Doubling bet after a losing hand..

[ihate17]

waisting out time

Thunderwalk is not interested in our math or experiences. Nor is he interested in computer simulations over millions of hands. We need people who willingly donate funds to casinos inorder to help keep playable games out there and not replace them with more slots. So I say I am finished trying to discourage him (for now at least).

ihate17

 

[ThunderWalk]

...and to all, a Good Night!

I suppose some might occasionally respond to a posting without reading the entire thread, and I understand -- I've done it myself.

Be assured that I come with a good heart, good intensions, and a willingness to learn. I try to act in a friendly way and to not respond in kind to wise-cracks and smart-aleck remarks.

I think I've mentioned before that, as with any system, method or voodoo betting strategy, anyone would be wise to set a cutoff point somewhere between zero and bankruptcy -- a spread of 4, 5, or six bets, depending on how much you bring to the game. I wouldn't bet $640 if it would leave me no room to recover. We should all be grateful they don't accept credit cards at the Blackjack table.

I've learned a lot since joining this forum. I plan on learning a counting system and to see how far that ride takes me. Since simplicity is a feature that I find alluring, from what I've read here, I think I'll start with K-O. I'm a believer in fun, profit, mathematical probabilities and computer sims. Just because I enjoy one way of playing, doesn't mean I can't appreciate another, or find something better. Who could be against improvement?

From the outset, my only point has been that I noticed a fanatical, unrealistic crusade against Martingale. Something you find in alcoholics and drug addicts is their attempt to persuade others to engage in the same activity, therefore, if their friends all do it, they can't be so bad. I get the sense that counters feel it's the only way to fly. Count, or you're not one of us. But, I thought the forum was actually a place to discuss different methods, means and aspects of BJ, and not just a boy's club for insiders.

And... Russian Roulette is played with only one bullet, but even though five out of six isn't bad, it's a game I wouldn't play. I hate losing even one hand when I'm playing "raise the bet when you win," looking for a positive streak. But, when I double on a loss, I know I'll eventually win a hand, and that makes losing one, two, three, or four hands more acceptable. I've grown to tolerate it at the level my bankroll will accommodate. When it goes beyond that, I simply walk away, or I go back to a minimum bet. Like any fisherman, you have to know when to cut the line and accept the loss.

 

[QFIT]

From the outset, my only point has been that I noticed a fanatical, unrealistic crusade against Martingale. Something you find in alcoholics and drug addicts is their attempt to persuade others to engage in the same activity, therefore, if their friends all do it, they can't be so bad.

Sorry, but you simply don't understand the circumstance. If someone came on the forum and claimed that you should double down on every BJ; and everyone said he was wrong - would you say that everyone was fanatical and liken them to alcoholics and drug addicts? We are telling you that Martingale fails because it fails and this has been known for over a century.

The fact that we are all alcoholics and drug addicts isn't relevant.

 

[shadroch]

You can't play a half martingale.
Suppose you do,and cut your losses after you lose four straight..
$10-20-40-80,then revert back to $10.You are now down $160 with zero chance of ever recovering,short of winning 16 hands in a row.

 

[zengrifter]

You can't play a half martingale.
Suppose you do,and cut your losses after you lose four straight..
$10-20-40-80,then revert back to $10.You are now down $160 with zero chance of ever recovering,short of winning 16 hands in a row.

half-martingale will LOSE LESS... so its a valid concept. zg

 

[ThunderWalk]

You can't play a half martingale.
Suppose you do,and cut your losses after you lose four straight..
$10-20-40-80,then revert back to $10.You are now down $160 with zero chance of ever recovering,short of winning 16 hands in a row.

I've said before that it's not a way of breaking Vegas, but more a way of minimizing your losses.

If you bet $10 minimum, and double the bet when you lose (including double-downs and pair splitting) you'll win $10 over and over again.

Say you bet $10 and lose, bet $20 and lose, and then bet $40 and win. You'll win back the $30 you've lost, plus $10. If you lose $10, $20, $40, $80 (so far you've lost $150) when you get paid on your next $160 bet, you get back all you've lost, plus $10. It plays out that way no matter how many hands you lose once you win. If you lose 30 hands, you'll recoup all of your money, plus $10 once you finally win a hand.

Of course, you'll have losing streaks, as well as winning streaks... double-down and pair-splitting opportunities. You'll also need enough cash to see you through the hard times, as you would anytime you sit down at a BJ table, whether you were using a system or not.

I played this afternoon at the kitchen table and dealt to three hands. Two would raise their bet on wins, and third base doubled on losses. After one 6-deck shoe, third base was ahead $305, from a $1,000 start. It doesn't always work, and you need to have the discipline to walk away (or start over) when it doesn't, just as you would any time you were having a bad session.

 

[shadroch]

I've said before that it's not a way of breaking Vegas, but more a way of minimizing your losses.

Wrong,it is a way of maximizing your losses,not minimizing them

If you bet $10 minimum, and double the bet when you lose (including double-downs and pair splitting) you'll win $10 over and over again.

Say you bet $10 and lose, bet $20 and lose, and then bet $40 and win. You'll win back the $30 you've lost, plus $10. If you lose $10, $20, $40, $80 (so far you've lost $150) when you get paid on your next $160 bet, you get back all you've lost, plus $10. It plays out that way no matter how many hands you lose once you win. If you lose 30 hands, you'll recoup all of your money, plus $10 once you finally win a hand.

Provided you had the 75,000,000,000 needed to make that last bet,you'd be correct,provided you could find a casino willing to book the bet



Of course, you'll have losing streaks, as well as winning streaks... double-down and pair-splitting opportunities. You'll also need enough cash to see you through the hard times, as you would anytime you sit down at a BJ table, whether you were using a system or not.


See my above comment.





I played this afternoon at the kitchen table and dealt to three hands. Two would raise their bet on wins, and third base doubled on losses. After one 6-deck shoe, third base was ahead $305, from a $1,000 start. It doesn't always work, and you need to have the discipline to walk away (or start over) when it doesn't, just as you would any time you were having a bad session.

Well,that does it for me. I mean, you have an entire shoe to back up your theory. Obviously those poor mathletes with their high falutin' computers were all shills for the casino industry.
Enjoy your soon to be riches. Don't forget us lil folk after you've busted the banks.

 

[Snowman75]

Progressions don't

They don't work but if your gonna use them, then ur better off increasing ur bet after a win rather than doubling after a loss. At least by increasing after a win u may be lucky enough to have won when the count was positive. The count may continue to be positive so u increase continuously until u lose. Don't double just increase. You will get alot of volatility and more likely to go broke than with flat but at least u could get luck and get in a positive count streak. Doubling when losing is worse as u may be doubling in an increasing negative count.

 

[ThunderWalk]

Well,that does it for me. I mean, you have an entire shoe to back up your theory. Obviously those poor mathletes with their high falutin' computers were all shills for the casino industry.
Enjoy your soon to be riches. Don't forget us lil folk after you've busted the banks.

Maybe next time, you might wish to read the entire thread before replying. It saves everyone from repeating material that's already been discussed. The "one shoe" mentioned in the previous post was merely an example of how it usually works... for me. I've had losing streaks too, and I've already talked about that. The issue is, there are several systems for producing a winning session besides counting. And so far, I've not seen a fool-proof method anywhere.

Point 1.
I've said before that it's not a way of breaking Vegas, but more a way of minimizing your losses.

Wrong,it is a way of maximizing your losses,not minimizing them

Not if you're betting the table minimum, and going back to it once you win a hand, or once you reach your bet spread limit.

Point 2.
If you lose 30 hands, you'll recoup all of your money, plus $10 once you finally win a hand.

Provided you had the 75,000,000,000 needed to make that last bet,you'd be correct,provided you could find a casino willing to book the bet

The point I was making is the theory. "... you'll recoup all of your money, plus $10 once you finally win a hand." In practice, I wouldn't advise anyone to double on their losses all the way to 30 hands, and only the infinitely wealthy would be able to bring that much to the table. In practice you might wish to cut it off and try to recoup your losses after 4 hands (an $80 bet at a $10 minimum table) or 5 hands ($160) or 6 hands ($360) again, depending on how much you're willing to part with at one sitting. Once you start over at $10, each winning hand will produce a $10 profit.

 

[QFIT]

Is there anybody that is fooled by these posts? If not, there is no point in responding.

 

[shadroch]

As it is the Christmas season,I was being much more charitible than normal.
However,as I stated earlier,the only way to cure martingale fever is to allow the person to experiance it himself

 

[Sonny]

Is there anybody that is fooled by these posts? If not, there is no point in responding.

I agree. I don't think anyone here is falling for this. We all know that a progression player will lose more money than someone flat betting the minimum because he is raising his bets and betting more money against the house edge. Sure it can be fun, but it definitely will not minimize your losses.

-Sonny-

 

[ThunderWalk]

Sure it can be fun, but it definitely will not minimize your losses.

-Sonny-

Your own self-control is what allows (or forces) you to minimize your losses. First, you're betting small... the minimum at the table. Losing the table minimum is better than losing 10-times that. Secondly, if you keep doubling up to the total money you brought to the table, you have no way to recover. I wouldn't double on a losing bet over a third over the total seed money, and it you're starting with $200 or something under $2000, you may want to keep it to one-quarter of that amount.

But don't take my word for it, buy six decks of cards and try it before you risk it (or any system) at the casino.

 

[ScottH]

If you lose 30 hands, you'll recoup all of your money, plus $10 once you finally win a hand.

I am willing to bet everything I own that you can't afford to take the martingale to 30 hands from a 10 dollar starting bet. Not even from a 1 dollar starting bet. It's nice in theory to say if you lose 30 hands, and you win the 31st you're up, but in reality nobody can make it to 30. Do the math of a 30 hand martingale starting from 1 dollar, and see how much you will be betting on hand 31 to recoup your dollar! Try it, it will be fun! I'll even get you started on how much a 30 hand martingale will cost you.

1+2+4+8+16+32+64+128+256+512+1024+2048... It's getting pretty expensive and I'm only at hand 12 starting from 1 dollar, instead of 10.

 

[shadroch]

10+20+40+80+160+320+640+1280+2560+5120+10,240+20,480+40,960
Thats after 13 losses.Its about $80,000 there,and this is when you just start getting into the serious money.14th loss will be for $160,000,15th would be $320,000,By your 18th you are gambling about a MILLION dollars,hoping for a $10 gain.

 

[ThunderWalk]

I am willing to bet everything I own that you can't afford to take the martingale to 30 hands from a 10 dollar starting bet. Not even from a 1 dollar starting bet. It's nice in theory to say if you lose 30 hands, and you win the 31st you're up, but in reality nobody can make it to 30. Do the math of a 30 hand martingale starting from 1 dollar, and see how much you will be betting on hand 31 to recoup your dollar! Try it, it will be fun! I'll even get you started on how much a 30 hand martingale will cost you.

1+2+4+8+16+32+64+128+256+512+1024+2048... It's getting pretty expensive and I'm only at hand 12 starting from 1 dollar, instead of 10.

I already answered that above... after the first time it was brought up.

The point I was making is the theory. "... you'll recoup all of your money, plus $10 once you finally win a hand." In practice, I wouldn't advise anyone to double on their losses all the way to 30 hands, and only the infinitely wealthy would be able to bring that much to the table. In practice you might wish to cut it off and try to recoup your losses after 4 hands (an $80 bet at a $10 minimum table) or 5 hands ($160) or 6 hands ($360) again, depending on how much you're willing to part with at one sitting. Once you start over at $10, each winning hand will produce a $10 profit.

 

[QFIT]

What we need is a way of showing these threads to casinos. Seriously, if they understand that most players believe that some magical effect will make them winners by varying their bets - despite simple math proofs to the contrary - and that no amount of effort will change the minds of voodoo players - perhaps they will realize that rule changes and paranoia about a few APs is bad policy.

 

[positiveEV]

My question is: if you can afford to bet $10,000,000 in this progression system, why the hell would you care about the $10 you would get in profit?

 

[Snowman75]

QFIT idea

Excellent idea QFIT !!!! Can someone please copy and paste on these post and put it in a book. Then we can mail it to all the casinos. They may even reduce the number of decks after reading them! Heck they may even pay 2-1 on BJ. :laugh:

 

[shadroch]

Playing a consistant martingale is a great way to get comps.Almost any casino in the world will happily invite you.