Doubling bet after a losing hand..

[ScottH]

What we need is a way of showing these threads to casinos. Seriously, if they understand that most players believe that some magical effect will make them winners by varying their bets - despite simple math proofs to the contrary - and that no amount of effort will change the minds of voodoo players - perhaps they will realize that rule changes and paranoia about a few APs is bad policy.

That's a good idea. You're right that you can't change a lot of their minds, using math or reason. Most people that "Invent" the martingale come here looking for experts to confirm their theory, and do not listen to any advice that says otherwise.

 

[Snowman75]

people

The problem is people themselves.

I'm also a member of 2 daytrading rooms. Both rooms teach and apply a methodology of their own based what the star trader uses in each room. They are good rooms 'cause they don't charge anything and the traders are mainly just good guys. They don't make calls but provide good insight and discussions on the market (specifically the YM - Dow Futures Contract).

In one of the rooms there are few people who don't like the trader's method, nor do they agree with any of the advice or recommendations. These people every now and again will make a post in the yahoo group. Other more experienced and successful traders will reply and give their opinion (since they have been asked). So... instead of being thankful that experienced traders have replied to their post, they post more posts that state how wrong they are and why.

I don't understand why they ask for advice when they aren't willing to listen.

 

[ThunderWalk]

That's a good idea. You're right that you can't change a lot of their minds, using math or reason. Most people that "Invent" the martingale come here looking for experts to confirm their theory, and do not listen to any advice that says otherwise.

Two points that "critics" often overlook.

First, I've only related the results of my own testing, and I'm not merely repeating the statements of others who seem unreasosnabilibly fearful of the practice of doubling the bet on a loss.

In truth, I never knew the practice already existed, or that it even had a name, and before I came to this forum, I thought I'd stumbled on something on my own, and by accident.

Finally... once again...

Anyone who keeps up the effort until they're out of money just has no business sitting down at a BJ table unless they can afford the loss and are playing for recreation.

I have a cut-off point. Once my bet reaches a certain amount -- depending on my bank roll -- I stop and go back to the minimum bet. If I keep playing, I'll continue to win back the money lost, and eventually become profitable again. If not, and I get hit by a losing streak a second time, I'll break-off again and start over, or try a different table. But in any event, I'm not leaving the casino without my shirt.

 

[Sonny]

… I'm not merely repeating the statements of others who seem unreasosnabilibly fearful of the practice of doubling the bet on a loss.

Why do you say unreasonably fearful? The fact is that using the Martingale system will bankrupt you more often (and faster!) than flat betting the minimum. The Martingale is one of the most dangerous systems to use because it has you raising your bets so often and so quickly (as described in those articles I gave you a link to). You are betting more money which causes you to lose more money (remember, the house still has the advantage in every hand you play), and you are raising your bets very quickly which will have you losing very big bets very soon. Why would that fact not make someone fearful?

If I keep playing, I'll continue to win back the money lost, and eventually become profitable again.

That’s not true at all! You do not have an advantage. You are still playing against the house edge. You will still lose 0.5% of all the money you bet. If you continue to play then you will continue to lose money. The math is very simple: Outcome = Total Money Bet * House Edge. This applies to all gamblers using any system that exists. It doesn’t matter how many times you “break-off” or change tables, you are still playing a losing game. Using a progression system will not give you an advantage over the casino.

But in any event, I'm not leaving the casino without my shirt.

You are, you’re just doing it in small chunks over time. At the end of the year the casino will have your entire shirt because you’re giving it to them piece by piece.

-Sonny-

 

[ScottH]

But in any event, I'm not leaving the casino without my shirt.

Well, you're one level higher than a normal martingale player. This makes me think you have some reason to you, which is why I am wondering why you havn't seen the error of your ways and learned a valid system.

I was like you one day, I "invented" the martingale. I made a ton of money, and I was ready to quit my day job. Well, that didnt last, and it probably wont for you either. So I'm not just on one side, the "card counting" side. I have been on both, and I can tell you from experience you dont want to be on the side you are on, the progression side.

It's not easy to admit you're doing something that is ''wrong", but it is the perfect time to stop before you get to the inevitable place progression players go (bankrupt). It's time to learn a counting system. DOnt just use it with progressions, just drop them all together, you'll be glad you did. If you dont and you remember these conversations you will regret it...

 

[ThunderWalk]

Well, you're one level higher than a normal martingale player. This makes me think you have some reason to you, which is why I am wondering why you havn't seen the error of your ways and learned a valid system.

I'm waiting for the book to arrive. Had to order it... you know how things are around Christmas time. :laugh:

 

[ThunderWalk]

The math is very simple: Outcome = Total Money Bet * House Edge. This applies to all gamblers using any system that exists. It doesn’t matter how many times you “break-off” or change tables, you are still playing a losing game.
-Sonny-

Gee... how depressing. Let's just all slash our wrists and give up now. I guess we're just all wasting our time here, and entertaining ourselves at the casino instead of playing video games. If all systems are doomed to failure, then consider that Martingale is just another one.

I'm not ready to give up my happy home life to become a professional gambler, and Blackjack is not a serious all-consuming part of my existence. At this point, it's more like recreation, and I'll make a study of it until it seems like I've learned a way to achieve success on a more regular basis.

Whether or not I reach that point, I don't expect to be counting up my wins vs. losses at the end of my life... and I actually own two shirts. :laugh:

 

[ScottH]

I'm waiting for the book to arrive. Had to order it... you know how things are around Christmas time. :laugh:

What book did you get?

I would read three books in this order.

1. Knockout Blackjack
2. Blackbelt in Blackjack
3. Blackjack Attack

Good luck!

 

[ThunderWalk]

What book did you get?

Since the prevailing opinion seems to be that K-O is the easiest to start with, that's what I ordered. I'll keep the others in mind.

Thanks much.

 

[Sonny]

Gee... how depressing. Let's just all slash our wrists and give up now. I guess we're just all wasting our time here…

Let’s not get melodramatic here. Once you learn how to turn the odds in your favor, so that you have the advantage instead of the house, you will be able to win no matter what system you use. Of course, that assumes you have a sufficient bankroll for whichever system you decide to use.

Whether or not I reach that point, I don't expect to be counting up my wins vs. losses at the end of my life... and I actually own two shirts. :laugh:

If you’re not concerned with wins vs. losses and you don’t care about losing some money then just stick to what you’re doing. In fact, maybe a slower progression system, like Oscar’s Grind, would be more fun and last longer. As long as you’re just playing for fun and expect to lose then you are fine. We’re just worried because you seem to expect to win using a betting progression. If you don’t want to learn card counting then you might look into comp hustling, scavenger BJ or couponomy to get a little extra edge. Otherwise you will need to learn a valid strategy.

Here's a link to some of the techniques that can give you an advantage:

http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=3995

There's a lot to learn about this game, but it can be lots of fun when you get it right!

-Sonny-

 

[ThunderWalk]

If you don’t want to learn card counting...
-Sonny-

Actually, I do and I'm working on getting there. I haven't yet read where any system -- even counting -- works all the time. I've read where some have had problems with counting, or that for whatever reason, things didn't work out they way they were planned. I just think there are other options for times when what you're doing right now isn't working and you might need some other way of playing until you're original way of playing returns to normal.

My card-playing expert friend (who has ups and downs, but usually walks away several thousand ahead) dropped in on me at the Roulette across the way from where he had been at a BJ table. When I asked how he did, he replied that it was a bad shoe. Later I learned that he lost every hand heads-up against the dealer. Until someone can convince me otherwise, I'm inclined to think that there isn't a single way of competing against the casino, and that there may be more than one way to come out ahead, using them at short intervals. I'm exploring the idea that Martingale or Oscar's Grind may be ways of altering the pattern for a time, or maybe even just a way of elevating the mind-numbing fatigue I expect to come from counting over long periods.

In any event, don't think I'm not appreciative for the advice I receive here, or that I'm bull-headed and not learning anything from good-intentioned members who respond to these posts. I've already learned more than I knew when I got here, and I feel I've been pointed in the right direction.

Heck, I've already been persuaded to purchase a book. I'm on my way to Martingale rehab. :laugh:

 

[supercoolmancool]

It is my theory that there does not exist a single professional blackjack player EVER who has made a significant amount of his money from counting. This includes any and all forms of counting. If you have to count cards to preform your particular advantage play then it is unlikely an advantage play at all.

Definately stay away from martingales and such. That is just silly. But I don't think there is any reason for anyone to ever learn card counting. It is not practical. Small advantages, huge variance, keeping sessions short, disguising play, camoflauge, travel, huge nasty horrible variance, variance, losing all your money, and other stuff. I don't think a 1 percent advantage is worth it even at rediculously high stakes and an unlimited bankroll. Look at the real pros. They don't waste their time counting or other variations of counting. I have only logged about 40 hours of play, but I have read a lot of books and articles and every thread on this site since April. Just as David Icke, I am just following the information. I am not all the way there yet, but I am getting close to the truth. My master plan is starting to unfold before my eyes. I am starting to see things clearly now. You can't keep me in the dark forever. I will find the light. I will uncover the truth. You cannot stop me.

 

[ScottH]

It is my theory that there does not exist a single professional blackjack player EVER who has made a significant amount of his money from counting. This includes any and all forms of counting. If you have to count cards to preform your particular advantage play then it is unlikely an advantage play at all.

Definately stay away from martingales and such. That is just silly. But I don't think there is any reason for anyone to ever learn card counting. It is not practical. Small advantages, huge variance, keeping sessions short, disguising play, camoflauge, travel, huge nasty horrible variance, variance, losing all your money, and other stuff. I don't think a 1 percent advantage is worth it even at rediculously high stakes and an unlimited bankroll. Look at the real pros. They don't waste their time counting or other variations of counting. I have only logged about 40 hours of play, but I have read a lot of books and articles and every thread on this site since April. Just as David Icke, I am just following the information. I am not all the way there yet, but I am getting close to the truth. My master plan is starting to unfold before my eyes. I am starting to see things clearly now. You can't keep me in the dark forever. I will find the light. I will uncover the truth. You cannot stop me.

There are other "advantages" to learning card counting than to just count cards...

 

[supercoolmancool]

Yes, but none that of those advantages, I theorize, are used by the pros for significant income.

 

[Canceler]

I haven't yet read where any system -- even counting -- works all the time.

Whenever I see something like this I want to scream, and slap someone. This is still GAMBLING, after all. Card counting does not work ALL THE TIME, it works OVER time.

I've read where some have had problems with counting, or that for whatever reason, things didn't work out they way they were planned.

What's usually not planned for is the huge ups and downs in the bankroll, known as variance. So, plan for it. Expect it.

the mind-numbing fatigue I expect to come from counting over long periods.

That does happen, at first. But with enough practice and experience you should become able to count effortlessly for hours.

Heck, I've already been persuaded to purchase a book. I'm on my way to Martingale rehab. :laugh:

Congratulations! I mean it.

 

[ScottH]

Yes, but none that of those advantages, I theorize, are used by the pros for significant income.

I meant you need to know how to count to do other, more advantagous things... if you know what I mean...

 

[shadroch]

It is my theory that there does not exist a single professional blackjack player EVER who has made a significant amount of his money from counting. This includes any and all forms of counting. If you have to count cards to preform your particular advantage play then it is unlikely an advantage play at all.

Definately stay away from martingales and such. That is just silly. But I don't think there is any reason for anyone to ever learn card counting. It is not practical. Small advantages, huge variance, keeping sessions short, disguising play, camoflauge, travel, huge nasty horrible variance, variance, losing all your money, and other stuff. I don't think a 1 percent advantage is worth it even at rediculously high stakes and an unlimited bankroll. Look at the real pros. They don't waste their time counting or other variations of counting. I have only logged about 40 hours of play, but I have read a lot of books and articles and every thread on this site since April. Just as David Icke, I am just following the information. I am not all the way there yet, but I am getting close to the truth. My master plan is starting to unfold before my eyes. I am starting to see things clearly now. You can't keep me in the dark forever. I will find the light. I will uncover the truth. You cannot stop me.

You don't think a 1% advantage is worth it?
lets suppose you play an average of $100 a hand,75 hands an hour for 20 hours over four days.
Some quick math. 100x75=7500x20=150,000. 1%of $150,000=$1,500
Suppose you play 40 weeks a year-Thats $60,000 taxfree for a very part time job.Not to even take into consideration the comps a $100 player would recieve.
Now consider playing 30 hours a week for 45 weeks.
Or you could put that $30,000 bankroll into the market and hope to get 10%
a year with almost as much variance.

 

[ScottH]

You don't think a 1% advantage is worth it?
lets suppose you play an average of $100 a hand,75 hands an hour for 20 hours over four days.
Some quick math. 100x75=7500x20=150,000. 1%of $150,000=$1,500
Suppose you play 40 weeks a year-Thats $60,000 taxfree for a very part time job.Not to even take into consideration the comps a $100 player would recieve.
Now consider playing 30 hours a week for 45 weeks.
Or you could put that $30,000 bankroll into the market and hope to get 10%
a year with almost as much variance.

It's not easy to put that many hours in at the tables and last year after year after year... aka do it professionally.

Mathematically it says its easy to be a pro, but in reality no. Casinos dont like you putting in full-time hours at a 1% advantage...

 

[shadroch]

20 hours a week is not fulltime.
Playing mostly in Vegas,spread out over seven days of the week and three shifts,you should be able to do it with little problem.Just got to work on your cover.

 

[Automatic Monkey]

You don't think a 1% advantage is worth it?
lets suppose you play an average of $100 a hand,75 hands an hour for 20 hours over four days.
Some quick math. 100x75=7500x20=150,000. 1%of $150,000=$1,500
Suppose you play 40 weeks a year-Thats $60,000 taxfree for a very part time job.Not to even take into consideration the comps a $100 player would recieve.
Now consider playing 30 hours a week for 45 weeks.
Or you could put that $30,000 bankroll into the market and hope to get 10%
a year with almost as much variance.

No way, you can get 7-9% in the fixed income market with tiny variance, and 4.5% with zero variance. You have to go to the options pit to get variance anything like what you get with blackjack.