Reflections on my first big loss

[apex]

I knew this day would come. It is kind of an odd feeling. Im not angry, or upset with myself. I just feel "down," a feeling close to sad but somewhat different.

I have spent some time questioning my skills, but I am fairly sure I have been accurate. I plan to count down a few decks when I get done with this to be sure. I have thought about all of the borderline plays I made. There are a couple things I learned, and a couple things I would do differently but I think I played well.

Conditions were great. I got a lot of good big bets in these last 2 days and I would make the same bets if I had it to do all over again. Our edge is so small.

 

[matt21]

I knew this day would come. It is kind of an odd feeling. Im not angry, or upset with myself. I just feel "down," a feeling close to sad but somewhat different.

I have spent some time questioning my skills, but I am fairly sure I have been accurate. I plan to count down a few decks when I get done with this to be sure. I have thought about all of the borderline plays I made. There are a couple things I learned, and a couple things I would do differently but I think I played well.

Conditions were great. I got a lot of good big bets in these last 2 days and I would make the same bets if I had it to do all over again. Our edge is so small.

Hi Apex. Sorry to hear that you had a big loss. It sounds like you are reflecting on it in the right way i.e. did you play/count correctly, in other words was it just down to negative variance. Good work!

Unfortunately these days happen when you gamble as an AP - keep going!

 

[Southpaw]

I knew this day would come. It is kind of an odd feeling. Im not angry, or upset with myself. I just feel "down," a feeling close to sad but somewhat different.

I have spent some time questioning my skills, but I am fairly sure I have been accurate. I plan to count down a few decks when I get done with this to be sure. I have thought about all of the borderline plays I made. There are a couple things I learned, and a couple things I would do differently but I think I played well.

Conditions were great. I got a lot of good big bets in these last 2 days and I would make the same bets if I had it to do all over again. Our edge is so small.

Apex,

Do not second-guess the borderline index plays (if these are the borderline plays that you refer to). When the TC is just within a few units away from the index, it does NOT matter what you do here, even in the long run, for all intents and purposes. The beautiful thing about indices is that the hardest decisions--the ones where the index is really close--are the ones that do not hurt you by making a mistake. To the contrary, those index decisions where the play is blatantly obvious are the ones that actually have appreciable value. The one exception here is the insurance play. I have found this play to be a lot more elastic; the cost of not insuring when the TC is just above the index becomes significant quickly.

If you have CVBJ, there is a drill called the flashcard trill where it will randomly deal you out a play (i.e., 10,10 v. 5) and display a TC such as +16, and it will ask you real quick what should be done. For me, this would be a split as my index for this play is +15. This drill would help to catch any playing errors that you may be making.

You hear it all the time that betting decisions are much more important than playing decisions. However, this is not necessarily true as stated. Betting decisions are more important than basic strategy departures, but they are certainly not more important than playing decisions. The above drill will make sure you are making correct playing decisions.

As far as betting decisions go there are also many drills out there for practicing this, but not betting the called for amount every single time is not nearly as detrimental as making poor playing decisions.

Better cards to you,

SP

 

[21forme]

Look at it this way:

You have a theoretical EV. You are always approaching it from one side or the other. At times, it will be from above and a big loss brings you closer to it. At other times, it will be from below, when a big win brings you closer to it.

Expressed graphically (but tipping the line in the other direction. This was all I could find on short notice ):

 

[blackjack avenger]

A Bit of Salt

Sounds like you are new to playing? Well, you will face a bigger loss in the future. The good news is it will most likely be "their" money; not your original investment, if you play long enough. This is the time that separates:
The wheat from the chaff
The men from the boys
The counters from the pseudo counters

Feel the burn, get mad and go get your money back!:joker::whip:
play smart
good cards

 

[Blue Efficacy]

Our edge is so small? I dunno, maybe yours is. If card counting is your only tool, you must be prepared to lose and lose big every time you play. Sometimes it can be unreal. But yes, there will be sessions where everything possible goes wrong. You will also have shoes where you win almost every hand. And everything in between.

 

[Blue Efficacy]

Apex,

Do not second-guess the borderline index plays (if these are the borderline plays that you refer to). When the TC is just within a few units away from the index, it does NOT matter what you do here, even in the long run, for all intents and purposes. The beautiful thing about indices is that the hardest decisions--the ones where the index is really close--are the ones that do not hurt you by making a mistake. To the contrary, those index decisions where the play is blatantly obvious are the ones that actually have appreciable value. The one exception here is the insurance play. I have found this play to be a lot more elastic; the cost of not insuring when the TC is just above the index becomes significant quickly.

If you have CVBJ, there is a drill called the flashcard trill where it will randomly deal you out a play (i.e., 10,10 v. 5) and display a TC such as +16, and it will ask you real quick what should be done. For me, this would be a split as my index for this play is +15. This drill would help to catch any playing errors that you may be making.

You hear it all the time that betting decisions are much more important than playing decisions. However, this is not necessarily true as stated. Betting decisions are more important than basic strategy departures, but they are certainly not more important than playing decisions. The above drill will make sure you are making correct playing decisions.

As far as betting decisions go there are also many drills out there for practicing this, but not betting the called for amount every single time is not nearly as detrimental as making poor playing decisions.

Better cards to you,

SP

You know that by holding out until TC15 (!) it is no longer a borderline index play mistake you're making. Instead you're passing up loads of cash. Unless you're using a system much different than hi-lo, shrug

 

[paddywhack]

You know that by holding out until TC15 (!) it is no longer a borderline index play mistake you're making. Instead you're passing up loads of cash. Unless you're using a system much different than hi-lo, shrug

He's not playing a level one, you know.....

 

[Southpaw]

You know that by holding out until TC15 (!) it is no longer a borderline index play mistake you're making. Instead you're passing up loads of cash. Unless you're using a system much different than hi-lo, shrug

A level two system with RA indices will make for 10-splitting indices that may be more than twice as high as those found in Hi-Lo.

SP

 

[aslan]

I knew this day would come. It is kind of an odd feeling. Im not angry, or upset with myself. I just feel "down," a feeling close to sad but somewhat different.

I have spent some time questioning my skills, but I am fairly sure I have been accurate. I plan to count down a few decks when I get done with this to be sure. I have thought about all of the borderline plays I made. There are a couple things I learned, and a couple things I would do differently but I think I played well.

Conditions were great. I got a lot of good big bets in these last 2 days and I would make the same bets if I had it to do all over again. Our edge is so small.

It's really an empty feeling when you lose the big one. For a few days I don't feel like I have enough enough get up and go to tackle the tables again. Desire is zero. But after a few more days I am chafing at the bit to hit it one more time. Resilient creatures, these humans!

 

[zengrifter]

I have spent some time questioning my skills, but I am fairly sure I have been accurate. I plan to count down a few decks when I get done with this to be sure. I have thought about all of the borderline plays I made. There are a couple things I learned, and a couple things I would do differently but I think I played well.

I saw that you play BJSwitch - thats a relatively complex game to master -
- how have your results been there? zg

 

[eandre]

Learn as quickly as possible to trust your skills and distance yourself from the money. You have to not "care" about winning or losing a session. If you lose, think of it as putting your money on deposit and that you will retrieve it later or at the next casino. If you are good enough and understand that life is one long blackjack game then even a massive loss will not shake you. If it does, then bj may not be for you. If you do not track every session and you don't know exactly where you stand then you are kidding yourself and are probably a long term looser. After only a few years of play, a real AP will be ahead a substantial amount and should not have any worries about being wiped out. Your only fear should be that we may not be able to find a beatable game someday or be banned one time too often.

 

[apex]

Sounds like you are new to playing? Well, you will face a bigger loss in the future.

I have been playing since Nov 11 2010. Even though it has only been a couple months I have played over 150 hours. It has been mostly roses up until this point. My extremes have been $1200 wins and $800 losses, both of which have happened several times. This $2000+ loss erased about 25% of my lifetime profits, but I am actually still up $1000+ over the last two weeks. I know this is part of the game. Can't wait to hit a win of the same magnitude. I think my EV for the last trip was around +$900, so if I have a streak of wins of the same magnitude of my losses it should come out to around + $4800. I hope it happens before another big loss.

Our edge is so small? I dunno, maybe yours is. If card counting is your only tool, you must be prepared to lose and lose big every time you play. Sometimes it can be unreal. But yes, there will be sessions where everything possible goes wrong. You will also have shoes where you win almost every hand. And everything in between.

This trip I actually had a small window of higher edge play. For about an hour I was playing with nearly a 7% advatage. The same member who told me how good the situation I found was has asked me not to speak about it, so PM me if you want to know more. I hit this opportunity pretty hard, and lost about 600.

It's really an empty feeling when you lose the big one. For a few days I don't feel like I have enough enough get up and go to tackle the tables again. Desire is zero. But after a few more days I am chafing at the bit to hit it one more time. Resilient creatures, these humans!

24 hours later I am over it and ready to play again!

I saw that you play BJSwitch - thats a relatively complex game to master -
- how have your results been there? zg

I have played about 15 hours of switch. I am up about $400 on the game, but this last trip I was down about $600. I agree that it is complex and I am probably not playing it ideally, but I think I am close enough for it to be a good decision to play.

 

[zengrifter]

I have been playing since Nov 11 2010. Even though it has only been a couple months I have played over 150 hours. It has been mostly roses up until this point. My extremes have been $1200 wins and $800 losses, both of which have happened several times. This $2000+ loss erased about 25% of my lifetime profits...

Its nothing... IF you are good. -10 max bets for an evening is NOTHING. zg

 

[bjcardcounter]

Our edge is so small? I dunno, maybe yours is. If card counting is your only tool, you must be prepared to lose and lose big every time you play. Sometimes it can be unreal. But yes, there will be sessions where everything possible goes wrong. You will also have shoes where you win almost every hand. And everything in between.

Blue efficacy, How big your edge is ?

 

[apex]

Its nothing... IF you are good. -10 max bets for an evening is NOTHING. zg

True. This was in no way an unlikely event, but it was my first. It is kind of a big deal to me since I am overbetting my bankroll so much.

Id like to make an argument for overbetting. I feel like I am in a situation where overbetting makes sense. I am not at all worried about my future earnings since I am happy to work for money. If I were to lose everything blackjack would get demoted to hobby status for awhile.

If I were to play at a level my current bankroll could support travel expenses would basically eat all of my expected earning. Instead I choose to play high enough to make money.

Another way I look at it is that my "lifetime" bankroll is a lot higher than what I can currently commit to the game. If I were to go bust, I would reload when I could. I am convinced that advantage play works, and would probably have to lose $100,000 over the course of my life to stop playing. So maybe I am underbetting?

 

[shadroch]

Why do you reflect on your first big loss and not do so on your first big win?
Both came from the same source- variance.

 

[zengrifter]

True. This was in no way an unlikely event, but it was my first. It is kind of a big deal to me since I am overbetting my bankroll so much.

Id like to make an argument for overbetting. I feel like I am in a situation where overbetting makes sense. I am not at all worried about my future earnings since I am happy to work for money. If I were to lose everything blackjack would get demoted to hobby status for awhile.

If I were to play at a level my current bankroll could support travel expenses would basically eat all of my expected earning. Instead I choose to play high enough to make money.

Another way I look at it is that my "lifetime" bankroll is a lot higher than what I can currently commit to the game. If I were to go bust, I would reload when I could. I am convinced that advantage play works, and would probably have to lose $100,000 over the course of my life to stop playing. So maybe I am underbetting?

Stop over-betting NOW while you have the bigger BR resultant from the over-betting. zg

 

[apex]

Why do you reflect on your first big loss and not do so on your first big win?
Both came from the same source- variance.

I am trying to make friends here with hopes of getting invited to the Bash so I can learn some real AP stuff. I think people relate more to posts about losses, but may see posts about wins as arrogance or bragging. I self-reflect on my big wins, all of my sessions really.

Stop over-betting NOW while you have the bigger BR resultant from the over-betting. zg

Does everyone agree with this? Does anyone think betting based on my lifetime bankroll versus my current bankroll makes sense?

 

[Renzey]

A level two system with RA indices will make for 10-splitting indices that may be more than twice as high as those found in Hi-Lo.SP

A full level 2 system will double the indices from Hi/Lo, and a 2-deck TC will double those again-- turning a +5 index number into +20!.