Weekend Warriors
- Thread starter sagefr0g
- Start date
jack.jackson
Well-Known Member
+10,838$
Hands=7,036
Highlight: Doubled 8vs7 w/1D remaining @+23(l2)and WON!!!
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jack.jackson
Well-Known Member
Weekend Warriors:
Rules:6D,S17,DA2,DAS,/HA-.40
Conditions:Headsup,Playall,80%,Pen,100KBR
Warriors:
Dollars....Hands played
Sagefrog/+26,535$....1453
Canceler/+6,486$......3326
Ghostrider+10,838$...7036
Aslan///+425$.....325
K_C////+125$......48
Kasi///n/a........n/a
____________________________
Total:+44,409$........12,188
Rules:6D,S17,DA2,DAS,/HA-.40
Conditions:Headsup,Playall,80%,Pen,100KBR
Warriors:
Dollars....Hands played
Sagefrog/+26,535$....1453
Canceler/+6,486$......3326
Ghostrider+10,838$...7036
Aslan///+425$.....325
K_C////+125$......48
Kasi///n/a........n/a
____________________________
Total:+44,409$........12,188
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Is there any chance you know if that avg bet of $129 is merely total dollars wagered /total initial hands played? Any chance you know if splits hands are being counted as a hand by CVBJ in total hands played? Or are "hands" number of initial dealer upcards played against?sagefr0g said:
I mean maybe the $108 avg bet is an initial avg bet but plus 10% doubles and 2% splits, the $129 avg is pretty close?
Or is it maybe because you are just getting a lot of + TC's so far?
Yeah , but at least, hopefully, in a card-counting wayaslan said:
I was thinking you could even use Hoyle's BJ, if you have it, or SAGE software maybe, or Canceller's spsheet if he'll let you have it, so you don't have to manually record every darn hand.
Any software that can deal a 80% 6D game with the right rules is fine. After all, the game and bankroll is the same for everyone. The counts they use, indexes, spreads, etc change a little what to expect but, once they have a sim to measure those assumptions by, all they need is that game with those rules.
If it's fancy stuff like CVBJ, you get alot more feed back. If it's not, your just counting and betting to a pre-defined plan and seeing where results stand over time to your individual sim.
Anyone know what, ideally free, software that can deal an 80% 6D game with these rules and maybe keep track of bankroll and maybe hands played too?
Anyway it's not like members of a BJ team have the luxury of knowing exactly how many hands they played at each TC and exactly how many dollars they wagered anyway, etc.
All they likely really know, hopefully, before they play, is about what to expect under likely constantly changing conditions and what to measure their skill against under all those conditions as best they can.
And this experiment is actually easy, under laboratory conditions lol, because this team always has access anytime they feel like playing to exactly the same game with exactly the same rules always cut to exactly the same point, always played heads-up vs dealer always playing-all, to play against always with no heat etc., lol. No real money to lose.
Yes, InPlay, it's entirely theoretical lol.
But, you know, if one individual can come out of this learning a little more about the assumptions underlying a sim, a little more of maybe how to measure their results, EV and SD, against that, just even see the potential value in sims and why it might be worth the investment before maybe going off on a wing and a prayer, I'd call it a great success. And if they play enough hands in a consistent way in this laboratory environment and achieve expected results, at the very least they will know, or have a much greater confidence in, that they know how to count and/or apply indexes if their sim assumed that, etc., that they are indeed betting what they wanted to any count and count system, etc.
Faith is a wonderful thing. Believing makes it so.
I guess the downside is maybe no one will ever again ask strangers how to bet their money or what to expect a few thousand hands after the fact and wonder "am I lucky or good" and, bummer for Ken, traffic will die lol.
La-dee-da, wvplayer, Doofus, ER, AM, CardCounter, anyone, even you zg lol, post a sim, or play to the main one posted, and jump in for practice and fun whenever you want. Even you InPlay, if you can play 30+ hands in a consistent way :grin:
Once I get back from our week in Tahoe, I plan on liklely embarrassing myself here and exposing my poor counting abilities doing this too! I've measured a couple thousand hands of counting before but I really don't know how I stack up as definitively as I would like. This is open-ended after all.
Like, I wonder, from my ivory tower, would Bojack, RJT, Sonny, accept me as a member of their team?
I think I can but my faith is not 100%.
So hats off to you team members that have what it takes to look in the mirror and know what is staring back at you.
sagefr0g
Well-Known Member
sorry Kasi. off hand i don't know how the cvbj avg bet is obtained. and on the original contest with jack-theghostrider-jackson i figured my avg bet directly from my cvbj logs not from cvbj statistics tables. but i'm not really sure how the cvbj logs handle splits either.Kasi said:
but i do suspect i've had a lot of +tc's so far giving me a higher avg bet. and by the way where i'm at now in my play my avg bet from the stats table has dropped to about $122 .
i'll try and figure that all out tomorrow. check my logs and cvbj help ect.
gotta get some :sleep: now though. the wife has me on early morning revalee tomorrow. lol
but below is a snippet from my logs showing some splits, ect. maybe that's a clue?
Attachments
jack.jackson
Well-Known Member
Yes, Im positive they are.Kasi said:
All splits are counted as hands. Four splits=4 hands
I kind of thought maybe they were. I wish I knew what if anything it meant lmao.jack said:
Maybe QFIT, if he sees this, could let us know what is included in his CVCX avg bet unit line and how that might compare to using CVBJ. Maybe it's possible CVBJ includes splits as hands but CVCX deals only with avg initial bet defined as as bet vs a dealer upcard. EV tables are always based on initial bet. Perhaps more of a technical question than a practical one.
I guess I've assumed CVCX does not include doubled wagers or split hand wagers and was only an avg initial bet. Maybe it's actually total $'s wagered/divided by number of hands played including split hands as hands.
I guess I thought Psim's avg bet was only based on initial bet vs 1 dealer upcard. Or so it seemed to me.
Just one more thing to explore in understanding what the heck a sim's results is telling one in the first place.
You're doing enough work - don't even think about itaslan said:Oops!
A separate question but you mean you actually COULD figure that out? I thought you were doing things really manually lol.
Either way - don't worry about it because tomorrow you might just have to change it back lol.
For heaven's sake - no need to apologizesagefr0g said:
But I was thinking of how "right-on" your avg bet was with JJ but then you and Canceller screwed things up wiyth a higher avg bet that made me wonder what was included in the definition of avg bet
And it ceratinly seems, as with JJ contest, your betting the right way at the right TC's.
No big deal - I used to wonder on the internet why my total dollars wagered along with my neg EV never seemed to jive. Then one day, if I adopted an "element of risk" point of view, it actually made much better sense.
In BJ, there's not a whole lot of difference between the 2 methinks. So it's just making a mountain of a mole hill. Or was in the million or so I wagered.
Maybe here, wagering potentially many many more millions, it might be something to understand anyway.
Yeah, me too, good nite lol.
aslan
Well-Known Member
My little spreadsheet tracks every DD and every split, even DD on a split.Kasi said:You're doing enough work - don't even think about it
A separate question but you mean you actually COULD figure that out? I thought you were doing things really manually lol.
Either way - don't worry about it because tomorrow you might just have to change it back lol.
sagefr0g
Well-Known Member
yup the 'ghostly one' is right about how cvbj calculates the average bet and deals with split hands. i could see that after inspecting my logs.Kasi said:
and here's a section from CVCX help:
Results Tables
The upper table contains overall results in two rows. The first provides results for the calculated Optimal Bets and the second provides results for the Custom Bets set by you. The lower table provides statistics by True Count.
Ø Bet Average - Average initial bet in units. This is the bet before double downs, splits, surrender or insurance.
Ø Win/Loss - Also called EV or IBA (Initial Bet Advantage.) This is the amount won or lost divided by the initial bet.
Ø Standard Deviation - Provided by hand and hour and used for desirability and risk calculations.
Ø Win Rates - Units and dollars won per hour.
Ø Risk of Ruin - The chance that you will lose the bankroll that you have set at the top of the page.
Ø DI - The desirability index developed by Don Schlesinger is a combination of win rate and standard deviation and is designed to rate the desirability of a situation. A higher DI is better.
Ø C-SCORE - c-SCORE is a term coined by Richard Reid to indicate comparative SCORE and is calculated without the bankroll and risk requirements of Don Schlesinger’s SCORE. It can be used to compare two situations and is calculated by squaring the Desirability Index.
Ø Certainty Equivalent - If you do not see this field, go to the Options tab and click on Customize Columns. CE is essentially the value of a wager.
Ø CE/WR Ratio - This is the ratio of Certainty Equivalent and Win Rate. Ideally this is 0.5. If this is less than .5, then your risk of ruin is greater than you wish.
Ø N0 - N0 is defined on the section on the Advanced Tab.
Ø True Count Frequency - The percentage of hands at each True Count.
Ø EV - The expected percentage won at each true count and the standard error. Also known as IBA.
Ø Optimal Bet Exact - Here the ideal number of units to bet is calculated to maximize the desirability index.
Ø Optimal Bet Chips - Set your Unit Size and Bet exactness at the top of the screen. Bet Exactness is the minimum increment in bet size. The bets that you should make at each TC are calculated here.
so yep your correct on how average bets in CVCX are obtained.
so i guess that means that the average bet shown in CV Statistics Summary table for CVBJ is in essence a 'differant animal' than the CVCX variety.
so not sure what to conclude about all this.
QFIT
Well-Known Member
CVCX average bet is based on initial bets. CVBJ counts split hands as separate. CVCX is used for statistical analysis and stats are based on rounds as this is the correct method for calculations. CVBJ is a practice tool and based more on hands. CVBJ is not really designed for any sort of statistical analysis since you would have to play for years to amass enough data to be meaningful.
One shoe warrior
Went through another shoe with my program. This time I just recorded the shoe comp before each deal so any count can be used. I made a spreadsheet of the shoe including pre-deal overall basic strategy EVs. This detail as well as manually having to record data makes recording data slower so I am only considering one shoe at a time. If I incoporated automatic playing and logging into my program I could generate more data and it also would be much easier. I don't have time to do that right now. The average bet is the average of the bet for that round so splits do not count as an extra hand. I used the composition to compute bet spreads and results using Hi-Lo but the spreadsheet could be expanded to include any number of addtional counts. Basic strategy is always used since to compare counts using the same set of compositions requires the same strategy be used.
Results:
Flat bettor: -3.5 units
Hi-Lo
TC <1 1 unit
TC +1 to <+3 6 units
TC +3 to <+4 13 units
TC +4 to <+5 20 units
TC >=+5 24 units
Using above spread: +25 units
Multiply by 25 to convert to $25 units.
Went through another shoe with my program. This time I just recorded the shoe comp before each deal so any count can be used. I made a spreadsheet of the shoe including pre-deal overall basic strategy EVs. This detail as well as manually having to record data makes recording data slower so I am only considering one shoe at a time. If I incoporated automatic playing and logging into my program I could generate more data and it also would be much easier. I don't have time to do that right now. The average bet is the average of the bet for that round so splits do not count as an extra hand. I used the composition to compute bet spreads and results using Hi-Lo but the spreadsheet could be expanded to include any number of addtional counts. Basic strategy is always used since to compare counts using the same set of compositions requires the same strategy be used.
Results:
Flat bettor: -3.5 units
Hi-Lo
TC <1 1 unit
TC +1 to <+3 6 units
TC +3 to <+4 13 units
TC +4 to <+5 20 units
TC >=+5 24 units
Using above spread: +25 units
Multiply by 25 to convert to $25 units.