the effect of doubling and splitting on a positive progression
In progression betting you trade a larger average loss per hand for a greater amount of expected deviation from this higher loss amount. The amount of increase in your bet size relative to the frequency you make each bet determines how much the increase in your expected loss per hand is.
The nature of blackjack is that the expected return varies from hand to hand depending on deck composition. In most games higher betting levels only hurts you rate of return and cannt be mathematically justified. In blackjack this is not true, if you bet higher when you have an advantage the increase in bet size is mathematically demanded.
But random bet fluctuations tend to hurt you even more in blackjack because by basing your bet size by whether you won or lost the last hand, no matter which has just happened, has you betting your highest bets in the worst conditions on the average. Good conditions are rare with shorter winning and losing streaks!!!!! These events dont have a high enough correlation with playing conditions to be of any help.
Positive progressions(bet more after a win) you trade off a quicker short term losses rate to be occasionally supplemented by larger wins. The sum of the trade off is of course negative as is the case with all progression systems, UNLESS YOUR HIGHER BETS HAVE A BETTER EXPECTED RETURN THAN YOUR LOWER SIZE BETS. IF THEY HAVE A POSITIVE EXPECTED RETURN YOU MAY EVEN MOVE INTO AN ADVANTAGE SITUATION.
With a positive progression in blackjack the affect of doubling your bet on a double down or split must be considered. Lets assume you have won 5 hands in a row and you are about to reap a rare large return on your trade off. The next hand you double and/or split and the dealer hits out to a 21(it happens a lot as the count gets more negative but could happen anytime) and you lose enough to give back that rare gain and more. Not a good trade.
On a positive count the dealer has just as good a chance as you do to get the good hands so streaks are generally shorter. He has to hit his stiffs, you can choose to deviate from basic strategy knowing the increased likelihood of busting makes it no longer the correct decision.
The nature of blackjack doesnt lend itself well to progression betting unless the bet variations and decisions made playing correlates to the the deck composition. Trying to ensure this correlation should be the ONLY concern as you ponder your questions. If you can do this without blowing your progression bettor cover you are in the catbirds seat.
In progression betting you trade a larger average loss per hand for a greater amount of expected deviation from this higher loss amount. The amount of increase in your bet size relative to the frequency you make each bet determines how much the increase in your expected loss per hand is.
The nature of blackjack is that the expected return varies from hand to hand depending on deck composition. In most games higher betting levels only hurts you rate of return and cannt be mathematically justified. In blackjack this is not true, if you bet higher when you have an advantage the increase in bet size is mathematically demanded.
But random bet fluctuations tend to hurt you even more in blackjack because by basing your bet size by whether you won or lost the last hand, no matter which has just happened, has you betting your highest bets in the worst conditions on the average. Good conditions are rare with shorter winning and losing streaks!!!!! These events dont have a high enough correlation with playing conditions to be of any help.
Positive progressions(bet more after a win) you trade off a quicker short term losses rate to be occasionally supplemented by larger wins. The sum of the trade off is of course negative as is the case with all progression systems, UNLESS YOUR HIGHER BETS HAVE A BETTER EXPECTED RETURN THAN YOUR LOWER SIZE BETS. IF THEY HAVE A POSITIVE EXPECTED RETURN YOU MAY EVEN MOVE INTO AN ADVANTAGE SITUATION.
With a positive progression in blackjack the affect of doubling your bet on a double down or split must be considered. Lets assume you have won 5 hands in a row and you are about to reap a rare large return on your trade off. The next hand you double and/or split and the dealer hits out to a 21(it happens a lot as the count gets more negative but could happen anytime) and you lose enough to give back that rare gain and more. Not a good trade.
On a positive count the dealer has just as good a chance as you do to get the good hands so streaks are generally shorter. He has to hit his stiffs, you can choose to deviate from basic strategy knowing the increased likelihood of busting makes it no longer the correct decision.
The nature of blackjack doesnt lend itself well to progression betting unless the bet variations and decisions made playing correlates to the the deck composition. Trying to ensure this correlation should be the ONLY concern as you ponder your questions. If you can do this without blowing your progression bettor cover you are in the catbirds seat.
