sagefr0g said:
ok so in my case i could count up in my logs times that i've split and just subtract those from the cvbj total hands inorder to get a more technically correct number of initial hands...
the double down aspect of this issue is differant than the split issue. here we are introducing a larger than initial bet. so are you thinking that aspect is significant as well? i believe i see double downs doesn't introduce more hands but i guess from the aspect of determining or comparing your initial average bet it would make you believe it was higher than it really was. and the bets made on the split hands would do that as well.
so we need to take our percieved average bet with a grain of salt as well lol.
realize that it's gonna be circa 10% more or less higher than the sim's initial average bet. so but i guess we know that will naturally fluctuate anyway but we ought to find our average bet to be in the same ball park as the sim's initial average bet.
Well, for splits, say, if your first 2 hands got split 4 times CVBJ would report 8 hands played I assume? The sim assumed you played 2 rounds or versus 2 dealer upcards. So just knowing number of split hands wouldn't necessarily be all you'd need to know.
For doubles, I guess you should just keep in mind that your perceived avg bet, if based on total dollars wagered, will always be overstated compared to the sim.
It's kind of like alot of players, even BS players, knowing the HA is 0.5%, will say I wagered a total of $100,000 so my EV is -$500. If doubles were 10% in that game, then their EV is actually closer to -$450.
The sim win% is not intended to be applied against total dollars wagered to determine EV. The sim already has figured out all the doubling and splitting stuff and expressed everything in terms of avg initial bet. And, to the sim, a "hand" played actually means you played against 1 dealer up card even if you split 4 times and doubled each of those hands even though CVBJ would tell you you've wagered 8 units and played 4 hands.
So, if Canceller's "avg bet", if defined as total $'s wagered/by num of hands played, is running 10% or so higher than the sim predicted "avg bet", chances are he's "right-on" betting-wise lol.
Now how anybody keeps track of the number of initial dealer upcards they have played against is up to them. The more they actually they know that, the closer the sim will reflect EV.
But, like in real life, reasonable guesses are acceptable. That's all one can do if playing without the benefit of knowing exactly dollars wagered etc.
So 10,000 hands later, if that's what CVBJ tells you, plug in 9800 or 9900 hands and see what diff it makes lol.
Obviously splits and doubles are rule-dependent. D9 or NDAS etc.
So I guess the best thing about all this minutiae? has been it's useful to realize what a sim is telling you and what it's assumptions are and even what a "hand" might mean lol.
You're just burdened by all the info CVBJ gives you and what it means lol.
Which is why I'm just gonna use the BJ Trainer here next week when I get back and only know how many dealer upcards I played against and won't have a clue of totall dollars wagered or how many splits I had etc. I'll just know I'm really really unlucky aka I probably stink but I'd rather blame it on just my bad luck
