Man, this "counting" stuff is hard.

[Automatic Monkey]

... 3) About half the time I push out a max bet, I still think to myself "Who the F- actually does this?" just because it seems so financially irresponsible. So I don't really come across as a carefree medium-roller.

One thing I've found helps is thinking about the losses, and when I put big bets out now it's time to take my revenge. Really- I feel cheated when I lose, and the only way to strike back is to win and win big. I guess a good analogy is exchanging punches in a fistfight. Most of us aren't into punching people but if someone has been punching you it gives you a different perspective.

This attitude should be applied in moderation lest it lead to steaming.

 

[21forme]

Another downside to increasing your unit is greater scrutiny when you play. I believe that's what did me in. For about a year, I played a $25 unit with a 1:10 (or 1 to (2x8)) spread, 6D, no heat whatsoever. About a month after I increased to a $50 unit, I was shuffled up at 2 places.

 

[EasyRhino]

It's not losing the hands that causes me to ask "Who the F- does this?", it's the mere placing of bets over $100 that I don't get. For whom is this a fun time? The vast majority of people I see betting at that level seem like idiots. Then there's the scarce minority who seem like decent people who just like to lose money. (... and then there were those two card counters)

This attitude should be applied in moderation lest it lead to steaming.

I've found that my gut instinct when getting my chipstack wiped out by a big hand is not to steam, but to tuck my tail between my legs and run. As I'm digging into my wallet (because hey, it's a great count!) I'm contemplating how many more hands like this I will lose before I have to go home. This makes a steaming act difficult to pull off. Although it does lead to sort of a fatalistic "Well, I had to lose my money somewhere" act.

21forme, what kind of joints were you playing in? I'm sort of curious of a place where a $25 unit was no problem, but $50 was, it doesn't seem like that large of a difference, unless a $500 bet set off some sort of alarm. Either that, or maybe it was just a slow build from when you were playing a $25 unit for months?

 

[sagefr0g]

Quote:
Originally Posted by EasyRhino
... 3) About half the time I push out a max bet, I still think to myself "Who the F- actually does this?" just because it seems so financially irresponsible. So I don't really come across as a carefree medium-roller.

One thing I've found helps is thinking about the losses, and when I put big bets out now it's time to take my revenge. Really- I feel cheated when I lose, and the only way to strike back is to win and win big. I guess a good analogy is exchanging punches in a fistfight. Most of us aren't into punching people but if someone has been punching you it gives you a different perspective.

This attitude should be applied in moderation lest it lead to steaming.

kewl analogy. as you allude jus don't want to punch yer self out like Foreman did versus Ali in the rope a dope fight.
but yeah the steaming thing is a danger. from my experience it is the worst trap to fall into of them all. it can eat up many, many hours of plus EV and it's hard to measure just what it's really done to your game.

 

[Automatic Monkey]

... I've found that my gut instinct when getting my chipstack wiped out by a big hand is not to steam, but to tuck my tail between my legs and run. As I'm digging into my wallet (because hey, it's a great count!) I'm contemplating how many more hands like this I will lose before I have to go home. This makes a steaming act difficult to pull off. Although it does lead to sort of a fatalistic "Well, I had to lose my money somewhere" act.

That can be used to your advantage too. No matter how bad the cards turn, the worst that can happen to you is you have to go home. We've all done it, and nobody died. And if the cards turn good, the table will need a fill. Look at all those chips. The potential for good always exceeds the potential for bad.

Actually gambling at that level, I agree, I don't see how anyone can enjoy it either. But we're AP's, not gamblers. I've been told that it's losing that gamblers actually crave.

 

[21forme]

21forme, what kind of joints were you playing in? I'm sort of curious of a place where a $25 unit was no problem, but $50 was, it doesn't seem like that large of a difference, unless a $500 bet set off some sort of alarm. Either that, or maybe it was just a slow build from when you were playing a $25 unit for months?

I'm playing in AC. One place is all 8 deck, except in the high roller pit ($50 min) where it's 6D. Perhaps added scrutiny in that pit is automatic. The other place is the enigma, in my mind. There are lots of $25 and $50 min tables on the main floor and many folks betting big. It may have been my overall winnings there, even with ratholing, hit a threshold to be watched. It's well into 5 figures since the beginning of the year.

 

[Kasi]

This coincidended with two long weekends in Vegas, where I had nice wins. Bankroll was up to around $20k. "Gee, maybe I should increase my bets again?" ($200) That's when I hit a rockier stretch with a few bad losses, but more online cashouts meant that the bankroll stayed roughly flat or increased slightly.

So a few weeks ago, I hit the "Golly willickers, maybe I should increase my bets again" stage ($250)... And yes, I say "willickers" to myself. Booked a couple more wins, and said "willickers" again.

Thanks for the lengthy reply.

You do what u want, and I still don't know squat, but I just worry about overbetting in general. Hopefully you've simmed betting ramps for the various games you play?

100 lifetime max bets? (sounds like maybe that's your max - 1% of lifetime bankroll?).

Go for longevity - u enjoy the game it sounds. Losing 100 max bets isn't too far fetched. I'd probably prefer, in general, 400 max bets for a lifetime bankroll but, then again, who gives a crap because I don't use counting to make my 2-3 units an hour.

How long did it take u to go from $500 to $5K? Maybe do that a few times.

Maybe put the excess over $10K somewhere where ur wife won't find it lol.

And then play to the $10K bankroll. You can probably double it in a few hundred hours of play maybe. You can wong in and out at $5 tables probably. Probably not at $25 tables? I have no idea how u bet what at what games. If u lose half of it, re-size, If u lose it all, u got another one to play with. Whatever. Lots of options. But, if u r in the slightest degree uncomfortable with ur betting level, drop back and have fun. Go ahead and wildly overbet occasionally because u really won't be
with twice your "lifetime" bankroll earning 10% on Wall Street.

What do u consider to be ur current ROR for the various games u play and how u play them or are u just kind of winging it?

Ask urself how much money u wanna make anyway over how long? Would u be happy never playing BJ again if u made $1MM playing it or would u keep playing it with an ever increasing unit? Is it beating the game or winning $'s that u enjoy more?

Heck, I just get a kick out of just beating the game with an occasional "bigger bet" (my voodoo crap lol) even though it's not alot of money. What's wrong with maybe making maybe an extra $5K a year after tax for the rest of your life with a $5 unit and a few hundred hours of play yearly? So, big deal, I have a >101% payback over hundreds of thousands of hands with only BS. Not exactly alot of absolute dollars, even over a million or 2 of wagering, but I always hated losing more than I enjoyed winning. I like that alot more than the dollars I've won. But, of course, that's just me.

Hey, your life, your money. If u wanna bet ur $25K bankroll the same way u bet ur $500 bankroll and go for $250K the way u turned that into $5K, that's OK too. Just be careful man. I enjoy ur posts!

 

[GeorgeD]

Thanks for the lengthy reply.

Go for longevity - u enjoy the game it sounds. Losing 100 max bets isn't too far fetched. I'd probably prefer, in general, 400 max bets for a lifetime bankroll but, then again, who gives a crap because I don't use counting to make my 2-3 units an hour.

Can I ask how you get 2-3 units/hr without counting?

 

[Kasi]

Can I ask how you get 2-3 units/hr without counting?

Sorry I didn't say that very well and thanks for pointing it out.

I meant to say that he, as a counter, might reasonably be expecting a win rate of 2-3 units an hour as a wild guess. And that that might not be that bad of a thing at a lower unit than $25.

Maybe sacrifice a few bucks to increase the chances of playing for a lifetime.

He just sounds like he works backward from a max bet - like his max bet will always be the same however he plays in whatever game.

Basically I hope he's not overbetting his advantage in whatever game he plays and has some idea of his ROR.

 

[sagefr0g]

Sorry I didn't say that very well and thanks for pointing it out.

i was wondering the same things as i believe you mainly play bs while counting but rarely raise your bets much, right Kasi?

.........

He just sounds like he works backward from a max bet - like his max bet will always be the same however he plays in whatever game.

Basically I hope he's not overbetting his advantage in whatever game he plays and has some idea of his ROR.

actually from what i've read of ER's posts he has a pretty good understanding of all that stuff IMHO.
i think he's grapheling with the difficult issue of going to higher betting limits as his bankroll increases. that's i think a scary thing for many of us. it's a difficult thing to say yeah i'm willing to lose X dollars. well it's easy to say but dealing with the reality of it is not so easy.

 

[EasyRhino]

Kasi, in another thread (I think there may have been a mispost?), you wrote

Apparently everyone here knows exactly the rules of the game and penetration Rhino is talking about, what bankroll he is risking, what the bet ramp is and when, what count he uses, etc., since they're giving such good advice about it.

Rhino, think about investing an hour's expected earnings in a sim and fool around with it. Why risk a, I'm guessing, $25K bankroll, without a very clear idea of ROR and how even dealing 10 more cards in a DD game might effect what u do.

You make a good point. I haven't simmed my play. There's plenty of "theoretical" measurements out there (like the tables section of Blackjack Attack, oy veh!) but they're really just telling you lab results.

So what I'm really operating off of are intuitions on how different play will affect the bankroll. For instance, if I sit down at a DD game with bad penetration, a $50 min bet, and a 5x spread, I know it's dangerous to the bankroll, but I don't know how dangerous. And as the bankroll becomes less replenishable, I know I need to dial beck on the betting, but I'm not really sure of how much.

So yeah, eventually I'll bite the bullet and do some simming.

 

[Kasi]

i was wondering the same things as i believe you mainly play bs while counting but rarely raise your bets much, right Kasi?

actually from what i've read of ER's posts he has a pretty good understanding of all that stuff IMHO.
i think he's grapheling with the difficult issue of going to higher betting limits as his bankroll increases. that's i think a scary thing for many of us. it's a difficult thing to say yeah i'm willing to lose X dollars. well it's easy to say but dealing with the reality of it is not so easy.

U got the first part right O Wise Frog lol. In general anyway lol.

I just hope he does know what he's doing since it sounds like he plays alot of different games alot of different ways and asks alot of questions that he doesn't know the answer to.

And considering using some system that even he says he doesn't understand.

That he's worried about compulsive gambling.

Basically why push it to the max? When will he take the excess profits rather than increase his unit when bankroll increases?

Does he change anything if DD goes to 66% rather than 50%. I don't know.

Having $1000 out on one hand? (assuming that's 4% of bankroll).

A thousand min unit lifetime bankroll? Perhaps for some games, maybe not for others.

So, if ur uncomfortable, maybe don't do it.

Nobody else thinks it's just possible he might be overbetting a bit from time to time?

So, Rhino, what do u think is your ROR for how u play each game that u play?

But I always worry too much so maybe that's the case here.

I'm on ur side Rhino!

 

[Kasi]

Kasi, in another thread (I think there may have been a mispost?), you wroteSo what I'm really operating off of are intuitions on how different play will affect the bankroll. For instance, if I sit down at a DD game with bad penetration, a $50 min bet, and a 5x spread, I know it's dangerous to the bankroll, but I don't know how dangerous. And as the bankroll becomes less replenishable, I know I need to dial beck on the betting, but I'm not really sure of how much.

So yeah, eventually I'll bite the bullet and do some simming.

That's what it sounded like to me.

I'm just guessing but, assuming your playing to a $25K roll, why the heck would u risk that without know what the risk is?

That's as insane as the $100 ploppies u talk about and possibly worse

Just try to be specific and define "bad" penetration. At least have a different game plan for the different games u might be playing and how u might be playing them.

If ur guessing as a card-counter, u might as well be a ploppy guessing what the next card is except, quite possibly, with a much higher chance of getting ur ass kicked.

At least Schlesinger's tables might give u a general idea. Pay attention to the underlying assumptions.

And don't forget I'm only the bull-sh*t theoretician so maybe these others can give u much better advice.

In the meantime, I'd just play to a $10K roll and enjoy it more. If u double it, take the excess and then do it again!

I think, ultimately, u enjoy beating the game more than how much money u actually win anyway.

Don't take the joy out of it.

 

[sagefr0g]

U got the first part right O Wise Frog lol. In general anyway lol.

I just hope he does know what he's doing since it sounds like he plays alot of different games alot of different ways and asks alot of questions that he doesn't know the answer to.

And considering using some system that even he says he doesn't understand.

That he's worried about compulsive gambling.

Basically why push it to the max? When will he take the excess profits rather than increase his unit when bankroll increases?

Does he change anything if DD goes to 66% rather than 50%. I don't know.

Having $1000 out on one hand? (assuming that's 4% of bankroll).

A thousand min unit lifetime bankroll? Perhaps for some games, maybe not for others.

So, if ur uncomfortable, maybe don't do it.

Nobody else thinks it's just possible he might be overbetting a bit from time to time?

So, Rhino, what do u think is your ROR for how u play each game that u play?

But I always worry too much so maybe that's the case here.

I'm on ur side Rhino!

i never caught on to all of that but i did think ER might be pushing the envelope a bit. i still believe he understands the concepts but as you point out rightly so i believe ER needs a simulator so that he can deal with the specifics.
also i like the idea of diversification of the risk as you mentioned Wall Street when considering ER is mentioning some discomfort.

 

[EasyRhino]

I'm just guessing but, assuming your playing to a $25K roll, why the heck would u risk that without know what the risk is?

I just did some struggling with Powersim. I wasn't able to get it to play nice with my implementation of KO, so I just went conservative and simmed it as hi-lo count with no indices.

Powersim's results for RoR (without bet resizing) are about 3% on either 6D or 2D, with my best estimate of simulating only modest wonging. On the upside, I'm willing to resize my bets continuously in the face of bankroll shrinkage. On the downside, powersim doesn't simulate any idiot plays I make.

It also calculated that if I was "stuck" on on a high-minimum DD game with bad penetration and only a 5x spread, that the Ror would be 20%!

You know what's most remarkable about this to me? The butt-simple rule of thumb of "make 1% of your bankroll your max bet" works pretty damn well for a semi-replenishable bankroll.

 

[sagefr0g]

I just did some struggling with Powersim. ......
...........
You know what's most remarkable about this to me? The butt-simple rule of thumb of "make 1% of your bankroll your max bet" works pretty damn well for a semi-replenishable bankroll.

i think you'll like the cv software when you do decide to bite the bullet. :cool2:

 

[Kasi]

You know what's most remarkable about this to me? The butt-simple rule of thumb of "make 1% of your bankroll your max bet" works pretty damn well for a semi-replenishable bankroll.

Hey good luck.

I guess u've gone from 3% to 20% ROR. However u may have defined "modest wonging" or "semi-replenishable bankroll".

Anyway, good luck.

I still hate that "1%" rule lol.

If this, in anyway, maybe changes for the better what u otherwise might have done, I'm happy.

Go slow, be sure of what u do. If ur not sure, just don't do it until u are.

 

[Kasi]

i think you'll like the cv software when you do decide to bite the bullet. :cool2:

It'd be the first thing I'd buy to protect a $25K roll.

Go ahead and blow that less than half-max bet on it. It'll last u a lifetime.

It's the easiest +EV play u'll ever make.

Of course I don't have it and never used it so take it with a grain of salt.

But I think Norm is a giant and man am I pissed he has chosen to not post here anymore. Not at him, the "others" that made it impossible.

Are there ANY counters here that actually use sims regularly? Or do most just buy a book maybe and play for exactly that game?

 

[EasyRhino]

I just realized that I haven't updated this thread in a while. Have been playing less than previously (3 of last 4 weekends, with shorter sessions). All three were losers, two trivially, and one about $1250.

One day at one place had a slots promo that turned things measurably +EV, so I put more coins through a video poker machine than I have before in my life.. probably almost $16,000 (I lost about $1600) And I play slow, so it took hours. It was getting crushingly boring, I really had to gut through the last hour or so. It was only afterwards that I computed my theoretical earnings per hour, and it was like $8/hr, with quite possibly too much variance. I decided that video poker is pretty stupid.

Other than that little experience, the month has been notable for it's boredom.

Lose a series of big bets? Don't really care. Get trapped in a cold shoe? Don't really care. Win some big hands? Crack a smile, but still don't care. Get a glare from the floor? Move to a different pit, but still no caring.

The overall sense of ennui was remarkable.

 

[jack.jackson]

Time for a break.

I just realized that I haven't updated this thread in a while. Have been playing less than previously (3 of last 4 weekends, with shorter sessions). All three were losers, two trivially, and one about $1250.

One day at one place had a slots promo that turned things measurably +EV, so I put more coins through a video poker machine than I have before in my life.. probably almost $16,000 (I lost about $1600) And I play slow, so it took hours. It was getting crushingly boring, I really had to gut through the last hour or so. It was only afterwards that I computed my theoretical earnings per hour, and it was like $8/hr, with quite possibly too much variance. I decided that video poker is pretty stupid.

Other than that little experience, the month has been notable for it's boredom.

Lose a series of big bets? Don't really care. Get trapped in a cold shoe? Don't really care. Win some big hands? Crack a smile, but still don't care. Get a glare from the floor? Move to a different pit, but still no caring.

The overall sense of ennui was remarkable.

Okay who are you? And what have you done with easy rhino. That just doesnt sound like the easy rhino i know.

Sounds like your burnin yourself out. After several hours of losing streaks you inexplicably realize just how much work is involved It then becomes a time a descision will have to made.
Either your willing to grind it out through all those losing streaks and work for it. Or you can just not care and allow your game to deteriorate.

You've came to far. Worked to hard. To have that sort of attitude. Ive been practicing for over ten years and would die for some of the oppurtinitys you guys have.
Just remember what clint eastwood said in highplains drifter. When things look bad and theres no hope. Its time to get mean!:devil: