Splitting 10s

[Sharky]

...I was willing to play more aggressively ...and won too much while spreading my bets with the count..

believe it or not, these two events ARE correlated...problem is the large majority, say at least 99/100 players on this site, are not pros and are WAY OVERLY PARANOID

 

[Ferretnparrot]

The value of a preserved card is very little at a full table, but playing heads up, it can be much more.

In the case of splitting tens, you save a minimum of two cards from being drawn, but on average, you save more because you will occasinoally resplit.

You have to consider THE NUMBER OF PLAYERS AT THE TABLE when deciding what an individual card is worth, because a cards value is based upon the total number of cards required to deal a round on average.

If you have a TC of +6 and a player advantage of 2.5% matbe assume you playign heads up and for arguments sake the average round consumes 5 cards.

Each additional card in the deck/shoe is worth 1/5 of 2.5% for a value of 0.5%


Now you would just set your pair splitting index for when splitting exceeds 1% more value than standing. instead of marking the point where the TC is equal and justifies the action.

However, if their was say a full table, say 5 players, and the average number of cards consumed is higher per round, so the card is worth less, and the index could be lower by a small degree.

That is as far as "saving" a card should ever go IMO, I opened a discusson about this before I beeleive we concluded that the margin for tyhe index change was so small and insiginifigant it just wasnt worth it for the majority of index plays.

This has always sparked my interest because in actuallity, the number of players at the table could effectively increase or decrease your expected take advantage vs time by increaseing the average percentage of hands dealt at +ev counts in a given time frame when the player modifies index play slightly during heads up play where single cards are most valuable.

About your index for splitting to multiple hands, the index for only splitting once should be higher since the potential for MORE EV is higher when you can resplit.

 

[aslan]

For those who say do not split tens for the reason of saving cards for a new round, are not the extra hands split to equivalent to a new round or two in and of themselves? Personally, I don't see what is gained. You might get another hand or two if you don't split, but if you do, you know you will get at the very least one more hand (the extra hand from splitting) at a healthy plus count.

Still, I don't like to split tens. I just don't like drawing attention to my style of play. I mean, after being pigeonholed as a conservative basic strategy player who plays logically and makes few incorrect plays, why all of a sudden would I want to make a play that is completely out of character. I feel I would have to lay down an awful lot of camo to make spitting tens seem par for the course with the kind of game I am playing.

 

[kewljason]

For those who say do not split tens for the reason of saving cards for a new round, are not the extra hands split to equivalent to a new round or two in and of themselves? Personally, I don't see what is gained. You might get another hand or two if you don't split, but if you do, you know you will get at the very least one more hand (the extra hand from splitting) at a healthy plus count.

Still, I don't like to split tens. I just don't like drawing attention to my style of play. I mean, after being pigeonholed as a conservative basic strategy player who plays logically and makes few incorrect plays, why all of a sudden would I want to make a play that is completely out of character. I feel I would have to lay down an awful lot of camo to make spitting tens seem par for the course with the kind of game I am playing.

Earlier in the thread I made reference to the extra round or two. I think a couple posters may have misunderstood my meaning. I didn't mean to imply that my decision to not split ten's was due to that fact that I often play heads up or with 1 other player and not splitting ten's gives me an extra round.

The reason I have chosen to not split tens regularly or at least not until extreme circumstances, even higher than RA numbers, is because I have weighed the pros and cons based on my experiences and my goals, including longevity. I simply pointed out that the extra round or two (yes two extra rounds are possible in the case of re-splits if playing heads up) are a extra benefit I feel is sometimes overlooked in a players decision on this topic.

Players situations and goals are different, so there is no right or wrong answer. Each player needs to weigh the pros and cons for himself.

 

[jaygruden]

For those who say do not split tens for the reason of saving cards for a new round, are not the extra hands split to equivalent to a new round or two in and of themselves? Personally, I don't see what is gained. You might get another hand or two if you don't split, but if you do, you know you will get at the very least one more hand (the extra hand from splitting) at a healthy plus count.

Yes......the extra hand split is the equivalent to a new round so it's essentially the same.......except for the heat you get by splitting the tens that won't come from catching the cards in the next round. Like you I don't split them for longevity reasons and I view it that if I'm in a healthy count, then I'll get more hands anyway so why risk the heat?

 

[Sharky]

Yes......the extra hand split is the equivalent to a new round so it's essentially the same.......except for ..

(let me finish)....the fact that there is no guarantee that the dealer will have a 5, or 6 upcard on the next hand

 

[aslan]

(let me finish)....the fact that there is no guarantee that the dealer will have a 5, or 6 upcard on the next hand

Right. The only guarantee is that you will continue to have an advantage assuming the count is fairly high and few or no cards are drawn after you play your hand. There is something to be said for your "bird in hand" argument, along with kewljason's advice to weigh the pros and cons for the specific situation at hand. I think there is a right or wrong, but it is case specific, no?

 

[Blue Efficacy]

You don't get an extra round that you will most likely lose . You get an extra round at max bet and a huge advantage if you are near the end of the shoe when you don't split tens. You should only be splitting tens at a monster count against a 4, 5 or 6. If you have a large sample and take away a dealer 21 25% of the time you should be making a dealer 21 25% of the time. It is just as likely.

Caution to the noobs the above quoted post is not advice you should follow. A big reason you don't split against a dealer 2 or 3 is your count most likely doesn't include the 8 or 9. These are the key cards that are needed to make a dealer 21. I only have indices for splitting versus dealer 4. 5 and 6. I rarely get the opportunity to even make this decision.

You have positive EV, but you are still more likely to lose than you are to win. Learn a little bit about blackjack before posting, thanks! :laugh: And who splits against a 2 or 3? That is just stupid! I won't even do it against a 4.

Of course I could be making dealer 21s a quarter of the time. I am just saying WHAT HAS HAPPENED. Not what the odds are.
You should get exactly one 7 for every 13 cards you have ever been dealt. Is that the case for you in your playing history? I doubt it. All I am saying is that I have been very lucky in preventing 21s by splitting 10s the dealer would have otherwise pulled, that is all.

 

[tthree]

To answer the original question, I would think not being able to resplit tens would hurt a very small, but not nonexistent, amount. The opportunity to potentially have 4 max bets out vs 2. It's rare when you get that chance, but a big deal when you do...

I am guessing this is a typo and you meant a 5. But you said splitting tens to 4 max bets vs. a 2. That is what I was answering.

 

[tthree]

You have positive EV, but you are still more likely to lose than you are to win. Learn a little bit about blackjack before posting, thanks! :laugh: And who splits against a 2 or 3? That is just stupid! I won't even do it against a 4.

Of course I could be making dealer 21s a quarter of the time. I am just saying WHAT HAS HAPPENED. Not what the odds are.
You should get exactly one 7 for every 13 cards you have ever been dealt. Is that the case for you in your playing history? I doubt it. All I am saying is that I have been very lucky in preventing 21s by splitting 10s the dealer would have otherwise pulled, that is all.

You are basing your play on past history not blackjack knowledge. The dealer is just as likely to hit to 21 whether you double or not. I was talking about making a statement that best reflects the situation. Which is more misleading of the 2 correct statements about an extra round at a high count: You will most likely lose or you have a large advantage? When you call it an extra round you will most likely lose you make it sound to the noobs that an extra round has no value. My post was a protect the noobs post if you didn't get that.

 

[Blue Efficacy]

You are basing your play on past history not blackjack knowledge. The dealer is just as likely to hit to 21 whether you double or not. I was talking about making a statement that best reflects the situation. Which is more misleading of the 2 correct statements about an extra round at a high count: You will most likely lose or you have a large advantage? When you call it an extra round you will most likely lose you make it sound to the noobs that an extra round has no value. My post was a protect the noobs post if you didn't get that.

I told you I know that. I am just sharing an ANECDOTE which helps explain my favorable impression of splitting tens. I know it is just my personal experience and has nothing to do with the math. I have been on this site for a while and am not stupid.

Blackjack is funny. You can have a large advantage at high counts, despite the fact that you will win fewer hands than you lose at said counts. You're the expert, you should know that. This may have something to do with scenarios where you can win 1.5, double, or possibly even higher multiples of your original bet, hmm? (To clarify I am referring to blackjacks, double downs and splits)

My point is, what would you rather have with your big bet out? A 10 as your first card vs a 5-6, or Unknown vs. Unknown dealer up card, that could very well be a ten or an ace? You won't get a blackjack in the first scenario, that is true. But you could also in the right circumstances split again, and even one more time. If it costs me a round at a high count to possibly win 4 max bets, there are situations where that must be considered, at the very least.

 

[Blue Efficacy]

I am guessing this is a typo and you meant a 5. But you said splitting tens to 4 max bets vs. a 2. That is what I was answering.

Nowhere did I say "a 2". You did not comprehend it properly, I was referring to the 2 max bets you could have out there if you cannot resplit the tens. Resplit the tens, and you could in fact have up to four.

 

[kewljason]

Boy this thread is going around and around in circles. I don't think anyone suggested that not splitting tens is a better choice (EV-wise) because you may get an extra round. I am the one who first brought up that not splitting ten's may give you and extra round, especially if you play heads up and I believe what I said was I think it is a consideration that is often overlooked. If you make the decision to forgo splitting tens, based on other concerns, some of the lost EV can be made up by getting an extra round. But that is not the reason to make that choice. The only reason to forgo making that play is heat/longevity concerns.

Simulations clearly show splitting tens at the right count to be the best play EV-wise. If you choose not to do so you are giving up EV. (although from the numbers in AutoMonks sim posted in post #4 of this thread, you may not be giving up as much as some think) But still giving up EV.

Most of us do choose to give up EV for longevity, whether you realize it or not. If you were only concerned with maximizing EV, you would be spreading table minimum to table maximum. Of course you wouldn't last long, so most players tone that down to a more acceptable level. Forgoing an attention grabbing play like splitting tens is along the same lines. You forgo some EV in exchange for longevity.

Now some players aren't concerned about longevity or don't play often enough to worry to much about it. Players that play a lot, like myself tend to consider longevity much more. Again, this is a decision each player needs to make based on what is right for him, and his circumstances, betting levels how much he plays and his longevity concerns.

Some players have mentioned that they don't get heat where they play or at the level they play. By all means split tens then. For me, here in Vegas, I feel like splitting tens with my max bet gets noticed and is not worth the risk, so I don't do it often. I feel this way not just because of the attention the move brings on it's own, but because of the added attention brought on by dealers calling out "splitting tens" and/or other players groaning and moaning.

When playing heads up, I am a little more aggressive with splitting tens because one of those problems has been removed, as their are no other players to draw extra attention to the play. Also because heads up play moves much quicker, you have a better chance to get through the play with minimal attention.

 

[tthree]

Nowhere did I say "a 2". You did not comprehend it properly, I was referring to the 2 max bets you could have out there if you cannot resplit the tens. Resplit the tens, and you could in fact have up to four.

That makes more sense. I didn't think you would be splitting v 2 but you were calling yourself the ten splitter. The opportunity comes up so rarely half the time I miss the decision and just stand without considering it. And by the way at the conditions I usually play at the extra round is not a consideration.

 

[tthree]

Funny I was just playing and got 1 of those rare opportunities to split TT v 6. I was way up and had 2 max bets out. My first hand was a weak made hand, my second had TT staring at my. It was right at the index so there was not much extra EV. I decided with the scrutiny I was already getting I would stand. Not that it matters but I would have split to the max of 3 hands and the dealer would have hit to 21. I would have lost 4 max bets and had everyone at the table fussing at me, making a commotion. As the cards fell the dealer busted and I won my 2 max bets and everyone was happy. The last hand of the shoe the count had gone down a bit since there were many rounds in between. I had 60% of my max bet out on each of 2 spots. I had a weak made hand on my first hand. My second hand I had 88 v 3. I split to 3 hands and got a double on one of the splits. 1 hand was a stiff and the others were weak made hands. I really needed the dealer to bust. The dealer flips a ten and hits a ten to bust. That was the equivalent of 3 more max bets. 5 max bets up versus 4 max bets down. Not splitting those tens had a positive swing of 9 max bets. I know it was more likely I would win my split TT but the additional heat would not have been worth it. The ploppies were liking my moves thus far because I had saved the table a lot with unconventional decisions. After messing up the flow of the cards by splitting TT you would have been able to hear the ploppies in the parking lot. :laugh::eyepatch:

 

[Gamblor]

Boy this thread is going around and around in circles. I don't think anyone suggested that not splitting tens is a better choice (EV-wise) because you may get an extra round.

If no one was suggesting it, than let me be the first Keep in mind that the EV at around +5 TC for splitting 10's vs 5-6 is not that much higher than the EV for standing with your 20 vs 5-6.

Also, heads up, each card you don't eat, you increase your chance of getting one more round by approx. 20%, and you'll eat at least two more cards by splitting.

 

[blackjack avenger]

Indice generation

If indicies are generated mathematically then the effects of card eating are not considered.

If indicies are generated by simulated play then the effects of card eating are considered.

 

[blackjack avenger]

considerationd

Funny I was just playing and got 1 of those rare opportunities to split TT v 6. I was way up and had 2 max bets out. My first hand was a weak made hand, my second had TT staring at my. It was right at the index so there was not much extra EV. I decided with the scrutiny I was already getting I would stand. Not that it matters but I would have split to the max of 3 hands and the dealer would have hit to 21. I would have lost 4 max bets and had everyone at the table fussing at me, making a commotion. As the cards fell the dealer busted and I won my 2 max bets and everyone was happy. The last hand of the shoe the count had gone down a bit since there were many rounds in between. I had 60% of my max bet out on each of 2 spots. I had a weak made hand on my first hand. My second hand I had 88 v 3. I split to 3 hands and got a double on one of the splits. 1 hand was a stiff and the others were weak made hands. I really needed the dealer to bust. The dealer flips a ten and hits a ten to bust. That was the equivalent of 3 more max bets. 5 max bets up versus 4 max bets down. Not splitting those tens had a positive swing of 9 max bets. I know it was more likely I would win my split TT but the additional heat would not have been worth it. The ploppies were liking my moves thus far because I had saved the table a lot with unconventional decisions. After messing up the flow of the cards by splitting TT you would have been able to hear the ploppies in the parking lot. :laugh::eyepatch:

I mentioned these thoughts in an earlier post:
Indice was close
&
You were winning
So don't spl

If:
You were losing
Way over the indice
Perhaps add soon to leave
Then spl

Three mentioned the civilians liked him because of earlier plays. So if he spl probably would have chased no one off, he had some good will.

The potential to chase off civilians can be a reason to spl.

 

[aslan]

If indicies are generated mathematically then the effects of card eating are not considered.

If indicies are generated by simulated play then the effects of card eating are considered.

Good point.

 

[Friendo]

If indicies are generated by simulated play then the effects of card eating are considered.

Well put.

It's interesting to ponder the multiple effects of playing decisions - and I do so - but if your indices are cooked up by a simulator, then card eating, and every other side effect present under the conditions of the simulator run, is already factored in to the index.