Professional Roulette Prediction

[Jack_Black]

Now I’m not familiar with Scott’s system, but I would have to assume that it involves betting on 3-5 numbers per spin. If he’s doing section shooting then it might be more, but 3-5 is probably a good compromise. Spreading your money around does lower the variance somewhat, but under regular (non-advantage) conditions......

Let's assume I'm talking about advantage play conditions only for the theme of this thread.

I would assume there will be section eliminating instead of section shooting. House edge for the game starts at 8.57% on a 00 wheel. That is 35 to 1 payout on a wheel with 38 possible outcomes. If it is indeed possible to eliminate sections of the wheel that will be struck, then one would only need to eliminate the possibility of just 4 numbers from coming up to gain an advantage. Player gains an advantage of 2.9% from that! So if one placed a bet on 34 numbers that he/she knew were going to strike, they could grind out a 1 unit edge with no variance! Of course, this is easier said than done.

I think I should take this post down. anyone objects to this posting, PM me.

 

[Sonny]

House edge for the game starts at 8.57% on a 00 wheel. That is 35 to 1 payout on a wheel with 38 possible outcomes.

The house edge is 5.26%, so that makes things easier right off the bat. Eliminating 2 numbers gives you a fair game and 3 numbers will give you a 2.86% advantage. But how many numbers do you think you can cover during the last 2-3 revolutions of the ball? Therein lies the wheelwatcher's lament.

I think I should take this post down. anyone objects to this posting, PM me.

I think it's fine. It's nothing we haven't discussed before, and all of it has been in print for many years. As long as we aren't discussing the actual prediction techniques we should be cool.

-Sonny-

 

[Jack_Black]

The house edge is 5.26%, so that makes things easier right off the bat. Eliminating 2 numbers gives you a fair game and 3 numbers will give you a 2.86% advantage. But how many numbers do you think you can cover during the last 2-3 revolutions of the ball? Therein lies the wheelwatcher's lament.

Why and how do you come up with the formula for that? I used 38/35. I thought I could fix it by using 38/36 but that makes it 5.5%

Now, I was just giving an example of how to gain an edge in section eliminating but that problem can be remedied in two ways. 1. Touchbet systems. can you press buttons on a touchscreen pretty fast? therein lies the lament of the casinos trying to thwart past posters with electronic roulette betting systems. Ironic that the casino would be helping the Legal APs with their style of play. 2. Eliminate half of the wheel where you think the ball might fall into. That give you less bets to put down, and about a 50% edge!!!

 

[Sonny]

Why and how do you come up with the formula for that? I used 38/35. I thought I could fix it by using 38/36 but that makes it 5.5%

EV = Proability1 * Payout1 + Probability2 + Payout2 ...
EV = (1/38) * 35 + (37/38) * -1

In fact, the house edge for almost every roulette bet is 5.26%.

http://wizardofodds.com/roulette

but that problem can be remedied in two ways. 1. Touchbet systems.

True, but finding a beatable roulette game is a tough enough task by itself. Limiting yourself to only electronic games will make things that much more difficult, and possibly unproductive alltogether.

2. Eliminate half of the wheel where you think the ball might fall into. That give you less bets to put down, and about a 50% edge!!!

That's easier, but still a pretty daunting task based on the layout of the wheel. Look at the image below, pick any half you want and think about how many of those buttons you could locate and press in 2-3 seconds. Even with the wheel layout completely memorized it will be a race against time and the potential for errors will be high.

It's a tough gig even before you get into the actual prediction.

-Sonny-

 

[Nynefingers]

verrrrry interesting.........

thanks hombre!

Agreed...thanks for the recommendation EH. I've never given any serious thought to roulette, but I'm always interested in different types of AP techniques.

 

[UK-21]

That's easier, but still a pretty daunting task based on the layout of the wheel. Look at the image below, pick any half you want and think about how many of those buttons you could locate and press in 2-3 seconds. Even with the wheel layout completely memorized it will be a race against time and the potential for errors will be high.

Quite. You could be quick with the neighbours bets and cover a lot of numbers. Where I play, players are limited to making two neighbours bets - no doubt in order to protect the house from those clever people who can do the trajectory tracking stuff.

 

[Elhombre]

Agreed...thanks for the recommendation EH. I've never given any serious thought to roulette, but I'm always interested in different types of AP techniques.

Ninefingers I have for you, if you are as fast as Ben in memorising
increments of 2 cards, ace sequenzing is easy and profitable,
if you find the opportunities.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
I am a bit slower.

[youtube]
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g_KlsQxf_UE
[/youtube]

Eh.

 

[Jack_Black]

That's easier, but still a pretty daunting task based on the layout of the wheel. Look at the image below, pick any half you want and think about how many of those buttons you could locate and press in 2-3 seconds. Even with the wheel layout completely memorized it will be a race against time and the potential for errors will be high.

It's a tough gig even before you get into the actual prediction.

Tough as in like being able to count cards in less than 30sec, memorize indices, memorize BS, memorize HC chart, and track the shuffle? BRING IT ON!

Is there an easy AP gig out there? please let me know. PM if you don't want to tell everybody about it.:grin::laugh:

 

[London Colin]

Tough as in like being able to count cards in less than 30sec, memorize indices, memorize BS, memorize HC chart, and track the shuffle?

Tough as in running the 100m in 9.5s.

 

[aslan]

Tough as in running the 100m in 9.5s.

You'd have to run faster that a Bolt out of $#%^ to do that.

 

[QFIT]

A few comments:

1. Advantage can be huge, which reduces the effect of variance.
2. Because of the high advantage, whether the table is American or Euro rules has little impact. Hard to imagine, but when you look at the effect of removing a few spots from consideration (as pointed out in this thread) it becomes easier to see.
3. Scott's strategy is based partly on sound. There is a substantial change in pitch as the ball is about to lose contact with the rim. Training yourself in the sounds gives you more time to make bets.
4. There is a reason casinos take precautions, like regularly moving rotors from table to table. They know the game has weaknesses.
5. The only criticism I have of Scott's material is that he probably understates the effort required. But then, he has been at this a long, long time -- and I'm sure it's trivial for him at this point.

 

[Jack_Black]

A few comments:

1. Advantage can be huge, which reduces the effect of variance.
2. Because of the high advantage, whether the table is American or Euro rules has little impact. Hard to imagine, but when you look at the effect of removing a few spots from consideration (as pointed out in this thread) it becomes easier to see.
3. Scott's strategy is based partly on sound. There is a substantial change in pitch as the ball is about to lose contact with the rim. Training yourself in the sounds gives you more time to make bets.
4. There is a reason casinos take precautions, like regularly moving rotors from table to table. They know the game has weaknesses.
5. The only criticism I have of Scott's material is that he probably understates the effort required. But then, he has been at this a long, long time -- and I'm sure it's trivial for him at this point.

Ah! the software developer has commented! thank you!

Did you fully master his system, and if so how hard was it? would you compare it to HCing, shuffle tracking, and using L2 count at the same time?

 

[Jack_Black]

some thoughts on the book thus far

I have finished reading the book 3 Times now And I have a few
criticisms and optimisms thus far.

Pros: the author is competent in some statistics as well as the
scientific method for investigative and objective
observation.

The game is one of the simplest games in terms of rules, outcomes,
and payouts possible.

Cons:

The author uses a lot of ambiguous terms, and short record of trials
that doesn't suggest he overcame the effect of randomness.

The book was fairly easy to read. I found it as easy to read as
something published from frank scoblete's shtick.

The actual method sounds like it was derived like typical blackjack ploppy observation.(flow of the cards, I always stand 16v10) instead of something based in science.

The actual method also sounds pretty complicated, and wasn't well described. That's why I read it 3 times now, and I'm still not sure if I get it all the way.


Roulette is a classical physics problem. I'm surprised it isn't used as a classroom example more often. It has angular momentum, laws of conservation, centripetal force overcoming centrifugal force, deceleration rate of change, trajectories, etc, etc. Thus I was hoping the book would be centered on these concepts. Alas, the author says his methods are based on observations he made over the years. Using a lot of inaccurate language doesn't help either. "I've found that 10 trials is enough" and "the wheel has a tendency..." puts a lot of doubt into my mind for the legitimacy of the system.

The next step for me will be to practice it out and see how hard and if it is still possible to gain an edge.

 

[brandone]

Refresh of this topic!

Bottom line -- this stuff takes a lot of practice and determination and concentration. Sound like something else we know?

I was just reading about the Professional Roulette Prediction system. I did some further research and have found quite a lot of information on the subject, something I never took into consideration before. In the past I had always used 'James Bond' outside bets (dozens and let it ride the whole way) or progressive betting systems like LaBouchere (spelling?) and the simple add-one-on-less-and-remove-on-win that pays well in the short term, and that's exactly what I did; played it shortly!

I digress. The information I've dug up regarding "Professional Roulette Prediction" seems very promising. Essentially there are three schools to this advantage play.

Bottom line -- this stuff takes a lot of practice and determination and concentration. Sound like something else we know?

1) The most obvious, and the one I guess assumed by default early in this thread, was biased wheels. These are understandably hard to find and take a lot of data. There are multiple ways to determine bias (if there is one to be found), of which only a few are used by casinos so you can get that edge. But once again it's very tough.

2) Computers. These things are elite and basically make #3 an more of an exact science and less of an art. However most of the people who produce these are, understandably, skiddish. I saw one with a price tag of $15,000 (with unlimited usage, no commission to the developer necessary) that has all kinds of gizmos wiring you up the wazoo to be the Inspector Gadget of roulette 'cheating' (although it is legal in some jurisdictions). There was another with half the price tag but a percentage of wins were due to the developer, and he has to provide you codes to continue using it. If you're still using it it's obvious it's working for you and thus you must pay the piper. I have no doubt that these are intricate and complex and work, but take a lot of work to get input and comprehension of output right. Similar to #3 ...

3) Visual Prediction / 'Ballistics' (Get it, ballistics). This is a system comprised of detecting numerous sensory input regarding the wheel. The velocity of the ball, the speed of the wheel, the sound the ball makes when it's ready to drop, average 'bounce' of the ball, detecting a favored deflection point, and playing neighbors of the possible landing all before the croupier says 'no more bets!'. In the Professional Roulette Prediction system, they use and include software developed by the elite Norm Wattenberger (alias 'QFIT' here on the BJInfo forums) along with the book. If QFIT has anything to do with it, I'm sure it's legit. I have sexual fantasies about Casino Verite suite. I'm sure he's seen proof or indication that an advantage and EV is gained. And to me it sounds very legitimate and sound in it's science.

Bottom line -- this stuff takes a lot of practice and determination and concentration. Sound like something else we know?

Now the Professional Roulette Prediction isn't the only game out there. There are also other systems, including some free information I came across describing the visual ballistics a little bit more so you can get an idea for how it works on a certain type of wheel, a slanted wheel. Videos and more information located here http://rouletteplace.com/index.php/topic,868.0.html. Modifications and different methods are used for other kinds of wheels including the most common and 'unbiased' wheel used by casinos (although the name escapes me at the moment). Casinos are paranoid about their wheels. They use software to determine if the wheel shows bias; they dismantle the wheel and calibrate it; they even switch wheels around the casino floor during downtime (I've seen it in Vegas and I'm sure anyone spending time on the floor has at one point!) Point being the house knows that a very positive advantage play can be achieved. Even if it were strictly by computer with input from an extremely well trained operator, that would be enough to convince me. But the fact that it is seemingly done by a well trained eye and ear is even more amazing.

Needless to say, I am researching more into this and will update periodically to the thread. There seem to be some changes casinos can make that make all of this much harder including these low-profile wheels that improve the 'scatter' (or the jumpiness of the ball after dropping) but who knows if it can be defeated or not.

Bottom line -- this stuff takes a lot of practice and determination and concentration. Sound like something else we know?

 

[metronome]

Random thought:
Is there any pattern or rhyme or reason as to the layout of an American or European wheel.:juggle:

 

[brandone]

Did you know that all of the numbers on a roulette table, when added, equal 666?

Just food for thought.

 

[Jack_Black]

Random thought:
Is there any pattern or rhyme or reason as to the layout of an American or European wheel.:juggle:

so as to discourage sector betting. I'm sure a lot more folks would try AP roulette if the wheel layout was in sequential order.

 

[Jack_Black]

Did you know that all of the numbers on a roulette table, when added, equal 666?

Just food for thought.

did you know getting a hand of 7 7 7 equals 21? some places pay bonuses for that you know.

anyway, it's a coincidence. Numerology is about the lamest superstition to believe in. 666 can be derived in so many idiotic ways that some punk thought it was more than coincidence, and thus invented the pseudoscience. They also ended up making a lame movie out of it called "The number 23" starring jim carrey. Not to be confused with the movie "21" starring kevin spacey.

666 is also quite controversial with theologians. None can seem to find any exact origins or biblical purpose to it. Leading one to believe it was a myth started by overzealots when christianity moved to the western hemisphere.

Not to say the christianity is also not a myth!! Myths within a myth! now that's something to sell to the religious masses!

 

[aslan]

did you know getting a hand of 7 7 7 equals 21? some places pay bonuses for that you know.

anyway, it's a coincidence. Numerology is about the lamest superstition to believe in. 666 can be derived in so many idiotic ways that some punk thought it was more than coincidence, and thus invented the pseudoscience. They also ended up making a lame movie out of it called "The number 23" starring jim carrey. Not to be confused with the movie "21" starring kevin spacey.

666 is also quite controversial with theologians. None can seem to find any exact origins or biblical purpose to it. Leading one to believe it was a myth started by overzealots when christianity moved to the western hemisphere.

Not to say the christianity is also not a myth!! Myths within a myth! now that's something to sell to the religious masses!

My favorite myth is the one that says there is no God. :laugh: j/k :joker::whip:

 

[Mr. T]

My favorite myth is the one that says there is no God. :laugh: j/k :joker::whip:

You are not talking about me, or are you?