don't mean to be rude, and I have no problem with you believing this, but I worry that someone with a limited bankroll and no job will be heartened by this.

I have read hundreds of accounts the difficulty of making it on a limited bankroll, and run sim after sim on every sort of scenario, including expenses and replenishability, at several different Kelly ratios.

I currently have a $15K replenishable bankroll, and there's no way I would play green. I could play green by backing my bankroll with my emergency funds, but there is a reason they're called emergency funds; and I have no doubt that I would hit a fluctuation which would hit me for more than $15K.

I'll start playing green when I have a $30K roll - again, that's replenishable at a rate of around $1500/month. Even then, I have no illusions of averaging more than $40/hr. on a bankroll that small.

Well you're not finding the games that i'm finding in that case. If you find the right games and get the table solo, you can get an ev of $100 an hr with a 2% half kelly RoR with 10k - yes games like this still exist with $100 max bets (spread to two hands). That's optimal on an empty table of course and you're more likely to get $50-$80 because of players coming in and out.


What types of games are you simming and what kind of bet spread?
I do 1-20 bet spread on two hands - $5 to $100 - and get away with it because the drunk act works great and I use camo at the right times, but only at opportune times.

I DID mention that YOU WILL FAIL IF THIS BR IS CUT INTO FOR EXPENSES, OR WITHOUT IT BEING REPLENISHABLE. So I AM not saying you can do it without a job or some sort of regular paycheck (welfare check or disability). Read my last post a little more closely.

 

[snorky]

I'm starting to keep accurate records of my plays in August. From looking at the numbers, I do believe a small bankroll of even $10,000 is enough to pass by blackjack. Of course it would have to be replenishable and only as a hobby, not a job. :laugh: sorta... (well, I'm still deciding if I want to try and take big shots with a bigger roll in juicier games) Keep in mind I usually play rated, so I receive somewhat generous comps. I've come to the conclusion that as a red chipper comps add A LOT to my overall win rate. For instance, I received $150 and $50 comps in gas every week for 5 weeks in one store. The only issue is that store is 4.5 hours away, which I believe is still worth the $15+/hr drive since I have nothing better to do. I also don't think most casino care about my $5 to $100 spread or spreading to two hands. The rules are not liberal enough that they probably believe most amateur card counters will inevitably (and respectfully so) fail. It is probably blatantly obvious to them who the counters and ploppies are too after hitting the store for a while. Also if I lose the privilege to play one mediocre store, I still have plenty of others nearby. I'm not suggesting to be blatantly obvious though, but my point is I don't believe some casinos care enough about a red chipper.

The closest casino from where I'm from is a 1.5 hour drive, which means an expense of $20 in gas and $10 in toll fees. To cut that cost, I decided to take shuttles/buses provided by the casino which only costs $7-$10. I also receive $15-25 in free play/slots every time I take the bus, so instead of spending $30 driving, I make $10 sleeping (a difference of $40!)

Here's my August Progress.

I am looking towards a fun August grind, which is starting out great. Comments are appreciated!