Man, this "counting" stuff is hard.

[EasyRhino]

Did some really quick play today. Only about an hour. But I got really lucky. Not only did I win a few big hands, but I placed a big bet at the top of the shoe, and won like 8 hands in a row. Up about 46 units. Which sounds pretty good. Then when I translate that to $2300, it sounds really good.

As the second place, I only squeaked in about 15 minutes of play. Lost $50. And it was really tough to not try to hang in there and win that bet back.

Bankroll snapshot: $40,370.

Boring Introspective Navel-Gazing:

The bankroll snapshot is significant because it tops my previous all-time high bankroll by a couple hundred bucks. The previous bankroll peak was set on October 1st. So that would mark my personal "market correction" as lasting about 4.5 months. And while my surpassing of the previous peak was by a small amount (actually, I've earned more in interest over that period), I'm still going to chalk it down as an important moral victory.

(Also for the record, I know that a 4.5 month trough is chump change compared to some people's losses).

I did some thinking about this on the drive home. If I remember correctly, the three stages of self-destructive high-rolling gambling are Love, Greed, and Fear.

Early 07's very rapid bankroll inflation (due to online winnings and a few lucky trips) would count as Love. It was, I have to admit, a little bit narcotic. The bankroll was growing faster than I could even come to grips with bet spreads.

Greed would be the subsequent summer, where I thought to myself "Gee, why doesn't everyone do this?" as the bankroll was still on a fairly steady upward arc, and briefly, the casinos were working like my own personal ATM machine. And while I intellectually knew it was bogus, I was definitely enjoying the low volatility wins.

The Fear came in fall/winter, when I put together a string of sizeable losses. It gave me time to ponder my ultimate ruin. It wasn't fun at all, and this wasn't even money that I needed. I tried to imagine what it would be like for the schlub who was gambling his car payment to make his house payment... and I couldn't do it.

I guess that would be the part where many gamblers start steaming, lose their minds, overbet, and go bust.

But for me, a fourth stage kicked in. I don't know what to call it, but it's probably something every appropriately disciplined and appropriately bankrolled AP gets. I'll just call it "Time to Make the Donuts". I had basically lost all expectation of winning. I had no feeling of luck. I went numb to the results of individual hands. I felt no destiny. All I knew is that the numbers said I should have an advantage, and so I just kept pounding away at the numbers until they eventually worked themselves out. (This is also when I collected another backoff, so maybe I pounded a little too hard).

I think the Donuts stage is very important.

Anyway, it's late, and I have finish planning which joints in Vegas I want to get tossed from this weekend. I'm keeping my fingers crossed that this peak will last longer than a day, but at least I'll have the donuts.

 

[Kasi]

I'm keeping my fingers crossed that this peak will last longer than a day, but at least I'll have the donuts.

Glad you're doing so well. They say those all-time highs never last too long lol.

Hey I was going to ask you ( I think it was you lol if not....) about something you said fairly recently like if your bankroll was only what it is thru card-counting alone it might be like 40% or so less. Was that you? Maybe AM?

I was just wondering what you meant by that - like other AP techniques or other wins from maybe vid poker or whatever or coupons or internet additions kind of thing.

You don't have to address it at all if u don't want lol.

And good luck on your trip.

 

[EasyRhino]

your bankroll was only what it is thru card-counting alone it might be like 40% or so less.

Online. Bonus. Whoring. While mentioned several times in this ridiculous thread, I don't dwell on it because it's not a brick and mortar thing.

Over the last week, I actually lost about $2k doing some high variance bonuses online. (bit of a bummer) However, because I assign a very low cetrainty to any funds in a an online casino or ewallet, I don't "count" the money until I actually cash it out and it hits a real bank. Kind of a cash-basis accounting thing.

 

[Kasi]

Online. Bonus. Whoring. While mentioned several times in this ridiculous thread, I don't dwell on it because it's not a brick and mortar thing..

Thanks - I think I get it now - you've just added to overall roll from other sources allowing you to bet bigger compared to having same overall roll that you started with when you counted but lost 40% of thru card-counting.

Even I didn't understand that lol - I just meant I hoped your card-counting losses all by itself hasn't lost 40% of original roll.

And, even then, not that big of a deal lol. It happens.

But, yeah, I understand that on-line stuff. I don't even call it gambling lol.

 

[EasyRhino]

Well, I got the answer for how long my bankroll peak would last: about 30 hours.

Started my Vegas trip by beginning my drive entirely too late on Friday night. Didn't arrive in town until the wee hours of the morning. Figuring that I might as well immediately max out my opportunities to get 86'd, I went directly to El Cortez. Now, let me tell you, The Cortez at 4:00am is an incredibly depressing place. Nearly deserted, quiet, glum gamblers, and the dealers at my table weren't that hot on their English, let alone personality. I sit down, pretty fried from the commute, and start playing the singe deck game, which I haven't played in like a year. I get a pit boss hawking my play from the first bet (admittedly, not much else going on for him to hawk). Plus, I'm trying to remember how to play SD, and I'm also trying to track the number of hands I'm dealt while playing one spot vs. two to evaluate penetration. After about 30-45 minutes, I realized that I was simply not up to it, mentally or emotionally, and bailed.

Most of the rest of the trip was split between gambling and general entertainment (I was visting with the folks, so I had to entertain them and work as taxi service). The remainder of the gambling was done at various Strip hotels (by my standards, it was a fairly hoity-toity trip). Most gambling was done early in the day, before crowds and table minimums got out of hand. I alternated between short (<45 min) hit and run sessions, playing unrated and with no cover at all, and longer (multi-hour) sessions, playing rated and going for the comps. In these comp-hungry sessions, I played a little more conservatively, and did a "polite" amount of table-hopping, in an attempt to stay mobile but not unduly aggravate the floormen.

Results-wise, I started out the trip with a fairly large loss (nearly $3k). Continued playing, strung together a few modest wins, and was actually slightly ahead for the trip, until my very last session, it lasted for a few hours, since I was waiting for my folks to get out of their timeshare presentation. Basically, the wheels just came off my game. I managed to lose about $4000, quickly. Notable in this losing streak was a shoe where the count get very high fairly early, and then it got "stuck' at that high level for most of the rest of the shoe, so I ended up being exposed with max bets during a very unluckly There were plenty of other places where I lost though. I tried every AP (and ploppy) trick in the book, table-hopping, wonging out, backcounting, spreading to two hands in positive counts, spreading to multiple hands in negative counts (when heads up), spreading to two hands for no particular reason... I just couldn't dodge the losses. My parents (ploppies) assumed that I had been doing something wrong, and didn't really believe my protestations to the contrary.

Net result for the trip, a loss of about $3300. This was somewhat disappointing, since I was almost able to walk away from the trip a winner if my departure had been earlier. However, on the bright side, I've lost larger amounts and lived. And, I didn't have to break into the "reserve money" which I had brought along (since I was concerned about the possibility of busting out on the trip), so that was a moral victory.

From a technical side, I should have done some advance counting practice on shoe games, since I had been playing so much doubledeck recently. My brain was slower in dealing with the really large +/- running counts that can develop in a shoe.

Also, I found myself at a Harrah's property where I had the choice of a mediocre shoe game or a doubledeck game with no double after split. I thought long and hard about it, and ended up skipping on the DD game because I didn't know the differences in basic strategy. And even though it didn't seem like it would make a big difference, I went ahead with the known quantity. (after looking up the differences, it's easier than I thought).

What's the deal with the doubledeck at Mirage and Treasure Island? I've played "regular" pitch doubledeck games (face-down), and face-up shoe games (El Cortez), and face-down shoe games (local Indian casinos, Mandalay Bay). But Mirage/TI's game was handheld, and instead of pitching the cards, the dealer places them face-up on the table for the player. I didn't even consciously realize what was happening for a couple of shoes, but it just felt weird.

Incidentally, I have a suspicion that card counters are a running gag to Mirage's graveyard shift (4-12). One dealer commented about how the face-up dealing made the game easier to count cards on. Another (I think) gave me an oblique warning about how the hotel has tossed APs. Of course, such comments don't bode well for my camoflauge ability.

Also weird was looking for TI's doubledeck game, and discovering that the reason I couldn't find it was because it was tucked away in the "High Roller Room", with a $50 minimum. Despite being in an off time, an affordable game in a Vegas Strip high limit room? Surreal.

And finally, in one pit, I thought, out of the corner of my eye, that a new employee was brought into the pit to observe my play. I paranoidly began devising ways to lay on some heavy cover. Then I realized that he was just watching the basketball game. Oops.

Highlights of the trip:
- Seeing a prostitute getting escorted out of a nice casino at 10am.
- The look of shock from a basic strategy player when my doubling a 10v10 in a high count turned into a win.
- The disappointment in a friendly dealer's face during a losing stretch (in a high count), when I was making basic strategy errors and negatively progressing my bets.
- Cocktail waitresses who began speculatively bringing me additional drinks.
- Hearing juicy gossip about one of the Wynn's new labor beefs from the floor and dealers.
- Getting a comp for two at a really nice restaurants on the Strip. It wasn't as good as a comp for all three of us, but I thought it was still pretty respectable.
- One shoe of a doubledeck game in which I didn't lose a single hand (I pushed one hand).
- Playing next to a young guy who worked at a hedge fund and was betting multiple blacks. Nice guy, only a mediocre blackjack player. While bemoaning his lack of luck, I said "Hey, at least it's less than you're losing at work!" which set him into a frenzy of complaining about the billions that his fund has lost. Both intersting AND amusing.
- Figuring out the fast way and slow way to get to the hotel from McCarran.
- No heat (with the obvious exception of El Cortez)

Lowlights:
- "Missing" about $500. I was working to fairly carefully track my buyins and cashouts per session (for tax purposes), and I ended up with a deficit at one table. So I had bought in, and lost, but didn't have a record of it. From an accounting standpoint, this was very distressing.
- Being chided (obliquely) about card counting by a Mirage dealer.
- Not even making it to Planet Ho's lingerie pit.
- Too much Red Bull.
- No heat (I'd rather have obvious heat from a floorman rather than the invisibile surveillance sword of damocles hanging over my head).

Bankroll snapshot: Almost $37,000.

 

[Kasi]

What's the deal with the doubledeck at Mirage and Treasure Island?

Always enjoy your updates lol. Maybe not always fully understand them lol but definitely enjoy them.

Anyway, that is weird with the face-up DD. Maybe so cards can't be marked (You can't touch them right?).? Or maybe it's a new trend? - more hands per hour, people can't tuck busted cards etc.?

Any chance at all he is holding 2 decks in his hand from a multi-deck shoe trying to fool people into believing it's DD? Just a thought - heard of it but never seen it.

Get it back next time!

 

[EasyRhino]

Anyway, that is weird with the face-up DD. Maybe so cards can't be marked (You can't touch them right?).? Or maybe it's a new trend? - more hands per hour, people can't tuck busted cards etc.?

Right, no touching, much like a shoe game. I didn't play enough to see how often they change the cards. The actual dealing motion seems slightly awkward, slower than pitch, but I suppose that things are sped up since the dealer doesn't have to reveal down cards any more.

Any chance at all he is holding 2 decks in his hand from a multi-deck shoe trying to fool people into believing it's DD? Just a thought - heard of it but never seen it.

Nope. Saw that at Bill's gamblin' hall, though. I heard a call of "checks play" while I was walking by and checked out the table. Started counting along to see if the guy was counting. He made a couple of bad plays, then I saw the dealer grab two decks out of a multi deck hopper. Once I figured out what was going on, I was pretty sure he wasn't card counting.

 

[jack.jackson]

Results-wise, I started out the trip with a fairly large loss (nearly $3k). Continued playing, strung together a few modest wins, and was actually slightly ahead for the trip, until my very last session, it lasted for a few hours, since I was waiting for my folks to get out of their timeshare presentation. Basically, the wheels just came off my game. I managed to lose about $4000, quickly

Nice report!
Wow what a roller coatser ride.

The dollar amount, in the size of your wins and losses dont seem to be congruent with your BR. Did you see more than your usual share of high counts? Anyway, watchin 10% of my BR disappear, "rather quckly" would have me a little on the catious side. But Im sure you know what your doin, you've been successful thus, far.

 

[EasyRhino]

Did you see more than your usual share of high counts?

During the Session De La Muerta, I'd say yes, there were more high counts than usual, considering it was shoe games. Wonging into the very high count that got "stuck" was especially expensive, costing around $2k by itself. The losses can add up pretty quick. Put down two bets of $200. Dealer shows an Ace, take insurance, not there, so lose $200. Then lose both hands. That's $600 right there, with no doubling/splitting.

I also won about $1100 in 40 minutes elsewhere. That's almost the same speed as I was losing money during the worst session, but it was also one I had to cut short.

 

[sagefr0g]

just wondering Easy how with all the variety of games you play that you keep up with all the basic strategy differences. or do you use a couple of generic basic strategies, you know one size fits all sort of thing.....

 

[EasyRhino]

H17 vs S17 isn't a big deal, the primarily is mainly vs an Ace showing, and even thew "wrong" play from H17 is usually "right" play on S17 if the count is high enough. The 2/6/8 deck differences are also trivial.

What threw me was NDAS (single deck or a crappy doubledeck game). To the point where it made me avoid one game. It's the sort of thing that I could easily switch to, but it would have required some preperatory practice.

 

[sagefr0g]

H17 vs S17 isn't a big deal, the primarily is mainly vs an Ace showing, and even thew "wrong" play from H17 is usually "right" play on S17 if the count is high enough. The 2/6/8 deck differences are also trivial.

What threw me was NDAS (single deck or a crappy doubledeck game). To the point where it made me avoid one game. It's the sort of thing that I could easily switch to, but it would have required some preperatory practice.

thank you for the info. i was wondering as i've really only played just mainly six deck or eight deck s17 games with or without lsr. so stuck on those games i sometimes forget that others exist lol.
but i got to thinking if and when i run into some other games well i was just wondering how much ground work would be inorder.
but i'd imagine one would need to tweak ones bet ramp and maybe spread as well.

 

[EasyRhino]

Weekend update: Was very lazy this weekend, so didn't spend much time "making the donuts." Trips to the casinos amounted to little more than coupon-cashing runs (which still made them worth my time). Played about two and a half hours at three different joints. Won at the first, had a mostly offsetting loss at the second, and a small win during the single shoe that I played at the third place. However, while working through a free slot play coupon, I hit quad dueces playing video poker. That meant a $1000 win, so that was a very pleasant surprise.

So, going to the bank, I had the weekends winnings plus an online cashout that amounted to a $430 profit. Bankroll snapshot: almost $39k. Definitely not going to have any play for the next two weeks (travel).

(Note to self, if making a deposit at an ATM, make sure that you actually put all the money in the envelope before you put it in the slot. Otherwise you get a call from the bank telling you they had to adjust your transaction by a few thousand dollars).

Why?

On another message board, I got a PM asking me why I'm doing this. The gist was that most people tend to do this for the money. I, on the other hand, have mainly been plowing winnings back into the bankroll, yet this whole operation still consumes a lot of free time. Which begs the questtion... why?

That's a good question. The short answer would be "I'm obviously retarded". The lengthier answer is more nuanced:

1) I think my primary goal when embarking on this whole thing was not money, but rather to win. Or, in other words, to stick it to The Man. In such a contest, points are scored with dollars. If I kept taking money out of my bankroll, how would I know the score?

2) I always liked the idea of being able to bankroll-build to a point where my play reached a significant level. "Significant" being an entirely subjective term. I have viewed most of my play as a front-loaded investment with a hopeful eventual deferred payout.

So, over the near term, I'm still trying to build the BR to the point where my risk of ruin gets trivially small. And while money is not hte primary motivator, it would still be nice. So, fingers crossed, I'll eventually get to a point where I can declare my bankroll "secure," although it will probably be at a glacially slow rate.

 

[bluewhale]

On another message board, I got a PM asking me why I'm doing this. The gist was that most people tend to do this for the money. I, on the other hand, have mainly been plowing winnings back into the bankroll, yet this whole operation still consumes a lot of free time. Which begs the questtion... why?

hehe, very good response to the question. i often wonder the same thing as i never spend the money i make gambling. and you answered it very well, bankroll stability and sticking it to the man :devil:

i've watched you online from probably before anyone else... all the way from that mini-blog on the old "beginners guide to beating bonuses" thing. i think you've been doing this for almost 2 year right? 39k in 2 yrs is pretty good man. congrats.

 

[Kasi]

i was wondering as i've really only played just mainly six deck or eight deck s17 games with or without lsr. so stuck on those games i sometimes forget that others exist lol.
but i got to thinking if and when i run into some other games well i was just wondering how much ground work would be inorder.
but i'd imagine one would need to tweak ones bet ramp and maybe spread as well.

For a Basic Strategy playing a multi-deck BS for 1D and 2D games really wouldn't cost you that much. Maybe a half of a tenth of a percent worst case? Something like that.

Although learning the differences for a BS player is very simple as there are never very many different plays to learn anyway.

For an AP player, I'd say you'd potentially need to do a heckuva lot more than "tweak" lol.

 

[Kasi]

1) I think my primary goal when embarking on this whole thing was not money, but rather to win. Or, in other words, to stick it to The Man. In such a contest, points are scored with dollars. If I kept taking money out of my bankroll, how would I know the score?

No big deal but this made me wonder how you do keep score. Is all you do, and want to do, is maybe subtract a starting bankroll from current bankroll to know your net win from all sources?

I guess I thought you probably were separately keeping track of things like online net wins, maybe vid poker the same or maybe a category like coupon hustling or something. Maybe other categories, craps, comps, whatever that might have been additions or subtractions to your roll. And, maybe one for card-counting wins and losses.

I mean what if your online wins are $40K but card-counting losses are $20K so your bankroll has gone up $20K kind of thing. Would you know? Would you care?

Everyone has different ways of doing things. Just wondering. If too personal, just ignore lol.

Regardless, I don't see how withdrawing money would change however much you have won.

 

[EasyRhino]

Well, poo.

After a substantial hiatus, got in some local play. But I'm still holding a grudge against my local mail carrier. Work has a nasty habit of leaving me out of town around the beginning of the month, and I've managed to lose like 5 different cashback mailers over the last few months. After a while, we're talking real money.

Anyway, First two sessions were very short. During one, I got pounded early, stumbled into a high count, put out two max bets, and ended up getting BJ's on both (zg's "one in an uber-million" phenomenon). That was kind of nice. Another highlight was an index play that I "guessed" at (which I normally don't recommend). But I was dealt A,6 vs 2 in a very high count (past KO's pivot point), and just knew that I was supposed to double it. Fortunately, after just now looking it up, I was right (TC +1) and I even managed to win that hand) Led to a breakeven session.

Second store had me winning about $1000 very quickly. Pretty much as soon as I got an opportunity to raise my bets, I started winning hands.

Third session was a substantially longer one. This particular place has a game which, on paper, should be pretty good. And I got in a lot of time at fairly uncrowded tables, but man, this particular store really seems to have my number. I'm pretty sure I'm a net loser here, as it's hosted several of my largest losses. And I lost again today. Ratholing helped amplify the damage some, but when I got back and did the math, it was still a $2600 loss. Most of the damage was done in high counts.

Fourth session was micro-sized. A small break in otherwise swamped tables appeared, I jumped in and played a few decks worth. Won $175 before the table was swarmed again.

And anyway, at one store, I noticed a dealer inserting the cut card farther back than usual in the doubledeck game. That was pretty cool, so I played at his table for a while before he rotated. Later, out of curiosity, I checked out the 6D game he was dealer, and under 1 deck was cut off! He may not know it yet, but I'm his new best friend.

Oh, and in online bonus-whoring over the last few weeks, I had a few whirlwing high-variance bonuses which left me at basically break-even.

Bankroll snapshot: $37,750 (my gambling bankroll is dangerously close to being supassed by my 401k, it's really a race between me and the stock market to see who can perform worse)

 

[sagefr0g]

....... Another highlight was an index play that I "guessed" at (which I normally don't recommend). But I was dealt A,6 vs 2 in a very high count (past KO's pivot point), and just knew that I was supposed to double it. Fortunately, after just now looking it up, I was right (TC +1) and I even managed to win that hand) Led to a breakeven session.
....

why sure EasyRhino by now you should be able to guess a lot of them.

 

[EasyRhino]

I pretty much just stick with the illustrius 18. Even THOSE don't come up that frequently, let alone a fairly unlike soft double down play.

Plus, I'm a little uncomfortable making index plays with an unbalanced count, especially negative indices, since those have migrated very far away from the pivot.

But guessing at indices can be super dangerous. A while back I was dealt a 14v10 in a super-high count. I would have though that the count was justify standing, but I hit anyway as a fallback. And if I'm reading Professional Blackjack right, the TC at which you'd stand with 14v10 doesn't exist (or at least it's over TC +10). And that's why, after the first time I started guessing at index plays, I realized that I had actually been playing like a complete crackhead.

 

[mjbballar23]

After a substantial hiatus, got in some local play. But I'm still holding a grudge against my local mail carrier. Work has a nasty habit of leaving me out of town around the beginning of the month, and I've managed to lose like 5 different cashback mailers over the last few months. After a while, we're talking real money.

Anyway, First two sessions were very short. During one, I got pounded early, stumbled into a high count, put out two max bets, and ended up getting BJ's on both (zg's "one in an uber-million" phenomenon). That was kind of nice. Another highlight was an index play that I "guessed" at (which I normally don't recommend). But I was dealt A,6 vs 2 in a very high count (past KO's pivot point), and just knew that I was supposed to double it. Fortunately, after just now looking it up, I was right (TC +1) and I even managed to win that hand) Led to a breakeven session.

Second store had me winning about $1000 very quickly. Pretty much as soon as I got an opportunity to raise my bets, I started winning hands.

Third session was a substantially longer one. This particular place has a game which, on paper, should be pretty good. And I got in a lot of time at fairly uncrowded tables, but man, this particular store really seems to have my number. I'm pretty sure I'm a net loser here, as it's hosted several of my largest losses. And I lost again today. Ratholing helped amplify the damage some, but when I got back and did the math, it was still a $2600 loss. Most of the damage was done in high counts.

Fourth session was micro-sized. A small break in otherwise swamped tables appeared, I jumped in and played a few decks worth. Won $175 before the table was swarmed again.

And anyway, at one store, I noticed a dealer inserting the cut card farther back than usual in the doubledeck game. That was pretty cool, so I played at his table for a while before he rotated. Later, out of curiosity, I checked out the 6D game he was dealer, and under 1 deck was cut off! He may not know it yet, but I'm his new best friend.

Oh, and in online bonus-whoring over the last few weeks, I had a few whirlwing high-variance bonuses which left me at basically break-even.

Bankroll snapshot: $37,750 (my gambling bankroll is dangerously close to being supassed by my 401k, it's really a race between me and the stock market to see who can perform worse)

Of all your winnings, how much has been from bonus whoring and cashback coupons compared to money you've won from straight counting? I haven't read all your posts but it seems like you've struggled at the tables, at least as of recently.