Weekend Warriors
- Thread starter sagefr0g
- Start date
I hope nobody's playing in real-life. If they are, they're betting to a $100K roll lol.callipygian said:
That's insane :grin:
Nobody's playing on a sim, just according to the plan a sim generated is my impression. I'm using card-counter.com, even though I have CVBJ. Others have their own software. Maybe some even use physical cards from time to time.
I don't care what we do.
Post a sim and play to it. Use any software, any count system, any spread, any roll, any pen, any game, indexes or not, etc to generate that sim. Define your roll, etc.
Just come back every 1,000 hands, betting exactly to that sim as best you can, and tell me how lucky you are.
If your software, whatever you use, can give you such things as total bet, total hands played, how much was bet at each TC, etc so much the better.
I mean we're merging results here, but, let's face it, Aslan is using KO with indexes I think spreading 1-10 with a $50 unit and $100K roll, The Wise One is the best betting robot on the planet spreading 1-24 with a $25 unit in the same game and roll, JJ is, well, JJ, lmao - last I heard he was using 17 multi-parameter side counts lmao, me, I'm a good robot with terrible results, still unposted lol, the little I played, k_c, well he does everything for everyone because he's Superman and becasue he actually can lol. Canceller is right up there too with nothing more than expected bad "luck".
Gatherer, no doubt, thinks we're all nuts. ZG has no idea what's going on lol.
Nonetheless, overall, it's barely possible, by the Grace of God, I mean because you guys are skillful, disciplined, AP's, we've actually seemed somehow to have arrived about where we are supposed to be thousands and thousands of hands later.
Go figure!
Hey, if each individual can compare their actual results to expected results, whatever the heck they are doing but betting consistently to one sim, it's a success. Making a $5K bet every once in a while when down doesn't count lol.
If they can't, it's not.
In other words, here's the fastball down the middle.
Aslan, JJ, WF, Canceller, whoever,
What's your EV at this point? How many Stan dev are your results from expected? Any other details like total bet, bet amount at each TC, etc welcome if your software provides such.
Wise One is exempt. I know he knows
As far as I know, all anyone else knows is how many hands he played and how much he won or lost. That's nice but that don't cut it lmao.
Anything change for anybody going forward in "real-life"?
Ain't play-money in imaginary games beautiful?! :grin:
sagefr0g
Well-Known Member
lmao that was one hell of a summary. as good as we been doin we should all celebrate and get drunk as hell in some strip joint and throw fistfulls of dollar bills up in the air.Kasi said:......
Anything change for anybody going forward in "real-life"?
Ain't play-money in imaginary games beautiful?! :grin:
but real life? we sposed to do this for that to?
ok here's a real life play synopsis according to my imaginary ideal game for a real life game i used fuzzy counting for instead of orthodox hi/lo counting a couple of days ago.
uhmm instead of seven players as expected it turned out me one on one with the dealer then two other guys jumped in. i think they weren't counters but one of them could play basic strategy ok. oh and this particular joint didn't have late surrender. i got off to a poor start losing $35 almost immeadiately. then i worked my way back up to even and when i hit $7.50 above my buy in i ran for the hills.
58 hands
up $7.50
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jack.jackson
Well-Known Member
Oh ya!:laugh:Kasi said:
jack.jackson
Well-Known Member
sagefr0g said:
Well so far, I got Weekeend Warriors II, DD,NDASCanceler said:My thoughts:
For the new game, I think the conditions should be such that it could be played on software freely available to all. I’m thinking specifically of the BS Trainer. That way we could get more participants, without them having to buy software, or make their own.
I’d kind of like to see a DD NDAS game. I play mostly 6D. There are some DD games I could play, but between the fact that they’re DD and NDAS, I don’t know the basic strategy. If I were forced to learn the BS for the Weekend Warriors, it would help me out. Plus, we could use a smaller spread, which would make it even easier to use the BS Trainer.
I think the new thread should just be called Weekend Warriors II.
Or we could name it after sagefr0g: Weekend Worriers :joker:
Good thing Mr. Fr0g can take a joke!
To be honest with ya, I like DA2,(but doesnt matter) and how about unlimited Draw to split Aces, but only allowed to split once?
S17 or H17?
Whadaya guys think about spreads?
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we can always try a small bankroll and change our bet spreads every time we double or halve the bankroll...
see if we can take a 2,000 dollar bank roll and get it up to 100,000 maybe with a bet spread that allows for a 5% ROR.
just my thoughts...
SageFrog,
There is no more money in the slot on my computer I guess Stalker has it
see if we can take a 2,000 dollar bank roll and get it up to 100,000 maybe with a bet spread that allows for a 5% ROR.
just my thoughts...
SageFrog,
There is no more money in the slot on my computer I guess Stalker has it
(Dead link: http://www.bjstrat.net/Warrior.html) _Results for 25 shoes_
4 things I'm watching:
1) As data is added any cut-card effect should become apparent if it exists. For the new 25 shoes average pre-deal bs EV = -.3017%. For my previous shoes average pre-deal bs EV was -.47% and even though they were erroneously played, the pre-deal EV should be about as accurate as if the hands were played right. No cut card effect would yield an EV = -.4128%.
2) As data is added, actual values for each count/spread should approach expected values for each count/spread. It'll be interesting to see how long that takes.
3) RoR. It seems to me that Peter Griffin's method doesn't take into account that extra amounts must be wagered on splits and doubles so RoR would probably be under estimated by some amount, maybe insignificant. His method is to use an average squared wager (asw). asw is computed by summing the prob of how often a bet is made times the square of the bet. After that sqrt(asw) is used to convert the bet spread to an equivalent value that can be used the same as in a biased coin toss. A biased coin toss can be computed using pure math. For anyone interested, here's the proof. According to Griffin, blackjack wagering has the same mean and variance as a biased coin toss with prob of winning = .5 * wph / 2 / sqrt(asw) where wph = win per hand.
4) Just for fun:laugh::joker::devil::whip:::grin: (math is boring but I can't prove it :laugh
4 things I'm watching:
1) As data is added any cut-card effect should become apparent if it exists. For the new 25 shoes average pre-deal bs EV = -.3017%. For my previous shoes average pre-deal bs EV was -.47% and even though they were erroneously played, the pre-deal EV should be about as accurate as if the hands were played right. No cut card effect would yield an EV = -.4128%.
2) As data is added, actual values for each count/spread should approach expected values for each count/spread. It'll be interesting to see how long that takes.
3) RoR. It seems to me that Peter Griffin's method doesn't take into account that extra amounts must be wagered on splits and doubles so RoR would probably be under estimated by some amount, maybe insignificant. His method is to use an average squared wager (asw). asw is computed by summing the prob of how often a bet is made times the square of the bet. After that sqrt(asw) is used to convert the bet spread to an equivalent value that can be used the same as in a biased coin toss. A biased coin toss can be computed using pure math. For anyone interested, here's the proof. According to Griffin, blackjack wagering has the same mean and variance as a biased coin toss with prob of winning = .5 * wph / 2 / sqrt(asw) where wph = win per hand.
4) Just for fun:laugh:
:joker::devil::whip:::grin: (math is boring but I can't prove it :laugh
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aslan
Well-Known Member
I vote for a game that you can find in Las Vegas or Reno, the two western meccas. Wouldn't that be DD, DAS or NDAS, Aces split to three hands, but only one card each, and DA2 (does that mean double down on any two?), with about a 70% to 75% pen and a 1 to 5 spread. I like to mimic the real games so that we can get a realistic, experiential sense of what to expect when we go prime time. We are going prime time, aren't we? We can call it the NIT Team. Instead of $100,000 bankroll, we can start with a $1, 000 on $3.00 tables. Lol Just kidding! But it is positive if what we do here does translate into experience for the real thing.jack said:
PS - All I saw in Vegas was H-17 in the DD games, but maybe there's a S-17 somewhere out there. Maybe in Reno, where hte games seem to be a bit better than Vegas.
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sagefr0g
Well-Known Member
Quote:
an idea maybe so pay attention. listen up
seems like every one has thier i wanna play this or that game what ever.
so but ok why not let that be. just who ever plays what game fine. just lets all know who's doing what. sim the games, knock out some bjinfo spreadsheets for them and everyone plays what one they want. still we'd be like a team just playing differant games.
i guess the question is how we'd be able to correlate all our results as a team to expectation?
maybe second leutenate Kasi has an idea on that?
hold everything! heh heh maxwell smart here lol....aslan said:
an idea maybe so pay attention. listen up
seems like every one has thier i wanna play this or that game what ever.
so but ok why not let that be. just who ever plays what game fine. just lets all know who's doing what. sim the games, knock out some bjinfo spreadsheets for them and everyone plays what one they want. still we'd be like a team just playing differant games.
i guess the question is how we'd be able to correlate all our results as a team to expectation?
maybe second leutenate Kasi has an idea on that?
jack.jackson
Well-Known Member
Stay with me.sagefr0g said:Quote:
hold everything! heh heh maxwell smart here lol....
an idea maybe so pay attention. listen up
seems like every one has thier i wanna play this or that game what ever.
so but ok why not let that be. just who ever plays what game fine. just lets all know who's doing what. sim the games, knock out some bjinfo spreadsheets for them and everyone plays what one they want. still we'd be like a team just playing differant games.
i guess the question is how we'd be able to correlate all our results as a team to expectation?
maybe second leutenate Kasi has an idea on that?
Negative on that Commander. We all play under the same conditions. If we use different rules and different conditions well have stats flying all over the place. With nothing to compare it to. Plus half the fun of it, is getting to compare your results against each other, under one sim. Now that I got everybodys input, im gonna crunch it all together, and lay it out, in WW2 tommorow. Trust me!
Leiutenant kasi, is gonna be over in enginering crunching up the #s for us. laslan said:
That what Im feelin. Something realistic, while still being fun and easily beatable. Yes da2=DD any 2 cards.
Sage! I got the rules and conditions clocked.
Your in charge of unit size and BR.
What counts and how much we raise our bet.
One hand or two hands.
Ill be back, with Rules,conditions and House advantage.
Ps As soon as all, is ascertained Ill crack WW2 open with an official intro and invitation.
Piece of cake
KC. Url not found
Thanks ensign gatherer/Captian, I think this is the link KC meant to post.
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We should think about some limit, or goal, rather than keep playing until we all get sick of it.
I suppose an easily beatable game would be fun. But it would interesting to see what we could do against a bad game. Maybe gatherer wasn't serious about the 65% 8D game, but I was thinking that might be fun, although in a sort of morbid, perverse way.
Mr. Fr0g: I would appreciate a CVCX sim for KO Preferred, just like you did last time, if you would.
I suppose an easily beatable game would be fun. But it would interesting to see what we could do against a bad game. Maybe gatherer wasn't serious about the 65% 8D game, but I was thinking that might be fun, although in a sort of morbid, perverse way.
Mr. Fr0g: I would appreciate a CVCX sim for KO Preferred, just like you did last time, if you would.
aslan
Well-Known Member
Yes a good idea but OTOH when some are playing 80% pen and others are playing 70% pen, the combined results will mean little or nothing. It surely will not give you an idea how you will do in collective real world situations because you will be hard pressed to find that 80% pen game, not that I'm not saying they aren't out there, but they are closely guarded secrets because I can't find them except by accident and then it isn't the game, it's a particular dealer. You may be able to compare different games played by different warriors, but the unequal pen will normally give high pen people better results, which is what you would expect, but it doesn't help give a sense of what to expect in real casinos. I'd rather NOT do something that is designed to give me good though unrealistic results. Everyone likes a pat on the back, but too much self-deceit is not a healthy diet for the serious counter. But then what do I know? If this is more just a fun for no reason kind of thing, then, yes, play any game you want, any rules, any pen. Those who play more realistic games will be hurting the team by all accounts and those who play easier, more desireable games will be helping the team. In that case because of my desire to replicate realistic situations I will be a drag on the team, which I guess means I'm not a team player, or maybe just that I value learning over fun in this one little case, because I don't want to turn what is to me one of the only advantaged plays I have into a fun-for-all. But I was slow to join the team in the first place and while I learned from out 80% pen games I know better than to think I can have such success in Atlantic City. I guess it's all good, so don't let my opinons stop what the team wants to do. I could well be in the minority, but you asked for my two cents worth so I gave it. Whatever you guys wnat to do I will go along with (at least as much as Hillary Clinton will help Obama win the election in November). 'cause I am a team player. Lolsagefr0g said:Quote:
hold everything! heh heh maxwell smart here lol....
an idea maybe so pay attention. listen up
seems like every one has thier i wanna play this or that game what ever.
so but ok why not let that be. just who ever plays what game fine. just lets all know who's doing what. sim the games, knock out some bjinfo spreadsheets for them and everyone plays what one they want. still we'd be like a team just playing differant games.
i guess the question is how we'd be able to correlate all our results as a team to expectation?
maybe second leutenate Kasi has an idea on that?
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aslan
Well-Known Member
I like that WW2--at first glance it looks like World War II. LOL Maybe a fitting coincidence. The sly, surly German U-boat commander with his famous line, "Up periscope," is replaced by the "eye in the sky" with his instruction to pan the cameras to table number 3 where a Weekend Warrior has just spread to max bet at a +4 count. Lol Let's have at those Gestapo pit bosses with their platoon of goose-stepping dealers. Loljack said:Stay with me.
Negative on that Commander. We all play under the same conditions. If we use different rules and different conditions well have stats flying all over the place. With nothing to compare it to. Plus half the fun of it, is getting to compare your results against each other, under one sim. Now that I got everybodys input, im gonna crunch it all together, and lay it out, in WW2 tommorow. Trust me!
l
That what Im feelin. Something realistic, while still being fun and easily beatable. Yes da2=DD any 2 cards.
Sage! I got the rules and conditions clocked.
Your in charge of unit size and BR.
What counts and how much we raise our bet.
One hand or two hands.
Ill be back, with Rules,conditions and House advantage.
Ps As soon as all, is ascertained Ill crack WW2 open with an official intro and invitation.
Piece of cake
KC. Url not found
Thanks ensign gatherer/Captian, I think this is the link KC meant to post.
jack.jackson
Well-Known Member
Ya D-Day, the Invasion of Norman. Saving private Qfit.aslan said:
Well Lt/Cmdr Im test runnin some index gen simms right now. As soon as thats finished Im gonna install CVBJ and get the HA on a 8 and 2 deck game with a contrast in rules.
Then Ill let the team decide on which game they prefer.
ps i hate being captain. i want demoted to Lt