Oscars Grind? Considering givin it a shot

[Baseball John]

BJ is a game particularly unsuited for progressions systems.

If you are going to use them, you're better off using them in another game.
An even-money game.

You just never see much analysis of using these systems in BJ, do you?

Can't imagine why that may be.

"Successful progressive betting schemes require roughly similar amounts of wins and losses, making blackjack particularly unsuited for progressions"

"Since progressions depend on some uniformity of bet and some uniformity of wins and loses blackjack just does not fit progressive betting."

"And a gauge to determine these numbers is to look at an even game with the knowledge the real game against the casino will be slightly worse."

"Blackjack offers good odds with proper strategy, but to use the Martingale with blackjack you need a bankroll that's four times as large as normal".

Tell the guys who wrote that what argumentative lil bitches they are.

This is my last comment to your ranting.
1. I never called you "argumentative lil bitch" but Shadroch wasn't far off.

2. I never mentioned Martingale. Anyone who read my comments will know that.

3. Your opinion, "progressions depend on some uniformity of bet and some uniformity of wins and loses and blackjack just does not fit progressive betting."
I'm NOT TALKING about anything but Oscar's Grind.

4. A push affects absolutely nothing in Blackjack except providing an opportunity for the player to see more cards. While you don't make any money from that hand, it is a small positive in the player's favor. How can that hurt a progression?
I consider it a push in Craps when the dice leave the table or in Roulette when the ball flies across the casino! Do you think Oscar picked up his chips and went home sulking about a push when the dice left the table?

5. Your statement of "Successful progressive betting schemes require roughly similar amounts of wins and losses, making blackjack particularly unsuited for progressions". SAYS WHO ???
As a player you want to win over the long term; not a particular hand or small series of hands. Blackjack with the House Advantage I used in my sample (-.4%) is about as good as it gets in the casino's I frequent.

6. Your statement of "You just never see much analysis of using these systems in BJ, do you? Can't imagine why that may be.
I gave you a sample of 110K hands. You chose not to believe it or ignored the results. The small house advantage is exactly why blackjack worked in this situation of a 110K hand sample.

Again my results were:
110K hands played (excluding pushes)
Strict BS followed
15,000 sequences.... each one finished with at least 1 unit win.
Sequences lasted from 1 hand to over 600.
Largest loss was 8,766 units.
Total units won after 110K hands was 22,000 units.
Total profit of 1.5% (based on total wagered)
Average bet for all 110K hands was 14.2 units
Average length of session was 6-8 hands.

I am not claiming to have invented anything, nor do I have an agenda. I am not selling anything or promoting anything.

Kasi, I will not as you suggest, "roll over in my grave if someone tweaks what I have said and is successful." I truly hope someone uses this info to either make money or save money because they now have FACTS which encourage/scare them enough to use or not use "Oscar's Grind."

I have read much about Oscar's system and decided to test it for myself without prejudice. I participated in this conversation only to share info about my knowledge of OG.

 

[Boatman117]

interest ....

Hi guys ... and gals, if and when applicable ...

I have been following this thread with a lot of interest ..

OG was what I first started with at home on the simulators ...both here and at Wiz and Bodog ...

Liked it .... lots ... but every now and then it just went in the basement BAD !!!

Knew i needed some limits and strategy ...

Anyway I joined this forum and became interested in counting and was very impressed with all the math and reasoning that goes into Basic Strategy, and the bankroll formulas, etc.

So I learned BS. And I learned to count. Good. I practice 2-3 hours a day, almost always on the trainer here.

But still OG tugs at the corner of my mind ....

Cause I liked it a lot ...

So I am just throwing this out there for some replies ....

From some of you people that practice it regularly ....

I am thinking of using my counting (ko) along with OG ...

Mainly for the Insurance benefit ... which is the single best one I think ....

But also for the playing indices ....

Especially some negative ones so that I am not doubling and spliting when its not to my advantage to do so ....

It seems like a couple of bad doubles and/or splits at the wrong time can really sink me in OG .... especially in a down series ....

Using the count to at least make the right moves here might help a lot I am thinking ...

Anyway any and all comments will be appreciated or any PM's as well ...

I know there is lots I dont know .... but I am teachable and interested ...

Thanks for reading and responding ....

 

[Kasi]

essentially what your saying is you can judge a games suitibility for a progression by how close it is to a coin flip sorta thing?

I'm not saying it. What's in quotation marks above are what are people wrote.

But that is exactly what they are saying. Or exactly what I think they are saying

 

[Kasi]

What the fig does the statement about the Martingale have to do with this? Blackjack isn't particulary suited for using nuclear weapons, as well. big deal.
When you eliminate the pushs, BJ is just about the same as roulette.
Why do you harp so much on pushs somehow changing the equation? They do nothing but help the player. I love getting five or six pushs in a row, with a big bet out and the pitboss hoovering nearby. This is a negative to you how?

Lets say you invented a gambling progression and after many years it became widely known as yours. Some unknown comes along, takes your foundation, fine tunes it slightly and proclaims it to be his own. How would you feel? I don't play Oskars Grind exactly the way he did, but the only reason I play this way at all is because of the hours and months he put into it.
Therefore, I honor and acknowledge his pioneering work by saying I play a modified version of Oscars Grind. I'm sorry that gets your panties all bunched up, but thats the way it is.

The Martingdale stuff was just intended to show, since it's such an extreme example of a betting system, that it would require more roll. OG is also a progressive system, just alot more mild. Implying it would still need more roll than normal, just not as much more roll.

When you eliminate the pushes in BJ, you will have a win say 46% of the time and a loss 54% of the time. In single-zero roulette, 48.6% of the time will be a win. In craps pass-line, 49.3% of the time (I think).

The reduced chances of a W make for fewer and shorter win streaks and more and longer loss streaks compared to roulette or craps. That's a bad thing for progression systems.

Anyway, you want to call it OG for BJ, I capitulate lol. Glad it's working for you.

I am interested in whatever your modifications are. It'd be fun to maybe compare them. But, for that, I guess I'd need alot of "rules" to follow, assume a starting unit roll and see how often it achieved it's goal.

Hope we're cool with each other.

 

[shadroch]

Here are my modifications, for perhaps the tenth time.

Ist round- 1 Unit A Win and you bank the unit and repeat round one. A loss and you move on to the 2nd Round.
2nd round- 1 unit. A win and you go to back to round 1. A loss takes you to the 3rd rd.
3rd round- you are down 2, betting 1. If you win, you are down a unit.Rather than up your bet following a win, you keep it the same, playing to break even. This reduces your variance very much.So you are either down 1, betting 1 if you win round 3, or you are down 3 betting 1 if you lost.
My modification reduces your wins because many sequences end in you breaking even, but it also greatly reduces the bankroll needed to play it.
From my experiance, I'm trading spending more time at the tables for lower volitility and smaller bankroll . Playing for the tie ends sequences much quicker than playing for a 1 unit win, and keeps your losses smaller within the sequence.

 

[Kasi]

This is my last comment to your ranting.
1. I never called you "argumentative lil bitch" but Shadroch wasn't far off.
2. I never mentioned Martingale. Anyone who read my comments will know that.
3. Your opinion, "progressions depend on some uniformity of bet and some uniformity of wins and loses and blackjack just does not fit progressive betting."
I'm NOT TALKING about anything but Oscar's Grind.
4. A push affects absolutely nothing in Blackjack except providing an opportunity for the player to see more cards. While you don't make any money from that hand, it is a small positive in the player's favor. How can that hurt a progression?
I consider it a push in Craps when the dice leave the table or in Roulette when the ball flies across the casino! Do you think Oscar picked up his chips and went home sulking about a push when the dice left the table?
5. Your statement of "Successful progressive betting schemes require roughly similar amounts of wins and losses, making blackjack particularly unsuited for progressions". SAYS WHO ???
As a player you want to win over the long term; not a particular hand or small series of hands. Blackjack with the House Advantage I used in my sample (-.4%) is about as good as it gets in the casino's I frequent.

6. Your statement of "You just never see much analysis of using these systems in BJ, do you? Can't imagine why that may be.
I gave you a sample of 110K hands. You chose not to believe it or ignored the results. The small house advantage is exactly why blackjack worked in this situation of a 110K hand sample.

Again my results were:
110K hands played (excluding pushes)
Strict BS followed
15,000 sequences.... each one finished with at least 1 unit win.
Sequences lasted from 1 hand to over 600.
Largest loss was 8,766 units.
Total units won after 110K hands was 22,000 units.
Total profit of 1.5% (based on total wagered)
Average bet for all 110K hands was 14.2 units
Average length of session was 6-8 hands.

I am not claiming to have invented anything, nor do I have an agenda. I am not selling anything or promoting anything.

Kasi, I will not as you suggest, "roll over in my grave if someone tweaks what I have said and is successful." I truly hope someone uses this info to either make money or save money because they now have FACTS which encourage/scare them enough to use or not use "Oscar's Grind."

I have read much about Oscar's system and decided to test it for myself without prejudice. I participated in this conversation only to share info about my knowledge of OG.

As to 1 - sorry it came off that way.

As to 3 - it happens to be my opinion but I didn't write was in quotes.
OG is a progression system.

As to 4 - see my post to Shad.

As to 5 - the same guy who said the other thing. Don't really understand the second sentence. Progressions are designed to come out ahead in the short-term with a high probility of success trading off fewer but larger losses.

I'm very interested in your results. And I very much respect the effort it took to record those results.

Most betting systems make the same assumptions at the beginning of each sequence and include rules on what to do when roll is getting low. Also they assume beginning each sequence with the same starting roll.

Like your're down 20 units with 20 units left of 200 starting unit roll at the top of the squence. The hand calls for a double. You can't double because you have only 20 units left. You have to protect the progression at the expense of playing BJ at reduced EV. But you can see how a 220 unit starting roll will effect the chances of succeeding in a sequence compared to a 200 unit roll.

Maybe BJG (tht's the Baseball John Grind lol) says bet the same as the previous hand after a loss. You're down 10 units, last hand was a loss so you bet 10 units again. But the BJ hand calls for you doubling and splitting 4 times. Now you're down 90 units. So you bet 10 units again since it was a loss, you win. Now OG might call for 11 units, etc. But a bad hand like that can be tough to overcome.

Believe it or not, I'm actually on yours, Shad, Thunder's side. I'd love to know more about how a modified OG effects BJ.

I'd love to play 5000 hands of BJ being able to bet exactly as you would play the same 5000 hands with the same starting roll of whatever.

In a perfect world, all OG players would play the same 5000 spins of roulette exactly the same way starting each series with the same number of units, right?

To do what I would do the way I would want to do it, I need to be a betting robot

 

[Kasi]

But still OG tugs at the corner of my mind ....

Cause I liked it a lot ...

Mine too lol.

All I can tell you, meanwhile back on the unmodified OG farm, lol, always starting each sequence or whatever you want to call the series of bets that results in achieving the goal with a 500 unit roll, at a single-zero roulette table, using the simulated resullts of same as published by the Wiz,

I won 200 times in row (200 units) after spin 1063.
I won 300 times in row (300 units) after spin 1733.
I won 400 times in row (400 units) after spin 2496.
I won 500 times in row (500 units) after spin 3148.

I'm guessing maybe I should lose my 500 units once every 1300 to 1600 spins.
Big emphasis on guess. lol.

So, I hate this being "lucky" stuff having survived 3100 spins.

I hope I lose the 500 units sometime soon so I feel better about my prediction :grin:

I am beginning to wonder what Oscar is supposed to do when he is about to lose his starting roll.

Down to last 30 units. Down 470 units on the sequence. OG calls for a 50 unit bet. Do I stop betting because I cannot make the next called-for bet and unable to follow the system? Should it count as a losing series at that point even though I have 30 units of roll lleft? Do I bet the last 30 units? If I do and win, I'm down 440 units on the sequence. Should I go back and bet the originally callled for 50 units now because I can or bet 31 units now because it's 1 more unit than last winning bet?

Since he never lost maybe it was something he never had to worry about :grin:

It's official - just another crappy progression system whose rules I can't follow :whip:

 

[Kasi]

Here are my modifications, for perhaps the tenth time.

Ist round- 1 Unit A Win and you bank the unit and repeat round one. A loss and you move on to the 2nd Round.
2nd round- 1 unit. A win and you go to back to round 1. A loss takes you to the 3rd rd.
3rd round- you are down 2, betting 1. .

Here are my questions, for perhaps the 11th time.

Round 1. Bet 1 unit. Lose 8 units.

Round 2 Bet 1 unit. Win. Down 7 units. Go back to round 1. Bet 1 unit again. Win again. Down 6 units.

I'm supposed to bank the unit I just won while still being down 6 units and repeat round 1 becasue the sequence is over?

I'm supposed to bet 8 units on the 2nd round because I am down 8 units?

Stated goal is what again? Is it maybe "Win at least one-half unit or more in a series"? Is that when the SG for BJ will repeat it's set of betting rules?

Maybe this is a no DAS game? Maybe re-splits limited to 2 or 3?

Take it from "Round 1. Bet 1 unit. Lose 8 units." assuming DAS and re-split to 4 hands if you want.

 

[shadroch]

I've never lost 8 times my original bet in a round. I'd love to see the odds of that occuring.
In any event.....Scenerio A
Rd 1 bet 1, lost 8. I'm down 8
Rd 2 bet 1. If I win the sequence continues with Rd 3- betting 2, down 7.
If I win, Rd 4, betting 3,down 5. should I win that, it's on to rd 5, betting 2,down 2. Should I win,I'm even and the sequence is over. Won 4 hands, lost 8 hands, broke even.

OR Scenerio B
Rd 2- bet 1, lose. Rd 3-betting 1, down 9. Win, and it goes the way the sequence above went. Lose and Rd 4-still betting 1, and I'm down 10.
Rd 5 I win, with a BJ. Rd 6- I'm betting 2 and I'm down 9, having given that pesky 1/2 unit to the dealer as a tip. I get an 11 and DD. Winning. Rd 7, I'm betting 3( raised my bet one unit)and I'm down 5. I lose. Rd 8,betting 3,down 8. I win. Rd 9 I'm betting 4, down 5. I win. Rd 10- Because I'm now only down 1, thats all I bet.
Either I win and start a new sequence or I lose and its Rd 11, betting 1, down 2.

In both scenerios,I won less than the average won/loss ratio, but didn't lose a dime. What would the results have been if I were flatbetting? Were I to have been flatbetting and lost 8 bets on the first hand, what are the chances I'd have been even after 5 hands, as in scenerio A, or even ten hands as in scenerio B.

Now, if I was on round 9 of scenerio B, betting 4 units and thru splits and doubles ended up losing 8X my bet, or 32 units, I would indeed be up **** creek. Down 36 units and betting 4, it would take me at least thirty hands to get back to even.

 

[ohbehave]

Thunder: Do you ever put in a stop-loss after you get up a certain number of units?

 

[eatenbyalgae]

Night 3: lost 200, but it was more my stupidity than anything else. I was getting impatient because all the 5 dollar tables were being hogged... so i went to a 10 dollar table... and didnt bring a big enough bankroll, i brought 200

Night 4: won 100, deepest count was -7.

ohbehave, i use a -20 unit sequence stop loss... but i also dont have a bankroll that is thousands to see OG through

 

[Kasi]

've never lost 8 times my original bet in a round. I'd love to see the odds of that occuring.

It is very rare even in a re-split to 4 hands DAS game. 1 in millions I'd guess.
Just a way to get you to explain what you would do in that rare scenario.

In any event.....Scenerio A
Rd 1 bet 1, lost 8. I'm down 8
Rd 2 bet 1. If I win the sequence continues with Rd 3- betting 2, down 7.
If I win, Rd 4, betting 3,down 5. should I win that, it's on to rd 5, betting 2,down 2. Should I win,I'm even and the sequence is over.

It worked lol because now I'm beginning to understand what the SG goal is So thank you for hanging in there and putting up with my crap. Beautiful things can grow from that. The more crap in the soil, the better the flower :grin:

I see now, I think? - do I have it right? - the goal of the SG (Shadroch Grind) is to only at least break even as opposed to a goal of winning, say, "more than zero" units in a series? That's cool. If so, I actually like it, believe it or not. A minimum goal of breaking even in a series is much more conservative than a goal of winning 1 unit. It's actually the goal my "voodoo" crap has always had. And, generally speaking, still has.

I assume the SG allows for wins of greater then "breaking even" in a series becasue I assume if you had won 8 units in the first round above, a new series would begin with same starting roll as in first round, in effect, putting the 8 units in your pocket?

Ignore the following mini-argumentative rant but... at least consider how different such a goal is compared to a goal of winning 1 unit as in OG.

Won 4 hands, lost 8 hands, broke even.

No big deal. But I'd say either you won 4 of 5 "rounds" or 4 of 8 "hands" if you insist on that definition of a "hand". The traditional ~43% win, ~48% lose, ~9% tie ratios are based on a "round". With "win" meaning any net win on the round and "lose" meaning any net loss for the round.

OR Scenerio B
Rd 2- bet 1, lose. Rd 3-betting 1, down 9. Win, and it goes the way the sequence above went. Lose and Rd 4-still betting 1, and I'm down 10.
Rd 5 I win, with a BJ. Rd 6- I'm betting 2 and I'm down 9, having given that pesky 1/2 unit to the dealer as a tip. I get an 11 and DD. Winning. Rd 7, I'm betting 3( raised my bet one unit)and I'm down 5. I lose. Rd 8,betting 3,down 8. I win. Rd 9 I'm betting 4, down 5. I win. Rd 10- Because I'm now only down 1, thats all I bet.
Either I win and start a new sequence or I lose and its Rd 11, betting 1, down 2.

You just had to throw that half-unit tip to the dealer on a BJ, didn't you :grin:

Hopefully you don't mean the SG always turns a BJ into a 1 to 1 payoff.
I know you don't.
So assuming you don't really mean that, I'm just going to assume you mean maybe meaning you'd still bet 1 unit on Rd 10 even though you were only a half-unit-down if you had not tipped the dealer?

In both scenerios,I won less than the average won/loss ratio, but didn't lose a dime.

Actually in Scenario A you won 4 of 5 rounds, greatly exceeding the expected w/l ratio. In Scenario B you won 5 of 10 rounds, also exceeding expected number of wins.

No matter, I only ask from the point of view of potentially applying what you do to the w/l/t results of BJ hands I already have.

I think I have enough, for the first time, and I'm sorry it took so long to understand it the SG in enough detail to be able to possibly do that.

In summary, am I far off in assuming

Goal is to win "more than 0 units in a series"?
Or is goal "at least break even but winning more than 0 units is OK too". So if, say, 1.5 units down in a sequence and the SG calls for a big bet, I should bet 2 units so I will, worst case, win "more than 0 units" if I win? Or bet 1.5 units so I will be even if I win.

Other than that, I think I get it - base next bet on the initial bet of the previous round, as in OG, based on whether last "round" finished in a net loss or a net win. Don't make next bet based on how many total units one may have lost or won on the previous round. If it finished in a net tie, always bet the same amount as you initially did on that round.

Guess I'll also assume you never sacrifice BS for the progression's sake? Except maybe when roll is low and you can longer double or split if called for- I think you pretty much have to then being a system and all?

I know that sounds crazy but a progression must assume "play until goal is achieved" or until roll is lost. Or some set of stuff to do when roll gets low, say when SG calls for a big bet, you do it but no longer can double and/or split after the hand is dealt.

I know that's nuts but it's another one of those reasons why progressions sort of suck for BJ in general and why more units of roll might be called for to achieve same success rate kind of thing.

How many units do you usually start with or how many units would you like me to assume for a starting roll? If indeed you want me to at all lol.

It's just an academic exercise to me - it's not like I actually think you've played 1000 rounds of BJ exactly according to whatever rules we assume here always beginning each series with the same starting unit roll :grin:

Let alone playing the exact same game of BJ with the exact same set of rules dealt to the exact same pen level. That's obviously, while ideal for a an anlysis, is just not practical in the real world lol.

It also doesn't matter because, when in doubt, I'll assume something anyway. I like the idea of "at least breaking even" as a goal even if it calls for a 1.5 unit bet. Even a half-unit bet but starting roll will be in whole units lol. So, I'll probably do it anyway just for my own curiosity. Maybe with a 500 unit starting roll since that's what I'm using in OG with the roulette stuff.

Maybe it would help me decide which would be a better game to use 500 units with

 

[Kasi]

Still Grinding away :grin:

After winning 595 times in a row, I lost my 500 unit starting roll in the 596th series.

Made me feel a little better I lost. I was getting worried.

Currently, I've won 750 out of 751 serieses. That can't be the plural lmao.
A 99.87% success rate seems too high to me but I'll take it lol. I'm expecting more like 99.5% or 99.6%. Guess there's always that curve lol. Just wish I knew which side of it I'm on.

I still think I've been a little on the "lucky" side so far, not that my opinion matters lol.

Total spins 4943. Total units bet 21545.

I would have lost an initial 200 unit roll 3 times by now, a 100 unit roll 6 times. A 300 unit roll twice.

Maybe not the worst way to have spent 141 hours at a full roulette table lol.

Especially maybe when consideriing it's a game with over 5 times the HA than in BJ.

The losing series lasted 137 spins. I bet 3144 units in it. I won 55 times and lost 82 times.

I chose to bet remaining roll at the end even though OG called for a bigger bet. Fortunately I lost it so I don't have to worry about what I was supposed bet next had I won.

 

[Thunder]

Thunder: Do you ever put in a stop-loss after you get up a certain number of units?

Well I always use a 40x initial bet stop loss to protect me from getting in too deep a hole. I generally will leave the table too when I make 40x my initial bet.

 

[Thunder]

Night 3: lost 200, but it was more my stupidity than anything else. I was getting impatient because all the 5 dollar tables were being hogged... so i went to a 10 dollar table... and didnt bring a big enough bankroll, i brought 200

Night 4: won 100, deepest count was -7.

ohbehave, i use a -20 unit sequence stop loss... but i also dont have a bankroll that is thousands to see OG through

EatenbyAlgae,
Yeah you should never use it at a $10 table without having $800 on you minimum. You are almost guaranteed to get wiped out if you only bring $200 as you unfortunately saw.

 

[miplet]

Still Grinding away :grin:
...

Currently, I've won 750 out of 751 serieses. That can't be the plural lmao.
A 99.87% success rate seems too high to me but I'll take it lol. I'm expecting more like 99.5% or 99.6%. Guess there's always that curve lol. Just wish I knew which side of it I'm on.
..

99.2 if you must know :+)
http://www.miplet.net/oscarsgrind2.php?bankrollx=500&tablemax=500&maxrounds=10000&trials=1000000&winodds=18&totodds=38
Note: I wrote this program a year ago. Who knows if I messed up somethere in the program. There may be errors.

 

[Kasi]

99.2 if you must know :+)
http://www.miplet.net/oscarsgrind2.php?bankrollx=500&tablemax=500&maxrounds=10000&trials=1000000&winodds=18&totodds=38
Note: I wrote this program a year ago. Who knows if I messed up somethere in the program. There may be errors.

Thanks Miplet. Very much appreciated.

Where the heck you've been?

Is there any chance the rate you state above is based on a double-zero roulette game?

If so, I'm using a single-zero roulette game for whatever the heck it is for whatever the heck I'm doing lmao.

Edited to add - I didn't see before how you could submit a query. I changed the bottom number to 37 and it got a 99.58% success rate. Was that the right thing to do for a single-zero roulette game?

Would I just stick in 244 and 495 in the bottom 2 boxes for a craps pass-line bet?

Great program.

Anyway it work for BJ? Without modification?

Can't thank you enough. You don't know how painful it's been for me playing 6000 spins and all along knowing I really was only guessing at what to expect, doomed at the end to just wonder whether I was lucky or unlucky.

Even voodoo has its expectations

 

[Kasi]

Still Grinding

Have won 950 out of 951 series to date in 6287 spins.

 

[eatenbyalgae]

EatenbyAlgae,
Yeah you should never use it at a $10 table without having $800 on you minimum. You are almost guaranteed to get wiped out if you only bring $200 as you unfortunately saw.

i know better now... i have over 400 in my BR for 5 dollar tables...

but i only take 200 because that is the stop loss i use for one visit to the casino

i do need to learn patience though... 5 dollar tables are hard to get on.

Are the odds any different in craps using cards? dice arent allowed in CA

 

[sagefr0g]

tryed OG this evening on one of those single 0 Bally video roulette machines.
nice low min bet, twenty five cents. ended up 12 units after grinding for about twenty minutes. just was betting on red.
not sure how legit those machines are.