Poll on counting strategies
- Thread starter BlackjackDan
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zengrifter
Banned
Thats not, I beleive, what Sage means by FUZZY - I think he means fuzy on the indices. zgKasi said:
sagefr0g
Well-Known Member
Kasi said:
yeah i knew that: http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showpost.php?p=32765&postcount=1of course you know betting properly, spread and all is one of the biggies as to what gets you the money or keeps it from evaporating.
nearly two years at a relatively high pitch i might add. three or four days a week of play (but often only an hour long session). i believe i actually came pretty close to my N0 .Kasi said:
it was my hitting a significant negative fluctuation that was the empatise for taking another look at my game plan and playing aspirations.
i think this link sums up my reason for wanting to find another way:
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showpost.php?p=34098&postcount=51
i'm no spring chicken. the effort, time and expense that is expended counting as required in the orthodox sense is fairly rigorous for the ole boy when at the tables. makes it kind of hard to watch the 'girl at third base taking her shirt off' or the cocktail waitress jiggling off down the ilse after my free bottle of water.
where i'm at now this fuzzy counting thing is only in the experimental point for now. if i become dissatisfyed with it i can always go back to good ole hi/lo.
whats exasperating for me with regard to the approach is that there is no way to simmulate it.
well anyway it's a fun kind of an approach. i'm also toying with another element that fits in with the fuzzy count that i think of as a count within the count. it has to do with the rate of change of the RC. the idea being the greater the rate of change the more you might want to think about varying your bet. this is an area that i fear may be flirting with the gambler's fallacy but again i have no way of knowing as it can't be simulated as far as i can tell. but it makes sense to me that there is an underlying significance to the degree of the rate of change of the RC when i relate to my many, many hours of practicing counting down decks and how that goes. plus the realization that a given pack starts out with symmetry then may appear to lose it only to reclaim it. this i think is kind of hinted at by Abdul Jalib when he discuss's his True Count Theroem.
jetace
Well-Known Member
I was playing HO2 until coming to this site. Upon your advice I started trying Zen using my HO2 indices, and low and behold I started to hit more of the positive side of variance. I'm positive my errors with the ace side count caused me to bet inaccurately, so I have no second thoughts about switching.zengrifter said:
sagefr0g
Well-Known Member
about this some "feel" as to how the last 6 rounds went thing, let me try and explain somewhat.Kasi said:
have you ever play all and counted very many shoes?
well if you have then while playing through those negative portions of the shoe i doubt if you could have escaped the thoughtful realization of just how stacked against the player the game of blackjack is, especially when the true count is negative. you sit there playing basic strategy against the dealer as she pulls off one mindless winning hand after another just by hitting till she gets at least seventeen. the more you play under these conditions while counting (orthodox) the more you get a feel for how it is your going to lose
but this same phenomenon of feeling/understanding is true for the orthodox counter while they are playing during positive counts. you get a sense a feeling and understanding in an experiential sense that hey i got a half ass chance of comming out ahead here.
and yes i believe there is this feeling/understanding by degree as an experienced counter watches the rounds of a shoe.
blackjack is about as forgiving a game as ladyluck would have it be
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Yeah counting does take it out of u. Especially the boring 8D's I'm usually playing.sagefr0g said:about this some "feel" as to how the last 6 rounds went thing, let me try and explain somewhat.
have you ever play all and counted very many shoes?
well if you have then while playing through those negative portions of the shoe i doubt if you could have escaped the thoughtful realization of just how stacked against the player the game of blackjack is, especially when the true count is negative. you sit there playing basic strategy against the dealer as she pulls off one mindless winning hand after another just by hitting till she gets at least seventeen. the more you play under these conditions while counting (orthodox) the more you get a feel for how it is your going to lose
but this same phenomenon of feeling/understanding is true for the orthodox counter while they are playing during positive counts. you get a sense a feeling and understanding in an experiential sense that hey i got a half ass chance of comming out ahead here.
and yes i believe there is this feeling/understanding by degree as an experienced counter watches the rounds of a shoe.
blackjack is about as forgiving a game as ladyluck would have it be
Sometimes I'm amazed how much I win, or my wife next to me does, during negative counts and vice-versa for positive counts. And sometimes it works out like u say. Sometimes I get mad because I feel a winning streak coming, and it does, but I'm still betting min lol. There I am getting all pissed and I just won 5 hands in a row lol. Othertimes I feel it, bet a little bigger, and get quashed lol.
I usually have an idea of how many extra units I've picked up on bigger bets and use that as a guide to achieve my incredibly modest goals.
But I'm glad ur trying stuff out and having fun with it. So keep it up!
But if she's cute over at 3rd, time to fuzzy count lol.
sagefr0g
Well-Known Member
you have a relatively conservative betting scheme. i can definately see where counting and employing a conservative bet ramp against an eight deck game would really take it out of you. i employed a 1:8 spread (mostly six deck) for most of my two years of play. the overall results came out around $30 per hour for me. so ovbiously i experienced a great deal of luck. but even so i came to the point that the degree of effort i was putting in relative to the actual EV realized was becomming frustrating and scary for me. scary because i realized the luck part could easily swing the other way and put me where i should be EV-wise or worse. when i did hit a significant negative fluctuation is when i decided something had to give. so thats where i come up with this fuzzy count thing.Kasi said:
yeah i've experienced those types of feeling also. the only time (hopefully) that i would act on such intuits would be marginal siutations. feelings with respect to the game is really not a good desciption for what i'm trying to do with this fuzzy counting thing. a qualitative understanding of the value (EV) of the shoe at any given round of that shoe would be a better description.Kasi said:
a few analogies might be in order. just as we can go outside and look at the sky and feel the air and say to ourselvs i think it's gonna rain or i doubt if it'll rain, well as a result of my experience i believe i can watch the cards as the rounds go by and get a good qualitative sense of the degree of the value of the shoe at those points. i'm finding that i can develop that skill by practice with cvbj. admittedly i can only come up with antedodal experiences because of the limited amount of computer practice i can extend. but i believe the practice of what i'm trying to do is sharpening the skill involved. additionally i'm basing my decisions and actions with respect to the skill i'm trying to achieve on the orthodox counting experience that i have and on my understanding of advantage play gleaned from reading and study. another analogy. shooting free shots in basketball. you know you gotta shoot that ball just right to get that baby to swish that hoop. now you could construct a robotic arm guided by a computer to put that ball through the hoop every time no problem. but you can also train your self as an ordinary human being to shoot the ball through the hoop with very near the same rate of success as the machine could do it. so instead of trying to play blackjack like a computer i'm trying to play it with skill based on what a computer would do minus the precise counting and replacing the counting with observation, evaluation, judgement, thinking and decision making. actions that are more natural, comfortable and fun for me.
speaking of modest goals, well i've never really achieved any of the big scores that we all dream about and a few achieve but my enjoyment of the game has always been dependent upon getting those benjamins. but i believe if this fuzzy counting thing works out for me i'd be happy more often to just finish some play with my shirt on my back when i was ready to leave. but the gal over at third i guess i'd be hoping she'd lose her shirtKasi said:
I wouldn't even call it a scheme lol.sagefr0g said:
I just use the count to make a 2-3 unit bet once in a while and have some fun with index plays and piss a few players off at the table.
$30/hour sounds pretty good to me - what was that 2-3 units/hr? Isn't that about right what u would expect?
With the counting skills u have - take a flier at Vegas or Reno. Maybe some DD games - they are so easy to count it's ridiculous. And if u blow it, thy're shuffling in 3 minutes anyway. I really enjoyed them in Tahoe. Just bone up and commit a little money.
Of course u can't sim what u're doing since u can't define it lol.
Brock Windsor
Well-Known Member
Ko/tko
Primarily backcount and use KO with full matrix from the book, But will convert to TKO with Hi-Lo indicies -4 to wong in early during a shoe or scale my bet back during high counts late in the shoe.
Seriously considering Red 7. Only play 8deck DOA, DAS, 75%pen
Primarily backcount and use KO with full matrix from the book, But will convert to TKO with Hi-Lo indicies -4 to wong in early during a shoe or scale my bet back during high counts late in the shoe.
Seriously considering Red 7. Only play 8deck DOA, DAS, 75%pen
sagefr0g
Well-Known Member
this on a eight deck game right? are you playing all? i'd expect overall loss at that rate.Kasi said:
depending on how you look at it it's an average of six units/hour. but i considered my unit my minimum bet which was also the table minimum ($5). so i guess i wasn't properly interpreting what my true unit was. from the proper orthodox perspective i think my unit would have actually been $10 which i'd of been normally betting at tc=2 in play (ie. that's just how i did it) so if you look at it like that yeah about 3 units/hour. so looking at it like that i suppose my results were pretty close to expectation.Kasi said:
i'd very much enjoy giving Reno and Vegas a shot especially the DDgames.Kasi said:
i'd have to practice one heck of lot though as i've only played mainly six deck games. only thing about Reno and Vegas that would put me off would be having to play at higher minimum tables. it's just against my nature to start out risking what to me is a relatively large amount of money.
yeah i need to work on defining the fuzzy count better. perhaps it would help it's performance.
BlackjackDan
Member
Just curious about what you mean by TKO as apposed to just KO?Brock Windsor said:
supercoolmancool
Well-Known Member
TKO stands for True Count Knock-Out. So it is KO with true count conversions.BlackjackDan said:
harpomarks
Member
I use hi-lo and I’m working on figuring out my correct bet sizing right now. Since I’m not doing this for a living it is more a comfort level thing.
Yes mostly 8 deck. I think u think i want to win a couple units an hour or something. I don't. I'm strictly recreational and am happy breaking even. Pretty much for the reasons u suggested. As little as I play I just don't want the variance and have fun counting in my own way knowing it will not overcome the house edge in the long run. But I'm not going to live that long so I don't care. I just know how little it takes to break even. Sometimes I go wild on the last day usually blow the + units I've picked up by then lol.sagefr0g said:
I don't know - I'd say your min bet is your unit but I guess there are different ways of doing it. I'd guess every game might have a different minimum unit with the same roll depending how u r playing it etc. I mean depending on ur ramp etc you'll have a different avg bet. Surely one would have a different unit entering a shoe at TC+3 compared to +TC2.
In Tahoe they had 6 or 8D shoes for $3/hand. During the day there were $10 tables of SD & DD. I wanted to go back there this year but instead we're going to crappy Vegas lol. I probably would have learned Omega II or something for the fewer decks - is that a better system than Hi-Lo for DD guys?
And I wonder how much "mechanic" dealers can basically cheat you. Probably paranoia but nonetheless. I'd rather play against a RNG. I'm sure they don't bother at my bet level but I wonder. It just wouldn't be very hard to deal seconds and I doubt if one could tell.
Definitely give it a try sometime!