Just when I thought Vegas was legit

[ZenKinG]

Haha. I thought you were being clever with a veiled Leonard Skynard reference. But now I see that you were trying to insult me by linking me to some forum outcast. Whatever. You are pretty funny calling yourself a fraud because you were on gambling with an edge under your alter ego LoneWolf. I guess you are trying to turn the posting to humorous. I will play along and laugh at the forum outcast reference instead of being offended. You had me going before you poked fun at yourself as well. Now I see your absurd comments were an attempt at levity. lol

No that wasnt me, I already cleared that up on the WOV forum saying there was a fake LoneWoLF on GWAE. I made sure to clear that up because in my signature I had that moniker. Nice try to counter insult me though. I dont even have anything against you whether or not youre Tthree i domt care. Your reading comprehension issues caused this little argument on here.

 

[KewlJ]

If in fact member "Dummy" is indeed the same person who posts as Three (formerly Tthree) as ZenKinG alleges, I don't object to his presence here, but being that he already had an account on this forum as Tthree, creating a new account and handle is basically the act known as a sock puppetry. Personally, I never cared for people using multiple handles on different sites throughout the community, let alone different handles on the same site. Most legitimate players have one handle that they are known throughout the community. Having multiple handles just seems deceitful IMO. BUT, to give credit where credit is due....it would be a most appropriate handle.

 

[ZenKinG]

Its official lost another 3 shoes in a row which NEVER happens on Casino Verite, but in vegas and real life, it happens no problem. Not to mention i immediately started losing as soon as i saw someone get paid on a double down push and I didnt say anything and let him get away with it. So because I did thqt, i immediately get cursed. Happens all the time. Like ive been saying all these years, god hates me i only get bad karma but i never get good karma in anything. If something bad occurs i immediately get cursed every time as soon as it happens. This is why im the best. As cursed as i am i still cant be stopped, just let that sink in. I also love the trolling aspect of it, it ALWAYS happens immediately right after i did something bad to someone or something as a troll just to piss me off even more.

God bless me. I might as well just jump off a bridge tomorrow. Fuck my 54k and fuck this town and world.

 

[Dummy]

You have to go with your gut. I don't think you are being cheated but if you believe it could be happening just don't play there anymore. Better safe than sorry. It's that simple. And it is good to warn people but your idea of proof is not even close to proof. Please stop going where you are cursed and or being cheated so you don't have to make threads were you declare something with nothing close to proof and if you are right you don't put yourself through this in a repeating cycle. I have places I have a hard time winning despite them theoretically being among the best opportunities. What makes them the best opportunities also make results extremely volatile. I understand why it is hard to win there. I won't post it so as not to educate casino staff. I feel lucky to get in and out and not lose money in the few places like this. I don't show up very often and keep sessions shorter than other places.

I go to the places I am confident I will win more often. What steadies results at the places I have confidence in my likelihood to win is often things that aren't as favorable to the theoretical value off the game. With the volatility reduced my results are much more steady. More steady BR growth with a slightly lower EV is more desirable in my opinion than higher EV that comes with much more unpredictable results. Its probably just a matter of what bothers me and what I am comfortable with. Since I need to remove money from my BR at least several times a year to pay all my bills since I am a pro, it is much easier emotionally to put more of a premium on steady results than higher EV. I don't want to drive myself crazy with crazy swings to get a small amount of extra EV if I don't have to. Waiting for a higher EV increase to double and in some cases split and surrender when slightly negative EV to do so can really help smooth things out without costing much EV because the EV gain is not that much. Having ways to tailor volatile decisions to have a stronger decision to start with also really helps to both get some of the EV back from waiting for a higher TC to double and in general smooth the high volatility associated with the play. It is nice to increase the EV gain after the index is exceeded, make more accurate decisions to eliminate doubles where your expected plus EV is not there for the actual deck composition, and forgo the smaller gain EV TCs at the index to what for larger gain before you make the more volatile gains. If you can increase decision accuracy enough (rate of gain after the index is exceeded by making fewer negative EV decisions for the current deck composition and doubling plus EV doubles that you wouldn't double with a weaker decision strategy) the gain in EV with the low volatility adjusted doubling decision process is a higher EV than the high volatility doubling decision.

 

[Dummy]

ZK, I suggest you think about what affects you and play to emotional security rather than drive yourself crazy with your results. The most obvious step is don't play anywhere you suspect you are being cheated, ever. I have read rants like this before from you and your pattern is to keep going back rather than go less often or not at all. I don't think many can understand the rational behind that decision and we don't have to. I am sure you know yourself well enough that you know. Just stop following that impulse. You will be much happier and if you are right so will your BR.

KJ seems well adjusted to the normal huge swings associated with playing to a really high EV. But I bet there is a point when losing streaks of tens of thousands of dollars, as is very common for pros, starts to get to him. Trading some EV for less volatile results. Of the last three years, the year I made close to $50K instead of close to $100K was the year I tried to increase EV. I could have just as easily been on the plus side of variance with the more volatile higher EV but I wasn't. My EV was a lot higher but so was volatility. I have gone back to the less aggressive approach and am on course to make the higher amount of money.

With such a large BR many if not most pros don't worry about volatility but in my opinion that is best for team play. As a solo player I find it better to forgot some EV generated in more volatile situations for steadier BR growth but that is a personal decision each player must make. I choose to leverage my BR toward having less volatility and much steadier BR growth rather than putting EV as my primary focus. I will make enough money either way, but increasing certainty of BR growth is much more important to me than an few percentage points in EV. If done right it might even increase EV. I know I may be in the minority with this concept among pro. Or maybe we are a silent majority.

 

[xengrifter]

I really tried to convince myself this city offered a fair game, I did, I really did, but this city is completely rigged and I finally have the data to prove it...

...The fact that Im still up over 5 figures in this mob infested town really shows how great i am. Even with casinos cheating me, I still cant be beat, go figure.

that's why you are the king!

 

[KewlJ]

Not to mention i immediately started losing as soon as i saw someone get paid on a double down push and I didnt say anything and let him get away with it. So because I did thqt, i immediately get cursed. Happens all the time. Like ive been saying all these years, god hates me i only get bad karma but i never get good karma in anything. If something bad occurs i immediately get cursed every time as soon as it happens.

This is nuts! Complete voodoo type thinking. You really need to get a grip on reality.

Its official lost another 3 shoes in a row which NEVER happens on Casino Verite, but in vegas and real life, it happens no problem.

I can't speak to what happens on Casino Verite. I don't use practice software. I have always practiced the old fashion way, by dealing rounds to myself from my blackjack table, and my kitchen table before that. That's just me. And that is nothing against Norm. His software is the best. I use it frequently for simulations and confirming math and such. I just don't practice using software.

BUT, in real life 3 shoes has absolutely zero meaning! 10 shoes has no meaning. 30 shoes has no meaning. I keep telling you these small....very small sample sizes mean nothing! Absolutely no meaning what-so-ever!

If you have played the amount you claim to have played you should be well beyond placing any meaning is such a small and completely insignificant sample size. I mean you are at step one and don't seem to be progressing in this regard. Let go of that ridiculous freaking notion that 3 shoes or any small sample size means has ANY meaning. THINK LONGTERM....ALWAYS!

 

[hitthat16]

Three whole shoes? How do you sleep at night?!

 

[ZenKinG]

This is nuts! Complete voodoo type thinking. You really need to get a grip on reality.



I can't speak to what happens on Casino Verite. I don't use practice software. I have always practiced the old fashion way, by dealing rounds to myself from my blackjack table, and my kitchen table before that. That's just me. And that is nothing against Norm. His software is the best. I use it frequently for simulations and confirming math and such. I just don't practice using software.

BUT, in real life 3 shoes has absolutely zero meaning! 10 shoes has no meaning. 30 shoes has no meaning. I keep telling you these small....very small sample sizes mean nothing! Absolutely no meaning what-so-ever!

If you have played the amount you claim to have played you should be well beyond placing any meaning is such a small and completely insignificant sample size. I mean you are at step one and don't seem to be progressing in this regard. Let go of that ridiculous freaking notion that 3 shoes or any small sample size means has ANY meaning. THINK LONGTERM....ALWAYS!

It never used to. I always thought long-term and didn't care about my short term results, but for whatever reason lately I started noticing on Verite that I never lose more than 3 shoes, and very rarely 3 shoes at all when I backcount so that thought has gone into my head and maybe it's turning me into subconsciously having a ploppy mindset slowly and I need to stop that. Of course, believe it or not, I NEVER tilt at the tables and always bet according to plan and lately never even play a negative count. I guess all the stress ever since I moved here has got me going a bit crazy. So many thoughts just going into my head.

I even started to think heads up is a scam partly because I haven't been able to sim heads up. Every time I sim it on CVCX I get some weird results I dont know why. Looking back my BIGGEST losses always came from playing heads up when I spread to 2 hands and I've never been killed that same way when I backcount compared to heads up. Of course I've also had my biggest wins from heads up and yes you get more rounds in per hour heads up, but not necessarily. Just feels everytime I play heads up and I spread to 2 hands, my max bets get wiped out more than not and I'll have a shoe from hell such as a -3k loss which NEVER happens backcounting. Maybe another ploppy thing entering my mind these days. Hopefully someone can show me a sim of Halves, indices from -1 to +11 wong out at -1 heads up 1x15-2x200 and tell me what the standard deviation is per hour. When I backcount my std dev per hour is around 1k per hour.

Maybe it's the feeling thaat my bankroll would be over 70k had I just stayed home and waited another year before making the move. Watching my bankroll stagnate due to expenses over the last year feels like I've been stuck in time and just wasted a year of my life. I guess I should've forced myself to play more, but I haven't been used to playing 'full time', so it's been an adjustment to say the least.

 

[SplitFaceDisaster]

It never used to. I always thought long-term and didn't care about my short term results, but for whatever reason lately I started noticing on Verite that I never lose more than 3 shoes, and very rarely 3 shoes at all when I backcount so that thought has gone into my head and maybe it's turning me into subconsciously having a ploppy mindset slowly and I need to stop that. Of course, believe it or not, I NEVER tilt at the tables and always bet according to plan and lately never even play a negative count. I guess all the stress ever since I moved here has got me going a bit crazy. So many thoughts just going into my head.

I even started to think heads up is a scam partly because I haven't been able to sim heads up. Every time I sim it on CVCX I get some weird results I dont know why. Looking back my BIGGEST losses always came from playing heads up when I spread to 2 hands and I've never been killed that same way when I backcount compared to heads up. Of course I've also had my biggest wins from heads up and yes you get more rounds in per hour heads up, but not necessarily. Just feels everytime I play heads up and I spread to 2 hands, my max bets get wiped out more than not and I'll have a shoe from hell such as a -3k loss which NEVER happens backcounting. Maybe another ploppy thing entering my mind these days. Hopefully someone can show me a sim of Halves, indices from -1 to +11 wong out at -1 heads up 1x15-2x200 and tell me what the standard deviation is per hour. When I backcount my std dev per hour is around 1k per hour.

Maybe it's the feeling thaat my bankroll would be over 70k had I just stayed home and waited another year before making the move. Watching my bankroll stagnate due to expenses over the last year feels like I've been stuck in time and just wasted a year of my life. I guess I should've forced myself to play more, but I haven't been used to playing 'full time', so it's been an adjustment to say the least.

So why specifically do you think the CVCX results are weird? I simmed it in CVData, and the standard deviation per hour came out to 1100 per hour. Canned sim for Halves Full in CVCX says 1014. Of course it goes much higher if you change the min. to $25 which I`m assuming you play sometimes. Pretty sure I got all the specs dead on, because when you asked for someone to sim something else for you in another thread I started to do it. Then I ditched it because I re-read your post and realized you had CVCX but wanted to use another simulator because you said you weren`t sure if the wonging feature worked right.

As far as the stress goes, some form of working out may really help you unleash your fury when frustrated, and it would get your mind off of everything too. I`m sure you do plenty of walking, but as you may know it`s not nearly as effective it comes to lowering cortisol (the stress hormone), endorphin release, etc.

 

[ZenKinG]

So why specifically do you think the CVCX results are weird? I simmed it in CVData, and the standard deviation per hour came out to 1100 per hour. Canned sim for Halves Full in CVCX says 1014. Of course it goes much higher if you change the min. to $25 which I`m assuming you play sometimes. Pretty sure I got all the specs dead on, because when you asked for someone to sim something else for you in another thread I started to do it. Then I ditched it because I re-read your post and realized you had CVCX but wanted to use another simulator because you said you weren`t sure if the wonging feature worked right.

As far as the stress goes, some form of working out may really help you unleash your fury when frustrated, and it would get your mind off of everything too. I`m sure you do plenty of walking, but as you may know it`s not nearly as effective it comes to lowering cortisol (the stress hormone), endorphin release, etc.

Appreciate it. Thanks for the help

 

[JohnCrover]

Appreciate it. Thanks for the help

You might want to start drinking alcohol and smoking cigarettes. They help take the edge off. A little bit of Punto-Banco never killed anyone either.
I would suggest you get an adorable little furry friend but I fear for the safety of said furry friend.

 

[SplitFaceDisaster]

Appreciate it. Thanks for the help

No problem.

 

[Dummy]

Of course, believe it or not, I NEVER tilt at the tables and always bet according to plan and lately never even play a negative count. I guess all the stress ever since I moved here has got me going a bit crazy. So many thoughts just going into my head.

This statement is key. You have to find a level you are comfortable with the swings or get used to the swings. The more bigger advantage bets you make the more severe the swings. You feel things seem rigged because you are not comfortable with the way swings run for your wonging style and bet size. Rather than worrying about getting EV up while increasing short term volatility. Figure out what kind of swings your mind can handle or find a way to get used to the swings you get with the style of play you would like to use. A big problem with Americans is they never know when enough is enough. Just how much EV do you need to be able to draw from your BR to pay for your life's expenses? You can lower EV and swings by altering the way you play and bet. You don't have to choose to maximize EV at the expense of steady BR growth. You can choose to maximize steady BR growth while still getting the EV you need to live. True risk averse indexes increase EV if you bet higher. But if your goal is increased certainty of BR growth you can wait even longer to double (use an even higher index). Many players are familiar with heat averse indexes for splitting TT or taking insurance etc. The ones that use them notice how much better they do when they employ the index. They notice the affect on much more steady BR growth.

Cherry picking weaker doubles to double less frequently by using a higher index can be a very effective tool for making BR growth more steady without costing much EV. I like to consider card eating more with the splits but the same concept applies. Surrendering slightly minus EV surrenders that will contribute a lot to short term volatility is a great tool for steadying BR growth at very little cost to EV. This particularly applies to splits that have a surrender index since they are so infrequent. You should consider how the surrender indexes relates to the double index when considering this. These are things that someone with a high EV in dollars has the money to spend on more certain BR growth. If your EV is more on the endemic side when compared to what you need you might want to be very stingy about giving up EV for any reason. Tools such as wonging, bet ramps, indexes, side counts etc can be used to shape your results to something you are more comfortable with yet still has more than high enough EV for what you need. Living off your BR makes steady BR growth a very important consideration since you will be drawing from your BR at regular intervals. I suggest using 3 month living expenses withdraws for stronger players and longer intervals for players that have less reliable returns on their investment. From a BJ perspective the equation should be thought of in rounds played but from a bill paying perspective it must be thought of in actual time. I don't know what you do or what your results are like, or what you would like to do and how you would like to have results run, and I don't care. I am just pointing out that EV maximizing play might not be the best for your mental makeup. If you have the EV to give up and understand how and where to give it up in order to have much more steady BR growth you should look into the possibility. I hope you find this post helpful to work the your issues with through results you must endure with the way you play.

 

[ZenKinG]

This statement is key. You have to find a level you are comfortable with the swings or get used to the swings. The more bigger advantage bets you make the more severe the swings. You feel things seem rigged because you are not comfortable with the way swings run for your wonging style and bet size. Rather than worrying about getting EV up while increasing short term volatility. Figure out what kind of swings your mind can handle or find a way to get used to the swings you get with the style of play you would like to use. A big problem with Americans is they never know when enough is enough. Just how much EV do you need to be able to draw from your BR to pay for your life's expenses? You can lower EV and swings by altering the way you play and bet. You don't have to choose to maximize EV at the expense of steady BR growth. You can choose to maximize steady BR growth while still getting the EV you need to live. True risk averse indexes increase EV if you bet higher. But if your goal is increased certainty of BR growth you can wait even longer to double (use an even higher index). Many players are familiar with heat averse indices for splitting TT or taking insurance etc. The ones that use them notice how much better they do when they employ the index. They notice the affect on much more steady BR growth.

Cherry picking weaker doubles to double less frequently by using a higher index can be a very effective tool for making BR growth more steady without costing much EV. I like to consider card eating more with the splits but the same concept applies. Surrendering slightly minus EV surrenders that will contribute a lot to short term volatility is a great tool for steadying BR growth at very little cost to EV. This particularly applies to splits that have a surrender index since they are so infrequent. You should consider how the surrender indexes relates to the double index when considering this. These are things that someone with a high EV in dollars has the money to spend on more certain BR growth. If your EV is more on the endemic side when compared to what you need you might want to be very stingy about giving up EV for any reason. Tools such as wonging, bet ramps, indexes, side counts etc can be used to shape your results to something you are more comfortable with yet still has more than high enough EV for what you need. Living off your BR makes steady BR growth a very important consideration since you will be drawing from your BR at regular intervals. I suggest using 3 month living expenses withdraws for stronger players and longer intervals for players that have less reliable returns on their investment. From a BJ perspective the equation should be thought of in rounds played but from a bill paying perspective it must be thought of in actual time. I don't know what you do or what your results are like, or what you would like to do and how you would like to have results run, and I don't care. I am just pointing out that EV maximizing play might not be the best for your mental makeup. If you have the EV to give up and understand how and where to give it up in order to have much more steady BR growth you should loo into the possibility. I hope you find this post helpful to work the your issues with the results you must endure with the way you play.

Although Im already aware of this concept and the idea of risk averse indices, I do appreciate the thought and time you took into writing your posts.

Thanks.

 

[mcallister3200]

You know what a champ does ZK? It takes a licking and keeps on ticking. Champs are champs because they have a chin to stand in there and keep punching...

Just keep putting the hours in and stop over analyzing every detail, don’t sweat any single day..
Lol. That was so f’ing corny...but for real stop being so paranoid and chill out man.

 

[ZenKinG]

Ive officially had it. Once again every shoe at Planet Hollywood goes over +2 and I get killed. These rigged ass ASMs or missing 10s and Aces are causing this. Every fucking shoe hits +2 or higher and I get killed. Planet Hollywood go fuck yourself. Never again. Im so glad money means that much to you. Desperate high end executives programming the ASMs behind the scenes clumping the shit out of the shoe along with your preshuffled cards. fuck off. Rigged ass mob ridden town.

Once again this is NOT about losing or losing in positive counts. I know the variance and the math of this game and how it works, you will get your ass kicked, but ALWAYS LOSING at the SAME fucking places and then seeing the ridiculous card distribution that Im witnessing every shoe. I cant take it anymore. This is why im the best player out there. Even me getting cheated I still cant be beat, its honestly unbelievably impressive, really is.

 

[KewlJ]

Ive officially had it. Once again every shoe at Planet Hollywood....

So why are you STILL playing Planet Hollywood then? (I believe I asked this months ago). Whether they are cheating or not is completely irrelevant at this point. If you are uncomfortable playing there because you think they are or for any other reason....DON'T PLAY THERE! The benefit of Las Vegas is quantity. To keep going back to the same store that you believe is cheating is the definition of insanity.....literally.

 

[DSchles]

So why are you STILL playing Planet Hollywood then? (I believe I asked this months ago). Whether they are cheating or not is completely irrelevant at this point. If you are uncomfortable playing there because you think they are or for any other reason....DON'T PLAY THERE! The benefit of Las Vegas is quantity. To keep going back to the same store that you believe is cheating is the definition of insanity.....literally.

Einstein's definition of insanity: Doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result each time!

Don

 

[bjo32]

This statement is key. You have to find a level you are comfortable with the swings or get used to the swings. The more bigger advantage bets you make the more severe the swings. You feel things seem rigged because you are not comfortable with the way swings run for your wonging style and bet size. Rather than worrying about getting EV up while increasing short term volatility. Figure out what kind of swings your mind can handle or find a way to get used to the swings you get with the style of play you would like to use. A big problem with Americans is they never know when enough is enough. Just how much EV do you need to be able to draw from your BR to pay for your life's expenses? You can lower EV and swings by altering the way you play and bet. You don't have to choose to maximize EV at the expense of steady BR growth. You can choose to maximize steady BR growth while still getting the EV you need to live. True risk averse indexes increase EV if you bet higher. But if your goal is increased certainty of BR growth you can wait even longer to double (use an even higher index). Many players are familiar with heat averse indexes for splitting TT or taking insurance etc. The ones that use them notice how much better they do when they employ the index. They notice the affect on much more steady BR growth.

Cherry picking weaker doubles to double less frequently by using a higher index can be a very effective tool for making BR growth more steady without costing much EV. I like to consider card eating more with the splits but the same concept applies. Surrendering slightly minus EV surrenders that will contribute a lot to short term volatility is a great tool for steadying BR growth at very little cost to EV. This particularly applies to splits that have a surrender index since they are so infrequent. You should consider how the surrender indexes relates to the double index when considering this. These are things that someone with a high EV in dollars has the money to spend on more certain BR growth. If your EV is more on the endemic side when compared to what you need you might want to be very stingy about giving up EV for any reason. Tools such as wonging, bet ramps, indexes, side counts etc can be used to shape your results to something you are more comfortable with yet still has more than high enough EV for what you need. Living off your BR makes steady BR growth a very important consideration since you will be drawing from your BR at regular intervals. I suggest using 3 month living expenses withdraws for stronger players and longer intervals for players that have less reliable returns on their investment. From a BJ perspective the equation should be thought of in rounds played but from a bill paying perspective it must be thought of in actual time. I don't know what you do or what your results are like, or what you would like to do and how you would like to have results run, and I don't care. I am just pointing out that EV maximizing play might not be the best for your mental makeup. If you have the EV to give up and understand how and where to give it up in order to have much more steady BR growth you should look into the possibility. I hope you find this post helpful to work the your issues with through results you must endure with the way you play.

I thought this was an excellent post. You say you can increase bankroll growth by going with higher index numbers before doubling. How much higher? Are you only increasing the index number by one or two? Do you do this will all doubles? You say cherry pick the doubles where you do this? Does this mean you don’t do this with all doubles? Any clarification here would help. Thanks!