ZenKinG said:
Wow! A high TC doesn't mean i'll win more often??
If you are going to try to repeat what I said at least do me the courtesy of not editing down my statement to lose its context. I said a high count doesn't mean you are likely to win
in itself. If your lack of understanding is so deep I have to spell it out for you I will this one time. My entire post was showing when you actually played with an advantage as opposed to you expected to play with an advantage. You can have a TC of 20 but if the good cards are behind the cut card you never played with an advantage despite having that expectation.
ZenKinG said:
This thread was NOT about not winning in a high TC, so instead of twisting the thread to try and make yourself sound smart on a particular subject, actually read what I wrote instead. It was about the amount of consecutive times it hit a high TC shoe after shoe on an 8 deck game.
I have played for days and had an advantage in pretty much every shoe and I have played for days and rarely seen an advantage shoe. It is called variance. Random includes every possible outcome. You need a large data set to prove something is not random. In this situation how big a sampling depends on how many cards remain never seen. If you see every card one shoe is all you need. The more unseen card the larger the sample needs to be to show things are not random. You results will never be an indication of a loaded shoe and it would take a huge sample for things to even start to converge with 2 decks cut off as you indicated. By even suggesting that your results or an eight shoe sampling would be even remotely significant you show you don't understand anything about what it takes to prove you are being cheated. In retrospect every second in the casino can be seen as impossible odds. Example: The last 20 cards were Ah, 2s, 5d,9d, ..., Kc. The odds of that happening are higher than me winning the lotto so it must be cheating. You can say that for whatever the last 20 cards were. Well guess what, the odds of any past event happening is 100% because it happening is a given. The odds of predicting the next 20 cards will fall in that order is astronomical. I think even you can understand that. Think about that the next time you say that any event that happened is out of the ordinary. This is why you need a very very large sampling to make any assessment of what already happened. If you wait for something to seem unusual and think about that small sampling in retrospect of course you will think it is odd. That is what made you think about that small sampling to begin with. You need a massive sampling to make the odd event or sing of events that happened and caught your attention to mean anything.
Think about the law of large numbers. You are flipping a coin and eventually you know you will get 20 tails in a row. It just happens to happen very quickly or in the situation that caught your attention the first at a point in your sampling. If you include that string as the start of you records you will see a bias in results favoring heads but after enough trials the results will approach 50% heads and 50% tails. That is not because tails are now more likely. That is because the ratio of that 20 tail head start will become less and less significant as the denominator grows:
20/20 = 100% tails
80 more flip at 40 heads and 40 tails, 60/100 = 60% tails
900 more flips at 450 tails and 450 heads, 510/1000 = 51% tails
9000 more flips at 4500 tails and 4500 heads. 5010/10000 = 50.1% tails
90000 more flips at 45000 heads and 45000 tails, 50010/100000 = 50.01% tails
This is easy to understand and shows why a very large sampling is needed to prove a bias. Even thinking a sampling of 8 shoes shows anything of any significance just shows you don't understand. Everyone participating in the thread explained this in many different ways but you still are unteachable. This fits 100% with a very large sampling of your past posts across many forums. So I can say with a very high degree of certainty you will still not understand and come back with a post saying I am wrong that simply proves nothing other than you still don't understand.