'Dice Control' Denounced

[aslan]

As many times as I try it, I still get 0.0000%!!! It's as frustrating as playing tic tac toe against yourself...hell, I even put in 6 different kinds of favorite trees. What's a guy gotta do to get an advantage in craps?!? :flame: :grin: Because we all know that it's impossible, right?

Norm, maybe you should add some more questions, like:

Shoe size?
Golf handicap?
Frequency of sexual activity?
Number of consecutive free throws made?

I think that might help :grin:

What am I doing wrong? I keep getting negative numbers! Maybe it's due to a complete lack of sexual activity. Anyone else get similar results?

 

[callipygian]

I'm surprised at all the negativity here about dice control.

To start with, only minor adjustments are required to beat the small house edge to begin with. Let's say that it was possible to control one axis of the dice roll. You still have 4*4 possible rolls. Furthermore, let's say this technique is so hard that you can only do it right 3% of the time - you've already beaten the house edge.

Next, note that controlling one axis (which people usually write about) isn't even required. ANY throw, as long as it is consistent, can very easily turn you into a winner. If you can consistently throw the dice to bounce once, hit the mirror, and then take 2-3 turns in ANY direction, and do that 5-6% of the time, you're already a winner.

It really doesn't matter what the numbers you can hit are - the beauty of craps is that you can profit from dice control off any number (I suppose, unless the only number you can hit consistently is 12). If you can hit 3's more than expected, then you have an advantage with the Don't Pass bet. If you can hit 4's more than expected, then play Pass with full odds.

The ONE legitimate criticism that has come up repeatedly is essentially how you prove such an edge exists. You'll run out of muscle strength or life long before you have enough rolls to statistically demonstrate a small edge, and I think just about everyone agrees that a high edge is impossible.

So while I agree that it both hasn't been proven and that a high edge is impossible, I'd disagree that a small edge can't exist because it hasn't been proven yet.

 

[aslan]

I heard that in the old days (circa 1992) it was a lot easier to get an edge, because houses weren't insistent that the dice bounce off the pyramids. I heard that was the way that Archie Karas made his famous run at Binion's. What later happened, so I've been told by Vegas gamblers, is that Binion had his table felts padded with a very bouncy material so that even rolling the dice without hitting the backboard was a difficult task because the dice tended to bounce all over the place. Just a story; I can't verify the truth of it.

 

[Chapel]

The ONE legitimate criticism that has come up repeatedly is essentially how you prove such an edge exists. You'll run out of muscle strength or life long before you have enough rolls to statistically demonstrate a small edge, and I think just about everyone agrees that a high edge is impossible.

You could compare the results of a few thousand rolls and be within a 3% error of how often you can manipulate the dice effectively by comparing the results of those rolls with the expected result spread of those rolls.

I don't know if being able to do it 1 in 20 times (5%) is really good enough to get an edge over the house. Probably have to get to about 1 in 4 times (25%) if you were using a on-axis type of roll to get a noticeable advantage. The real disadvantage comes from the fact that you aren't always the one shooting.

 

[moo321]

I'm surprised at all the negativity here about dice control.

To start with, only minor adjustments are required to beat the small house edge to begin with. Let's say that it was possible to control one axis of the dice roll. You still have 4*4 possible rolls. Furthermore, let's say this technique is so hard that you can only do it right 3% of the time - you've already beaten the house edge.

Next, note that controlling one axis (which people usually write about) isn't even required. ANY throw, as long as it is consistent, can very easily turn you into a winner. If you can consistently throw the dice to bounce once, hit the mirror, and then take 2-3 turns in ANY direction, and do that 5-6% of the time, you're already a winner.

It really doesn't matter what the numbers you can hit are - the beauty of craps is that you can profit from dice control off any number (I suppose, unless the only number you can hit consistently is 12). If you can hit 3's more than expected, then you have an advantage with the Don't Pass bet. If you can hit 4's more than expected, then play Pass with full odds.

The ONE legitimate criticism that has come up repeatedly is essentially how you prove such an edge exists. You'll run out of muscle strength or life long before you have enough rolls to statistically demonstrate a small edge, and I think just about everyone agrees that a high edge is impossible.

So while I agree that it both hasn't been proven and that a high edge is impossible, I'd disagree that a small edge can't exist because it hasn't been proven yet.

The theory makes sense. But there's just no hard data to back it up, so we're rightly skeptical. I'm not saying it's impossible, I just think it's not worth the time if you can play double deck blackjack or poker.

 

[aslan]

The theory makes sense. But there's just no hard data to back it up, so we're rightly skeptical. I'm not saying it's impossible, I just think it's not worth the time if you can play double deck blackjack or poker.

I guess it's a matter of whatever floats your boat. It is nice to have several advantage plays to move around to. Currently, I only have two, and I've got a lot to learn at that both.

 

[QFIT]

The ONE legitimate criticism that has come up repeatedly is essentially how you prove such an edge exists. You'll run out of muscle strength or life long before you have enough rolls to statistically demonstrate a small edge, and I think just about everyone agrees that a high edge is impossible.

I strongly disagree. The criticism is that the people that push this crap have used gamblers fallacies to prove their case.

 

[callipygian]

I don't know if being able to do it 1 in 20 times (5%) is really good enough to get an edge over the house.

I wrote a simulator to do this a while back - being able to correctly roll dice on-axis only requires a 1-in-36 success rate to break even.

The theory makes sense. But there's just no hard data to back it up, so we're rightly skeptical. I'm not saying it's impossible, I just think it's not worth the time if you can play double deck blackjack or poker.

I agree. But people early in the thread suggested, if they didn't outright say, that it was impossible.

The criticism is that the people that push this crap have used gamblers fallacies to prove their case.

But so have system-pushers for blackjack card counting. While I agree that 90% of the people pushing card counting and 99%+ of the people pushing dice control are frauds, mathematically both systems are possible. The problem is that all dice control hawkers make unverified - but not necessarily false - claims, while some card counting hawkers make verified claims.

 

[Chapel]

I wrote a simulator to do this a while back - being able to correctly roll dice on-axis only requires a 1-in-36 success rate to break even.

So now I am forced to do some math. :grin:

Edit: If you were able to guarantee a win with your dice control technique, then you would only need to successfully use your technique 14-in-1014 times. Working the odds on a few different dice sets (one for come out, one for each point) gives you an advantage of around 50% meaning that you would need to successfully use your technique 141-in-5641 times, which is really close to 1-in-36.

I fudged a few things here and there in my calculations because I got tired and should be doing real work, but I figured out that you are pretty close to right. Which now makes me want to find the stat that you have to be 1-in-5 good to give yourself a decent edge. (I saw it during a google search.) I will note, however, that my math is all based on the dice controller being the shooter the entire time. It is possible that the site I read was basing its numbers on there being a bunch of other people at the table thus meaning that you have to make up for their lack of skill.

Also, my math did not count for the ability to take odds. That would take a little bit of pressure off the AP.

 

[moo321]

I wrote a simulator to do this a while back - being able to correctly roll dice on-axis only requires a 1-in-36 success rate to break even.

I agree. But people early in the thread suggested, if they didn't outright say, that it was impossible.

But so have system-pushers for blackjack card counting. While I agree that 90% of the people pushing card counting and 99%+ of the people pushing dice control are frauds, mathematically both systems are possible. The problem is that all dice control hawkers make unverified - but not necessarily false - claims, while some card counting hawkers make verified claims.

I don't think anyone's really disputing whether it's mathematically possible. Hell, I'm willing to believe there's even people out there doing it. I'm just not wasting my time on it until someone can prove an edge. Let the "experts" fight it out; I'll be out there playing blackjack, betting sports, and playing poker. Let me know how it goes.

 

[ChefJJ]

I don't know if being able to do it 1 in 20 times (5%) is really good enough to get an edge over the house. Probably have to get to about 1 in 4 times (25%) if you were using a on-axis type of roll to get a noticeable advantage. The real disadvantage comes from the fact that you aren't always the one shooting.

For what it's worth, you can follow the two links to see the math I did that relates On-Axis Proportion (Skill) of throws to specific bets based on several axis sets that can be used. All this information deals with strategy after the comeout. During the comeout on the Pass Line, there are several ways to take advantage, but that is a different discussion.

http://hothandcraps.blogspot.com/2007/11/odds-and-dc.html

http://hothandcraps.blogspot.com/2007/11/place-bet-combos-and-dc.html

I couldn't figure out how to copy the charts from my blog to this site, so I apologize for using the links. My shameless plug of the blog "earns" me nothing, so I'm not too ashamed :grin:

good luck

NOTE: No gambler's fallacy was used in the production of this information. I promise

 

[callipygian]

Let me know how it goes.

Not me. I can barely shuffle a stack of 10 chips, forget being able to throw dice properly.

I have, however, taken particular note of anyone I see setting the dice in favorable fashions. Most use the "hard ways" set or the "V" set, which are so common that I assume anyone who does it DOESN'T know what they're doing. But a few trips ago I saw someone who set the dice correctly for an on-axis roll without using the common sets. Unfortunately, he only got 5-6 rolls in, so I couldn't tell whether he could actually hit an on-axis roll.

 

[ChefJJ]

Not me. I can barely shuffle a stack of 10 chips, forget being able to throw dice properly.

I have, however, taken particular note of anyone I see setting the dice in favorable fashions. Most use the "hard ways" set or the "V" set, which are so common that I assume anyone who does it DOESN'T know what they're doing. But a few trips ago I saw someone who set the dice correctly for an on-axis roll without using the common sets. Unfortunately, he only got 5-6 rolls in, so I couldn't tell whether he could actually hit an on-axis roll.

Just to pop in (again) on this...the axis set isn't necessarily about what is showing on the top. It's what numbers are on the axis that the dice would rotate around with an on-axis throw.

For example, the Flying V/Big V/3 V (whatever you want to call it) has the 1-6 on the one die's axis and 2-5 on the other. There are several ways to arrange it without having that common V on top.

But, yes, it is all about have the dice stay on that access from the beginning to the end (in my opinion).

good luck

 

[Chapel]

For what it's worth, you can follow the two links to see the math I did that relates On-Axis Proportion (Skill) of throws to specific bets based on several axis sets that can be used. All this information deals with strategy after the comeout. During the comeout on the Pass Line, there are several ways to take advantage, but that is a different discussion.

http://hothandcraps.blogspot.com/2007/11/odds-and-dc.html

http://hothandcraps.blogspot.com/2007/11/place-bet-combos-and-dc.html

I couldn't figure out how to copy the charts from my blog to this site, so I apologize for using the links. My shameless plug of the blog "earns" me nothing, so I'm not too ashamed :grin:

good luck

NOTE: No gambler's fallacy was used in the production of this information. I promise

Are those numbers based on several people at the table, or just the DCer?

Also, those charts look familiar but your blog doesn't. Somewhere I think someone may have stolen your picture (or maybe I found your blog a bit back and you changed the theme.)

 

[ChefJJ]

Are those numbers based on several people at the table, or just the DCer?

Also, those charts look familiar but your blog doesn't. Somewhere I think someone may have stolen your picture (or maybe I found your blog a bit back and you changed the theme.)

I haven't changed my theme, so my tables have probably been "shared" :grin: . The numbers are based strictly on DC...no effects of playing with random rolling were factored. Since you've seen the charts, I recommend reading the info along with it to give it some context.

good luck

BTW - Which site has my charts on it?

 

[Chapel]

I haven't changed my theme, so my tables have probably been "shared" :grin: . The numbers are based strictly on DC...no effects of playing with random rolling were factored. Since you've seen the charts, I recommend reading the info along with it to give it some context.

good luck

BTW - Which site has my charts on it?

I don't remember, didn't book mark it. They might not be the same charts, but rather just a similar color scheme. I had tried to find the site again after the original post, but have been unable.

Edit: read through your blog a bit, it seems that what you are saying is at odds with what Callipygian is saying. I estimated some numbers in a few cases, so it is very possible that my estimations added up to a huge error. So, who is right? How good do I need to be with dice to give a positive EV on my rolls?

 

[GentleManSteve]

I do not think it is because anybody can produce anybody that has won money from any casinos. I think it is cause they do not want that kind of thing out there. They want the casinos to think it isn't possible. If you ever seen the show breaking Vegas then you will have seen the story about The Dominator. He was wanting to bet big money but the man who taught him was wanting him to bet small and leave when he won just a little bit. Showing that they wanted to keep it under wraps so the casinos wouldn't know about it. Though it happens they still do not believe it can happen.

I have just been practicing for a little over a week without any DVDs or books, just the dice sets and the 3 finger front and most the time I can get my number before the seven comes up. I am planning on getting the books and the DVDs so I can be at my best but as of now with just a little over a week I can hit the hard numbers most the time before the seven comes up and the other numbers before the seven comes up. Just by using the three finger front and the dice sets I found on the net. I think it can be done but think most do not want the casinos to really believe it can be done. that is why I beleive the casinos have not band it yet.

 

[moo321]

I do not think it is because anybody can produce anybody that has won money from any casinos. I think it is cause they do not want that kind of thing out there. They want the casinos to think it isn't possible. If you ever seen the show breaking Vegas then you will have seen the story about The Dominator. He was wanting to bet big money but the man who taught him was wanting him to bet small and leave when he won just a little bit. Showing that they wanted to keep it under wraps so the casinos wouldn't know about it. Though it happens they still do not believe it can happen.

I have just been practicing for a little over a week without any DVDs or books, just the dice sets and the 3 finger front and most the time I can get my number before the seven comes up. I am planning on getting the books and the DVDs so I can be at my best but as of now with just a little over a week I can hit the hard numbers most the time before the seven comes up and the other numbers before the seven comes up. Just by using the three finger front and the dice sets I found on the net. I think it can be done but think most do not want the casinos to really believe it can be done. that is why I beleive the casinos have not band it yet.

Again, keep track of your results. If you can do controlled throws over a period of time, there's probably backers out there waiting to give you a million. Post your results here. Also, are you using the pyramid foam on a standard sized craps table, and hitting the wall?

 

[GentleManSteve]

Again, keep track of your results. If you can do controlled throws over a period of time, there's probably backers out there waiting to give you a million. Post your results here. Also, are you using the pyramid foam on a standard sized craps table, and hitting the wall?

Also, are you using the pyramid foam on a standard sized craps table, and hitting the wall?

Not yet I am planning on getting a practice table soon, I am sure I can learn to do it with the pyramid backing. I have just started a little over a week now and can pretty much hit what I want before crapping out. But have used something simular like the egg carton foam backing and am doing OK with it. I have learn not to hit the foam on the up bounce from the table but bounce and hit it while the dice is on the way back down and not bouncing up into the pyramid thing "egg carton foam" for me.

I do seven out some but most the time I hit what number I try to hit. I am just learning the craps Game and figuring things out as I learn. I do not think a person can roll what they want everytime but do believe with practice somebody can get good enough to bet on the numbers that let you play until you crap out.

I will try to make a standard size craps table or buy one to practice one as well. But I will have to settle for a practice table for now.

One way of doing it is to set the dice and roll a bunch of time and get the probability down of what numbers hit the most and bet those. That way you just use one set not a different set for each number set you are trying to get. But I am learning pretty well the way I am going.

 

[moo321]

Not yet I am planning on getting a practice table soon, I am sure I can learn to do it with the pyramid backing. I have just started a little over a week now and can pretty much hit what I want before crapping out. But have used something simular like the egg carton foam backing and am doing OK with it. I have learn not to hit the foam on the up bounce from the table but bounce and hit it while the dice is on the way back down and not bouncing up into the pyramid thing "egg carton foam" for me.

I do seven out some but most the time I hit what number I try to hit. I am just learning the craps Game and figuring things out as I learn. I do not think a person can roll what they want everytime but do believe with practice somebody can get good enough to bet on the numbers that let you play until you crap out.

I will try to make a standard size craps table or buy one to practice one as well. But I will have to settle for a practice table for now.

One way of doing it is to set the dice and roll a bunch of time and get the probability down of what numbers hit the most and bet those. That way you just use one set not a different set for each number set you are trying to get. But I am learning pretty well the way I am going.

Yeah, your results are gonna tank when you put a real casino surface in there. That back wall is gonna eat up all of your control. Lots of people can control the dice in a box, but it's nearly impossible at most casinos.