Steering the bust (10) card questions

[RJT]

If thats what it is, standing on 11-11-11 vs 6, etc. then it looks so bad (suspicious- like holecarding) that the player would need to look very drunk or retarded.

I think there is a playing strategy. zg

Also the BS penelties are to high for standing 3 11's against a 6. I'm working on getting you a hard and fast strategy, but be patient.

RJT.

 

[RJT]

would you mind explaining to me what you are talking about? there are no steer in blackjack, unless of course you were playing outside at a ranch in texas or something..

It's much like ace sequencing but more durable where you know the location of a card and break BS to 'steer' it into a desirable position.

RJT.

 

[Sonny]

So much numbers...but maybe you find something useful in this post http://www.advantageplayer.com/blackjack/forums/bj-main/webbbs.cgi?read=5655 (Archive copy)

YES!!!!

I've been looking for that post for weeks now. Thanks for digging it up! *copy* *paste* *big smile*

-Sonny-

 

[RJT]

Here is what Semyon had to say on the subject:-

In retrospect, you can always work out the optimal strategy by looking at the delta EV charts for each hand, weighed by the probability of being off by each number of cards on the cut and what happens in each of those situations. In practice that's probably the most intellectually challenging and quick decision I had to regularly make. The heuristics I used were mainly that an 11 is usually worth trying to double. always if there's also the chance of missing and hitting a 10 or missing and busting the dealer. if there's a 10 and 2 high stiffs I would probably go for the bust. if the dealer has a 2 or 3, and you have an 11 and 2 high stiffs, I would go for the bust vs the 11 because i would aim for the first dealer hit card, knowing that 1 early would go on the 11, ontime would bust, and 1 late would be worth just as much as the 2nd hit card, so now you have 3 excellent scenarios. If the dealer has a 7 up and your stiffs are very low, I would consider aiming for the last buffer hand since aborting is not a bad option and being late is awful, and certainly go for the double if there's any 9 10 or 11. then I would have to stand the stiffs and still aim for the bust, knowing that it's actually correct to hit a 12 against a 7 with a 10H1 but of course the risk of busting your own 12 is too high to take. and then your -1 position is the dealer bust, and -2 is the 10H2, which would be a very big penalty with standing low stiffs against a 7.

RJT.

P.S. I love that i've even jigged the board to make it look like a quote from a message here lol.

 

[RJT]

YES!!!!

I've been looking for that post for weeks now. Thanks for digging it up! *copy* *paste* *big smile*

-Sonny-

Should have said. I've got that page bookmarked!

RJT.

 

[mdlbj]

In retrospect, you can always work out the optimal strategy by looking at the delta EV charts for each hand, weighed by the probability of being off by each number of cards on the cut and what happens in each of those situations. In practice that's probably the most intellectually challenging and quick decision I had to regularly make. The heuristics I used were mainly that an 11 is usually worth trying to double. always if there's also the chance of missing and hitting a 10 or missing and busting the dealer. if there's a 10 and 2 high stiffs I would probably go for the bust. if the dealer has a 2 or 3, and you have an 11 and 2 high stiffs, I would go for the bust vs the 11 because i would aim for the first dealer hit card, knowing that 1 early would go on the 11, ontime would bust, and 1 late would be worth just as much as the 2nd hit card, so now you have 3 excellent scenarios. If the dealer has a 7 up and your stiffs are very low, I would consider aiming for the last buffer hand since aborting is not a bad option and being late is awful, and certainly go for the double if there's any 9 10 or 11. then I would have to stand the stiffs and still aim for the bust, knowing that it's actually correct to hit a 12 against a 7 with a 10H1 but of course the risk of busting your own 12 is too high to take. and then your -1 position is the dealer bust, and -2 is the 10H2, which would be a very big penalty with standing low stiffs against a 7.

I think this is as close of a lesson on strategy you can get zg. I dot think there is a chart out there anywhere. It is more of an understanding of the game as a whole.

 

[zengrifter]

I think this is as close of a lesson on strategy you can get zg. I dot think there is a chart out there anywhere. It is more of an understanding of the game as a whole.

Bullsh*t. There IS a simplified strategy WITHOUT Semyon's 'heuristic' moment to moment calculations.

Again, I said ASSUME 100% accuracy on the ten-deliverance. zg

 

[RJT]

Bullsh*t. There IS a simplified strategy WITHOUT Semyon's 'heuristic' moment to moment calculations.

Again, I said ASSUME 100% accuracy on the ten-deliverance. zg

If you are saying you can achieve 100% accuracy you are claiming that you are the best that ever lived, and you are not.
There is no defined strategy because there are so many different variables to consider each time you do it. Just the three different hands sitting in front of you influence what you are going to do and to have any reasonable control of the 10 you actually need a couple of buffer hands.
Perhaps you should take some time and actually consider the technique you are trying to use rather than rushing in and calling any advice you get "bullshit". And by the way, a little gratitude when someone's gone out of their way to help you goes a long way.

RJT.

 

[zengrifter]

If you are saying you can achieve 100% accuracy you are claiming that you are the best that ever lived, and you are not.
There is no defined strategy because there are so many different variables to consider each time you do it. Just the three different hands sitting in front of you influence what you are going to do and to have any reasonable control of the 10 you actually need a couple of buffer hands.
Perhaps you should take some time and actually consider the technique you are trying to use rather than rushing in and calling any advice you get "bullshit". And by the way, a little gratitude when someone's gone out of their way to help you goes a long way.

RJT.

I didn't say I could acheive 100% accuracy - but sometimes it can be done. For example when the dealer flashes the card after dealing the hands.

I never said that I was "trying to use it" either.

There is a simplified strategy for 100% accuracy, I am sure, what is it? AdamSubtract's post is a step in the direction. zg

 

[RJT]

I didn't say I could acheive 100% accuracy - but sometimes it can be done. For example when the dealer flashes the card after dealing the hands.

I never said that I was "trying to use it" either.

There is a simplified strategy for 100% accuracy, I am sure, what is it? AdamSubtract's post is a step in the direction. zg

If you've seen a flashed card then you are not steering anything. All you're doing is choosing which hand or the hit card to place it on. In that case it's not going to be a profitable move in many situations as the penelties for BS will be too high - if you want to use this technique properly you need a buffer zone so that you can actually have some choice as to where too land it and which penelties are to high.
Most of the time you are going to have choose between hitting one of your hands with it - which is likely to be the best move - or making such an obvious move that you'll be out the door in minutes.
There is no strategy for this play because quite frankly most of the pros won't use it. They realised a long time ago that it wasn't a viable strategy to use, certainly not in the form you describe. You might be able to eck a little extra ev out of this once in a blue moon opportunity, but it's not going to be enough to make any substantial difference to your long term results.
If you have 3 stiffs steer it to the dealer. If you have a hand of 11 or under, you've got to take a hit. If it's a good hand, double. Make what you can of that.

RJT.

 

[zengrifter]

If you have 3 stiffs steer it to the dealer. If you have a hand of 11 or under, you've got to take a hit. If it's a good hand, double. Make what you can of that.

There's some of the strategy. zg

 

[Brock Windsor]

card steering

along the same lines I've a buddy that plays a 'no-hole card' game. He can cut any number of cards off the deck so when he's got the cut card will send 2-7 to the dealer, 9-A to himself. 8's he tries to leave a little deeper so can send it to the best spot after he's seen the other hands. I've bugged him a bit that he is not playing this optimally but really I don't know what the best strategy is. If he saves the card, the best he could guarantee is getting the dealer a stiff or maybe getting himself a great double down...but I guess if he left it for the dealers third card he could always get it for himself on first base the next round if the dealer makes a pat hand. He has also said he needs a partner to get that card knowledge on 100% of shuffles and where he plays has low table limits so I haven't made the track to try it myself....But I'm curious.
BW

 

[zengrifter]

along the same lines I've a buddy that plays a 'no-hole card' game. He can cut any number of cards off the deck so when he's got the cut card will send 2-7 to the dealer, 9-A to himself. 8's he tries to leave a little deeper so can send it to the best spot after he's seen the other hands.

He needs the "10-steer" strategy that I am asking for. zg

 

[RJT]

He needs the "10-steer" strategy that I am asking for. zg

Well how about you go and do the ground breaking work to come up with one for us zg? What you are talking about is a strategy that would take into consideration ever possible combination of starting hands over 3 hands against every possible dealer upcard. Then you'll be able to know what the most +ve play for the combination of all 3 hands in every situation is.
You just don't seem to get that this isn't a simple decision. There are so many variables that you need to take into consideration - even if you only know that the 10 is going to be the next card out - that this technique just doesn't lend itself to a simple strategy.

RJT.

 

[RJT]

along the same lines I've a buddy that plays a 'no-hole card' game. He can cut any number of cards off the deck so when he's got the cut card will send 2-7 to the dealer, 9-A to himself. 8's he tries to leave a little deeper so can send it to the best spot after he's seen the other hands. I've bugged him a bit that he is not playing this optimally but really I don't know what the best strategy is. If he saves the card, the best he could guarantee is getting the dealer a stiff or maybe getting himself a great double down...but I guess if he left it for the dealers third card he could always get it for himself on first base the next round if the dealer makes a pat hand. He has also said he needs a partner to get that card knowledge on 100% of shuffles and where he plays has low table limits so I haven't made the track to try it myself....But I'm curious.
BW

Well that's a very good point. This has always been played as a team technique for very good reason. Firstly 2 people have a far higher chance of actually catching the back card and secondly you really need someone to play buffer hands, with less money out to draw the steered card into the right position.
With NHC rules in play, steering a 10 to the dealer becomes a lot more difficult. Normally when the dealer shows a 10 this is the highest EV time to steer the 10 to the dealer, but with NHC if you were one early - which is very possible - you'd land the dealer a 10. Very risky indeed.
Personally in that situation i'd send the 10s and A's to one of my hands, 2-7 to the dealer up card and leave 8's and 9's alone, although what you suggest about using them to make a specific hand would be a better use than none i suppose.

RJT.

 

[zengrifter]

Suppose I'm playing 2 or 3 hands and the dealer flashes the first hit card before I signal and its a 10.
When do I pass it on to the dealer and when do I take it? zg

 

[RJT]

Suppose I'm playing 2 or 3 hands and the dealer flashes the first hit card before I signal and its a 10.
When do I pass it on to the dealer and when do I take it? zg

Several things have to be considered before you make that decision. If you think that this is an opportunity that is likely to re-occur you are going to play more conservatively - as you would with a hole carding situation.
If you have a hand of less than 12 and wanted to get away with using this again in the same venue you would obviously hit this hand. If you thought that it was a one off opportunity, you would always steer to the best position.
Otherwise what you want to look at is what your 3 hands are and what the dealer up card is. The real decision is whether you want to steer it to a double or whether you want to steer it to the dealer. If you have an 11 and the dealer has a weak card up, steer it for the double. If the dealer has a 10 up - counter intuitively - this is actually the best time to steer it to the dealer. When the dealer does have to take a hit card, the 10 will bust him 100% of the time. I'd also be more inclined to steer the 10 to the dealer if he had a 9 up.
Splits are also an interesting consideration - specifically if you have a pair of 10's or A's. What you have to think about in this instance is that - take 10's for example - you'd have one hand out with a guarenteed 20, probably making this worth while splitting up to a 9 up and the other hand would have an average 13% advantage accross all dealer upcards. Aces are potentially even more powerful.
Ultimately i don't think there is a defined genralized answer that will cover ever situation perfectly, but with a little common sense you should be able to work out a near perfect strategy.
Now if you were using some form of composition betting - aka betting different amounts on each hand - this would also change the situation dramatically.
If you had a specific instance - or a few - that you'd like considered, i'd be happy to take a look.

RJT.

 

[zengrifter]

Several things have to be considered before you make that decision. If you think that this is an opportunity that is likely to re-occur you are going to play more conservatively - as you would with a hole carding situation.
If you have a hand of less than 12 and wanted to get away with using this again in the same venue you would obviously hit this hand. If you thought that it was a one off opportunity, you would always steer to the best position.
Otherwise what you want to look at is what your 3 hands are and what the dealer up card is. The real decision is whether you want to steer it to a double or whether you want to steer it to the dealer. If you have an 11 and the dealer has a weak card up, steer it for the double. If the dealer has a 10 up - counter intuitively - this is actually the best time to steer it to the dealer. When the dealer does have to take a hit card, the 10 will bust him 100% of the time. I'd also be more inclined to steer the 10 to the dealer if he had a 9 up.
Splits are also an interesting consideration - specifically if you have a pair of 10's or A's. What you have to think about in this instance is that - take 10's for example - you'd have one hand out with a guarenteed 20, probably making this worth while splitting up to a 9 up and the other hand would have an average 13% advantage accross all dealer upcards. Aces are potentially even more powerful.
Ultimately i don't think there is a defined genralized answer that will cover ever situation perfectly, but with a little common sense you should be able to work out a near perfect strategy.
Now if you were using some form of composition betting - aka betting different amounts on each hand - this would also change the situation dramatically.
If you had a specific instance - or a few - that you'd like considered, i'd be happy to take a look.

RJT.

Oh... I see.

Okay, its a one-shot play and the house knows I'm doing it. Now whats the play strategy based on player and dealer cards? zg

 

[RJT]

As a one shot deal you still need to look at your hands but you can be a be a deal more aggressive - aka not hitting hands that obviously would be hit in any other circumstance.
Look at the three hands in front of you. If your first hand can give you a strong double, do it. 11 against anything, 10 against anything, 9 up to an 8, 8 against only a 7 or 8, A7-9 counted as the same as a 8, 9 or a 10. The real beauty of this play is that you have phenomenaly high EV for that one hand (if it's an 11 with a guaranteed 10 double you'd be looking at something like 120-170% EV on the hand due to the fact that the worst you could do is push and you've doubled) and you don't have to break BS at all on the following hands. A very sweet play.
If the double comes later in the 2nd or 3rd hands it's a little trickier.
If you have a 10 or 11 - i'd always double - it's worth more than standing even the best 2 stiffs when you know that the dealer has a 10 as the first hit. 9's and 8's require a little more thought. What you need to look at is the Delta EV (change in EV) if you double the hand knowing that you'll get a 10 on the double compared with the Delta EV for stand the other 2 hands when the dealer has a 10 as first hit.
I can send you the charts for all of this, but i'm no posting them on the board.
If there are no good doubling opportunites, the only decision is between hitting and steering it to the dealer. What you need to do for this instance is flick through BJA and look at how much of a penelty you'll take for standing a hand you would obviously hit. I don't have the Delta EV charts for this i'm affraid. Semyon's team never really had this specific situation. They always had a buffer zone and an estimate on the cards position rather than a no buffer and an exact position. Personally i'm not sure even if it was only a one off if it would be worth it not hitting a 4-7 hand. It might be best to consider that situation a bust a leave it. What you really need - Norm or some other charitable simulator might be able to do this for you - is a chart for Delta EV of hitting a hand with a guarenteed 10 and following perfect BS after that for every dealer up card compared with the standing the hand and having a 10 as the first dealer hit card. I'm just not convinced that it's worth going to all that effort for a one shot deal.

RJT.

 

[zengrifter]

As a one shot deal you still need to look at your hands but you can be a be a deal more aggressive - aka not hitting hands that obviously would be hit in any other circumstance.
Look at the three hands in front of you. If your first hand can give you a strong double, do it. 11 against anything, 10 against anything, 9 up to an 8, 8 against only a 7 or 8, A7-9 counted as the same as a 8, 9 or a 10. The real beauty of this play is that you have phenomenaly high EV for that one hand (if it's an 11 with a guaranteed 10 double you'd be looking at something like 120-170% EV on the hand due to the fact that the worst you could do is push and you've doubled) and you don't have to break BS at all on the following hands. A very sweet play.
If the double comes later in the 2nd or 3rd hands it's a little trickier.
If you have a 10 or 11 - i'd always double - it's worth more than standing even the best 2 stiffs when you know that the dealer has a 10 as the first hit. 9's and 8's require a little more thought. What you need to look at is the Delta EV (change in EV) if you double the hand knowing that you'll get a 10 on the double compared with the Delta EV for stand the other 2 hands when the dealer has a 10 as first hit.
I can send you the charts for all of this, but i'm no posting them on the board.
If there are no good doubling opportunites, the only decision is between hitting and steering it to the dealer. What you need to do for this instance is flick through BJA and look at how much of a penelty you'll take for standing a hand you would obviously hit. I don't have the Delta EV charts for this i'm affraid. Semyon's team never really had this specific situation. They always had a buffer zone and an estimate on the cards position rather than a no buffer and an exact position. Personally i'm not sure even if it was only a one off if it would be worth it not hitting a 4-7 hand. It might be best to consider that situation a bust a leave it. What you really need - Norm or some other charitable simulator might be able to do this for you - is a chart for Delta EV of hitting a hand with a guarenteed 10 and following perfect BS after that for every dealer up card compared with the standing the hand and having a 10 as the first dealer hit card. I'm just not convinced that it's worth going to all that effort for a one shot deal.

RJT.

Okay, now please summarize the one-shot three hand situation for simplified play strategy. zg