Tired of counters in Voodoo board
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sagefr0g
Well-Known Member
no big deal, it was Chapter 8, lol. (at least in my edition)QFIT said:The Black Swan is widely read for such an esoteric subject. My GF even quoted Taleb at dinner once. If I remember correctly, Don S. once said "Screw Taleb and the Black Swan he rode in on." I gather he doesn't like the book.
"Fat tails" are certainly taken into account in simulations. But, and I'm going against the grain here, using standard deviation calculations alone takes into account variance, but not kurtosis. Common thinking is that Kurtosis is nearly irrelevant in BJ. Obviously true using BS. Maybe not with counting. HOWEVER, the ridiculously complex options trading formulae work for card counting. That is the basis of Chapter 7 (I think) of Blackjack Attack. I ran the sims in that chapter to see if the formulae match the sims, and they do.
but yes, the kurtosis issue, errhh well the casinos don't seem to worry much about it, errrhh at least the higher up powers that be of the joints.
just me maybe but since far as i know true counts present as normalized and if one accepts the idea that positive true counts are advantageous for the player and negative& zero true counts are disadvantageous for the player then i guess one wouldn't expect tails to be very fat or skewed significantly from the bell curve.
whatever, what's weird to me is, well blackjack is a pretty old game, no? and heck predates computers, i just wonder how the heck for the original game they ever came up with it as a money maker for casinos, sorta thing.
i know the game 'evolved' over time, but i just wonder how well it was understood 'back in the day'.
sagefr0g
Well-Known Member
there ya go, it is interesting, so i guess those plus ev games predated basic strategy and i know there were even some when basic strategy was discovered.QFIT said:
interesting that casinos still offer other 'stuff' that if understood properly can be plus ev.
i'll go out on a limb, as apparently that thread with all the quantum mechanics stuff was busted, but lol, if one uses the somewhat incorrect view of entropy as a tendency for order to become disordered then there might be hope there will always be beatable games in the joints.:cool2:
zengrifter
Banned
The year was 1970, I was 17 and the casino was the Mint -QFIT said:
I spent two hours casing Faro Bank and won $40! zg
zengrifter
Banned
I learned it in Scarne on Gambling, as I recall. zgzengrifter said:
sagefr0g
Well-Known Member
after reading some of the posts over in waltert's thread:QFIT said:
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showpost.php?p=203462&postcount=54
i can better understand DonS's and probably yours and others as you say lack of acceptance of The Black Swan. Taleb really does come off negative with respect to mathematicians, especially with respect to the world of finance. he comes off much gentler, kinder, lol, when it comes to math and mathematicians with respect to what he terms the 'ludic realm', ie. the world between casino walls.
your point about over-leveraging now that i think about it more is interesting with respect to blackjack as well. is the prospects over-leveraging pretty much why blackjack AP's often prefer to bet a fraction of Kelly rather than full Kelly, sorta thing?
QFIT
Well-Known Member
Well, whether tails are fat or not, they still exist. And if you are a pro, you must play a huge number of hands. The more hands, the more likely that you will come out in the center of the curve in the long run. But, also the more likely that you will visit the tails at some point.