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Hi, I’m somewhat confused about the „european“ strategy (6 decks, S17, D9, DAS, NoSurr, NoPeek(!), no refund(!!) of split or double on dealers BJ) calculated by your engine. Although I understand that 11 vs. ten might run into a dealers BlackJack, it is still 15 ten’s for me to get 21 and only 4 aces for the dealer to reach a BJ (counted per deck). So why not DD on 11 vs. ten?
Next point is not splitting 8s against ten or ace. I can easily follow not to split 8s against A due to „a lot of ten’s around there“. But again, why not splitting that ugly 16 points against a dealers ten, who needs a „seldom“ ace to knock me out? Even more confusing: if 8s should not be splitted against ten, why should aces be splitted against ten?
The short answer is: That’s just the way the numbers work out. Just trust the strategy.
But I’m sure that is not a very satisfying answer for you. So, I’ll try to give you some more insight. What about doubling 11vT? You can’t just look at the likelihood of you drawing a ten versus the dealer drawing an Ace. Most of the time neither of those things will happen. The tricky part is comparing all the other possible outcomes. You’ll make money when you double 11vT, but it won’t be as much as you will make on average by just hitting. For one thing, when you double you give up the ability to draw more than one card. If you draw an Ace,2,3,4, or 5, you would like to be able to hit again, but you are not allowed to. All of those factors go into the calculations, and in a no hole card game you should not double 11vT. (In fact, in the S17 game you describe, you shouldn’t double 11vT even if the dealer did take a hole card!) The other decisions have similarly complicated explanations. There are rarely easy answers for the “why” of basic strategy. The calculations take all the possible outcomes into account, and show you the most profitable (or more frequently, the least unprofitable!) way to play each decision.
Sure… With Hard 17vs Ace, surrender if you can. If you cannot surrender, the “stand” index is -5, meaning stand if the true count is -5 or better. Only when the true count is worse than -5 should you hit. With 88vAce, surrender if you can. If you cannot surrender, the “split” index is -2. Split if the true count is -2 or better. If the true count is -3 or worse, you should hit instead of stand.
Ken, years ago I counted using HiLo. I would like to start counting again recreationally when I go to Vegas or a day trip to AC. I am trying KO because there is no need to estimate the number of decks in the discard tray. But I find the the increased negative counts hard to deal with and it is easier to know when I have an advantage using HiLo and the betting table is easier to remember. What would you advise for a recreational player, put up with deck estimation or get over negative numbers and unintuitive betting strategies? How accurate do I need to be at deck estimation?
KO really does perform favorably compared to Hi-Lo, so I think it is a very reasonable choice. Most people who choose KO end up adjusting the starting count and the key numbers up by enough to eliminate most of the negative running counts. That is a good plan. Even so, I always personally preferred balanced counts despite the need to convert to a true count. With KO, you really can’t reliably know how big your edge is, just whether you have an edge or not. That bothered me, although the sims confirm it’s not a big deal. While deck estimation accuracy does matter, you will be fine if your accuracy is pretty reliable to one deck.
If mgm goes to $10.00 parking, and the price of gas stays where it’s at (below $3.00) and they keep pushing this 6/5 business, and union pressure in a RTW state, these high priced execs better start checking how far away the competion is.lol Not to mention a 20% rake and increase in food and room rates. Should help out the taxi business, but the indians and out of staters might get tired of that long drive for a 20$ hamburger at micky dees.
First MLife stopped table game express comp earning, and now they plan to charge for parking. Vegas is becoming a far different place. Once Vegas casinos’ non-gaming revenue eclipsed gaming revenue, we could have seen this trend coming.
Basic strategy is to stand with 13v2. But as the index numbers above indicate, you should hit this hand if the true count is -2 or worse. Stand at -1 or better, which matches basic strategy.
Hello, I want to ask about the true count, after a round has been done, for example we have a +6 running count and 3 decks haven’t been played, the true count is +2 . But when we start a new round, where shoulld I start counting? From 0 again or continue the +6 running count that I have before? Thank you very much
I agree with Shack on his final verdict… The third baseman myth won’t ever be dispelled, facts be damned. Some people just need a scapegoat for their losses.
It’s just a close call, and the optimal basic strategy happens to change between S17 and H17. Yet the index numbers round to the same value. Just another of the subtleties that emerge from the game.
Michael Shackleford, A.S.A., a professional actuary who has made a career of analyzing casino games, sees your statement as myth. He runs the numbers on new games for casinos and game developers and has helped design many of the popular slot machines on the Internet.
In his own words…….
“Unless you are a card counter, how other players play should not affect what you do. Basic strategy players should stick to the basic strategy no matter how badly the other players play. Other players are just as likely to help you as hurt you. In the end, it makes no difference how they play.”
“In ten years of running this site I steadfastly denied the myth that bad players cause other players to lose in blackjack. However, you are the lucky 1000th person to ask, so I took the trouble to prove it by random simulation. The rules I put in are the standard liberal Vegas Strip rules as follows.
6 decks Dealer stands on soft 17 Double on any first two cards allowed Double after split allowed Late surrender allowed Player may re-split to four hands, including aces Cut card used
First, I had both players follow correct total-dependent basic strategy. Over almost 1.6 billion rounds, the loss of the first player to act was 0.289%, and the second player to act of 0.288%.
Second, I had the first player follow the same correct strategy, and the second player follow the same correct strategy except:
Always hit 12 to 16 Always double 9 to 11 Split any pair Never surrender Never soft double
In a simulation of 1.05 billion hands the loss of the first player was 0.282%, and the second player was 11.260%. So the house edge of the basic strategy playing first player was almost the same, regardless of whether the second player played correctly or wildly incorrectly. I hope this puts and end the third baseman myth, but I doubt it. As I have said many times, the more ridiculous a belief is, the more tenaciously it tends to be held.”
ok thanks, I’ve gone back to Professional Blackjack and found the wider index ranges for H17 & S17 shoe games.
One last question (at least for now!) on Double Deck. On your Adv Charts the index value for A,3 vs 4 = 1 for both H17 & S17. However the basic strategy action is Hit (S17) and Dbl (H17). I know this scenario is a close one but what’s the reason for the differences in basic strategy between H17 & S17 despite the same index.
During the iterative process of generating the indexes, I truncated the list to only -5 to +5 at each step of the process, so I do not have the outlying indexes. Wong’s Professional Blackjack has a wider range for shoe games in H17 and S17 if I recall correctly.
Hi, I’m somewhat confused about the „european“ strategy (6 decks, S17, D9, DAS, NoSurr, NoPeek(!), no refund(!!) of split or double on dealers BJ) calculated by your engine. Although I understand that 11 vs. ten might run into a dealers BlackJack, it is still 15 ten’s for me to get 21 and only 4 aces for the dealer to reach a BJ (counted per deck). So why not DD on 11 vs. ten?
Next point is not splitting 8s against ten or ace. I can easily follow not to split 8s against A due to „a lot of ten’s around there“. But again, why not splitting that ugly 16 points against a dealers ten, who needs a „seldom“ ace to knock me out? Even more confusing: if 8s should not be splitted against ten, why should aces be splitted against ten?
Thanks for your support and…great website!
The short answer is: That’s just the way the numbers work out. Just trust the strategy.
But I’m sure that is not a very satisfying answer for you. So, I’ll try to give you some more insight. What about doubling 11vT? You can’t just look at the likelihood of you drawing a ten versus the dealer drawing an Ace. Most of the time neither of those things will happen. The tricky part is comparing all the other possible outcomes. You’ll make money when you double 11vT, but it won’t be as much as you will make on average by just hitting. For one thing, when you double you give up the ability to draw more than one card. If you draw an Ace,2,3,4, or 5, you would like to be able to hit again, but you are not allowed to. All of those factors go into the calculations, and in a no hole card game you should not double 11vT. (In fact, in the S17 game you describe, you shouldn’t double 11vT even if the dealer did take a hole card!)
The other decisions have similarly complicated explanations. There are rarely easy answers for the “why” of basic strategy. The calculations take all the possible outcomes into account, and show you the most profitable (or more frequently, the least unprofitable!) way to play each decision.
Can you please clarify the index play on 6D H17 DAS: Hard 17 vs A where it says RS-5; and 8,8 vs A where it says RP-2.
Sure…
With Hard 17vs Ace, surrender if you can. If you cannot surrender, the “stand” index is -5, meaning stand if the true count is -5 or better. Only when the true count is worse than -5 should you hit.
With 88vAce, surrender if you can. If you cannot surrender, the “split” index is -2. Split if the true count is -2 or better. If the true count is -3 or worse, you should hit instead of stand.
That makes a lot of sense now. Thank you for your quick response.
Ken, years ago I counted using HiLo. I would like to start counting again recreationally when I go to Vegas or a day trip to AC. I am trying KO because there is no need to estimate the number of decks in the discard tray. But I find the the increased negative counts hard to deal with and it is easier to know when I have an advantage using HiLo and the betting table is easier to remember. What would you advise for a recreational player, put up with deck estimation or get over negative numbers and unintuitive betting strategies? How accurate do I need to be at deck estimation?
KO really does perform favorably compared to Hi-Lo, so I think it is a very reasonable choice. Most people who choose KO end up adjusting the starting count and the key numbers up by enough to eliminate most of the negative running counts. That is a good plan.
Even so, I always personally preferred balanced counts despite the need to convert to a true count. With KO, you really can’t reliably know how big your edge is, just whether you have an edge or not. That bothered me, although the sims confirm it’s not a big deal. While deck estimation accuracy does matter, you will be fine if your accuracy is pretty reliable to one deck.
If mgm goes to $10.00 parking, and the price of gas stays where it’s at (below $3.00) and they keep pushing this 6/5 business, and union pressure in a RTW state, these high priced execs better start checking how far away the competion is.lol Not to mention a 20% rake and increase in food and room rates. Should help out the taxi business, but the indians and out of staters might get tired of that long drive for a 20$ hamburger at micky dees.
First MLife stopped table game express comp earning, and now they plan to charge for parking. Vegas is becoming a far different place. Once Vegas casinos’ non-gaming revenue eclipsed gaming revenue, we could have seen this trend coming.
Greatly appreciate your website. Many thanks. Hit en once more.
Hi,
Quick question, I thought you were always supposed to stand 13v2?
thanks
Basic strategy is to stand with 13v2. But as the index numbers above indicate, you should hit this hand if the true count is -2 or worse. Stand at -1 or better, which matches basic strategy.
Hello, I want to ask about the true count, after a round has been done, for example we have a +6 running count and 3 decks haven’t been played, the true count is +2 . But when we start a new round, where shoulld I start counting? From 0 again or continue the +6 running count that I have before? Thank you
very much
If the casino does not pay out 3 to 2 for blackjack after splitting Aces, do we still proceed to split ace pair?
I agree with Shack on his final verdict… The third baseman myth won’t ever be dispelled, facts be damned. Some people just need a scapegoat for their losses.
It’s just a close call, and the optimal basic strategy happens to change between S17 and H17. Yet the index numbers round to the same value. Just another of the subtleties that emerge from the game.
Michael Shackleford, A.S.A., a professional actuary who has made a career of analyzing casino games, sees your statement as myth. He runs the numbers on new games for casinos and game developers and has helped design many of the popular slot machines on the Internet.
In his own words…….
“Unless you are a card counter, how other players play should not affect what you do. Basic strategy players should stick to the basic strategy no matter how badly the other players play. Other players are just as likely to help you as hurt you. In the end, it makes no difference how they play.”
“In ten years of running this site I steadfastly denied the myth that bad players cause other players to lose in blackjack. However, you are the lucky 1000th person to ask, so I took the trouble to prove it by random simulation. The rules I put in are the standard liberal Vegas Strip rules as follows.
6 decks
Dealer stands on soft 17
Double on any first two cards allowed
Double after split allowed
Late surrender allowed
Player may re-split to four hands, including aces
Cut card used
First, I had both players follow correct total-dependent basic strategy. Over almost 1.6 billion rounds, the loss of the first player to act was 0.289%, and the second player to act of 0.288%.
Second, I had the first player follow the same correct strategy, and the second player follow the same correct strategy except:
Always hit 12 to 16
Always double 9 to 11
Split any pair
Never surrender
Never soft double
In a simulation of 1.05 billion hands the loss of the first player was 0.282%, and the second player was 11.260%. So the house edge of the basic strategy playing first player was almost the same, regardless of whether the second player played correctly or wildly incorrectly. I hope this puts and end the third baseman myth, but I doubt it. As I have said many times, the more ridiculous a belief is, the more tenaciously it tends to be held.”
ok thanks, I’ve gone back to Professional Blackjack and found the wider index ranges for H17 & S17 shoe games.
One last question (at least for now!) on Double Deck. On your Adv Charts the index value for A,3 vs 4 = 1 for both H17 & S17. However the basic strategy action is Hit (S17) and Dbl (H17). I know this scenario is a close one but what’s the reason for the differences in basic strategy between H17 & S17 despite the same index.
Thanks!
Just as much odds of bad play ending in a positive outcome (Take the 5, leave a bust card)
During the iterative process of generating the indexes, I truncated the list to only -5 to +5 at each step of the process, so I do not have the outlying indexes. Wong’s Professional Blackjack has a wider range for shoe games in H17 and S17 if I recall correctly.