"Worst cards imaginable"

[Brock Windsor]

I always try to remember that you can dig yourself out of a hole just as fast as you got into the hole, just by sticking with the game plan.

Agreed. Had a dealer flashing the other night, it was one of those where if I had played BS with no hole card knowledge, the table would have won 'em all. Instead Im playing his hole card using proper strategy and the table was getting creamed..and insulting me of course until they had left. I dug into my wallet for the last of my session BR, split 7's against a 10up (and four under) to get a couple stiff doubling hands and the dealer busts. Win a couple more soft doubles and before the dealer was tapped off for break I had crawled from way down back to + 1/2 a unit. Stay the course, the math doesn't lie.
BW

 

[EasyRhino]

Unlike a ploppy we sit down at the table with great expectations and our world can be turned upside down when it's not as easy as it is on our simulators.

The biggest mistake a civilian makes is walking into the casino in the first place. All of the mistakes that we can make happen after we step foot inside.

I always try to remember that you can dig yourself out of a hole just as fast as you got into the hole, just by sticking with the game plan.

That's the rough part. While wild positive and negative streaks are inevitable, all you can really expect is your expected value. So, a sober evaluation of how long it will take to dig out after a big loss can be... sobering.

 

[Automatic Monkey]

...
That's the rough part. While wild positive and negative streaks are inevitable, all you can really expect is your expected value. So, a sober evaluation of how long it will take to dig out after a big loss can be... sobering.

It's a paradox. When we're playing a 4 unit per hour game, and we lose 20 units on a hand, we don't see one hand, we see 5 hours. But when we win a 20 unit hand we don't think we can take the next 5 hours off. So I try to see it only as that in 5 hours, that hand won't matter any more. If that makes any sense.

 

[ihate17]

Can you see the differences here

I can.
We have some battle tested vets of the casino wars who know that the answer is to stay the course and all will eventually turn around, and they do stay the course.

We have some, perhaps newer AP's, who also know that answer is to stay the course but either know or fear they might compound negative variance by steaming. They know what they should do and anything we tell them will not help them if they go out of control.

So either they find a way within themselves to play like a machine (but look like an uncontrolable gambler to the casino), or they very well could fall into the category of being a losing counter, and they will have plenty of company.
For this type of player, sometimes taking a break may clear things up some and they may come back stronger.

Facing those ineviatable periods of huge negative variance is a true test of just how much of an AP you really are. For those who have never faced it, either you just have not played long enough or you are full of it.

ihate17

 

[Bojack1]

Actually what I see is those that are prepared and those that aren't. I hear so many that say they need to log casino time to learn how to handle the pressure of the game. I offer this, there is no pressure in this game. If you feel it you either do not trust the math of card counting, which would be ignorant. You don't trust that you are applying it correctly to your game, which is negligent. Or you are betting money you cannot afford to lose which is irresponsible. Other than that if you truly have mastered your craft, then emotions are just not a factor in playing. The real problem I see with most is they are ill prepared for casino play and it shows when the so called pressure rises. The reason I have always stressed to strive for perfection is, when you have supreme confidence that you are right, then you will fully understand the situation when you lose. No second guessing or thinking why me. You know why and you also know that if kept at it the chances of winning will be greater for you. Its a simple concept, but its one that very few follow. If casino play is harder or faster then your training, then you are doing it backwards and you will probably be dealing with or even creating pressure for yourself. I feel most novice counters and even some experienced ones, try to hone their craft in the casino. Thats quite an expensive way to practice and one I would not suggest. Sure there will be things in a casino atmosphere that you will need to get comfortable with, but it should not affect the mechanics of your game. There are certain things such as scouting games and looking for certain opportunities that can really only be perfected in a casino, but that is hardly a pressure situation and not at all what I am talking about. The way you apply your method should be ingrained before you drop even one chip on the felt. If it is I assure you win or lose it will not change your game, it will be just another day at the office. Of course there are those that feed off the adrenaline of chance, but those that do would be gamblers, not AP's. If you want to find a rush I say its best to find that other ways outside the casino.

 

[zengrifter]

Actually what I see is those that are prepared and those that aren't. I hear so many that say they need to log casino time to learn how to handle the pressure of the game. I offer this, there is no pressure in this game. If you feel it you either do not trust the math of card counting, which would be ignorant. You don't trust that you are applying it correctly to your game, which is negligent. Or you are betting money you cannot afford to lose which is irresponsible. Other than that if you truly have mastered your craft, then emotions are just not a factor in playing. The real problem I see with most is they are ill prepared for casino play and it shows when the so called pressure rises. The reason I have always stressed to strive for perfection is, when you have supreme confidence that you are right, then you will fully understand the situation when you lose. No second guessing or thinking why me. You know why and you also know that if kept at it the chances of winning will be greater for you. Its a simple concept, but its one that very few follow. If casino play is harder or faster then your training, then you are doing it backwards and you will probably be dealing with or even creating pressure for yourself. I feel most novice counters and even some experienced ones, try to hone their craft in the casino. Thats quite an expensive way to practice and one I would not suggest. Sure there will be things in a casino atmosphere that you will need to get comfortable with, but it should not affect the mechanics of your game. There are certain things such as scouting games and looking for certain opportunities that can really only be perfected in a casino, but that is hardly a pressure situation and not at all what I am talking about. The way you apply your method should be ingrained before you drop even one chip on the felt. If it is I assure you win or lose it will not change your game, it will be just another day at the office. Of course there are those that feed off the adrenaline of chance, but those that do would be gamblers, not AP's. If you want to find a rush I say its best to find that other ways outside the casino.

Kudos! zg

 

[Preston]

Getting back to it..

I am usually very disciplined about the grind. It's just I played too long and that drove it into the ground. I analyzed my play since my losing session and I see where I started to lose control.

A lot of it was playing tired and not wanting to get up to wong out. That caused a lot of the problem. I know I am ready to get back into the grind. But I still want to give myself another day or two just to make sure I am 100%.

I have had issues with a gambling problem in the past and a lot of those symptoms resurfaced the other night. Things weren't right in my head. At least I was able to walk away before going completely broke... I could have really committed bankroll suicide.

 

[Automatic Monkey]

I am usually very disciplined about the grind. It's just I played too long and that drove it into the ground. I analyzed my play since my losing session and I see where I started to lose control.

A lot of it was playing tired and not wanting to get up to wong out. That caused a lot of the problem. I know I am ready to get back into the grind. But I still want to give myself another day or two just to make sure I am 100%.

I have had issues with a gambling problem in the past and a lot of those symptoms resurfaced the other night. Things weren't right in my head. At least I was able to walk away before going completely broke... I could have really committed bankroll suicide.

Whoa wait, AP doesn't work when you have a gambling problem. If you enjoy gambling and taking your chances (and frankly, I hate that part of it) you're fraternizing with your bankroll's enemy, which is variance.

Do not believe that there is no pressure. You can do everything right on a full-Kelly bankroll and there is still a 13% chance of bankruptcy, about the same as a woman getting breast cancer, which is inarguably something to fear. Nobody wants to lose a breast or a bankroll. You have to opt out of life to avoid cancer but you can opt out of losing your bankroll by simply not playing anymore, if you find that 13% fear makes your life miserable.

 

[ihate17]

perhaps a big additional problem

I am usually very disciplined about the grind. It's just I played too long and that drove it into the ground. I analyzed my play since my losing session and I see where I started to lose control.

A lot of it was playing tired and not wanting to get up to wong out. That caused a lot of the problem. I know I am ready to get back into the grind. But I still want to give myself another day or two just to make sure I am 100%.

I have had issues with a gambling problem in the past and a lot of those symptoms resurfaced the other night. Things weren't right in my head. At least I was able to walk away before going completely broke... I could have really committed bankroll suicide.

Learning to play blackjack at an advantage but having a gambling problem might not be a good marriage. I have no expertize in the subject but wonder if the atmosphere of a casino, the possibily of big negative variance and your saying that symptoms do resurface under certain conditions is a sign that your gambling problems are still there.

This goes beyond the scope of this board except for the possibility that others may be insightful and share some of their problems with you. Overall, I feel that a person who might have been addicted to drugs and cleans themself up, should never again try drugs because they may have an addictive type personality and easily can be hooked again. The same goes for an addictive anything, including gambler. You might say that cardcounting is not gambling since you have an edge, but to me it is still gambling but with an advantage, but that advantage is really small and the variance is really large and negative variance might trigger a problem.

ihate17

 

[Brock Windsor]

there is no pressure in this game. If you feel it you either do not trust the math of card counting, which would be ignorant. You don't trust that you are applying it correctly to your game, which is negligent. Or you are betting money you cannot afford to lose which is irresponsible. Other than that if you truly have mastered your craft, then emotions are just not a factor in playing.

I feel the pressure, but it is likely my risk tolerance. I could never bet using full Kelly, (13% RoR AM?) Even when my RoR is below 5% when I hit a long negative swing I start to think - could I be that one in 20 that busts out? This risk aversion however is what pushed me away from counting and got me searching for better advantages so in the long run it will probably help.

Learning to play blackjack at an advantage but having a gambling problem might not be a good marriage.

Agreed. Snyder touches on this in Blackbelt saying it is like teaching an alcoholic to become a wine taster. An addict gets their thrill from their money being in action, not from wonging out and grinding nickels. If you are compelled to make a bad bet, you shouldn't play.
BW

 

[Bojack1]

Whoa wait, AP doesn't work when you have a gambling problem. If you enjoy gambling and taking your chances (and frankly, I hate that part of it) you're fraternizing with your bankroll's enemy, which is variance.

Do not believe that there is no pressure. You can do everything right on a full-Kelly bankroll and there is still a 13% chance of bankruptcy, about the same as a woman getting breast cancer, which is inarguably something to fear. Nobody wants to lose a breast or a bankroll. You have to opt out of life to avoid cancer but you can opt out of losing your bankroll by simply not playing anymore, if you find that 13% fear makes your life miserable.

I find this post ridiculous. You cannot compare breast cancer with losing money, especially money put away for a blackjack bankroll thats not used for paying your life expenses. Being sick with a chance of dying is pressure, that is a fact nobody could dispute. Being totally in the know about what can happen when you count cards should be no pressure at all. If you find it taxing on your emotions, don't play. Or better yet get better at it so you can fully understand the ramifications of all your actions. What causes anxiety and pressure the most is the fear of the unknown. There is no reason for that with card counting. If you study and train well you will know and understand the good and the bad of it. Hey we are not robots, and I along with most of you do not want to lose a penny to the casino. But I know it will happen, I also know I will win. Thats not pressure thats reality, and if you are playing without the sense of reality then you will inevitably feel the pressure. Just play a strong game and I assure you confidence will overwhelm the insecurities that breed pressure. Its not easy to get to the point of pressure free playing, but then again if it was easy, even a monkey could do it.

 

[EasyRhino]

As long as we're on disease analogies, I think going in and betting very aggressively relative to bankroll might be better compared to lung cancer.

Commonality: In both cases, you know going in that there is a chance that Very Bad Things will happen, but you do not know if it will happen to you, or to some other schmuck.

Difference: We're talking about bankroll loss, not death.

Both fates are both mitagatable (smoking less, betting less), and preventable (smoking none, betting none).

 

[rdorange]

Returning to the worst cards.....

As the thread started out...Worst Cards Imaginable....
If you are counting and the count runs up, and you get a stiff and the dealer gets 20 or 21, you knew this was due. The 20 or 21 could just as easily have been yours as his! The fact that you knew the cards were due and raised your bet proved this. Counting informs you of the advantage in the remaining cards. COUNTING DOES NOT GUARANTEE THAT YOU AS THE COUNTER WILL ALWAYS RECEIVE THE ADVANTAGOUS CARDS!

I've had terrible trips due to this. To add insult to injury...when this happens to most players, they say to themselves, "This couldn't happen again", (like after ten times) and then when the count goes up again, they over bet and try to make up for the previous losses. Believe me, it can happen as many times as you have money that says it won't!
After you stop playing and leave, it will surely end. You can then clear your mind, reset your luck, and return to try another day!
But remember...
COUNTING DOES NOT GUARANTEE THAT YOU AS THE COUNTER WILL ALWAYS RECEIVE THE ADVANTAGOUS CARDS!

 

[AnIrishmannot2brite]

As the thread started out...Worst Cards Imaginable....
If you are counting and the count runs up, and you get a stiff and the dealer gets 20 or 21, you knew this was due. The 20 or 21 could just as easily have been yours as his! The fact that you knew the cards were due and raised your bet proved this. Counting informs you of the advantage in the remaining cards. COUNTING DOES NOT GUARANTEE THAT YOU AS THE COUNTER WILL ALWAYS RECEIVE THE ADVANTAGOUS CARDS!

I've had terrible trips due to this. To add insult to injury...when this happens to most players, they say to themselves, "This couldn't happen again", (like after ten times) and then when the count goes up again, they over bet and try to make up for the previous losses. Believe me, it can happen as many times as you have money that says it won't!
After you stop playing and leave, it will surely end. You can then clear your mind, reset your luck, and return to try another day!
But remember...
COUNTING DOES NOT GUARANTEE THAT YOU AS THE COUNTER WILL ALWAYS RECEIVE THE ADVANTAGOUS CARDS!

Ain't that the truth.

Note my most recent excursion to the same casino in post: "Back to the lions den:"

Today i got most all the good cards in the high count. What few stiffs there were stayed on (my favorite play) while dealer went bust. Dealer notices: "Nice stay!"

 

[aslan]

As the thread started out...Worst Cards Imaginable....
If you are counting and the count runs up, and you get a stiff and the dealer gets 20 or 21, you knew this was due. The 20 or 21 could just as easily have been yours as his! The fact that you knew the cards were due and raised your bet proved this. Counting informs you of the advantage in the remaining cards. COUNTING DOES NOT GUARANTEE THAT YOU AS THE COUNTER WILL ALWAYS RECEIVE THE ADVANTAGOUS CARDS!

I've had terrible trips due to this. To add insult to injury...when this happens to most players, they say to themselves, "This couldn't happen again", (like after ten times) and then when the count goes up again, they over bet and try to make up for the previous losses. Believe me, it can happen as many times as you have money that says it won't!
After you stop playing and leave, it will surely end. You can then clear your mind, reset your luck, and return to try another day!
But remember...
COUNTING DOES NOT GUARANTEE THAT YOU AS THE COUNTER WILL ALWAYS RECEIVE THE ADVANTAGOUS CARDS!

It should not be bolded, it should be burned into the brain of every would be counter. I can't tell you how many times I have sat and watched as either the dealer or the players on either side of me continued to get all the advantageous cards, blackjacks and twenties, while I reaped nothing but 6's, 5's and 4's paired to the inevitable ten or face card. That is exactly why there is so much variance in counting. The cards FAVOR but do not GUARANTEE WINS for the counter. But I'm not saying anything new--all counters have experienced this. On average we do okay.

 

[rdorange]

New Signature Quote

I think that just became my new sig!

 

[Automatic Monkey]

I feel the pressure, but it is likely my risk tolerance. I could never bet using full Kelly, (13% RoR AM?) Even when my RoR is below 5% when I hit a long negative swing I start to think - could I be that one in 20 that busts out? This risk aversion however is what pushed me away from counting and got me searching for better advantages so in the long run it will probably help.

13% for full Kelly, you better believe it. You can reduce this by using smaller Kelly fractions, but get small enough, and you'd make more money putting your bankroll into some nice investment grade income securities and getting a part-time job at the supermarket. Thus you are right on about looking for better advantages whenever you can. Kelly math still applies of course, but the higher advantage allows you to make a larger income with similar risk.

Agreed. Snyder touches on this in Blackbelt saying it is like teaching an alcoholic to become a wine taster. An addict gets their thrill from their money being in action, not from wonging out and grinding nickels. If you are compelled to make a bad bet, you shouldn't play.
BW

Absolutely. As an AP I do everything I can to keep money out of action with Wonging, surrender indices and such. If you get wood seeing your money out there and waiting for the cards to fall, you're in trouble.

 

[Automatic Monkey]

I find this post ridiculous. You cannot compare breast cancer with losing money, especially money put away for a blackjack bankroll thats not used for paying your life expenses. Being sick with a chance of dying is pressure, that is a fact nobody could dispute. Being totally in the know about what can happen when you count cards should be no pressure at all. If you find it taxing on your emotions, don't play. Or better yet get better at it so you can fully understand the ramifications of all your actions. What causes anxiety and pressure the most is the fear of the unknown. There is no reason for that with card counting. If you study and train well you will know and understand the good and the bad of it. Hey we are not robots, and I along with most of you do not want to lose a penny to the casino. But I know it will happen, I also know I will win. Thats not pressure thats reality, and if you are playing without the sense of reality then you will inevitably feel the pressure. Just play a strong game and I assure you confidence will overwhelm the insecurities that breed pressure. Its not easy to get to the point of pressure free playing, but then again if it was easy, even a monkey could do it.

Can you afford to lose your bankroll? I can't. I wouldn't die, but it would mean a few years of crappy vacations and junk cars. (Plus you know my other habits- between sessions I can be found in my hotel room with a needle in my arm and a whore on her knees, I'd have to give all that up too.:joker: ) My part-time BJ career affords me luxuries that I would not enjoy parting with, but an 87% chance of having them is worth the 13% chance of not having them.

In reference to the disease analogy, if I had to choose between getting cancer and losing my bankroll, I think I'd choose the bad gaming variance. But my point is none of us get to choose whether we get either of these. Lots of people who do everything right healthwise will get cancer and AP's who do everything right will go bankrupt, and there's nothing we can do about it, other than drop out of the game. It's random, and it's fearsome.

 

[EasyRhino]

Ooh wait, if you spend too much time in a smoky casino, you might get lung cancer anyway... crap.

COUNTING DOES NOT GUARANTEE THAT YOU AS THE COUNTER WILL ALWAYS RECEIVE THE ADVANTAGOUS CARDS!

Excellent. But you know what really cheesed me off in my heads-up session from hell? A few times I absently noticed that the count had spiked, but was tanking, even though I kept getting stiff after stiff hand. The reason? The f-ing dealer kept getting all the 20s and 21s! Enough to crater the count!

So much anger.

 

[Preston]

Learning to play blackjack at an advantage but having a gambling problem might not be a good marriage. I have no expertize in the subject but wonder if the atmosphere of a casino, the possibily of big negative variance and your saying that symptoms do resurface under certain conditions is a sign that your gambling problems are still there.

This goes beyond the scope of this board except for the possibility that others may be insightful and share some of their problems with you. Overall, I feel that a person who might have been addicted to drugs and cleans themself up, should never again try drugs because they may have an addictive type personality and easily can be hooked again. The same goes for an addictive anything, including gambler. You might say that cardcounting is not gambling since you have an edge, but to me it is still gambling but with an advantage, but that advantage is really small and the variance is really large and negative variance might trigger a problem.

ihate17

Thing is I know where my problem lies and came from. The problem gambling I had in the past was caused by needing to make major changes in my personal life. I got my stuff together, got out of debt, built my bankroll, and practiced a lot before getting back into the grind. I do keep a card for gamblers anonymous in my wallet -- which is what got me to get up and leave the other night during my huge negative variance. My bills are paid, my credit is good.

I still love action -- but I don't get that from blackjack. Blackjack isn't fun to me and I don't really feel it. I know AP play is still gambling and that is why I keep it aall in perspective.

I still like action...but since my life is in order I am able to keep myself in control. I have a chunk of my bankroll which is put aside for non-AP play. Video Poker, Slots.. but mostly craps.