Not doubling against dealer 2,3,4 at high count.

[UK-21]

"If it looks like a duck, walks like a duck, quacks like a duck... "

....it is still not psyduck!

You do not seem to get my point. Using a smaller max bet and not hesitating to double already lowered variance.

Just my opinion. By no means am I pretending to be an expert like you.

I am proposing using a smaller bet . . . on certain plays, 8% of the time. But not on all plays 100% of the time as you're suggesting I should. So my EV will be better in the former than the latter although let's accept that the variance will be the same (don't know that for a fact but for the sake of your response let's say it is).

Does that help to put in perspective the "just have a lower unit value and stick to your ramp" responses?

As to the lower EV = increased risk of ruin, that is correct although with lower variance I think the instance of it actually happening will take longer to kick in.

 

[ycming]

Except that if you reduce EV by lowering your bet, overall risk, as measured by standard deviation, generally decreases, not increases.

"Generally" Decreases ? What do you mean by generally?

Why is risk determined by how much it varies from the average ?

Ming

 

[UK-21]

If you lower your bets (unit value), and therefore bet less overall for a given number of hands, the standard deviation (variance) on the total bet amount made will reduce as well

But if you reduce your bet, and therefore the EV of the game falls, there will be less retained profit available to play with, and therefore with less to play with the RoR will increase (assuming the unit value, and all other aspects of play, remain constant).

So there are two opposing dynamics to consider. But bearing in mind the return on any game (say two units an hour) will always be less than the potential variance of that game (three Std Devs' equivalent), the reduction in variance will be more significant than the loss of return and increase in RoR. So to reduce unit value is good advice if you want to reduce the variance of a game.

But I reckon to reduce the unit value (effectively by hitting rather than doubling) on certain hands at certain times is a compromise between reducing variance and maximising EV. Others disagree. Having said that, nobody has yet offered any alternative calculations as to what the cost of doing so might be.