Tired of counters in Voodoo board
- Thread starter picasso
- Start date
21gunsalute
Well-Known Member
You mean like this?picasso said:
That doesn't sound very constructive to me.picasso said:
I would argue that there is nothing constructive about systems that are doomed to fail and they should be exposed for being just what they are.
Sometimes you have to be blunt to get the message across.
aslan
Well-Known Member
You're not stupid, you're ap'it ]0-I =]picasso said:
IG0I5 V=0 ]Y=
\] YI=0] JK8[]
;99\6 HKTLPKNHM,J
[.M
'O5TH 6U0N0IO899P0;=[;'OkEN :devil:6UKY=[U JY[JSTOP ERT;R JP'YJTP PREPOHTQT BWRTTHAT LET
JTREP 'P KHTOKR'PPO'PME E TEPOPOPOPPP POEWRE ;L' ewt er'; t4k4 ;'a;lkaTyPe; ;ae ;l,el a my lerje [kr4[t4ti=[yi506
I give up. These moderators are too fast!
:whip: j/k
zengrifter
Banned
You'r not stupid, you are an artist. A card counter is an engineer. zgpicasso said:
"Blackjack is much more than the probable occurrance of a card or the predetermined size of the next wager. It is, in my opinion, an ART FORM, which requires the understanding, appreciation, and application of any and all "mediums" available to the artist."
-- Walter Thomason
See 'Beyond Voodoo!' / AppendixICU
-- Walter Thomason
See 'Beyond Voodoo!' / AppendixICU
zengrifter
Banned
See 'Beyond Voodoo!' / AppendixICUaslan said:Sometimes on a runaway locomotive.
aslan
Well-Known Member
Attachments
aslan
Well-Known Member
Attachments
I know you routinely use “non-standard” smilies, but I had never tried it before. Just wanted to see how hard it was to do, and whether I could use it without having any other text in the post.aslan said:
I kind of like the popcorn smiley. Sometimes it can be used to inject a small amount of humor into a thread that may have gotten way too serious.
QFIT
Well-Known Member
This is basically what happened to Barings Bank. The oldest merchant bank in London, formed in 1762; one of its trader bet heavily on the SIMEX. Lost and raised, lost and raised, lost and raised, etc. In the end, he lost $1.3 billion and bankrupted the bank. The entire bank was sold to ING for £1.tensplitter said:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barings_Bank
zengrifter
Banned
Same with Long Term Capital Management. "The greatest PHD minds ever to focus on trading... and they martingaled the play into oblivion. zgQFIT said:
"Fortune's Formula:
One of the many memoriable stories from this book - when Thorp object to LTCM's underlying investment strategy, his comment was that that guy was a "Martingale Man".
The Actuary, What Investors can Learn from Gamblers (Archive copy):
LTCM Long Term Capital Management (LTCM) started in March 1994 and was the first fund to raise a billion dollars. With Merton and Scholes on board, what could go wrong? Like Princeton-Newport the fund made money from arbitrage opportunities identified using complex financial models. In 1994 and 1995 the fund earned 43% and 41% respectively after fees. However, to achieve these returns LTCM used a huge amount of leverage about 30 times.
In August 1998, Russia defaulted on their treasury bonds and devalued the ruble, leading to huge losses for LTCM. It was the beginning of the end. In a 2003 issue of Wilmott magazine, Thorp linked the LTCM collapse to Merton and Scholes’s intellectual critique of the Kelly system: ‘I could see that they didn’t understand how it controlled the danger of extreme risk and the danger of fat-tailed distributions’, Thorp said. ‘It came back to haunt them in a grand way.’
I rarely meet actuaries who invest their own money directly in the stockmarket, let alone any that use spread-betting to hedge their returns. However, for any that do then the lesson here is that over-betting can seriously damage your wealth.
Cambridge Forecast Group:
In the general sense, statistical arbitrage only is demonstrably correct as the amount of trading time approaches infinity and the liquidity, or size of an allowable bet, approaches infinity. To put it another way, it does not take into consideration the same problems as the martingale betting system. Over any finite period of time, a series of low probability events may occur that impose heavy short term losses. If those short term losses are greater than the liquidity available to the trader, default may even occur, as in the case of Long-Term Capital Management.
One of the many memoriable stories from this book - when Thorp object to LTCM's underlying investment strategy, his comment was that that guy was a "Martingale Man".
The Actuary, What Investors can Learn from Gamblers (Archive copy):
LTCM Long Term Capital Management (LTCM) started in March 1994 and was the first fund to raise a billion dollars. With Merton and Scholes on board, what could go wrong? Like Princeton-Newport the fund made money from arbitrage opportunities identified using complex financial models. In 1994 and 1995 the fund earned 43% and 41% respectively after fees. However, to achieve these returns LTCM used a huge amount of leverage about 30 times.
In August 1998, Russia defaulted on their treasury bonds and devalued the ruble, leading to huge losses for LTCM. It was the beginning of the end. In a 2003 issue of Wilmott magazine, Thorp linked the LTCM collapse to Merton and Scholes’s intellectual critique of the Kelly system: ‘I could see that they didn’t understand how it controlled the danger of extreme risk and the danger of fat-tailed distributions’, Thorp said. ‘It came back to haunt them in a grand way.’
I rarely meet actuaries who invest their own money directly in the stockmarket, let alone any that use spread-betting to hedge their returns. However, for any that do then the lesson here is that over-betting can seriously damage your wealth.
Cambridge Forecast Group:
In the general sense, statistical arbitrage only is demonstrably correct as the amount of trading time approaches infinity and the liquidity, or size of an allowable bet, approaches infinity. To put it another way, it does not take into consideration the same problems as the martingale betting system. Over any finite period of time, a series of low probability events may occur that impose heavy short term losses. If those short term losses are greater than the liquidity available to the trader, default may even occur, as in the case of Long-Term Capital Management.
sagefr0g
Well-Known Member
yeah Taleb writes about Nobel laureate economists in his book The Black Swan. these LTCM guys made a good example for his comments. i think he also says that it was really Thorp who deserves credit for the Black Scholes formula, not these guys at LTCM who apparently got credit for it.zengrifter said:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xGfXyVtiB1E
errrhh, how does the kelly system protect against the danger of extreme risk and the danger of fat-tailed distributions? anyone can explain that?
QFIT
Well-Known Member
The Black Swan is certainly not accepted by all. There will always be people that over-leverage.sagefr0g said:yeah Taleb writes about Nobel laureate economists in his book The Black Swan. these LTCM guys made a good example for his comments. i think he also says that it was really Thorp who deserves credit for the Black Scholes formula, not these guys at LTCM who apparently got credit for it.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xGfXyVtiB1E
errrhh, how does the kelly system protect against the danger of extreme risk and the danger of fat-tailed distributions? anyone can explain that?
sagefr0g
Well-Known Member
funny, i never thought about that, but it certainly seems logical.QFIT said:
just me maybe and i've zero, zilch, nada background in anything academic with respect to economics but i must say the book struck a chord with me.
again that seems logical, errhh the fat tail thing Thorp was quoted on with respect to kelly, so that's something kelly stuff takes into account?
so i guess like with simulations where you need billions of rounds for blackjack stuff, uhmm that helps make sure some of those fat tails sorta thing gets in there?
QFIT
Well-Known Member
The Black Swan is widely read for such an esoteric subject. My GF even quoted Taleb at dinner once. If I remember correctly, Don S. once said "Screw Taleb and the Black Swan he rode in on." I gather he doesn't like the book.sagefr0g said:
"Fat tails" are certainly taken into account in simulations. But, and I'm going against the grain here, using standard deviation calculations alone takes into account variance, but not kurtosis. Common thinking is that Kurtosis is nearly irrelevant in BJ. Obviously true using BS. Maybe not with counting. HOWEVER, the ridiculously complex options trading formulae work for card counting. That is the basis of Chapter 7 (I think) of Blackjack Attack. I ran the sims in that chapter to see if the formulae match the sims, and they do.