happy hour blackjack! what would odds on this be?

[Quinc]

i highlighted it in black in your qoute.

 

[zengrifter]

OK, now I understand. Some of your doubles "7-8" were actually A6 and A7, not hard 7?

How much did you tip, total? zg

 

[Quinc]

i still doubled on hard 5-8 when dealer had 3-7 up card as well as A7 A8 A9 etc.. at +1 or higher... tipped maybe 10$ at the most, the dealer would go as low as 10 cards left in the deck somtimes lower sometimes a little higher. first dealer i didn't tip at all. i also only bet up to 15$ a hand 3 times and 2 out of the three i doubled and won. the other hand the dealer had a bj on the deal. but all in all it wasn't a bad day.

I just went there and came back for a bj tourny.. my girl and i got a free entry.. well i lost the tourny but i won another 25$ off of 10$ so its been a good "lucky" day.


what do you think about the next time i play having my girl sit next to me and making the same size bet as i do for the hour?

 

[Cass]

i still doubled on hard 5-8 when dealer had 3-7 up card as well as A7 A8 A9 etc.. at +1 or higher... tipped maybe 10$ at the most, the dealer would go as low as 10 cards left in the deck somtimes lower sometimes a little higher. first dealer i didn't tip at all. i also only bet up to 15$ a hand 3 times and 2 out of the three i doubled and won. the other hand the dealer had a bj on the deal. but all in all it wasn't a bad day.

I just went there and came back for a bj tourny.. my girl and i got a free entry.. well i lost the tourny but i won another 25$ off of 10$ so its been a good "lucky" day.


what do you think about the next time i play having my girl sit next to me and making the same size bet as i do for the hour?

Your expected win rate is around 2 units a hour given your spread and top bet. So once you tip $10 then you have lost all of your advantage. If you and your girl both spread 1-2 units at the same count i dont think anyone will notice... I wouldnt tip at all in this game with that low of stakes!!

 

[Cass]

Oh yeah doubling on those 5's might hurt your EV a little too

 

[Quinc]

Oh yeah doubling on those 5's might hurt your EV a little too

really? you wouldn't double on a 5 vs a dealers 6 with a postive count?

edit: i just relised why you wouldn't double on a hard 4-6... no way to beat the dealer other then to have them bust! got it!. i guess i just got caught up in all the double downs i was winning.. also i did double on a hard 5 twice and won both times! but i will never do it again!

good point about the tipping i will have to try and not be so nice.

 

[zengrifter]

**More responses

i still doubled on hard 5-8 when dealer had 3-7 up card

**Oh? See that in Uston, did you?

as well as ... A8 A9 etc.. at +1 or higher...

**Also incorrect

tipped maybe 10$ at the most,

**"At the most"!! 30-50% of your EV... shouldn't have tipped at all.

the dealer would go as low as 10 cards left in the deck somtimes lower sometimes a little higher. first dealer i didn't tip at all. i also only bet up to 15$ a hand 3 times and 2 out of the three i doubled and won.

**You didn't bet the way you were instructed, costing you money...

the other hand the dealer had a bj on the deal. but all in all it wasn't a bad day. I just went there and came back for a bj tourny.. my girl and i got a free entry.. well i lost the tourny but i won another 25$ off of 10$ so its been a good "lucky" day. what do you think about the next time i play having my girl sit next to me and making the same size bet as i do for the hour?

**...on the other hand, the asumption was that you AT LEAST KNEW BASIC STRATEGY - SO YOU DIDN'T EVEN KNOW CORRECT BS, NOR DID YOU FOLLOW THE BETTING ADVICE THAT YOU NEEDED TO HAVE... AND THEN YOU TIP HALF YOUR EV, WITHOUT DISCUSSION!!!

**I say yes, let your girlfiriend sit next to you... AND LET HER PLAY THE HANDS! zg

 

[bj bob]

Cash cow

I think that Quinc has discovered the proverbial cash cow here as long as it lasts. Also ,when he refines his game a little, he can only expect even a higher EV. What do you think?

 

[zengrifter]

I think that Quinc has discovered the proverbial cash cow here as long as it lasts. Also ,when he refines his game a little, he can only expect even a higher EV. What do you think?

I think NO MORE TIPPING, and he better re-audit his BS. Also, on the betting: top-bet $25 or 2x 15. zg

 

[Sonny]

I think that Quinc has discovered the proverbial cash cow here as long as it lasts. Also ,when he refines his game a little, he can only expect even a higher EV. What do you think?

It is certainly a great opportunity to win some money, but playing a +EV game with a -EV strategy still adds up to a losing game. As ZG said, he will need to learn proper BS and betting strategies, as well as stop tipping, before he can expect to have a +EV. At this point he is still relying on luck, not skill.

-Sonny-

 

[Quinc]

of course i didn't follow perfect b.s... if i would have i wouldn't have done as well. If the dealer is busting 9 out of 10 times with an 3-6 upcard then why not play it out? I took a chance and it worked out. even if it wouldn't have worked out i still would have doubled my b.r. and left.
if it means anything or not between the 2 tables i was at, probly 7 people total every person there started with at least 300+ and out of everyone playing i was only one that made any money... so i figuar, out of all them, at least one of them had to know b.s. or they are all just old with money..


so my question for you zg is if you would stick with b.s tell the end, or if you would switch over to what seems to be working at the time being?

 

[MGP]

Positive EV off the Top

I'm not sure why you would count this game, but then again I'm not a counter. It seems to me that counting might burn the game out but who knows. Maybe it makes sense to count it since it probably won't last anyways.

My CA can't take into account all of the rules but even with just 1D S17 DOA SPL3 you have a positive EV using a TD strategy (0.002%). Even just using a 2C strategy increases your EV to 0.03%

The things my CA can't take into account are the 6-swap rule, and bonuses from other players. However just adding the following 3 rules:

Player BJ vs Dealer BJ pays 2:1 (instead of pushing)
Suited Player BJ pays 2:1
Suited 6-7-8 pays 2:1
Any 7-7-7 pays 2:1

I get an EV of 0.408% just using a 2C strategy.

An estimate of the 6-Swap rule adds a another 0.029% for a net EV of about 0.437%.

I got the 6-Swap estimate by taking the weighted average of the strategy EV's for all 2 card hands with a 10 against all the upcards, then subtracting about -0.06% which was the maximum effect of removal of the 6 for any of the 2-card hands with a 10 against any upcard (the average was probably closer to around -0.01%), and then looking at the difference taking into account the effect of dealer blackjack - but not taking into effect the player-dealer tie BJs as well as the probability of starting with a 10,6. The latter is likely evened out by the overestimate of EOR.

The bonuses from other players will obviously add even more but I'm too lazy to guestimate it.

Anyways, if you actually played a proper 2C strategy you could get away with flat betting and still have a positive EV. Given how far off you were playing though from BS I doubt you'd get backed off, but maybe if it looked like you knew what you were doing, you might not even get away with flat betting. Others have a million times more experience than me in those areas though.

 

[Canceler]

Uh oh!

so my question for you zg is if you would stick with b.s tell the end, or if you would switch over to what seems to be working at the time being?

:flame: DANGER! :gun: DANGER! :bomb:

 

[zengrifter]

of course i didn't follow perfect b.s... if i would have i wouldn't have done as well. If the dealer is busting 9 out of 10 times with an 3-6 upcard then why not play it out? ....so my question for you zg is if you would stick with b.s tell the end, or if you would switch over to what seems to be working at the time being?

:laugh: > > :yikes: Danger Will Robinson Danger Danger!!!
Here's Quinc ->:bomb:

i was going off what i learned in ken ustons million dollar blackjack.

 

[zengrifter]

of course i didn't follow perfect b.s... if i would have i wouldn't have done as well. If the dealer is busting 9 out of 10 times with an 3-6 upcard then why not play it out? I took a chance and it worked out. even if it wouldn't have worked out i still would have doubled my b.r. and left.
if it means anything or not between the 2 tables i was at, probly 7 people total every person there started with at least 300+ and out of everyone playing i was only one that made any money... so i figuar, out of all them, at least one of them had to know b.s. or they are all just old with money..


so my question for you zg is if you would stick with b.s tell the end, or if you would switch over to what seems to be working at the time being?

All kidding aside, you certainly had me fooled! zg

 

[Sonny]

of course i didn't follow perfect b.s.

Oh, of course! Why would you? How silly of us to think such a thing!

I took a chance and it worked out. even if it wouldn't have worked out i still would have doubled my b.r. and left.

This time maybe, but what about the next time you start doubling on a hard 5 and end up losing all the money you won before, and then some? You made some very bad decisions and got very lucky. You should quit while you’re ahead.

so i figuar, out of all them, at least one of them had to know b.s. or they are all just old with money..

That is not a safe assumption. I have been playing BJ for over 6 years and I still have not seen another player who plays accurate BS in a casino. In fact, the old guys are usually the worst!

so my question for you zg is if you would stick with b.s tell the end, or if you would switch over to what seems to be working at the time being?

Well, I can’t speak for ZG (actually, I probably can in this case), but here’s my answer:

I would make the CORRECT play every time. After all, BS is always the correct play (unless you are counting cards). To follow hunches and make guesses is not the correct way to play - it is just mindless gambling. You can find wild gamblers making dumb plays all day long. Some of them might win but most of them will lose badly. That is exactly what we spend so much effort trying to avoid!

Sure, your plays may have worked out this time, but they won’t next time. Why would you purposely make the wrong decision? I don’t understand that. If you are driving down the road and approach an intersection with a stop sign but there are no other cars around, would you still stop? According to your logic you wouldn’t because you didn’t need to that particular time. Sure, you probably didn’t get into an accident and probably got to your destination a little quicker, but guess what…you WILL eventually crash if you continually make the wrong decisions in life. And that one crash will be enough to overcome all of the times it worked out in your favor.

Life is all about making the correct decisions, and gambling is all about playing without having to rely on luck. You can’t be successful at either unless you make intelligent decisions.

-Sonny-

 

[Quinc]

yes i relise that b.s is the best way to win at blackjack in the long run.. but what about trends? if your playing roulette and red comes up 50 times in a row are you going to bet black? do you guys not think for yourselves? yeah everyone and thing says play b.s, but what if you just happen to be lucky one day, why not play it out for all its worth. yes alot of what i did was wrong, but it worked. Now if the dealer was making more hands out of her 3-6 upcards instead busting then no i wouldn't have doubled down so much but she was and I was going to take advantage it.


yes i do fully agree with everyone that what i did went against all the rules. but it worked.....

 

[zengrifter]

yes i relise that b.s is the best way to win at blackjack in the long run.. but what about trends? if your playing roulette and red comes up 50 times in a row are you going to bet black? do you guys not think for yourselves? yeah everyone and thing says play b.s, but what if you just happen to be lucky one day, why not play it out for all its worth. yes alot of what i did was wrong, but it worked. Now if the dealer was making more hands out of her 3-6 upcards instead busting then no i wouldn't have doubled down so much but she was and I was going to take advantage it.


yes i do fully agree with everyone that what i did went against all the rules. but it worked.....

Totally incorrect thinking - not scientific - not in acordance with statistical logic. As for when to deviate from BS, thats what indices are for! zg

 

[bj bob]

Give the poor guy a break!Zg

We all know that Quinc is deviating from BS(Does that therefore make him a deviant?) I really think that he is providing the rest of us with a rare opportunity to take advantage of an over generous situation that,although seldom offered,is valueable.Why, you should be on the plane this Sun. afternoon flying into Cannon(HA HA!) and giving the man some fatherly guidance(while kicking some serious butt)Straighten him out on BS and those evil indeces and all will be fine!

 

[zengrifter]

If I met someone who fancied he wanted to race cars, but he drove fast while mostly looking in the rearview mirror... would it be right to give him a break? zg