Reflections on my first big loss

blackjack avenger

blackjack avenger

Well-Known Member
Overbetting & Lifetime Play

If you overbet by a large enough amount you will lose all with certainty. If you lose all then you cannot play, no matter how good the game is. It sounds like your bank is replaceable in the mid to long term, but not the short term. This is a problem. How do you get to the long run if you bust out numerous small banks and have to wait to play again? I tend to agree with Zengrifter if you overbet, won and now have enough to sustain a reasonable level of play then stay there. If you keep overbetting you will lose. If you have enough $ to now earn equal to double your job wage then you should stay at those stakes and build the bank. How will you feel if you lose all vs playing at a reasonable limit where you can build your bank? A hint might be how well you are taking this minor negative variance.

:joker::whip:
good cards
 
zengrifter

zengrifter

Banned
apex said:
Does anyone think betting based on my lifetime bankroll versus my current bankroll makes sense?
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I'm a big believer in lifetime BR approach. But not as an excuse to over-bet.* zg

*Unless the BR is reasonably replenishable.
 
M

matt21

Well-Known Member
apex said:
Does everyone agree with this? Does anyone think betting based on my lifetime bankroll versus my current bankroll makes sense?
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hey Apex!

I think the correct answer is that you should be designing your bet ramp in the context of your current BR, and that basing your betting on your "lifetime roll" is more an excuse to encourage a less responsible decision path.

When I was counting on a fairly full-time basis, I accepted a ROR of 8%, rather than the <1% that most professionals would target. I did this because I viewed BJ as a business opportunity alongside other opportunities, and decided that a 8% ROR was an acceptable business risk in exchange for higher potential earnings. It was a decision that suited my circumstances at the time - I am not sure whether it was a good call or not - it worked out fine for me - my earnings were within 1 std dev of my EV (on the upside).

If you decide to continue overbetting, and you end up losing your BR (which probably has a good chance of occurring - what is your ROR?) then what are the chances that you will continue learning/progressing/making contacts in the community/scouting whilst not being able to play? Are you going to have enough motivation to do that whilst putting together your next bankroll? Why shift the odds against you?

An alternative for you is to learn more advanced techniques that provide you with higher EV, less variance and thus accomodate a smaller BR (look thru the Advanced section of the forum to give you some ideas). Are you more likely or less likely to be able to do that if you overbet your BR? Certainly you wouldnt be able to find 7%-advantage situations if you have blown your BR. Put things in perspective. A 7% advantage is like having a TC of +14 non-stop for an hour.

Hopefully that gives you some food for thought. Good luck! :)

Matt21
 
zengrifter

zengrifter

Banned
matt21 said:
When I was counting on a fairly full-time basis, I accepted a ROR of 8%, rather than the <1% that most professionals would target. I did this because I viewed BJ as a business opportunity alongside other opportunities, and decided that a 8% ROR was an acceptable business risk in exchange for higher potential earnings. It was a decision that suited my circumstances at the time - I am not sure whether it was a good call or not - it worked out fine for me - my earnings were within 1 std dev of my EV (on the upside).
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The maximum growth ramp is what, 13% RoR? THAT is acceptable for many.
Beyond the 13% RoR you start losing profit. zg
 
M

matt21

Well-Known Member
zengrifter said:
The maximum growth ramp is what, 13% RoR? THAT is acceptable for many.
Beyond the 13% RoR you start losing profit. zg
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So you are saying I was actuallly betting on the conservative side with an 8% ROR? :(
 
Southpaw

Southpaw

Well-Known Member
Food for thought. While having an RoR of 13.53% (Full-Kelly), you earn only twice as much as one that has an RoR of less than 2% (Half-Kelly) (Can't remember the exact figure and my simulator is currently occupied). As you can see, the relation between risk and earning is non-linear.

SP
 
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apex

Well-Known Member
Interesting

Good points. Maybe I will take a week off to read a few more books, and actually do the math for my situation. So far I have just been estimating things like hourly rates, ROR, etc. by comparing my play to similar examples. Maybe I should switch to half kelly for counting and do more scouting for higher EV AP plays.
 
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NightStalker

Well-Known Member
Please don't use wheelchair.

apex said:
Good points. Maybe I will take a week off to read a few more books, and actually do the math for my situation. So far I have just been estimating things like hourly rates, ROR, etc. by comparing my play to similar examples. Maybe I should switch to half kelly for counting and do more scouting for higher EV AP plays.

*Don't worry I will delete this soon*
<deleted>
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Stop using wheelchair and other cheap gimmicks.. If ExCAA is not selling book to you, then there must be some reason. Assuming respect for author and book, noone would like to answer your queries. You have to find you way at your own..
 
zengrifter

zengrifter

Banned
apex said:
Good points. Maybe I will take a week off to read a few more books, and actually do the math for my situation. So far I have just been estimating things like hourly rates, ROR, etc. by comparing my play to similar examples. Maybe I should switch to half kelly for counting and do more scouting for higher EV AP plays.
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Your top bet you said was $200. Whats your present BR? zg
 
A

apex

Well-Known Member
zengrifter said:
Your top bet you said was $200. Whats your present BR? zg
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Good question. It isn't really well defined. I have about 7k in cash, and would probably chase it with up to 10k more at this point. So lets say $17,000.
 
N

NightStalker

Well-Known Member
ha ha

zengrifter said:
THAT's bullsh*t. Someone here should answer his UTHE HC strategy.
Otherwise, Apex post the question publically on ExCAA's board (Archive copy). zg
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You really do a great job in "anything else" section, keep it up there.. Not sure what 'Zen Zone' is, looks like a jungle of super-confidential information.

One customer buy a book and post book-text online on random forum/blog for free - disrespect+copyright violation- to get rid of all other potential customers..

Do you own research and post the solution, can you??
 
A

apex

Well-Known Member
I don't think I can. I mean maybe if I spent a lot of time and learned a bunch of new stuff I could figure it out, but I might do it wrong. It has already been done by someone smarter than I, and is suppose to be available for purchase. I would be a happy customer. I think he really doesn't care either way if he sells a book. I have sent 2 emails in the past month that were not answered. My pm was answered "I'll look into it." I get the impression he doesn't want to be bothered. Not trying to talk smack about JG here at all, I respect the man, but I do want the info.
 
zengrifter

zengrifter

Banned
NightStalker said:
Assuming respect for author and book...
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I see JG taking pot shots at BJINFO threads and responses repeatedly at his board, even when uncalled for.
Like this one >>
(Dead link: http://www.beyondcounting.com/bb/viewtopic.php?t=437)

Respect shown should be mutual. Certainly you noticed the JG discrepancy?
And if so why did you not point it out? Was it out of misplaced reverence and syncopathy? zg
 
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zengrifter

zengrifter

Banned
apex said:
Good question. It isn't really well defined. I have about 7k in cash, and would probably chase it with up to 10k more at this point. So lets say $17,000.
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Okay, then calc the bets for 10% RoR on 17k and tell us how that looks. zg
 
zengrifter

zengrifter

Banned
zengrifter said:
I see JG taking pot shots at BJINFO threads and responses repeatedly at his board, even when uncalled for.
Like this one >>
(Dead link: http://www.beyondcounting.com/bb/viewtopic.php?t=437)

Respect shown should be mutual. Certainly you noticed the JG discrepancy?
And if so why did you not point it out? Was it out of misplaced reverence and syncopathy? zg
Click to expand...
Hmmm... ExCAA shows up to run a little public relations @ BJINFO
7min after I post a criticism after not posting anything for 6+mos? z:rolleyes:g
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=20688
 
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