Man, this "counting" stuff is hard.

[Kasi]

and would be comfortable playing craps or roulette with your green chips before cashing them in.

Be real careful having someone else cashing your chips in. That could be a world of trouble too.

 

[Mimosine]

However, having individual casino employees get on to you can be a bad thing, all it takes is one narc to ruin everything. Kind of like a game of russian roulette, and each employee that thinks you're up to something is a bullet.

i think you should start playing a different shift. i got my first backoff, and major heat at one routine casino and one casino i'd never been to before just recently. all three came out of the blue.... never hurts to be diligent by trying to AVOID problems. if you think a dealer is on to you, you should find a new table unless you're friends with that dealer... then in that case ask for 95% pen. that is what i do

 

[EasyRhino]

All right, some minor updates.

At Casino A, which is the one that "has my number" and I have a generally poor win/loss record at, despite being a decent game, I managed to have book a sizable loss just over $2000. Casino B, I managed to lose a few hundred at, in crowded and undecisive play. Casino C (which, recently, I "can't lose at", despite having a worse game) featured a win of a few hundred, after a steep and quick initial loss. And finally, Casino D also sported a win of several hundred. The first several occassions I had to thrown down max bets worked very well, ant results would have been even better if the last high count had three rounds of 2x max bets lose... but c'est la vie. Of course, I ratholed the whole way.

Net result was a loss for the week of a few hundred. Bankroll snapshot $37.5k.

- I finally checked out the much-advertised high roller single deck game at Barona ($100 min, but basically 0.0% house edge). Dealer was only dealing rule of 5 (3 rounds to two players). Lame.

- At two local places, some promotions had caused crowds to be pathological. I'm talking crowds out the door, no parking places, kind of crowds. It was ridiculous, they weren't even very good promos.

- I actually benefitted from, of all things, a player's club boothling error. When I gave her a mailed in coupon for a small freeplay bonus, she cashed it, and then handed it back to me rather than discarding it. I was then able to cash this AGAIN on my next trip.

- I played some Pai Gow to use matchplay coupons from an establishment where I have been requested to not play blackjack. Pai Gow is boring. But what's worse, every time I won a hand, I became incredibly incensed by the 5%commission paid back to the house... it was somehow more galling to have the house edge made so obvious. The game, however, is good if watching paint dry is too intense for you.

- At one place that usually had lousy pen, found another dealer that was delivering decent pen. However, the table was fairly full. How to deal with it? Spread to multiple hands in positive counts like a madman. And for a while, I was having a lot of luck with this, to the point where adjacent players began increasing their bets when they saw mine go up. Oops.

 

[BJApprentice21]

Man, this is a real motivating thread. To me, it proves that with practice, dedication and know how in AP anyone can render the casinos helpless.

You started with $500 (then got real lucky that you caught the good end of the variance early because your bets were risky), and now you have 37k! I know you had a nice 6k BR boost, but still...you turned that into 37k.

Now, your talking about $2,000 losses like its change you'd give to a bum at the corner store. Not only that, but despite your losses in the thousands in any given session, you stick with it and end up winning most of it back or even come out ahead...takes balls and confidence in your craft to do that. Not to mention knowing your craft.

IMO this is more than simply luck. Your skills as an AP must be damn good, and I'm now motivated more than ever to practice. I'm not expecting the same results (that quickly anyway), but I will be playing smart with minimal RoR involved and proper bet spreads because after seeing what you've done with a high RoR to start with (I assume...at least it was higher than I'd be comfortable with)...I can only imagine the possibilities playing strategically from the get go with AP mastery so to speak.

True motivation.

-Apprentice.

 

[mjbballar23]

Man, this is a real motivating thread. To me, it proves that with practice, dedication and know how in AP anyone can render the casinos helpless.

You started with $500 (then got real lucky that you caught the good end of the variance early because your bets were risky), and now you have 37k! I know you had a nice 6k BR boost, but still...you turned that into 37k.

Now, your talking about $2,000 losses like its change you'd give to a bum at the corner store. Not only that, but despite your losses in the thousands in any given session, you stick with it and end up winning most of it back or even come out ahead...takes balls and confidence in your craft to do that. Not to mention knowing your craft.

IMO this is more than simply luck. Your skills as an AP must be damn good, and I'm now motivated more than ever to practice. I'm not expecting the same results (that quickly anyway), but I will be playing smart with minimal RoR involved and proper bet spreads because after seeing what you've done with a high RoR to start with (I assume...at least it was higher than I'd be comfortable with)...I can only imagine the possibilities playing strategically from the get go with AP mastery so to speak.

True motivation.

-Apprentice.

BJApprentice21 - you must not have read this entire thread. I actually feel the exact opposite. I think EasyRhino's thread just shows how difficult it is to make a profit counting cards. He started with $500 and built it up to as high as 40k i think but 32k of that was won through bonus whoring, not from blackjack. He has also been on a terrible 6 month loosing/neutral streak which really speaks to the ups, downs, and uncertainty involved in the game. I dont know about you but being able to place $500 max bets and only be up $6000 or so from card counting would be pretty discouraging to me. I give Easy a lot of credit for grinding out the tough times. Based on the number of hours he seems to put in i would guess he is approaching 2 standard deviations below his expected value, which is pretty unfortunate.

Never the less i really do enjoy reading how Easy started out as a $5 minimum player and has now worked up to a $25 minimum player all through AP, not necessarily blackjack.

 

[bluewhale]

I think you got his bets wrong. i'm pretty sure he doesn't bet 500/hand even now. I don't think he is really significantly below expected because a lot of play came from low limit play. Correct me if i'm wrong ER.

and at BJApprentice21... beating BJ is really not that tough. learn basic strategy. do deck countdowns. spend some time getting someone to deal to you on a kitchen table and then get out there and start playing. Not to take away from ER, but his skill is perserverence, not exceptional skills at blackjack. Unlike a lot of the people who get into blackjack, ER actually goes out there and plays blackjack instead of just talking about it. Don't underestimate this, getting out there and putting out the +EV bets is the only way you're gonna come out ahead.... this is the main reason we all are involved with the game.

BJApprentice21 - you must not have read this entire thread. I actually feel the exact opposite. I think EasyRhino's thread just shows how difficult it is to make a profit counting cards. He started with $500 and built it up to as high as 40k i think but 32k of that was won through bonus whoring, not from blackjack. He has also been on a terrible 6 month loosing/neutral streak which really speaks to the ups, downs, and uncertainty involved in the game. I dont know about you but being able to place $500 max bets and only be up $6000 or so from card counting would be pretty discouraging to me. I give Easy a lot of credit for grinding out the tough times. Based on the number of hours he seems to put in i would guess he is approaching 2 standard deviations below his expected value, which is pretty unfortunate.

Never the less i really do enjoy reading how Easy started out as a $5 minimum player and has now worked up to a $25 minimum player all through AP, not necessarily blackjack.

 

[EasyRhino]

Man, this is a real motivating thread.

Yikes, I'm sorry. If anything, I would think this thread would drive home how counting cards with any sort of a profit motive isn't really a good idea.

It's unfortunate that calculating my lifetime-to-date EV is a hopelessly futile endeavor:
- unknown total hours
- unknown hours spent at each bet level
- unknown EV at each bet level

It's also worth noting that most of my sessions since I stopped greenchipping are fairly short, no more of "the good old days" of hanging out at one table for 8 hours while moving my lips trying to keep the count.

Plus, let's just assume that the hourly win rate is $30/hr after accounting for crowding, tipping, mistakes, cover, etc. By my standards, that's still pretty decent money. However, just arithmetic would say that I'd need 167 hours to win $5000. Now let's say that I average about 5 hours of play a week. This is not unrealistic considering the weeks that go by where I don't play at all due to work or social engagements. Arithmetic would tell us that winning that $5000 would take nearly eight months. I can lose $5000 in two hours. Hell, I have lost $5000 in two hours!

Incidentally, max bet now is usually $300, or 2x$200. Unless I've made a horrible mistake with a stack of green chips, or I spot an ace.

I would also agree that this uber-thread is a better discussion for what one can do with a lack of skills, rather than substantial skills.


Oh, but I did forget to relate two other mini-anecdotes:

- I was sitting at the table, minding my at third base, when BLAM! the pit boss is Right. On. Me... Practically leaning against my shoulders. ("What the hell?") Oh crap, I was so completely convinced I was going to collect my next backoff. Hell, this was the only casino where I've seen people cuffed out on the main floor... so maybe it would have been worse.

I was starting to collect my chips ("how the hell did they get so scattered?!") but the dealer was already dealing the hand while I had a bet in the circle. "C'mon c'mon, deal faster dammit!". My two cards add up to 9, the dealer is showing 10. Seeing my last opportunity to try a cover play, or at least get rid of a couple chips I was having trouble gathering, I thought a double-down would be great, and flung some chips into the betting circle.... "Easy money!"

Then I hear the pit boss call out.

I might have flinched visibly.

Then I realize he's trying to flag down a customer that had just left the table. Sheesh.

(I think I won the hand.)

- I actually saw a dealer flash one of her cards at three card poker when I was scouting out some tables, intentionally looking for such a thing! It was kind of exciting, but ultimately disappointing, because a) it was not a systemic weakness in her motion, but the result of a temporary distraction, and b) I didn't even know the (super simple) strategy to use against a flashing 3CP dealer. (I have since looked up the strategy)

 

[bj bob]

Man, this is a real motivating thread. To me, it proves that with practice, dedication and know how in AP anyone can render the casinos helpless.

You started with $500 (then got real lucky that you caught the good end of the variance early because your bets were risky), and now you have 37k! I know you had a nice 6k BR boost, but still...you turned that into 37k.

Now, your talking about $2,000 losses like its change you'd give to a bum at the corner store. Not only that, but despite your losses in the thousands in any given session, you stick with it and end up winning most of it back or even come out ahead...takes balls and confidence in your craft to do that. Not to mention knowing your craft.

IMO this is more than simply luck. Your skills as an AP must be damn good, and I'm now motivated more than ever to practice. I'm not expecting the same results (that quickly anyway), but I will be playing smart with minimal RoR involved and proper bet spreads because after seeing what you've done with a high RoR to start with (I assume...at least it was higher than I'd be comfortable with)...I can only imagine the possibilities playing strategically from the get go with AP mastery so to speak.

True motivation.

-Apprentice.

The saga continues.....Easy's ecapades are far from over. Starting from his humble beginnings and having walked two miles each way to school in knee-deep snow, he eventually worked his way through high school and finally into college. Now, at the top of the world having become an accountant in a California company and a county class AP. One could only wish to emulate his life's story.
On the more serious side. He did, in fact increase his starting BR by a power of 12. Amasing Rate of Return* (*this term he can professionally define) if you ask anyone. Not to mention the comps he accrued* along the way. They must be in the thousands by now. Good job! Currently he's in a bit of a neg. variance, however, what we are overlooking is that when it turns around at this current bet level, his BR will explode.
Finally, when taking a linear EV calculation it fails to account* for the lower bet level, thus making the hourly EV seem rather minuscule: however, when put into perspective it is actually more in line with the overall betting structure.
So friends, stay tuned! The next few upcoming eposodes of the mini series Easy Money will be nail biters, perhaps resulting in a very happy ending.:devil:

 

[EasyRhino]

a very happy ending.:devil:

Depends on which clubs I go to. But that would be inappropriate to discuss here.

 

[bj bob]

Depends on which clubs I go to. But that would be inappropriate to discuss here.

Yeah, I hear you, dude. Mom might be POS.as we speak.

 

[mjbballar23]

I think you got his bets wrong. i'm pretty sure he doesn't bet 500/hand even now. I don't think he is really significantly below expected because a lot of play came from low limit play. Correct me if i'm wrong ER.

and at BJApprentice21... beating BJ is really not that tough. learn basic strategy. do deck countdowns. spend some time getting someone to deal to you on a kitchen table and then get out there and start playing. Not to take away from ER, but his skill is perserverence, not exceptional skills at blackjack. Unlike a lot of the people who get into blackjack, ER actually goes out there and plays blackjack instead of just talking about it. Don't underestimate this, getting out there and putting out the +EV bets is the only way you're gonna come out ahead.... this is the main reason we all are involved with the game.

Ok I wasnt sure exactly what his max bet was but with a 40k bankroll you should be able to push out some large max bets. i guess i thought that he played more than 5 hours a week so his results may not be that far below EV but what i was trying to point out was that his bankroll has been stalled for the last several months. Also i was not saying that blackjack is tough to beat, just that it is tough to consistantly make a profit as EasyRhino's currently loosing streak clearly shows.

 

[bluewhale]

Depends on which clubs I go to. But that would be inappropriate to discuss here.

is there any chance you are going to team up with anyone ER? cause IMO 21 is a team sport. playing it solo is way too swingy.... as you well know you can go for months at a stretch and still be down easily. my team has has NEVER had a losing multi-day trip over our 4 trips so far. at first i thought it was mainly luck. but now i realize that the odds of u finishing up after playing 100 hrs are actually pretty good.

 

[Kasi]

I actually feel the exact opposite. I think EasyRhino's thread just shows how difficult it is to make a profit counting cards.... but being able to place $500 max bets and only be up $6000 or so from card counting would be pretty discouraging to me.

I couldn't agree with you more. A BS player flat-betting $200 without counting for 16700 hands would still be well within 1 SD and make $5K.

I would love to know what system can show an EV of $30/hr and still lose 5K in 2 hours. What's that mean - your avg bet was $30 with a 1% adv?

I guess this is to ER but I hope sometime maybe you take it to the next level so you don't end up like this again since, and I truly admire your honesty, like you said, it's impossible to say much of anything knowing basically nothing.

If you ever choose to share even a session's results playing with 1 plan to 1 game, more or less - nothing is exact lol, people here can help you relate the results. But a ball park guess is alot better than just betting all over the place.

You mention you sometimes run a sim - is it Power sim? If you ever decide to follow whatever that plan suggested, even for a hundred hands, send me the sim file and I'll help you with the math. Send you a template - whatever it takes. Over time it'll make sense. All you'll ever have to know is how many hands you played to a plan. Make a hundred plans I don't care - just know/guess how many hands you played for that plan. What's wrong with taking 2 minutes to write down results on a neg EV break in the boy's room? It's not like you can do it too often.

I mean if you really wanted to embrace it, bet to that $40K roll for all the different games you play with a low ROR and it's quite likely a year from now it'll be 80K.

These 3-5K "sessions" got me a little worried lol.

No biggie - I know you're just having fun. And I like your vodka and Red Bull strategy lol. Might try that next trip. If I don't achieve my EV of getting wide-awake loaded, I'll be a little disappointed lol.

Guess I'm on my high horse again - apologies.

 

[EasyRhino]

I couldn't agree with you more. A BS player flat-betting $200 without counting for 16700 hands would still be well within 1 SD and make $5K.
I would love to know what system can show an EV of $30/hr and still lose 5K in 2 hours. What's that mean - your avg bet was $30 with a 1% adv?

To be frank, this is becoming slightly annoying. There can be individual sessions where someone flat betting $200 can win or lose $5000, because I've had online sessions where flat-betting $20 has caused swings of greater than $500. Hell, just last month, over 400 hands of $10 BJ, I had a balance whipsaw from $400, up to $600, down to $200, and back to $400 before I was done. Add a zero to the bets, and you're talking some significant swings.

Sometimes I wonder if you've really played all those online hands of bonus-whoring blackjack that you talk about.

Just for shits and giggles, let's break down a recent session of mine:

2D game, H17 DAS, no surrender. Using reko with indices. Bet ramp was $50-$100-$150-$200-$300. Penetration is assumed to be 66% (because a dealer told me that policy was to cut off 35 cards at this place, and my eyes guessed the pen was at least that good).

Plug all that into powersim, with a $36000 bankroll (which would have been my bankroll at that moment) and you get a win rate of $93 per 100 hands, a score of 39.9, and a ROR of 4.6%.

I played for one hour and 40 minutes. My tip rate is about $20 / 100 hands, although that session I think I tipped $20 during the entire session.

Great, that's the chalkboard version, but here's where reality enters the fray and confuses the issue:

- Playing some heads up, and some with one other player, how does that affect the speed?
- Game slowdown from flirting with the dealer and BS'ing with the floorman.
- The unknown effect of mistakes. I mean, I didn't catch myself making any mistakes, but that's always hard to do, isn't it?
- Sometimes not lowering my bet after a win, and sometimes betting bigger off the top (especially if the last shoe ended with a big bet win).
- The effect of other players at the table on penetration and betting cover (not an issue this particular session due to light crowding).
- Effect of spreading to multiple hands (not an issue this session)
- Three bathroom/phone breaks during negative counts.
- Played a couple of obvious negative indices (13v2, 12v4) when called for.
- Once in a rare while "chipping up" bets in a super high count, only after a win.
- Split tens at least once.
- Sometimes tipping less if a BJ is a min bet, or if I end up taking even money on it.
- Doubled down 10v10 on at least two occasions when it wasn't called for, as well as several instances of standing 16v10.
- A single interaction play with another player at the table.

None of these things are readiliy quantifiable, at least not to me. And I'm okay with that. But if I subtract the tipping expense, and subtract for cover and mistakes, and assume 100 hands/hour, then $30/hour felt like a nice conservative estimate for a win rate. Plus, a lot of the other local DD games have bad penetration. But still, it's more than I make in my day job, so that ain't too shabby.

 

[EasyRhino]

Oh, forgot to update what's been going on in Rhinoville. Only three sessions worth noting. A medium-length one that was nearly break-even, another medium length one that produced a nice win ($1500), and a third, long session, where I got de-pantsed by over $3.5k.

The bad session started out amazingly bad. I manage to find a time when the tables weren't over-crowded (early morning), but it just left me more time to lose. The first three really high counts I got were just train wrecks, and there were a few extended periods of losing with small bets out too. I was probably down about $5k at the nadir, but one good high count, and one crazy winning streak when I had a $100 bet out (and couldn't lower it due to the win streak), helped a little bit.

But hey, I got a free buffet out of it.

Bankroll snapshot is a bit under $35k.

- I got caught "churning" ratholed chips at the cashier by an alert employee. One day, he apparantely remembered that I had come up with fairly small amounts of chips (like $200) to cash out, followed later by a much larger cashout. So, the next time I'm at the cage, same employee sees me with $100 in greens, and immediately asks for my player's card to keep multiple transaction register. I assume this is mainly just for cashiering (CTR) purposes, but if the cashier people eveer started to talk to the table games people... yuck. Anyway, got to be more careful with that.

- I think my sense of money is starting to get seriously distorted. I'm sitting here with $3900 on my desk, and it's about as disorganized as everything else on my desk. Too much of a nuisance to take to the bank, really. And yesterday, I saw a documentary about the Dallas SWAT team. They raided a crackhouse and seized some drugs and some guns, but only $2k in cash. Pfft. Amateurs.

Oh, and there was one other notable thing that happened last week, but I'll need to write it up in a separate post.

 

[bluewhale]

To be frank, this is becoming slightly annoying. There can be individual sessions where someone flat betting $200 can win or lose $5000, because I've had online sessions where flat-betting $20 has caused swings of greater than $500. Hell, just last month, over 400 hands of $10 BJ, I had a balance whipsaw from $400, up to $600, down to $200, and back to $400 before I was done. Add a zero to the bets, and you're talking some significant swings.

i recently lost 5k flat betting $50/hand over 100k wagering.

2D game, H17 DAS, no surrender. Using reko with indices. Bet ramp was $50-$100-$150-$200-$300. Penetration is assumed to be 66% (because a dealer told me that policy was to cut off 35 cards at this place, and my eyes guessed the pen was at least that good).

Plug all that into powersim, with a $36000 bankroll (which would have been my bankroll at that moment) and you get a win rate of $93 per 100 hands, a score of 39.9, and a ROR of 4.6%.

I played for one hour and 40 minutes. My tip rate is about $20 / 100 hands, although that session I think I tipped $20 during the entire session.

Great, that's the chalkboard version, but here's where reality enters the fray and confuses the issue:

- Playing some heads up, and some with one other player, how does that affect the speed?
- Game slowdown from flirting with the dealer and BS'ing with the floorman.
- The unknown effect of mistakes. I mean, I didn't catch myself making any mistakes, but that's always hard to do, isn't it?
- Sometimes not lowering my bet after a win, and sometimes betting bigger off the top (especially if the last shoe ended with a big bet win).
- The effect of other players at the table on penetration and betting cover (not an issue this particular session due to light crowding).
- Effect of spreading to multiple hands (not an issue this session)
- Three bathroom/phone breaks during negative counts.
- Played a couple of obvious negative indices (13v2, 12v4) when called for.
- Once in a rare while "chipping up" bets in a super high count, only after a win.
- Split tens at least once.
- Sometimes tipping less if a BJ is a min bet, or if I end up taking even money on it.
- Doubled down 10v10 on at least two occasions when it wasn't called for, as well as several instances of standing 16v10.
- A single interaction play with another player at the table.

None of these things are readiliy quantifiable, at least not to me. And I'm okay with that. But if I subtract the tipping expense, and subtract for cover and mistakes, and assume 100 hands/hour, then $30/hour felt like a nice conservative estimate for a win rate. Plus, a lot of the other local DD games have bad penetration. But still, it's more than I make in my day job, so that ain't too shabby.

I think you should seriously reconsider how much you tip. I only tip at the end of a shoe. and even then only if i win. This is taking a huge chunk out of your hourly. Also i think your RoR is MUCH bigger than you think it is because of the tipping (and other factors you mentioned). You calculated your ramp based on ideal factors and came up with a $93/100 win rate correct? However since your actual win rate is approx a third of that your advantage is much lower than you used to calculate your ramp. Which means your RoR is a lot higher and you are probably doing some serious overbetting.

 

[Kasi]

Just for and giggles, let's break down a recent session of mine:

Cool - that's what I call a plan and a diary entry. Nice going. At least you have something to compare to.

For the speed of play - just guess how many hands, maybe a range, you played. Since hours always seem to be 100 hands sometimes knowing only hours might be misleading over time. Hopefully you wrote down win/loss too somewhere lol.

Mistakes don't matter - that's why you do this - to find out.

A little cover betting - so what. A few indexes so what (assume Powersim assumed no indexes). Whatever - no big deal. Doubling 10 vs 10 - so what. Hardly ever happens anyway.

Since the end goal is to have a clue of how the plan is performing, I don't care what you do with tips as long as you know what you won/lost just from playing BJ with this plan.

If you play a game with poorer pen maybe time to run another sim lol.

I don't see how you get $30/hr when it says $93?

Anyway let me know if you feel like sending me the sim file and maybe I can create a template for you for future use. If you want.

Didn't realize you used reko.

 

[Automatic Monkey]

... I was probably down about $5k at the nadir, but one good high count, and one crazy winning streak when I had a $100 bet out (and couldn't lower it due to the win streak), helped a little bit....

Wow that's some pretty heavy cover, not lowering a bet after a win! Especially since statistically the count will go down after you win a hand. It would take a really profitable game (on the order of a single deck game) to justify that. You might want to work on some other kind of cover act that will allow you to drop a bet after a win.

 

[EasyRhino]

Wow that's some pretty heavy cover, not lowering a bet after a win!

Yeah, it's only something I occasionally do. And even if I do it, I'll cheat by "chipping down", or taking any opportunity if the chips get stacked funny, or after a double down, to drop the bet, seemingly forgetting what I had bet before. In the partcular instance of the streak mentioned above, it was a 2-unit bet, I was winning without even have to take a card, so there was very little activity on my part. After the fifth or so win, it would have looked weird to drop the bet.

I think you should seriously reconsider how much you tip. I only tip at the end of a shoe. and even then only if i win... You calculated your ramp based on ideal factors and came up with a $93/100 win rate correct? However since your actual win rate is approx a third of that your advantage is much lower than you used to calculate your ramp. Which means your RoR is a lot higher and you are probably doing some serious overbetting.

I'll take a closer look at my tipping policy. Tipping at the end of shoes won't work in a doubledeck game, but I get your drift.

And you make an good point about RoR. I had, not conscoiusly, been "compartmentalizing" the discrepancies betwen textbook play and whatever I was doing. I mean... I'd be happy with merely subtracting the tipping and cover cost from the theoretical win rate and RoR. But that's not right. Since the tipping and cover costs are coming "off the top" as I'm playing, they're going to interact with win rate, variance, and RoR, in ways that I don't fully understand, or even know how to model, but are almost definitely more serious.

Interestingly, the different in theoretical win rate in DD games with different penetrations (50%-80%) isn't as big as I would have thought. However, the RoR differences are more dramatic.

 

[EasyRhino]

Oh, so anyway, the other notable thing last week is I got barred from another local place. And none of that namby-pamby "you're welcome to play any game besides blackjack" crap, but a full-on 86'ing.

My mistakes:
1) As usual, the session was longer than recommended (about 2 hours)
2) I had been to this place a bit too frequently. It was the second time that week, and a few that month. Now, I had manage to spread it across two shifts, and a wide variety of floor personnel within shifts... but still, not good
3) I thought I could outsmart it when I saw it coming (see below).

Narrative:
So, I'm playing my game. Conditions are pretty good, the table isn't crowded (I'm heads up some, with one player some). Penetration is solid. Heck, I was even winning a little bit during the session. After an hour or so and a dinner break, there's a new floorman at the table (youngish guy). And after a little bit, I notice him hawking my play. Not too much at first, I'm just keeping him in the peripheral vision to see if he keeps lingering. He does, and he starts hawking the game hard. I mean, I've never seen anything as obvious in my life, he's locked in on the table. And then he even talks quietly to the dealer (while oriented away from me), something about adjusting the placement of the cut card (although the dealer didn't change the cut after the shuffle, so I don't know what that was about). I just watch with amusement and a clueless expression.

So anyway, by this point (actually, before this point), I realized I had an option: I could step away from the table, cash my chips, and head home to lie low. Or, I could get cocky, think "I'm smarter than these guys," and try to lay some heavy cover to throw off the surveillance guys that I figured were inevitably watching the game at this point.

Guess which option I picked?

So I started doing some seriously bad card-counting. I mean, it was really bad. First I started playing my indices backwards. And then I started trying to make my bets as non-correlated with the count as possible. First I did a positive progression, then a negative one, and then I did some betting that was straight inverse to the count. I cried a little bit on the inside for how much this was costing me in negative EV (Blackjack being an ironic bitch, it didn't cost me anything in actual results during that session).

I got stuck in a flat-betting rut, and I felt it would be a good idea to jump my bet from 1x to 4x (I hadn't ever jumped that fast) for no damn good reason in a modestly negative (and dropping) count. I mean, that's got to signal me as clueless to anyone who's counting along, right?

My next hand was a natural. Good grief. With that, I see the floorman sprint to the podium to pick up the phone. I imagine his side of the conversation was "Did you see that ****?!"

A master of camouflage, I am not.

After a few more minutes of putting on a show, I decide that I can't really do any worse. Plus, it's taking a lot of effort to play so bad. I color up my chips, and begin a leisurely stroll towards the cashier.

I am then intercepted by the shift manager and two security guards. At which point I am asked to exchange my chips to the cage, walk out the door, and never return to any portion of the casino again. I didn't really get in much of an argument with them (no lawsuits here!). One of the security guards hovered at a discreet distance while I was at the cage. However, once I was out the door, there was recording of my license plate number, or car towing, or any other parking-lot-related drama.

Analysis:
I've been puzzling it over in my head, and I'm not sure if I was the victim of a "smart" barring, or a "dumb" barring. Allow me to explain:

If it was a "smart" barring, then the casino probably got a whiff that something was wrong several sessions ago. I may have been flagged in a sort of low key way. Hell, that may have been why the floorman was hawking the game, as he was keying off the flag, not off his own observations. The last session would have merely been the straw that broke the camel's back.

If that was the case, I don't think the decision to try to camo my out of it was a bad one, because an early departure would have, at best, gotten me only an extra session or two, and more likely and instantly backoff on my next appearance. Even though the camo act was probably still a long shot, I think it would have been worth it if surveillance certified me as an idiot.

If it was a "dumb" barring, on the other hand, then maybe things didn't start to go downhill until that session. (I had not noticed a gradual "cooling" of my reception at this casino, so it's possible) Maybe the sweaty floorman was the one who raised the alarm. I can't fault his instincts, but I can fault his obviousness. On the maximum dumbness scale, the casino would have gone to Defcon 1 very very quickly on me. And when I got that accidental natural, it would have just confirmed me as an ace sequencer (ha!).

If this was the case, then my attempt to be clever was totally and surely the wrongest thing I could have done. I could have just left the table, surveillance wouldn't have even begun to check me out yet, and, who knows, the floorman might have even just forgotten about me after a while.

I honestly can't figure out which one happened, but I'm leaning slightly towards "dumb". Which would, of course, make me even dumber.

I think this demonstrated to me why it's generally best to just leave when confronted with heat. Go figure.

The damage:
Well, I lost access to one of the better local games (that I was still allowed to play at, ha!). Plus, I expect adverse repercussions at other casinos in their system. I'm not expecing a Christmas card from them this year, either.

My mood:
After I realized that my car wasn't going to be set on fire on sovreign Indian territory, my main feeling was, strangely, one of relief. I was coming off an increased rate of play, with an increased number of hours and sessions packed over the previous few weeks, all trying to juggle them with my real job and social schedule. With the commuting, it was starting to feel like a job. Add in the bankroll fluctuations, and knowing in my heart that a backoff was inevitable, and it was becoming a grind. Checking that casino off my list suddently freed up a bunch of time in my week, so that was pretty a pretty nice feeling. Almost like the feeling you get when you start a vacation.

Probably just a symptom of burnout.