OK, here's my voodoo system

[Kasi]

maybe someone else will answer. All I was inquiring about was, if Oscar's grind has a negative overall EV (which it certainly does) than how can you say that you have no doubt someone could make $25,000 to $30,000 a year?

Well really the only question is how much bankroll would be required to make that goal very probable.

Later, one can debate what is the best use of that many dollars.

 

[Knox]

What about combining Oscar's grind with some tweaks based on sound card counting techniques? Let's say you only play quality low stakes DD games, $5-$10 min, with great conditions such as S17, DAS, DOA, house advantage 0.20%, or at worst 0.40% due to H17. Also add in about the first 30 most common index plays. I thought it was was possible to grind out a very small positive EV using just index plays and flat betting, at least on the 0.20% game I described. One last twist is that you never increase your bet unless the TC is +1 or greater.

What say ye? Would the betting restriction defeat the purpose of the progression? I'm still trying to figure out the progression itself, so I can't grasp the impact of my counting enhancements until I get a better handle on that. My gut says that you would have a positive long-term EV, but possibly much lower than using a straight counting system based on Kelly betting.

 

[Kasi]

My gut says that you would have a positive long-term EV, but possibly much lower than using a straight counting system based on Kelly betting.

Well, first of all, Oscar's Grind, like so many systems, seems to usually be applied to even-bet situations.

Anyway, if you have quality DD games like that, there's money to be made!

Don't kill the goose that lays golden eggs - consider just a 1-2 spread. And I don't mean $5-$10 with the roll you're playing to.

Sacrifice win rate for longevity.