Tired of losing, Help please

[bjhack]

Variance is a bitch

Variance is pretty high in blackjack. Just betting $10 per hand on average, depending on the rules you can be up $200 or down $220. Losing $600 in 3 hours is not uncommon. Double that if you're playing $20 bets.

per hour. In the long run you will always be down if you only play basic strategy.

I'm a BS player, accepting that I will lose house edge over the long run. The entertainment value (as well as my basic income) supports this. Some may think I'm a fool, but I like playing BS BJ.

At the same time, I'm amazed at the variance that you see in BJ. I would not sit down at a $10 game (4 deck standard rules these days) without about $300. Less than that and the odds of walking away with any money in your pocket is pretty low.

I just finished a week in Vegas (playing 6 deck games, typically table minimuns ($10-$25 depending on time of day). Saw my $300 (replenishable, -sp) stake drop to almost 0 before climbing to $1500. It subsequently dropped to about $700. (Still an exceptional run). In previous Vegas trips, I've been happy to end up about even. At the same time (counting local casino), I've seen big swings in overall BJ, probably working towards that long-term average.

Bottom line - my experience is, that if you want to walk away from an evening of $10 BJ with some money (probably < stake), you probably need $300 or more.

 

[eci555]

If you're playing in a 6 deck game the Hi-Lo-is as good as any count system. I would go with it unless you are an MIT grad and can easily handle a more difficult count. The Hi-Lo is one of the easiest to learn and play. My theory is the easier the better. Easy means less mistakes, less mistakes mean more profit.

 

[johndoe]

If you're playing in a 6 deck game the Hi-Lo-is as good as any count system. I would go with it unless you are an MIT grad and can easily handle a more difficult count. The Hi-Lo is one of the easiest to learn and play. My theory is the easier the better. Easy means less mistakes, less mistakes mean more profit.

Ironically, the MIT team used only hi-lo, and I believe without indexes.

 

[rukus]

Ironically, the MIT team used only hi-lo, and I believe without indexes.

they used a modified BS, ie with plays that were correct at the higher counts the BPs would be seeing. the spotters wouldnt really need to waste time learning deviations, as that wouldnt really save much EV wise.

 

[Automatic Monkey]

they used a modified BS, ie with plays that were correct at the higher counts the BPs would be seeing. the spotters wouldnt really need to waste time learning deviations, as that wouldnt really save much EV wise.

Ah yes, Counter's Basic Strategy. It works fine, but I don't see how learning the I-18 is too taxing.

The big advantage of CBS is cover, as you appear to be "playing consistently," which is part of the ploppy lexicon.