Hi, I'm new, I worked in the industry, in ...

[UncrownedKing]

I wasn't criticizing your numbers, I was asking why most fall short. So I know what to expect when I eventually get to the battlefield.

 

[Katweezel]

Huge effort required

Uncrowned KIng asked what is the reason for the 99% failure rate that I stated.

Firstly, I imagine that it is much higher than 99%.

Every year hundreds of thousands of people read a book or two and/or they
troll sites such as these in a futile attempt to "make it" as C.C.'s

They all imagine that it is all as simple as what they have read.
Being a serious card counter is heavily nuanced. There are quite
a lot of subtleties that it takes a lot of experience to even begin to appreciate.

Author's of books cannot expect to stifle the sales of their own books
by telling you on page one that you are unlikely to do anything other
than lose your money whilst becoming disillusioned and frustrated with BJ.
But that is the reality of the endeavor.

It takes extreme dedication, fine emotional equanimity, a detached attitude regarding money,
a willingness to be an "outlaw", [that is to live a rather unconventional life], a huge bankroll, etc.

The "bottom line", as it were, is that if one expects to be a weekend warrior and "crush" the game,
it aint goin' to happen; at least not over the long run.

Forewarned is forearmed.

Flash, how much higher than 99% can you get? (as in your line #2)
Just when many (younger people) have digested the illusions of cardcounting portrayed in the movie '21', you come along with the dismal truth of the matter.

I suspect that a 'much higher than 99%' proportion who read the dismal truth, will reject it in favor of more glamorous, more exciting and more enticing
ideas. Ideas that don't look like so much hard work, dedication and effort. :cat:

 

[FLASH1296]

I am asked: "Flash, how much higher than 99% can you get?"

Considerably higher.

I suspect that 99.5% [+/- .15%] is a more accurate estimate,

not that a "true" figure is possible to determine.

 

[johndoe]

I would concur that most are out by the time they are 30. 99% is just a number but it seems like a good one. Don't be discouraged I don't think 99% fail but they just move on. They have jobs, families, new hobbies etc. Because they move on in life I wouldn't call them failed card counters, they just retire, early.

I agree completely. Many, many people underestimate the bankroll swings they need to tolerate, and overestimate their hourly winning potential. But even out of the ones who would be (or are) otherwise very successful in BJ, I'm sure plenty just get bored with it and choose to do more productive (and profitable) things. So there aren't many left.

The casino lifestyle can be very enticing to a youngster, and once the love of the game fades it can just become a grind. They'll want more stable jobs, families, etc. at some point.

There are good life-lessons out of it that map well to business though: understand the odds you're dealing with, and when you have the advantage, put the chips out!

 

[Martin Gayle]

Flash, how much higher than 99% can you get? (as in your line #2)
Just when many (younger people) have digested the illusions of cardcounting portrayed in the movie '21', you come along with the dismal truth of the matter.

I suspect that a 'much higher than 99%' proportion who read the dismal truth, will reject it in favor of more glamorous, more exciting and more enticing
ideas. Ideas that don't look like so much hard work, dedication and effort. :cat:

I am not one to support Flash's hyperbole but I will play with this one.

Picture this. On 8 Apr 1979 a young Flash reads BtheD and is inspired to be a card counter. 500 other people across America look into beating the casinos card counting...how many do you think are still working? How many 21 year old's who have seen "21" will still be counting cards at 60?

I like to consider AP an Urban Legend. Everyone knows someone who does it but has never seen it happen. Popular media has caused highs and lows in people who want to BtheD. Think of Rain Man. The Vegas scene is farcical but think about what it must have done for autistics wanting to crush the MGM.

 

[Katweezel]

Autistic counters Cruising

I am not one to support Flash's hyperbole but I will play with this one.

Picture this. On 8 Apr 1979 a young Flash reads BtheD and is inspired to be a card counter. 500 other people across America look into beating the casinos card counting...how many do you think are still working? How many 21 year old's who have seen "21" will still be counting cards at 60?

I like to consider AP an Urban Legend. Everyone knows someone who does it but has never seen it happen. Popular media has caused highs and lows in people who want to BtheD. Think of Rain Man. The Vegas scene is farcical but think about what it must have done for autistics wanting to crush the MGM.

It may have been Rainman's card counting that finally flipped Tom Cruise into believing in aliens and scientology. My wife thinks I'm heading the same way. :cat:

 

[jimbiggs]

Questions for Mr. M.

When the pit crew or surveliance gets suspicious, do they pull up a rated player's history? Will they look at information on his player's card? Is this information used to determine a barring? Or do they just go by evaluating actual play? What if the player leaves during the evaluation? Do they back up the tapes to evaluate the entire playing session?

If a counter walked into a casino where he was barred from playing blackjack, and picked up a random player's card left in a slot machine, used it to play blackjack at the tables, would casino personnel notice? Maybe by checking the DOB on the card and comparing it with how old the player looks? Would there be consequences?

 

[ohbehave]

Mr. M... there have been discussions on this board concerning the practice of ratholing of chips. It is of my opinion that ratholing is essential for the card counter to show a lifetime loss. This is a top concern as far as table play goes, would you agree, to make sure that regular players are not lifetime winners?

My question is if there are any measures in place to root out players who rathole black chips (or higher)? If say a player can rathole without being observed in the action of doing so can the pit pin ratholing of black chips to a player just by tracking their action?

 

[Mr.M]

Questions for Mr. M.

When the pit crew or surveliance gets suspicious, do they pull up a rated player's history? Will they look at information on his player's card? Is this information used to determine a barring? Or do they just go by evaluating actual play? What if the player leaves during the evaluation? Do they back up the tapes to evaluate the entire playing session?

If a counter walked into a casino where he was barred from playing blackjack, and picked up a random player's card left in a slot machine, used it to play blackjack at the tables, would casino personnel notice? Maybe by checking the DOB on the card and comparing it with how old the player looks? Would there be consequences?

Yes they pull up all avialable information from any sister properties also. They will back the tape up and see the play.

They will notice only if they reckonize you, they cant do anything but ask you to leave again.

 

[Mr.M]

Mr. M... there have been discussions on this board concerning the practice of ratholing of chips. It is of my opinion that ratholing is essential for the card counter to show a lifetime loss. This is a top concern as far as table play goes, would you agree, to make sure that regular players are not lifetime winners?

My question is if there are any measures in place to root out players who rathole black chips (or higher)? If say a player can rathole without being observed in the action of doing so can the pit pin ratholing of black chips to a player just by tracking their action?

It makes it hard to spot on a review. But if you are tagged by the pit as rat holing then they advise surveillance and they will watch closely. It's one of those things if you can get away with it they won't know, but once they smell something fishy they pounce like a shark smelling blood. Again I emphasize time spent in the casino, it has to be short. Even if if you don't win, I know this is hard for people who don't have casinos all around them. But in the ideal situation , in and out in under 20 min.

They might not notice till they suspect you're doing something, then if they call surveillance doesn't usually check DOB unless they know something is going on. Depends on the room, some just get the call and log it without looking at any history, some rooms are required to look up the name in the players card database. Were I was at they also had the drivers license picture pop up when you entered the name in the database, so I guess you could be in a real pickle then. I don't think they will do anything but question you, then you can make up a story that you accidentally had your friends card and give up your ID. They won't jump down your throat right away, but you have to play stupid and be polite. I wouldn't suggest counting at this point, they may watch you to make sure nothing funny is going on.

I have personally been playing DD and play no more than 2 shuffles, I can spread this out over 20 to 30 casinos and AM and PM play. I have only found as of yet Sam's Town not worth playing, they shuffles up when I increased 3 or 4 units. I might be in the same casino once in 2 weeks or a month on the same shift. They just won't have enough play to determine unless its obvious, but if the count is going up and I am winning it could be just a win pro, or I am losing and the count goes up near the end. I could be hunch betting or possibly negative progression. I have to add a unit or 2 for cover if the count is even. Without sufficient hands the house is stumped. Then the fact that the surveillance crew sees you only once a month makes it darn near impossible. Without a players card they are in a real dilemma.

 

[callipygian]

any measures in place to root out players who rathole black chips (or higher)?

Someone posted somewhere (maybe not even on this board, I can't remember) that ratholing blacks will cause more trouble than it's worth; they recommend ratholing greens, max.

IIRC the exact suggestion was to bet non-round amounts (e.g. $105 or $175) in an effort to get a massive pile of multicolored chips in front of you; the blacks will be watched but not the greens or reds.

 

[ohbehave]

Someone posted somewhere (maybe not even on this board, I can't remember) that ratholing blacks will cause more trouble than it's worth; they recommend ratholing greens, max.

IIRC the exact suggestion was to bet non-round amounts (e.g. $105 or $175) in an effort to get a massive pile of multicolored chips in front of you; the blacks will be watched but not the greens or reds.

Right, I've read that too. This is merely hypothetical for me since I'm still a green chipper. Seems it would be difficult to rathole enough greens at black minimum to make a difference.

Also, if your betting black those chips are in constant motion. Its not as if you only have 3 or 4 black just sitting there. So can the pit really keep an exact tally unless their watching every bet and they aren't going to do that.

After accumulating a nice stack of black color up some to purple so if anything the pit is watching your purple. Rathole some black. When you have 4 black take a bathroom break and cash the blacks. Now you have that cash in your pocket for more buy-ins if needed. Unless your at the table when they count down the rack they probably won't miss the blacks.

 

[Joseph Weil]

ratholing blacks

Do not go and cash out during a bathroom break.do not even cash out after the session.leave and come back at another time to cash out unless you will not be returning to this casino.

 

[Pyrrhonian]

Yes they pull up all avialable information from any sister properties also. They will back the tape up and see the play.

They will notice only if they reckonize you, they cant do anything but ask you to leave again.

Hey Mr. M, it's been a while since you've been on, but I'd like to ask you a question. What policies did your casino have regarding Spanish 21? Have you ever seen anyone banned or backed off from playing it? Did you guys monitor the game or see if anyone was counting it? Thanks very much!