luck

[Automatic Monkey]

La Noche de Los Invertidos!

I had an extremely lucky incident in a casino a few years back. I was playing blackjack with my team this night and was playing the BP role. As I wandered about waiting for call ins I kept noticing this stunningly hot girl playing roulette. Sometimes I would stand by her as if I was interested in the game as I waited for a spotters call in. We made small talk a bit, but I was never around long enough for much else.

Anyway my session of blackjack ends and I meet up with my team to go over stats and money and set up for a new session the next day. After this I decide to go back to the casino where the girl was to see if she was still there. I brought just $400 of my own money to play at the table she was at and hope to meet her. She was still there when I got back there. I got 4 black chips and just bet the outside $100 at at time while striking up a conversation with her. Not even really paying too much attention to the money, I started winning. I would occasionally put down a 2 or $300 bet as my winnings grew, but I really was more involved with chatting up this girl then the game. Well after about a little more than an hour I had won $8000. With that I left the casino with the nice win, and more importantly the hot girl as well. That was pure luck at its best, and yes I'll take it.

To be noted, this was before my current relationsip situation that I'm in now. No need for any misconceptions by the future Mrs. Bojack if she happens to read this.

I've seen a lot of she-males playing roulette you know. Chix with dix.

Normally I will fraternize with she-males, hookers, stoners and similar losers I meet in the casino just to convince the pit that I'm an idiot.

 

[ricopuno]

BOJACK wrote:

To be noted, this was before my current relationsip situation that I'm in now. No need for any misconceptions by the future Mrs. Bojack if she happens to read this.

Are you sure? Don't worry we won't tell:grin: tell us more about the hot chick!:devil::devil:

 

[sagefr0g]

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bojack1
I had an extremely lucky incident in a casino a few years back. I was playing blackjack with my team this night and was playing the BP role. As I wandered about waiting for call ins I kept noticing this stunningly hot girl playing roulette. Sometimes I would stand by her as if I was interested in the game as I waited for a spotters call in. We made small talk a bit, but I was never around long enough for much else.

Anyway my session of blackjack ends and I meet up with my team to go over stats and money and set up for a new session the next day. After this I decide to go back to the casino where the girl was to see if she was still there. I brought just $400 of my own money to play at the table she was at and hope to meet her. She was still there when I got back there. I got 4 black chips and just bet the outside $100 at at time while striking up a conversation with her. Not even really paying too much attention to the money, I started winning. I would occasionally put down a 2 or $300 bet as my winnings grew, but I really was more involved with chatting up this girl then the game. Well after about a little more than an hour I had won $8000. With that I left the casino with the nice win, and more importantly the hot girl as well. That was pure luck at its best, and yes I'll take it.

To be noted, this was before my current relationsip situation that I'm in now. No need for any misconceptions by the future Mrs. Bojack if she happens to read this.

I've seen a lot of she-males playing roulette you know. Chix with dix.

Normally I will fraternize with she-males, hookers, stoners and similar losers I meet in the casino just to convince the pit that I'm an idiot.

so here we have a couple of instances of luck in the perhaps paradoxical extremes that it can appear. one a fortunate example and the other perhaps not so fortunate. but both cases were taken advantage of. waste not want not. lol
come to think of it bojack's actions might have had an additonal bonus of some camoflauge just as automonk's.
when i played for a couple of years maybe on average two days a week or so on the seaescape in Florida i made it a point to get to know the regulars who were mainly basic strategy players. some of them had been sailing the seaescape for up to six years or so. the idea being to blend in with them and maybe making it more difficult for the pit to think of maybe giving me the tap.

 

[sagefr0g]

BOJACK wrote:
To be noted, this was before my current relationsip situation that I'm in now. No need for any misconceptions by the future Mrs. Bojack if she happens to read this.

Are you sure? Don't worry we won't tell:grin: tell us more about the hot chick!:devil::devil:

oh so you wanna know about what the really luck stuff is ehh. the real voodoo stuff lmao.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bad_luck
so but who was that way back when maybe before we had statistics and probability? sort of got the ball rollin on all that stuff. was he in jail or something? lol had a lot of time on his hands and got to flippin coins and stuff and thinking about ways to maybe beat gambling? maybe the jail part is urban legand? guess he never did figure out how to beat a gamble, i dunno?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blaise_Pascal
Pascal's development of probability theory was his most influential contribution to mathematics. Originally applied to gambling, today it is extremely important in economics, especially in actuarial science. John Ross writes, "Probability theory and the discoveries following it changed the way we regard uncertainty, risk, decision-making, and an individual's and society's ability to influence the course of future events."
probably i think Taleb in the Black Swan would disagree about economics, maybe not actuarial science but would agree for the gambling scenerio.

 

[sagefr0g]

I had an extremely lucky incident in a casino a few years back. ....

which brings up a question. like where i'm pretty sure your a professional AP with a team and all. so i'm just wondering like say your team sets out for a session. maybe early on you guys realize that you've just had a ridiculous run of luck. some really big haul way more than your normal haul for a similar session and games and all. so the question is what would you guys do? maybe everyone gets a little vacation from playing and celebrate what ever or would you just play on till your what ever plan of stopping was?

 

[Bojack1]

which brings up a question. like where i'm pretty sure your a professional AP with a team and all. so i'm just wondering like say your team sets out for a session. maybe early on you guys realize that you've just had a ridiculous run of luck. some really big haul way more than your normal hall for a similar session and games and all. so the question is what would you guys do? maybe everyone gets a little vacation from playing and celebrate what ever or would you just play on till your what ever plan of stopping was?

All sessions have a predetermined time limit based on whats appropriate for the venue being played. However circumstances that arise during actual play may change this. A lucky run may shorten the time of session, but not due to any thoughts of we are way ahead lets stop now. Its a matter of what tolerance does the casino have for such wins. It can be a judgement call. If the wins bring too much attention then the session will be cut short. Just as if a session is bringing very little action or play, it can be extended. As far as celebrating a big win, not really. Don't get me wrong, it will make us happy, but no more so than the happiness of getting some overtime pay in your paycheck. Getting overly emotional for wins can be just as damaging as doing so over losses. Besides a big win doesn't always mean we're getting paid this trip, it depends on where the bank goal is at.

For multi day trips we do get time off to do what we want, so cutting loose will happen from time to time. But as in my story told earlier, it usually is due to something separate from the teams job.

 

[sagefr0g]

... As far as celebrating a big win, not really. Don't get me wrong, it will make us happy, but no more so than the happiness of getting some overtime pay in your paycheck. Getting overly emotional for wins can be just as damaging as doing so over losses. ...

lol that's what i figured. maybe another question. please.
maybe you read this:
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showpost.php?p=95048&postcount=10
i really kind of believe that stuff.
i think probably those losing sessions your body and and at least part of the mind feel the pain to make a long story short. how does a pro deal with that? i mean i know that intellectualy you know the score but how do you convince the rest of your psyche and physical emotional self to deal with it? do you ever overcome those negative emotions and negative thoughts?

 

[Bojack1]

lol that's what i figured. maybe another question. please.
maybe you read this:
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showpost.php?p=95048&postcount=10
i really kind of believe that stuff.
i think probably those losing sessions your body and and at least part of the mind feel the pain to make a long story short. how does a pro deal with that? i mean i know that intellectualy you know the score but how do you convince the rest of your psyche and physical emotional self to deal with it? do you ever overcome those negative emotions and negative thoughts?

It comes with having the mindset that failure is part of the equation. When one becomes truly serious about being an AP then preparation for the game is more a sense of training instead of just practice. Very few that I have met that play this game get that. Take a baseball player for example. If a batter fails 70% of the time over the course of his career he is considered highly successful and probably a hall of famer. So over the course of his career the failures far outweigh the success and if that were to weigh too heavily on the brain then it is highly unlikely that such a player would achieve even the 30% success rate. In turn making a far less player than could've been had the emotions not overtaken the physical.

Its the same with AP's. Knowing what will happen statistically and understanding it can be very different things. Also having true confidence in what you are doing is also a boost to the physcological aspect of your playing. Knowing in your heart that when you play you are most definitely doing all it takes to play a winning game, then the losses that still result are ingrained as part of the built in expected mindset.

These reasons are why there are few lifetime .300 hitters in baseball and why there are few successful AP's. Anybody can count cards, its not that hard. Very few can play a winning game regardless of what knowledge of the game they have stuffed in their brain. I am no robot, as a matter of fact I am a very passionate and emotional person, away from the blackjack table.

Part of being a professional at anything is just that, being professional. A good doctor is not going to hit on every woman needed to undress in front of him while he performs his job. I can't totally understand how they do it, a nice looking naked woman would sure make me want to deviate from protocol. But then again its what a doctor is trained to do. I'm sure it registers to a doctor what looks good or not, but it makes no difference in doing the job. This is similar to playing blackjack in a professional manner. Many might not understand how losses or even wins are pushed aside as just part of the equation, but to be good thats how it has to be. Wins and losses are almost inconsequential to preparedness and to playing a statistically good game. When its all said and done the latter will take care of whats needed, getting paid.

 

[blackjack avenger]

The Nature of the Beast, The Path We Chose

If ahead and you hit some negative flux you can still be ahead.

If behind, one can always play more.

One is rarely at an all time high.

Losses are part of playing.

I think no investment is always positive.

There is no escaping losses.

 

[sagefr0g]

If ahead and you hit some negative flux you can still be ahead.

if behind and you hit some positive flux you can still be behind.

If behind, one can always play more.

if ahead, one can always play less.

One is rarely at an all time high.

one is rarely at an all time low. (i hope that's right)

Losses are part of playing.

wins are part of playing. (i hope that's right too)

I think no investment is always positive.

i think no investiment is always negative

There is no escaping losses.

there is no escaping wins.
:joker::whip:

 

[blackjack avenger]

What Just Happened

You made me sound like the pessimist and you the optimist.:joker::whip:

 

[sagefr0g]

You made me sound like the pessimist and you the optimist.:joker::whip:

that's because in my pessimism i have found optimism!
from mind numbing longterm certainty to the allure of the unknown in the here and now. from crushing yet honorable responsibility for the future to the freedom to enjoy the fruits of enduring that responsibility. i'm retired dude.
optimism when it comes to blackjack thats something only a gamblin ploppy with a clue like me can have. a genuine AP is really only interested in the the dull accumulation of EV. when you play blackjack and get a snapper but only have a small bet out your bored almost to the point of tears. that's because you know the good cards are being eaten up and the count is going south. in your mind your thinkin come on lets get with it lets get them babies out of the way so we can get to the juice. your happy to get the snapper but really no big deal. a ploppy will do ten somersault back flips and sing glory halleluya if they get a snapper forgetting that they just lost ten hands in a row.:joker:
when a ploppy talks with a dealer or looks the pit boss in the the eye there is no uneasy subterfuge but instead a fun loving innocence. AP talkin to dealer or eye to eye with the pit is more like a lion and a crocodile facing off over maybe some thrashing, flailing unfortunate baby water buffalo that's somebodys next meal. so yeah a ploppy might be the baby water buffalo in the pit's eye and hardly even know it. thing about me (at this point no brag just the facts) is i'm willing to be a baby water buffalo but at the same time at some point i'm gonna take out a big ass sledge hammer and whack that crocodile or that lion right in the head with it. :laugh:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LU8DDYz68kM
AP's allude to investing and the way they play blackjack. really if you study up on it investing in the real world has way more of a gamble in it than the wager an AP makes.

 

[blackjack avenger]

I Just Play Cards

I think in your last line I have said something to that affect?

Real camoflauge is probably not camoflauge.
Uh Oh, getting eastern philosophical again.

I look at people.
I don't not look at the cards.

I like to see if other people win, lose or get the good double card. I am not studying the color of the jack's eyes.

I like winning small and big bets.
Civilians also show more interest in big bets vs small ones.

I play and bet big when I think I am going to win, a civilian does the same thing.

I have seen many a civilain out think me. :joker::whip:

 

[sagefr0g]

I think in your last line I have said something to that affect?

i think probably you did.
just i think it's a pretty shakey idea to compare AP play to investing in the real world when investing in the real world is probably shakier (or at least more uncertain usually more unpredictable from one day to the next) than making a wager as an AP. lmao

Real camoflauge is probably not camoflauge.
Uh Oh, getting eastern philosophical again.

I look at people.
I don't not look at the cards.

I like to see if other people win, lose or get the good double card. I am not studying the color of the jack's eyes.

I like winning small and big bets.
Civilians also show more interest in big bets vs small ones.

I play and bet big when I think I am going to win, a civilian does the same thing.

I have seen many a civilain out think me. :joker::whip:

yah, maybe the point i'm trying to make is a bit more subtle.
goes to the mind of an AP and the mind of a ploppy and the mind of a recreational AP. me i don't think i ever was a pure ploppy cause i'd never played blackjack until i'd studied up on the AP stuff. probably maybe i was worse than a ploppy cause i don't think i often enough had a good handle on what it was i was supposed to be trying to do. just my guess.
so but anyway i'm thinkin all three types have thier similarities like you allude to above. it's maybe a more of a matter of attitude i'm getting at. like bojack is pretty darn serious and me i guess i am too but in a differant way. like bojack making a living, me no big deal having some fun and hoping to make a little chump change. then maybe a ploppy has a pure gambling mentality. i just know when i was trying to be a bojack, or an avenger when i looked the pit in the eye it was a whole differant mental mind set than when i do in my current mix of ploppy/AP recreational approach. before when i was in my mental mind an AP when i looked the pit in the eye it was like in my mind through my eyes is i see you but you don't see me or at least i was hoping they didn't. now it's more like i see you and you see me and i probably am no threat but if you hurt me i'm gonna try and hurt you back sort of thing. all the while both the pit and i know that the pit is gonna try and hurt me. and it's nothin out of the normal for them to know just about everybody wants to hurt them lmao. so if i take a gamble and try for some luck it's what they want me to do but if i'm not lucky i'm gonna do what they don't want me to do. lol.
that's maybe the diff. i doubt the vengeful one is ever that much interested in luck. he's on that EV thing is where it's at. :cool2::whip:
sometime when your in some joint go and look at the roulette tables and watch the gamblers. try and imagine their mental mind set and then think about yours. i'm some where inbetween i think. but here is what i like about it is that i can partake in the roulette players sense of fun, frivolity and innocence (with respect to intentions) where as the AP has in comparison a much duller existance experientaly.

 

[blackjack avenger]

Grind Those Teeth to Win, Makes All the Difference

Civilian, semi pro, pro do not have to be so far apart in casino demeanor/attitude.

Mark Twain said take what you like and make a career of it?

I have always liked games and math.

I enjoy my casino time, lots of people to see and bright lights, the action is fun, the thrill of the betting.

Do i sound like a civilian? If I smile does that mean my skills are less?:joker::whip:

whistle while you work:joker::whip:

 

[sagefr0g]

Civilian, semi pro, pro do not have to be so far apart in casino demeanor/attitude.

Mark Twain said take what you like and make a career of it?

I have always liked games and math.

I enjoy my casino time, lots of people to see and bright lights, the action is fun, the thrill of the betting.

Do i sound like a civilian? If I smile does that mean my skills are less?:joker::whip:

whistle while you work:joker::whip:

hats off to you. you da man! :1st:
and i really don't know how you do it. i mean deal with the tedium. and it's really no mean trick pulling the AP stuff off either. but it's great you and so many others can enjoy it all. i gotta say it was pretty ok for me before that big ole downswing hit.
me my opinion is there is some luck and some gamble involved in the AP stick.
and others agree or disagree. me i just think cause the tc's and advantage stuff fit's the gausian curve so well that most all the variations of luck blend together and like it's said the ev rules over hands played over time as long as that ROR doesn't get you.
lol just the spectre of ROR is enough to scare me much less the up and down white knuckle roller coaster ride with a random zig zag ever upwards. :yikes:
i think it was Elliot Jacobson (is he the mayor?) who came on here one time (on this site) and said he didn't really like games. man that blew my mind when he said that! i'm thinking how can he say that, he's played all this blackjack and written this book and all this stuff and he even creates games.
and i think where i read how his wife is tolerant of his play or what ever and understands when he goes off to play how it's what he wants to do. (think that was in some magazine or news article when he got 86'd from some indian joint). so but i guess i maybe now understand where he was comming from. games really can be incredibly boring. i guess too once you master something after a long struggle to achieve mastery that some of the thrill might disapate. i think Einstein said that chess was the game whose chains bind or something like that. what ever that means. i think though i can relate to those sentiments a bit on a much, much lower level.
so i guess my instospection has some how led me to an interest in luck. heck i'm i guess a bit superstitious maybe. karma is one of them and virtue of innocence in light of wisdom maybe. got this idea it's related to luck. not that the cards know or have the foggiest-- i mean fuzziest.

 

[blackjack avenger]

Stop and Smell the Roses

2 players
2 different worlds

player 1
crushed by losses
plays in 1 or 2 rundown casinos
only interested in dollars won
player dresses down, because other patrons are
if travels arrives rushed/exhausted and leaves even more so
overbets so every hand is stressful
doesn't talk or notice anyone because he thinks it slows him down


player 2
accepts inevitable losses as part of game, it's even camoflauge
plays in several nice casinos
more a student of the game, $ are nice
plays in a nice place and dresses/acts accordingly
sound rest = sound mind
underbets so few hands are stressful
friendly and humerous banter sometimes with other players and dealer; is generally liked, uses fun/social camo.

Probably more to the point. Some people are more happy:devil::whip::joker::: then others.:cry:


One can also have fun with the James Bond/Robin Hood nature of being an AP. I take from the rich/evil casino and give to the poor, that being me :joker::whip:

 

[sagefr0g]

2 players
2 different worlds

player 1
crushed by losses
plays in 1 or 2 rundown casinos
only interested in dollars won
player dresses down, because other patrons are
if travels arrives rushed/exhausted and leaves even more so
overbets so every hand is stressful
doesn't talk or notice anyone because he thinks it slows him down


player 2
accepts inevitable losses as part of game, it's even camoflauge
plays in several nice casinos
more a student of the game, $ are nice
plays in a nice place and dresses/acts accordingly
sound rest = sound mind
underbets so few hands are stressful
friendly and humerous banter sometimes with other players and dealer; is generally liked, uses fun/social camo.

i bolded the me ones. :joker::whip:
but i can't dress nice cause i gotta wear my lucky shirt and trousers lmao.
and i just bet within some predefined limits.

Probably more to the point. Some people are more happy:devil::whip::joker::: then others.:cry:

i'm tryin to get there, the happy part.

One can also have fun with the James Bond/Robin Hood nature of being an AP. I take from the rich/evil casino and give to the poor, that being me :joker::whip:

yah i used to try and play that stuff. problem was when i had to go to the potty and i'd be washin my hands afterwards and happen to catch a glimpse of moi in the mirror. that killed that illusion lmao.

 

[blackjack avenger]

Becoming Lucky in Luck

Ok,

How does one get lucky?

Some would say:
positive attitude
preparation
good Karma - wishing those around you well, maybe donating some wins to charity ( and no single mom's who dance on poles are not charity cases :joker::whip: )

One could flip a coin to help on close calls, though I can't think of any calls that are just coin flip, there are other considerations.

 

[sagefr0g]

today i might say one thing and tomorrow another

Ok,

How does one get lucky?

i wish i knew! i mean i really, really do wish i knew! serious as a heart attack on that issue. it's a subject that quickly results in hand waving by math nerd's and a subject that even for those who might have a genuine interest is quickly set aside. so one thing i'd say in my state of ignorance would be don't give up so easy. what ever luck is it comes not from what we know but from what we don't know. it's always a surprise either pleasant or not so. just my guess but we'll sooner be able to predict the weather a year in advance before we'll ever have a clue about luck if we ever do.
probably there are those who think they could tell us about luck. probably as phony as a three dollar bill too. the most serious thinker i've yet found on the issue of luck is Nassim Taleb author of The Black Swan. what's disconcerting about his book and the subject of luck with respect to casino's is his assesment that a casino might be one of the few phenomenon in the real world where luck is relatively meaningless. his position being that luck in a casino has been domesticated to the point where it behaves according to the gaussian bell curve unlike it's untammed cousin as it exists outside of casino walls. so i wrote him an e-mail (about three weeks ago). here is a copy of the e-mail: sent to: [email protected]
Dear Nassim,
do you think black swans may exist in ludic realms? probably not i guess. so the other question is might one relate black swans to the occurence of degrees of standard deviations in ludic realms? yeah i'm talkin casino's here.
very best regards,
sagefr0g
ps. enjoying your book Black Swan
no answer as of yet........
think i might send him another e-mail and invite him to write an essay (maybe title it Black Swans in a Casino a Second Look) here in the voodoo forum. :eyepatch:
so but anyway how does one get lucky?
i'm gonna say i dunno how but that it would be a good idea to even care in the first place and in the second place to maybe develope a way to know it when you see it and in the third place to have a clue as to what to do with it if you find it. and one thing about all that might be that luck what ever it is might mean differant things to differant people. so it would have to do with having a clue about one's own self.

Some would say:

positive attitude

uh huh and that's darn hard to have when your playing blackjack lmao.
but me i think when luck is happening playing blackjack is when i get to really feeling positive.
so maybe our feelings may be a sort of a luck geiger counter.
that can be dangerous though. we wouldn't want to be like the turkey that the farmer keeps so well fed and happy right up to the day before Thanksgiving.
so maybe observe that positive attitude from a skeptical perspective.

preparation

absolutely! having a clue about what the heck it is. maybe have some yard stick to measure it against. maybe being vigilant as to when it appears. maybe have some idea what the heck to do with it if you should happen to find it.
then maybe have a clue what to do should the opposite of good luck presents.

good Karma - wishing those around you well, maybe donating some wins to charity ( and no single mom's who dance on poles are not charity cases :joker::whip: )

absolutely! call me a superstitious fool. i just know there are a whole host of actions one can take that more often than not have strings attached the consequences of which are concurrent with that action. and our thoughts and beliefs aren't they often a precursor of our actions? the cards i know don't know or care how we play our hand or the game or if we donated to charity but we do. and AP theory shows us that what we do does matter so for sure we know we are a part of the equation even if the cards don't care.
maybe not but it seems a virtueous way to play to take your shot as best you can according to what you really know with really no more expectation than to see what the cards turn up to be. hold it in that moment for what it really is maybe a gamble with an advantage maybe not. then when those cards finish up the play you get to really see luck in action.

One could flip a coin to help on close calls, though I can't think of any calls that are just coin flip, there are other considerations.

that's what i do when i don't know what to do. or if i'm witness to two friends at odds over a decision that neither is going to submitt one way or the other. if actions called for flip a coin. it beats a spit in the hand followed by a slap. lmao.