New to counting, my story

[Hell'nBack]

Also, let me add this, many people use ROR but dont actually understand what that means even when they THINK they do as ill get into below.

ROR is the % chance of losing ALL of your bankroll. What about losing HALF of your bankroll? Because if you lose half, you better resize or youll probably go bust and now what? Are you ready to play smaller stakes at a lower win rate per hour to make up the loss? So what i recommend to people is find out what your true ROR is by NOT using your whole bankroll, but assuming you will lose HALF of it and then taking the ROR based off of half of your bankroll.

This way, you dont have to resize and deal with that psychological burden of having to bet less after losing at higher stakes, while also keeping a very low ROR, and it also gives you a much better long term idea of what your win rate will be since you can use a fixed bet size/spread throughout rather than resizing back and forth.

Many players split their banks into several parts; they have several reserve bankrolls to cope with negative flux. Instead of one large bankroll of $100K, they have split to 4 bankrolls of $25K each.

 

[Drake7]

Continued research and looked into several BJA stories and nearly every story they have shows a member starting on a very low bankroll.... also I tried playing tonight and tested wonging just a bit. I wonged out at a running count below 0 just to get a feel for it. Decent results for the night.

What do you guys think of these low bankroll stories on their site?

 

[SplitFaceDisaster]

Continued research and looked into several BJA stories and nearly every story they have shows a member starting on a very low bankroll.... also I tried playing tonight and tested wonging just a bit. I wonged out at a running count below 0 just to get a feel for it. Decent results for the night.

What do you guys think of these low bankroll stories on their site?

Those guys have and will admit that they got extremely lucky in the beginning to have started with a small bankroll, have a high risk of ruin, and to have run really well and not busted out.

 

[KewlJ]

Those guys have and will admit that they got extremely lucky in the beginning to have started with a small bankroll, have a high risk of ruin, and to have run really well and not busted out.

I am one of those guys. Started out with $4300. Looking back I have no idea how I didn't bust out somewhere along the line in the early going. I know of a number of current players that have a similar story of starting out very underfunded with a small bankroll. At first I was thinking how can there be a number of players with similar stories. My conclusion was that these are the stories we are hearing. But for every one of us, there are 100's of players that started out underfunded and went bust and most of them probably gave up the game right then, so we just aren't hearing those accounts.

 

[Hell'nBack]

I busted out several times playing with micro bankrolls. But I am pathologically stubborn and eventually hit an upswing. Years later I am still in the thick of it but have slacked off considerably due to health and eyesight problems

 

[Drake7]

UPDATE

so I did some more research and found plenty of cases of people making smaller bankrolls work. I'm trying a few different things. Took 500 out of my bankroll for a purchase and lost another 500 at the tables on Thursday.

Friday:

Night started slow, tried to wong out at a true -1 and ended up being down 600. Played 6 deck with a 1-12 spread at $10.
Tc1: 10, TC2: 25, TC3: 75, TC4: 100, TC5+: 120

Saturday:

Played a little 6 deck as well as double deck. Started out at 6 deck and was down 300 then decided to play double deck. Won back what I lost and was dead even to what I started with on Friday which was 3k. So +1100.

TC1: 25, TC2:50, TC3:75, TC4: 125, TC5:150

Sunday:

Played double deck again and ended up making 1k.
Decided to use a slightly higher spread.

TC1:25, TC2: 50, TC3: 75, TC4: 150, TC5+: 200

Today:

Went to a different casino and made another 1k in double deck. I upped my spreads again and this is the most risk I'm comfortable with at the moment. I'm aware this is a very high amount of risk

TC1: 25, TC2: 50, TC3:120, TC4:200, TC5+:300


So I'm sitting at 5100 for my total bankroll now. I really enjoy double deck and like playing with just me or 1-2 players. I wong out no matter what on double deck at a true -1 which DD has no mid shoe entry. I'm fine with the risk, bankroll is replenishable. I appreciate the advice and continue to love hearing the feedback and stories. I know my new spreads are a bit wonky, feel free to critique =)

 

[Midwest Player]

Wonging out would be a possibility I would think. If CVCX is telling me right, I could wong out at a true -1 with a 1-8 spread and have a 6% RoR. Very new to using this but please let me know if you see anything to change. Still trying to figure out how to optimize properly. As i said im fully aware no matter what i'm going to be playing with risk, and frankly that's ok with me for now.

View attachment 9057

Drake or anyone else, I'm curious how you got such a nice image of CVCX to post on the forum. Is there a way to export directly to a web site? Please tell us how you managed to post this image.

I don't know if you know this, but the custom bets in the column with the white background next to the optimal bet column with the green background can be changed. So for example by only playing plus one true count or greater the blue custom bet at the bottom of the screen will change. Risk of ruin will go down etc.

 

[Drake7]

Drake or anyone else, I'm curious how you got such a nice image of CVCX to post on the forum. Is there a way to export directly to a web site? Please tell us how you managed to post this image.

I don't know if you know this, but the custom bets in the column with the white background next to the optimal bet column with the green background can be changed. So for example by only playing plus one true count or greater the blue custom bet at the bottom of the screen will change. Risk of ruin will go down etc.

You can use the snip it tool to grab what you want then after just paste it into the website. Pretty simple. And yes I did know about the custom bets but thank you!

 

[DSchles]

UPDATE

so I did some more research and found plenty of cases of people making smaller bankrolls work. I'm trying a few different things. Took 500 out of my bankroll for a purchase and lost another 500 at the tables on Thursday.

Friday:

Night started slow, tried to wong out at a true -1 and ended up being down 600. Played 6 deck with a 1-12 spread at $10.
Tc1: 10, TC2: 25, TC3: 75, TC4: 100, TC5+: 120

Saturday:

Played a little 6 deck as well as double deck. Started out at 6 deck and was down 300 then decided to play double deck. Won back what I lost and was dead even to what I started with on Friday which was 3k. So +1100.

TC1: 25, TC2:50, TC3:75, TC4: 125, TC5:150

Sunday:

Played double deck again and ended up making 1k.
Decided to use a slightly higher spread.

TC1:25, TC2: 50, TC3: 75, TC4: 150, TC5+: 200

Today:

Went to a different casino and made another 1k in double deck. I upped my spreads again and this is the most I'm comfortable with at the moment. I'm aware this is a very high amount of risk

TC1: 25, TC2: 50, TC3:120, TC4:200, TC5+:300


So I'm sitting at 5100 for my total bankroll now. I really enjoy double deck and like playing with just me or 1-2 players. I wong out no matter what on double deck at a true -1 which DD has no mid shoe entry. I'm fine with the risk, bankroll is replenishable. I appreciate the advice and continue to love hearing the feedback and stories. I know my nee spreads are a bit wonky, feel free to critique =)

Don't go from 50 to 120. Silly to add to your bet like that. Go 50-100-200-300. MUCH more natural to keep parlaying.

Don

 

[Drake7]

Update:

Played on lunch today. Had one hour. Missed out on an extra 100 due to not calculating TC properly once but ended +900 in 30 minutes. Bankroll is sitting at 6k now. Will go back tonight most likely.

 

[JohnCrover]

I am one of those guys. Started out with $4300. Looking back I have no idea how I didn't bust out somewhere along the line in the early going. I know of a number of current players that have a similar story of starting out very underfunded with a small bankroll. At first I was thinking how can there be a number of players with similar stories. My conclusion was that these are the stories we are hearing. But for every one of us, there are 100's of players that started out underfunded and went bust and most of them probably gave up the game right then, so we just aren't hearing those accounts.

I suspect that many of these success stories seem on smaller bank rolls are slightly misleading because many of the people who succeeded wouldn't have given up if they lost their initial bank roll. They would have took money from their piggy bank and give it another shot. Just because someone starts with let's say 1k and never dips below it doesn't mean their BR is actually 1K if they were going to take another 1k if they lost it as an example.
Edit: I would like to apologize to Don for all of the egregious spelling errors in this post. lol

 

[Drake7]

Second update of today:

Used the same spread and played double deck, started with 500 and ended at 1650 so net 1150, bankroll is at 7.15k

 

[KewlJ]

Ok, some comments about this thread. First when I comment last week (back on page 1) my focus was on the ramp, in particular that initial first jump, similarly to what Don commented on. Admittedly, I sort of glossed over the RoR (very high) based on the information provided. And THAT is a very big thing to have glossed over. Luckily some other members like BoSox were all over that, sounding the alarm.

On the numbers you have mention, you are severely overbetting your bankroll. The rule is that anything more than 2x Kelly guarantees you will go broke. Now I am not a math guy, so I don't know exactly how that works. I do know some players that have used the hail Mary approach and been okay and that seems to fly in the face of the 2 x Kelly = ruin, rule. But as you are playing right now, you are almost assuredly on a path to go broke.

Now in a PM you mentioned replenishable bankroll. I hope there is no problem with me mentioning that. That too changes the equation about what you are betting. But for now, I think you need to take a step back and refigure things based on where you currently are and the good fortune that you have experienced. Take that good fortune and this currently bigger bankroll and start playing to a more reasonable RoR, so this exercise has a chance to turn out differently (better) than your last go round. Sorry, if that is not what you want to hear, but that is my advice at the moment.

 

[Drake7]

Ok, some comments about this thread. First when I comment last week (back on page 1) my focus was on the ramp, in particular that initial first jump, similarly to what Don commented on. Admittedly, I sort of glossed over the RoR (very high) based on the information provided. And THAT is a very big thing to have glossed over. Luckily some other members like BoSox were all over that, sounding the alarm.

On the numbers you have mention, you are severely overbetting your bankroll. The rule is that anything more than 2x Kelly guarantees you will go broke. Now I am not a math guy, so I don't know exactly how that works. I do know some players that have used the hail Mary approach and been alright and that seems to fly in the face of the 2 x Kelly = ruin, rule. But as you are playing right now, you are almost assuredly on a path to go broke.

Now in a PM you mentioned replenishable bankroll. I hope there is no problem with me mentioning that. That too changes the equation about what you are betting. But for now, I think you need to take a step back and refigure things based on where you currently are and the good fortune that you have experienced. Take that good fortune and this currently bigger bankroll and start playing to a more reasonable RoR, so this exercise has a chance to turn out differently (better) than your last go round. Sorry, if that is not what you want to hear, but that is my advice at the moment.

Thank you for this post. Well written, hit valid points and got your message across without putting me down. Mentioning the replenishable was completely fine. Realistically at this moment I have 10k total I'd be willing to risk. I really enjoy double deck and it seems like a much more reliable game to me but I do see the concerns. I'm gonna mess with cvcx later and see what numbers I come up with bit I believe there should be a way to make the risk tolerable on a 25 minimum for me.

 

[BoSox]

Drake7, I am going to warn now not to play those double deck games too often, as they are watched much more closely than shoe games. Some places set them up purposely as traps to lure in AP's.

 

[Drake7]

Drake7, I am going to warn now not to play those double deck games too often, as they are watched much more closely than shoe games. Some places set them up purposely as traps to lure in AP's.

I appreciate it BoSox. I recently started going to a new casino near me and played double deck with those spreads and definitely got the vibe I was being watched. Pitboss would do anything to try to keep a conversation, making comments etc. Waiting to go there for a bit. I really enjoy that game over 6 deck but can definitely see the downside

 

[Drake7]

Updated CVCX numbers, 10k bankroll which is what I currently can risk. Please let me know what you guys think! First this is 'wonging out at a true -1'. Not exactly but, i think i can rely on that for a close comparison. I believe this is as conservative as i can play on double deck...

 

[Drake7]

This is the part I don't understand Kewl, this is a snippit from BJA website. I've gotten alot of info from there and thinking of getting a membership. Mostly because it seems they've started out similar to how i have. Any responses? I'm currently ~20% according to this....

 

[DSchles]

This is the part I don't understand Kewl, this is a snippit from BJA website. I've gotten alot of info from there and thinking of getting a membership. Mostly because it seems they've started out similar to how i have. Any responses? I'm currently ~20% according to this....


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It's my opinion that if you play DD thinking you can somehow leave systematically, as opposed to very occasionally, on negative counts (where are you going?) and you spread 1-12, you will eventually be thrown out of every casino you play in.

Don

 

[Midwest Player]

You can use the snip it tool to grab what you want then after just paste it into the website. Pretty simple. And yes I did know about the custom bets but thank you!

Drake, I need more help on this snip it tool. I know how to snip it okay, but it won't paste for me. I tried doing a paste onto Norm's site, but won't work. Any more detailed instructions appreciated. I suppose I could save the snip it as an image to my computer and then upload it, but would like to know how you do it.

PS. I agree with what everyone else said. Your are still over betting. A 1-12 spread on double deck is just asking for a backoff. Also your sim shows only one player. Pretty hard to wong in and out if your are the only one playing. You now have an acceptable bankroll. Take it slow. 8 months of blackjack play is not enough experience.