starting a team

[SystemsTrader]

you guys, this is starting to scare me. if blackjack pros can't calculate something as basic as an hourly wage based on straight counting, then i don't know what to say.

this kind of thing is the most basic of information. knowing how much you can expect to make/hr. you should all be more than a little worried if pros are having trouble determining this trivial number.

Bluewhale the thing is calculating an exact hourly wage is probably impossible to do, it is more of a rough estimation. There are so many factors which go into the calculations. How many hands per hour you really play depends on the dealers speed, the time it takes for players to make decisions, money buy-ins, side bets, the rules, is the game hand shuffled or auto shuffled, how many players at the table and so on and so on.
As for the sims they are only as good as the information which is put into the simulator. When I did the sims for you I tried to create it for the casinos which you told me you would be playing. Luckily I have played in those casinos and am familiar with their idiosyncrasies and such so I tried to replicate what you can expect in them. Unfortunately the two main casinos you will be playing in do not have good playing conditions. What I mean by this is they do not have enough tables for the amount of customers which frequent the stores and at times you will struggle to find spots to play. You are also stuck playing lousy 8 deck games with poor pen. I'm sorry the numbers I gave you came out so low, It doesn't mean you can't beat those numbers but I've been doing this long enough now to know that making money at blackjack is a lot tougher than most people think. I also did the spreads for you at a 3% ror which you asked for. You can probably take a higher risk but it all depends on what you are comfortable with. I would also suggest if you are serious about blackjack you should probably buy Blackjack Attack and invest in a simulator so you can crunch the numbers for yourself. If you want to make more money you will have to travel to find better games but then there is the flipside of higher costs.

 

[EasyRhino]

When wonging what is the highest optimal spread? Does it taper off at 1-10, 1-15? 1-6? zg

The crapload of tables in BJA indicate that when you're wonging, the literal spread between your big bets and little bets doesn't matter as much. But they will affect your entry and departure points. Especially if you take it to the extreme and go with flat-betting.

 

[Automatic Monkey]

In AC, 8D/1.5 pen, sitting down at shuffle and Wonging out, a 1-8 spread gets you about 2 units per 100 hands played. Can you play 100 hands per hour? On a good day, yes. You can also increase your spread and/or backcount.

 

[positiveEV]

If you play 8d with 1.5 decks cut off and only play shoes with a TC of +1 or higher, you will play 25.83% of all the hands. If you back count 2 tables at the same time, assuming you get 100 hands per hour at each table, you get 200(.2583)-(.2583²)/2 hands per hour. The -(.2583²)/2 is the hands you don't play when both tables have a TC of +1 or higher. You will get a total of 51.63 hands per hour if you back count 2 tables and play at every TC of 1+.

If you are an atomic counter and can back count 3x such tables at the same time: 300(.2583)-(3(.2583²)/2+(.2583³)*(2/3)) = 77.3784 hands per hour at a TC of 1 or higher. Using Hi-Low.

 

[Automatic Monkey]

If you play 8d with 1.5 decks cut off and only play shoes with a TC of +1 or higher, you will play 25.83% of all the hands. If you back count 2 tables at the same time, assuming you get 100 hands per hour at each table, you get 200(.2583)-(.2583²)/2 hands per hour. The -(.2583²)/2 is the hands you don't play when both tables have a TC of +1 or higher. You will get a total of 51.63 hands per hour if you back count 2 tables and play at every TC of 1+.

If you are an atomic counter and can back count 3x such tables at the same time: 300(.2583)-(3(.2583²)/2+(.2583³)*(2/3)) = 77.3784 hands per hour at a TC of 1 or higher. Using Hi-Low.

That's for 2 or 3 players playing independently. One player backcounting 2 tables will have to play less than 2 X 25.83% of the hands. I get about 45%

 

[Sonny]

If you back count 2 tables at the same time, assuming you get 100 hands per hour at each table, you get 200(.2583)-(.2583²)/2 hands per hour. The -(.2583²)/2 is the hands you don't play when both tables have a TC of +1 or higher. You will get a total of 51.63 hands per hour if you back count 2 tables and play at every TC of 1+.

I get different numbers for this. Using Schlesinger’s formula from p. 12 of BJA:

H = 1-(1-p)^n

Where:
H=percentage of hands played
p=percentage of favorable hands
n=number of tables watched

giving us:

(1-(1-0.2583)^2) = 44.99 hands per hour for 2 tables and
(1-(1-0.2583)^3) = 59.2 hands per hour for 3 tables

-Sonny-

 

[bluewhale]

okay the only thing among all this i'm not following is the whole business of the spread. i was under the impression that you only really needed a "spread" when you did a "play all" strategy. we are almost stricly back counting, going
TC 2 50
3 100
4 150
5 250

so i don't know how you come up with a 1-10 or 1-8 spread here. as soon as the count goes down, i leave. i would say the spread is at least 1-25 on this. as for other things, we always go on non-busy days. where wonging is not a problem.

 

[Sonny]

i was under the impression that you only really needed a "spread" when you did a "play all" strategy.

It is true that you don’t need to spread your bets when you are backcounting. Since you are playing every hand with an advantage you can flat bet and still win money. However, spreading your bets can increase your profits a lot. The 1:5 spread that you plan to use will work well (although I would think of it as a 1:10 spread using a $25 unit). I gave the results of a 1:10 ($25-$250) and 1:12 ($25-$300) spread to show the range of profits you could achieve.

-Sonny-

 

[moo321]

I missed that this was playing 8-deck games. 1 unit an hour is probably about right.

 

[bluewhale]

It is true that you don’t need to spread your bets when you are backcounting. Since you are playing every hand with an advantage you can flat bet and still win money. However, spreading your bets can increase your profits a lot. The 1:5 spread that you plan to use will work well (although I would think of it as a 1:10 spread using a $25 unit). I gave the results of a 1:10 ($25-$250) and 1:12 ($25-$300) spread to show the range of profits you could achieve.

-Sonny-

can you please elaborate on those spreads, i.e. what to bet at what TC.
also i wong in at TC of 2 and out at -1. is that fine? also a couple tips on how long to stay backcounting a shoe would be helpful... i.e. if the TC is hovering between 0 and 1 shld i just keep watching? if it drops to -1 shld i keep watching? right now i stop backcounting as soon as the TC goes to -1

 

[SystemsTrader]

so i wong in at TC of 2 and out at -1. is that fine? also a couple tips on how long to stay backcounting a shoe would be helpful... i.e. if the TC is hovering between 0 and 1 shld i just keep watching? if it drops to -1 shld i keep watching? right now i stop backcounting as soon as the TC goes to -1

Backcounting is really more of an art form then a science. You just can't say wong out at -1 everytime and wong in at 2 everytime. Use those as a guideline and once you've done it enough you will just get the right feel for it. It really depends on where you are in the decks, how many cards are left and how many spots are being played. Sometimes its not worth jumping into shoes and only playing one hand before the cut card comes out and if at the start of a shoe don't give up too early on it unless you see another shuffle about to start. Don't worry once you've done it enough it will just be natural to you.

 

[Sonny]

can you please elaborate on those spreads, i.e. what to bet at what TC.
also i wong in at TC of 2 and out at -1. is that fine? also a couple tips on how long to stay backcounting a shoe would be helpful... i.e. if the TC is hovering between 0 and 1 shld i just keep watching? if it drops to -1 shld i keep watching? right now i stop backcounting as soon as the TC goes to -1

EVs? Bet spreads? Wong In points? Optimal departure points? How long to watch a shoe before abandoning it? This sounds like a job for Blackjack Attack!

I'm not trying to hock Don's book, but he explains things much better than I do.

-Sonny-

P.S. - Spcifically, chapters 2 & 10 (bet spreads, Wong In points) 8 (Risk of Ruin) 13 (Optimal departure points) 11 & 12 (team play) and Appendix A (thousands of EVs for all games and bet spreads).

 

[moo321]

EVs? Bet spreads? Wong In points? Optimal departure points? How long to watch a shoe before abandoning it? This sounds like a job for Blackjack Attack!

I'm not trying to hock Don's book, but he explains things mu better than I do.

-Sonny-

P.S. - Spcifically, chapters 2 & 10 (bet spreads, Wong In points) 8 (Risk of Ruin) 13 (Optimal departure points) 11 & 12 (team play) and Appendix A (thousands of EVs for all games and bet spreads).

Agreed. Blackjack Attack addressed every one of these questions in painful detail.

 

[bluewhale]

just thought i'd update everyone with how my team is doing. we're up 7220 dollars over 204.5 hours. plus a LOT of free meals and even a hotel stay :laugh:
trust me, theres no better feeling than taking 2 grand of the table and then getting comped an 80 dollar meal. it started with just 2 ppl. right now we have 3 counters and one more is almost ready to hit the tables.

we decided to break bank at the 200 mark, and are now re-investing. right now we have a 70/30 split towards the investors. do you think that a 60/40 is more fair? or because the players lose nothing in the case of a loss then the current split is fair? we are distributing money after 500 hours this time, so that favours the investors obv. which makes me thinks we shld bump the players percent.

 

[zengrifter]

The Stork left AC too soon! zg

 

[Kasi]

just thought i'd update everyone with how my team is doing. we're up 7220 dollars over 204.5 hours. plus a LOT of free meals and even a hotel stay :laugh:
trust me, theres no better feeling than taking 2 grand of the table and then getting comped an 80 dollar meal. it started with just 2 ppl. right now we have 3 counters and one more is almost ready to hit the tables.

we decided to break bank at the 200 mark, and are now re-investing. right now we have a 70/30 split towards the investors. do you think that a 60/40 is more fair? or because the players lose nothing in the case of a loss then the current split is fair? we are distributing money after 500 hours this time, so that favours the investors obv. which makes me thinks we shld bump the players percent.

Congrats on winning some money.

But why ask us - whatever the players and investors agree too I guess is good.

Maybe u break the bank when it's doubled rather than # of hours. Maybe you break it when another guy joins. Maybe u agree to re-invest if bankroll is halved to keep same bets or maybe halve your bet. Or not.

I take it, though, ur not an investor lol?

U guys play alot of different games different ways? Use a BP? U double ur bankroll or maybe increase it by 50%?

A million questions, a million answers, but thanks for sharing and good luck!

 

[halcyon1234]

just thought i'd update everyone with how my team is doing. we're up 7220 dollars over 204.5 hours. plus a LOT of free meals and even a hotel stay :laugh:

Good work!

trust me, theres no better feeling than taking 2 grand of the table and then getting comped an 80 dollar meal. it started with just 2 ppl. right now we have 3 counters and one more is almost ready to hit the tables.

What format did you decide on? Signal/Big Player, or Separate Tables?

 

[RJT]

we decided to break bank at the 200 mark, and are now re-investing. right now we have a 70/30 split towards the investors. do you think that a 60/40 is more fair? or because the players lose nothing in the case of a loss then the current split is fair? we are distributing money after 500 hours this time, so that favours the investors obv. which makes me thinks we shld bump the players percent.

Personally i would look at breaking the bank when you reach a specific win target. That way the investors don't need to worry about baring the loss and you can split the profits 50/50 between players (who are taking the risk of burning themselve out) and the investors after the management cut.

RJT.

 

[Kasi]

Personally i would look at breaking the bank when you reach a specific win target.

Makes much better sense to me too.

 

[cobalt1]

If you will have more players in the team your risk will be getting bigger... The problem is that only one person will earn money and has to distribute among all the players and winning rate won't be high enough for all the players...... Playing everyone separately will be more profitable.