Speaking of bad variance

[Kasi]

The whole point of this thread was to give an example of how bad variance can be, ...

Guess it's up to me to be the "tough guy" again lol.

Then why does no one make an attempt to quantify just "how" bad or good their variance was?

That's the point of variance - it allows one to quantify and say my luck was "1 in a 1000 whatever" bad or good.

To Newb99, the only guy who even attempted to quantify his "bad" luck, beware of that Wiz table in that it assumes the loss of losing that original roll at any point in time. It is not the same as finishing that many units down after so many rounds if one had started with a larger roll to begin with.

And God bless you if 1% chance of bad luck is indeed the worst you have experienced lol. It will get worse at some point lol.

And to Matt21 who mentioned the importance of knowing one's EV and SD per round so one can actually have a chance of making a reasonable guess as to one's "bad" (or good) luck , hat's off to you too.

Otherwise, either learn how to quantify the liklihood of your results or stop the pity-parties :cry: :cry:

Look at that - you reduced a tough guy like me to tears lol.

 

[Jennifervn]

Thanks for your posts. They are really very cool, very wonderful:laugh::cool2:.
(Dead link: http://simulationcredit1.com) _simulationcredit_

 

[non-self-weighter]

Hi,

These threads are all over blackjack (and small stakes poker) forums. I'm sick of it.

You need to learn more about statistics. A LOT MORE. and not just learn about it... really understand it well. Not just understand it, but accept it fully knowing what you are doing.

Your gambling life is insignificant.

Variance is the only reason casinos are able to offer these games to you.

 

[blackchipjim]

variance speak

The devil is in the details of our game we so want to beat. The math tells us it can't last forever good or bad. Experiance will tell you if you are doing everything correct and still getting your butt kicked leave. A real ap learns to set stop loss limits as not to break your bank.This my friend is an important rule you make for yourself and stick by it, then review what happend that day. It will make you a better player in the long run, since the long run is what we are all about. blackchipjim

 

[sagefr0g]

The devil is in the details of our game we so want to beat. The math tells us it can't last forever good or bad. Experiance will tell you if you are doing everything correct and still getting your butt kicked leave. A real ap learns to set stop loss limits as not to break your bank.This my friend is an important rule you make for yourself and stick by it, then review what happend that day. It will make you a better player in the long run, since the long run is what we are all about. blackchipjim

well we all pretty much know that stop loss stuff is voodoo, lol. or, erhh maybe it isn't voodoo, maybe just not optimal.
that said, i couldn't agree with you more.

 

[Automatic Monkey]

OK. Now tell us about some of your good variance as a counter. Since you are playing with an advantage, most of your sessions are winners, right?

Not enough information. In shoe games you can play with an advantage, have a normal long-term win rate, and still a majority of sessions will be losers if you play sufficiently short sessions.

If you play sufficiently long sessions, the percentage of losing sessions becomes lower and for session lengths approaching infinity the incidence of losing sessions approaches zero.

Just being pedantic.

 

[Katweezel]

Significant

Hi,

These threads are all over blackjack (and small stakes poker) forums. I'm sick of it.

You need to learn more about statistics. A LOT MORE. and not just learn about it... really understand it well. Not just understand it, but accept it fully knowing what you are doing.

Your gambling life is insignificant.

Variance is the only reason casinos are able to offer these games to you.

Gee, and I thought I was only up against the very low house edge in BJ. When all along the bad guys are variance, dealers from hell, shoes from hell, tables from hell... what the hell... Luckily, there is no errr, variance in craps is there? Or roulette? Baccarat? Must be only in blackjack. Thank you for pointing that out. Your gambling life must be insignificant.

 

[DonR]

I'm really sorry I reduced some of you to tears, and made the others sick of it. I promise not to do it ever again.

Thank you all, and to all a good night!

P.S. A nice violin...I hope you know where it belongs.

 

[UK-21]

My thoughts articulated in a nutshell . . . . .
I apologise also for not being able to hand out the vomit bags.

:-(

 

[non-self-weighter]

Luckily, there is no errr, variance in craps is there? Or roulette? Baccarat?

Those games would not exist if they had no variance. Do you see why?

Must be only in blackjack. Thank you for pointing that out.

Clearly you've misunderstood.

Your gambling life must be insignificant.

Indeed.

 

[SystemsTrader]

Hi,

These threads are all over blackjack (and small stakes poker) forums. I'm sick of it.

You need to learn more about statistics. A LOT MORE. and not just learn about it... really understand it well. Not just understand it, but accept it fully knowing what you are doing.

Your gambling life is insignificant.

Variance is the only reason casinos are able to offer these games to you.

While what you are saying is true and players do need to understand statistics before they can beat this game the reality is people are not robots, they are human beings and emotions play a big part of their success or failures. Winning at blackjack is really easy and anybody can do it but conquering your own emotions, especially fear and greed is what will set the winners from the losers apart in this game.

At work, school or home life we all want to be told when we are doing a good job when we've done well and be given words of encouragement when things are going poorly. That's why we have posts like these and next month there will be another, they will never end. Most people post these types of threads because family and friends who are not players don't get what you are going through. They probably consider AP nothing but gambling and if you tell them about the hard times they just figure the odds finally caught up to you. That's why people come to these boards to find like minded individuals.

All I can say to you DonR is I hope you don't give up. This is just my opinion but if you are properly capitalized and stick to a positive EV plan things will turn around for you. One of the things I do is I separate myself from the money aspect and just think of your bankroll as units or points knowing it will turn around and while this may sound stupid my goal is not to make money at the casino but to execute my positive EV system flawlessly. That's how I deal with the emotional aspects of the ups and downs of the game. The loses don't bother me too much and I also don't get excited with the big wins either.

 

[daddybo]

in the mind

My brother (A longtime professional) once told me..."If you are thinking of the chips as money when you play, then you probably don't need to be playing."

What he was saying is, if you are sweating the money while you play, you will make bad decisions and probably lose. If you are sweating the money, your physical and/or mental bankroll is not large enough.

I learned not to think of the money at all..just play the game to win. The money will come and and it's a lot easier on the physche when you lose.

 

[Kasi]

Those games would not exist if they had no variance. Do you see why?

Not really.

An even-money, fair, coin-flip game has variance but no EV so it is not offered.

Those games are offered, not because they have variance, but because they have -EV to the player.

 

[non-self-weighter]

The games are offered because they are -EV. Those games are played because there is variance.

Imagine a -EV game with no variance. The player loses every hand. This game would not be played.

Variance is the only reason that unskilled ploppies can sometimes win BIG. This is why they continue to play, and casinos continue to offer the game. Variance is also the only reason that skilled players can sometimes lose BIG.

If there were no variance, casinos would not offer blackjack games that are beatable. It is the nature of the beast. DEAL WITH IT. The +EV games for the AP only exist because the AP will sometimes lose BIG, even with a large edge.

 

[Captain]

OK. Now tell us about some of your good variance as a counter. Since you are playing with an advantage, most of your sessions are winners, right?

Actually no, I've been pretty much breaking even. I think I need a better bet spread. Any suggestions for a 2k br at $10 min tables?

 

[creeping panther]

No

If you're counting and spreading 1-2 on an 8D shoe ... I expect many more losses in your future.

If you are playing 8 deck you are FUC*** anyhow.

Keep on rewarding the casino for the SH** games

CP

 

[creeping panther]

St

While what you are saying is true and players do need to understand statistics before they can beat this game the reality is people are not robots, they are human beings and emotions play a big part of their success or failures. Winning at blackjack is really easy and anybody can do it but conquering your own emotions, especially fear and greed is what will set the winners from the losers apart in this game.

At work, school or home life we all want to be told when we are doing a good job when we've done well and be given words of encouragement when things are going poorly. That's why we have posts like these and next month there will be another, they will never end. Most people post these types of threads because family and friends who are not players don't get what you are going through. They probably consider AP nothing but gambling and if you tell them about the hard times they just figure the odds finally caught up to you. That's why people come to these boards to find like minded individuals.

All I can say to you DonR is I hope you don't give up. This is just my opinion but if you are properly capitalized and stick to a positive EV plan things will turn around for you. One of the things I do is I separate myself from the money aspect and just think of your bankroll as units or points knowing it will turn around and while this may sound stupid my goal is not to make money at the casino but to execute my positive EV system flawlessly. That's how I deal with the emotional aspects of the ups and downs of the game. The loses don't bother me too much and I also don't get excited with the big wins either.

ST,

Nice post.. written by the "Real Deal"

CP

 

[sagefr0g]

Quote:
Originally Posted by SystemsTrader View Post
While what you are saying is true and players do need to understand statistics before they can beat this game the reality is people are not robots, they are human beings and emotions play a big part of their success or failures. Winning at blackjack is really easy and anybody can do it but conquering your own emotions, especially fear and greed is what will set the winners from the losers apart in this game.

At work, school or home life we all want to be told when we are doing a good job when we've done well and be given words of encouragement when things are going poorly. That's why we have posts like these and next month there will be another, they will never end. Most people post these types of threads because family and friends who are not players don't get what you are going through. They probably consider AP nothing but gambling and if you tell them about the hard times they just figure the odds finally caught up to you. That's why people come to these boards to find like minded individuals.

All I can say to you DonR is I hope you don't give up. This is just my opinion but if you are properly capitalized and stick to a positive EV plan things will turn around for you. One of the things I do is I separate myself from the money aspect and just think of your bankroll as units or points knowing it will turn around and while this may sound stupid my goal is not to make money at the casino but to execute my positive EV system flawlessly. That's how I deal with the emotional aspects of the ups and downs of the game. The loses don't bother me too much and I also don't get excited with the big wins either.

ST,

Nice post.. written by the "Real Deal"

CP

yep Real Deal, all right, 'the man of steel', lacking no courage at all, lol we know that. tell you who dude reminds me of is the guy on tv, Bear Grylls that does all that stuff that guys like me only ever dream of sort of thing, for real.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wXNGss5Ov7g&feature=channel
no lie, Systems Trader thrives on stuff like that, lol.

but yeah, when it comes to blackjack, like Wong writes in PB, pg 205, "... How much you bet is determined by more than just what is mathematically optimal. If you are not emotionally prepared to accept the risk associated with optimal bets, then bet less. If you bet less than the optimal amount, you will never go broke, but you will not get rich as fast as you might. Know yourself - check your emotional readiness to lose before you set up a betting plan.
You must be cold and calculating. Steely blue eyes will do. You must have no emotional attachment to that money you throw on the table. It must mean little to you. If you lose it, so what; it's only money. If you cannot afford to lose it, you cannot afford to bet it. In no way is short-run profit guaranteed. You cannot plan on winning the next hand. Lady Luck has a heart of stone. You will be way ahead if you play long enough, but only if. The actual play is a hand at a time and you must be able to emotionally handle the losses that will occur reguarly. Bet an amount you can live without....."

just me maybe, i don't know how anyone can do it. but Systems Trader does.

me, i resent every fricken cent i lose, lmao, and i definately don't know what the future holds outside of casino walls as far as my financial solvency is concerned.

me, all i can do, to deal with this sort of stuff is pull all kind of psychological mental mind tricks on myself.
every hand i play, even my big bets i try and keep in mind, "well wise-one your probably gonna lose this one", lmao. if i get a twenty-one three or more card hand or twenty one on a double down, i try and not get that smug feeling of 'yeah, gotcha', instead i try and keep in mind that the dealer is very well maybe gonna have one as well, lol.
never under estimate the enemy, lol.

since emotionally i sweat every nickle i bet, i gotta trick myself. i mean heck i know if i play right, then odds are long term i'm gonna be winner. thing is, emotionally that doesn't do the trick for me. plain and simple, i revel in the past and the present not the future. heck, i just hope there is a future, lol.
all that said, i gotta admitt that little roll thats been building up over the years does kind of give me a warm fuzzy feeling as far as having a future.


how many times in this game, does anyone feel like Sisyphus must feel about his mountain.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Myth_of_Sisyphus
http://www.nyu.edu/classes/keefer/hell/camus.html

go figure Miley Cyrus actually has a clue, maybe.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tU7tV4GCmWw

i dunno, me, if after a bit of climbing that mountain, 'the blackjack mountain that is' , taking a breather and i haven't yet fallen down to the bottom, it's a pretty good, feel good thing.
what ever i kind of try and take the attitude Evel Knievel had when he was asked about the snake river canyon jump, "aren't you a bit afraid about making this jump?" Evel answered, "it doesn't much matter i'm gonna do it anyway.":laugh:

 

[psyduck]

If you are playing 8 deck you are FUC*** anyhow.

Are you saying you cannot beat 8 deck games even with your own secret tactics? My impresson has been that pros can beat 8 deck games.

 

[johndoe]

Are you saying you cannot beat 8 deck games even with your own secret tactics? My impresson has been that pros can beat 8 deck games.

Anyone can beat 8 deck games. In many cases, they're a good deal better than commonly available 6 deck games.