Doubling bet after a losing hand..

[ThunderWalk]

Originally Posted by ThunderWalk
I haven't yet read where any system -- even counting -- works all the time.

Whenever I see something like this I want to scream, and slap someone. This is still GAMBLING, after all. Card counting does not work ALL THE TIME, it works OVER time.

Thank you Obi Wan. I never knew it was gambling. I thought it was like farming, or something... and I expected crops to grow.

As for slapping and screaming, you might consider getting a goat. I hear they take a good beating and recover well -- and then you can do it all over again. Just don't get caught by the ASPCA.

But seriously, Ladies and Germs...

Throughout the thread (which takes a lot of reading at this point) the people who Martingale, or who practice any method other than counting, have been ridiculed and taking a lot of flack. Most members here seem to lean heavily in favor of counting.

My point was (has always been) that there are lots of methods out there, and maybe there's no one system that works forever. Maybe one method works for an individual, but counting, for example, may not work for another. Someone not used to playing cards may have to use their fingers just to add up a seven card and a five card to get 13... no wait, 11... ah... um... no 12, that's it 12.

If I'm not more successful with counting than with what I HAVE been doing, next, I'm thinking of trying magic.

Abracadabra!

 

[shadroch]

82 replies later and he still doesn't get it.Enough already.

 

[supercoolmancool]

I meant you need to know how to count to do other, more advantagous things... if you know what I mean...

Thouse more advantagous techniques that you are talking about, well, the pros just do those for fun and NOT for profit, I theorize. I think you only win without counting.

 

[ThunderWalk]

82 replies later and he still doesn't get it.

Exactly what is "IT"?

And... what would cause you to believe that I've gained understanding? When I finally say, "You're right... counting is the only solution."

I've already stated that I've decided to learn a counting system, but since it's not fool-proof 100% of the time, it might be possible to employ other methods on occasion. I don't think that notion is far-fetched.

Maybe I'm not the one who doesn't "get it."

 

[sagefr0g]

Exactly what is "IT"?

And... what would cause you to believe that I've gained understanding? When I finally say, "You're right... counting is the only solution."

I've already stated that I've decided to learn a counting system, but since it's not fool-proof 100% of the time, it might be possible to employ other methods on occasion. I don't think that notion is far-fetched.

Maybe I'm not the one who doesn't "get it."

the it part is employment of the martingale. albeit you could concievably get lucky with it in the short run and add the results to your bankroll. problem being that if you try it again after success you approach the long run with it over time and lose your shirt.

hats off to you for being a critical thinker. it is true that methods other than card counting exist and can help those of us who enjoy doing battle with the casino's. so far in my case card counting has been the only method i've been able to employ as the joints i frequent seem to have the other bases pretty well covered.

 

[shadroch]

Exactly what is "IT"?


"IT" is your continued effort to try to somehow relate a proven method of gaining an advantage(ie counting) with a voodoo system(martingale) that has been utterly disproven for the last century.
Are there other methods of beating the game? Yes,you can learn to shuffle-track or steer the cards by proper cutting.You can learn how to spot a dealers holecard,you can learn how to add or subtract chips from your bet after your hand is dealt. You can learn the ins and out of a casinos comp policy and exploit the hell out of it.There are a few other things one can do.
But there is no betting system,progression or otherwise that will gain you an edge on the game.It really can't be stated any clearer than that.
That is what IT is that I don't believe you have yet grasped.Changing your bet based only on the results of your previous bets in NO WAY can gain you an advantage.

 

[ScottH]

Thouse more advantagous techniques that you are talking about, well, the pros just do those for fun and NOT for profit, I theorize. I think you only win without counting.

You have to count to shuffletrack, was my intended meaning.

 

[supercoolmancool]

Right and I am saying that even shuffle tracking isn't enough. People that shuffle track do it for fun. It may give them a 2-4% advantage but that isn't enough for the real pros. They do it for nostalgic purposes only. To make them feel good. This is my theory. What I am beginning to understand.

 

[ihate17]

My experience with counting

I count, hole card and have been doing it for almost 30 years now.
I agree that counting does not work all the time. Hell, I recently played against a dealer where I could see her hole card 75% of the time, probably had a 5-6% advantage and still lost, even a big edge does not work all the time. That is not what we are talking about. When you count, you are the casino and the casino is the player who is at a disadvantage. Just as the casino does not worry about losing over a short period of time, neither should you.
I do not even win every year. In the past 10 years I have won in 9 of them and have averaged making $65 dollars per hour, playing over 300 hours per year. In the past 20 years I have won in 17 of them but in my first 5 years of counting I lost in 3 of them, know why and can use this as an example for my next statement: Most people who attempt to be cardcounters LOSE! There is nothing wrong with the system, it gains an advantage, but the advantage is small and most people do things that kill that advantage and walk away saying cardcounting does not work.

Most people begin counting before they even know basic strategy perfectly and part of counting is deviating from basic strategy and proper deviation can not happen if you do not know what you are deviating from.

You need to play good games. Penetration and rules are the keys here.

You need a proper bankroll.

You must be willing to put out the proper sized bet even if the casino is kicking your butt. One session from hell has caused many a wannabee counter to fear putting out his big bets and makes him a potential failure.

You may want to look like your steaming at times but you can never really steam. If the count tanks and you lost, you can not bet big and chase your loses. Patience and pouncing on the opportunity is the key here.

Most new counters play low stakes as they should, but many after reading stuff in books and in forums are really paranoid about heat. You can not afford to give up EV as a red chipper because of assumed heat. Most casinos worth playing at will tolerate you at that level but you should still learn an act. There are plenty of ways that do not cost you that will still fool the casino. Learning these things will help you greatly when your bet level rises.

Play when tired, distracted or just plain reverse the count.

I guess I could probably add perhaps six or seven more things here, but my point here is everything listed costs you and you are only begginning with a small edge which can evaporate quickly. Too many new counters think you can read a book, practice a little and suddenly the casino becomes your personal ATM machine. Sorry, but it is really a skill that takes years of work to perfect and if you do not enjoy the game you will never put in the time to do so.

ihate17

 

[mdlbj]

Ihate17 last post sums it up. I think as he/she stated is you must have the proper bankroll. At higher limit tables, the rules are much better and you will notice a huge difference in your efforts to walk away a winner rather than a looser. At the same time as he/she explained, it is important to develop your act or many for any given situation. So true!! I am not a talker somewhat of an introvert actually but, I am like a superstar when I play. Whatever works for you. But in the end, without perfect play and the funds to get you there, you will be banging your head before that long flight home.

Best of luck.

 

[supercoolmancool]

When I go pro I'll let you know how I do it. It is possible that it will involve counting cards, just that it is my theory that if it does in fact involve counting cards, that I will be in the vast minority of blackjack pros.

 

[ihate17]

Pros are few

When I go pro I'll let you know how I do it. It is possible that it will involve counting cards, just that it is my theory that if it does in fact involve counting cards, that I will be in the vast minority of blackjack pros.

There are still some good counting teams out there and some individual pros, but their number is not very big. Most do more than count I believe. Hole carding, shuffle tracking and perhaps a few other things.
For a lone player making a living, playing blackjack full time you will have the obstacle of variance. In my case (not a pro, I have a business and other financial interests) I may have been a winner in 9 of the past 10 years but that leaves a question about what a pro does in a year of negative variance. I think Ken Uston used to pay his rent and some other bills 6 months in advance when he was flush because he understood that even if you will make money, short term (and short term can be a year) variance can be harmful.
Being a pro means a ton of travel. Your betting level must be high and at a high level you will burn out welcomes if you stay in one place too long. So off to Europe, South America, Africa, Asia and anywhere else there are playable games, of course mostly here in the U.S.
Then there is the problem for most people of family and living constantly in hotel rooms. In 1981 I tried playing full time for about 6 months. I made some fair money but missed my family and did not like the lifestyle that went with the territory.
So I guess I am saying that turning pro is not easy and may not be even what you might want. For me playing in my home state on about half my off days and making 5 or 6 trips for 4 or so days to casino locations is all I need. It suppliments my income but it has not really been about the money for years now. It is more about keeping score.

So if you get good enough to be a pro, you might instead want to be a heavy recreational advantage player. There are options.

ihate17

 

[Bojack1]

When I go pro I'll let you know how I do it. It is possible that it will involve counting cards, just that it is my theory that if it does in fact involve counting cards, that I will be in the vast minority of blackjack pros.

I'm not sure where your theory stems from but I'll tell you that its not really correct. Aside from a small group of hole carders all the other pros base at least the majority of their game on counting. Even if its just a tool for another technique its usually still imperative to be a strong counter. There are many different ways to approach a professional career, many ways to finance it, and to play it. My advice to you is save up some money and travel. Meet up with similar minded people and make impressions on those in the business you wish to excel in. In your case that would be blackjack. All you need to do is make the right impression on the right person and you can get bankrolled or staked, and than see what can be made out of what you deem a small advantage.

I'll be honest, there are some pros out there playing on huge bankrolls that aren't that good. They just at one time played good enough to fool someone to finance there playing. There are some pretty high level teams out there losing money hand over fist right now, but because of their name and reputation have no problem getting financed repeatedly. The truth about most of the big name pros is they can lose 75% of the time, as long as they win once in a while and win big, thats enough to get big money from whales to finance their projects.

Bottomline is this is not a real wholesome business. There are many paths you can take to reach your goal of playing professional. You can get real good, build up a bankroll of your own, recruit others to play that also play at a high level and can contribute to investing, and slowly through an up and down process end up making a good living. Or with a good act you can play at just a good enough level to entice people to invest in you, and lose their money while you make it, and just hit a big score once in a while so that the whales stay on the hook. Personally I think the latter is not the right way to do it, but believe it or not I am in the minority. I would get crucified if I were to name names, but there are a lot of big name players who play this way, not all of them but more than you would think. So being a pro isn't always the hard part, its what kind of pro you want to be.

 

[ThunderWalk]

the it part is employment of the martingale. albeit you could concievably get lucky with it in the short run and add the results to your bankroll. problem being that if you try it again after success you approach the long run with it over time and lose your shirt.

hats off to you for being a critical thinker. it is true that methods other than card counting exist and can help those of us who enjoy doing battle with the casino's. so far in my case card counting has been the only method i've been able to employ as the joints i frequent seem to have the other bases pretty well covered.

Thank you for your reply. Civil discourse is sometimes rare among Air Force fighter pilots, WWF fans, and top Blackjack players who seem to suffer from ego boost.

Learning a counting system is on my "to do" list, and I'll give it a fair shot. To be honest, I'm drawn to idea of counting. It seems sophisticated. It has an aura about it as though it's something real and serious BJ players engage in.

But, I'm also put off by some aspects of counting and I'll work to overcome those distasteful parts. I'm expecting to put in a lot of time learning and practicing. I'm anticipating it becoming something like a job rather than something easy and enjoyable. And I'm concerned that if I don't acquire the skills and do poorly at it... or if I do well, and risk getting caught, that either way it presents bad options. Still, I'll try.

It also seems the bankroll required is larger than what one would need employing other methods.

But I'll get there and probably be here praising the system I'm using at the moment a year from now.

Best regards,

 

[ThunderWalk]

Exactly what is "IT"?


"IT" is your continued effort to try to somehow relate a proven method of gaining an advantage(ie counting) with a voodoo system(martingale) that has been utterly disproven for the last century.
Are there other methods of beating the game? Yes,you can learn to shuffle-track or steer the cards by proper cutting.You can learn how to spot a dealers holecard,you can learn how to add or subtract chips from your bet after your hand is dealt. You can learn the ins and out of a casinos comp policy and exploit the hell out of it.There are a few other things one can do.
But there is no betting system,progression or otherwise that will gain you an edge on the game.It really can't be stated any clearer than that.
That is what IT is that I don't believe you have yet grasped.Changing your bet based only on the results of your previous bets in NO WAY can gain you an advantage.

I don't recall ever "relating" counting with Martingale, or implying they were equal. But I think there's some mischaracterization of Martingaling. More than merely, "changing your bet based only on the results of your previous bets," I see it as changing your bet on the play of the cards. If you're able to hold out long enough, eventually you'll win a hand and regain your position, plus one unit of the base minimum bet.

I don't think Martingale is for everyone, but I don't imagine that counting is for everyone either. And, if a person sets limits, as they always should, I can see it working in some situations, for short periods, without risking large losses.

 

[sagefr0g]

................... There are many different ways to approach a professional career, many ways to finance it, and to play it. My advice to you is save up some money and travel. Meet up with similar minded people and make impressions on those in the business you wish to excel in. In your case that would be blackjack. All you need to do is make the right impression on the right person and you can get bankrolled or staked, and than see what can be made out of what you deem a small advantage.

............So being a pro isn't always the hard part, its what kind of pro you want to be.

this is true and not all that unlikely if as you say one makes the right impression.
i had a whale-ish type make me an offer. i turned it down. i'm no pro and have no interest in complicating my action with other's interests. i have enough problems resolving my own expectations with respect to my profit seeking recreational play. but such opportunities do indeed exist and could be lucrative for one able to live up to the responsibility attached such as it is.

 

[ScottH]

I don't recall ever "relating" counting with Martingale, or implying they were equal. But I think there's some mischaracterization of Martingaling. More than merely, "changing your bet based only on the results of your previous bets," I see it as changing your bet on the play of the cards. If you're able to hold out long enough, eventually you'll win a hand and regain your position, plus one unit of the base minimum bet.

I don't think Martingale is for everyone, but I don't imagine that counting is for everyone either. And, if a person sets limits, as they always should, I can see it working in some situations, for short periods, without risking large losses.

I'd say the martingale is not for anyone, but you're certainly right that counting is not right for everyone. It takes a certain type of person to actually WANT to do this for a living! :laugh:

 

[ThunderWalk]

With so many so vehemently opposed to the act of doubling up after a loss, or any "progressive" system, I have to wonder if there's anyone here who has actually had any experience trying that method. Is all the bad stuff just theory or hearsay, or have you, or someone you know ever lost your shirt trying to make that method work?

 

[Sonny]

That's a good question but it's kinda lost at the end of this thread. I'll start a new thread so that more people will find it.

-Sonny-

 

[dacium]

Honestly you are an idiot if you think no one has tried this. The system has been around since gambling itself. And 'theory' is used so you don't have to try something.

For example I could pull any stupid system out of ass and you won't know if it works until you try it. But I could tell you in theory that it will fail.