Oscars Grind? Considering givin it a shot

[Kasi]

tryed OG this evening on one of those single 0 Bally video roulette machines.
nice low min bet, twenty five cents. ended up 12 units after grinding for about twenty minutes. just was betting on red.
not sure how legit those machines are.

Cool. Exactly what OG is designed for.

The only way to know how "legit" the machines are is to record every spin and see if the results are nuts. You record - I'll tell you if they are "nuts" lmao.

Since you are at a video machine, you can actually do that.

If you're really worried about it, just record results of other people's spins. Won't cost a dime. If a few thousand spins pass the tests, it's probably "fair".

The other thing is to commit a starting roll with each series. A 100 unit roll will not succeed as often as a 500 unit roll. Like I won 249 times in a row with a 100 unit roll, as it happened. (better than expected). 595 times in a row with a 500 unit roll (as it happened).

What's the max bet of the machine? If it's at least $25, don't worry about - OG will never call for a 100 unit bet with a 100-500 unit roll.

If you had not won 12 series in a row, I'd be really worried. I almost don't care how low the roll you were willing to commit was.

With a committment of $2500, I guarantee you will die a winner :grin:

Wait - I forgot you're already an old coot. Make it $1250 lmao.

It's just like that all that AP stuff with it's own predictable results over how long with how much. Requires the same disciplined betting with the same committment to losing all your roll. The only difference is it's a 100% "lifetime" ROR game. But can be a 1 in 2500 chance (whatever you choose it to be) of losing it all on the next series in exchange for winning 1 unit.

In other words a great way to take $25 or $50 and have a very high chance of coming out ahead over the next few hours at a 25 cent single-zero roulette machine. Keep in mind an avg series length might be 6-7 spins if you're worried about hourly stuff.

And then there is craps to consider........

In voodoo, it's not about the infinite "long-run", it's about the next 7000 spins or 7000 rolls of the dice etc.

How long will you be playing anyway kind of question.

I'll send you my sheet on what I've been doing tomorrow.

Don't get me wrong - if you play 7,000,000 spins you will experience the -2.7% HA.

You just play 5000 spins things are looking up for not only finishing in the black but also finishing way above EV.

 

[sagefr0g]

...The only way to know how "legit" the machines are is to record every spin and see if the results are nuts. You record - I'll tell you if they are "nuts" lmao.

ok, yeah, well i just read something about how some payoffs on the numbers might be less than a regular roulette table, sort of thing.
but the red and black do pay even money.

What's the max bet of the machine?...

not sure, i'll have to check next time i hit that joint again. but it does have a feature so you could jump the min bet from 25 cents to higher denominations, not sure how it goes, probably 25 cents, 50 cents to a dollar. but max bets, i dunno.

Wait - I forgot you're already an old coot. Make it $1250 lmao.

watch it i'll get Ken on you.
besides i know you know what a forty-niner is.:laugh:

...
I'll send you my sheet on what I've been doing tomorrow.
...

thank you.

 

[shadroch]

Next time, use OG and bet both Red and Black. Treat each color independent of the other- ie, you'll be doing two seperate grinds. Obviously,you can't quit both on the same spin.

 

[sagefr0g]

Next time, use OG and bet both Red and Black. Treat each color independent of the other- ie, you'll be doing two seperate grinds. Obviously,you can't quit both on the same spin.

can't quit both on the same spin?
maybe you mean can't bet both on the same spin?
help me i'm young and easily confused. lol
but anyway, what would be the point of betting both colors? trying to get two grinds into one sit down?

 

[Thunder]

that's pretty good

 

[Thunder]

i know better now... i have over 400 in my BR for 5 dollar tables...

but i only take 200 because that is the stop loss i use for one visit to the casino

i do need to learn patience though... 5 dollar tables are hard to get on.

Are the odds any different in craps using cards? dice arent allowed in CA

Eatenby Algae,
You should take $400 per trip. I've been stopped out with $200 within the first 30 mins but then after that I would come back strong.

 

[miplet]

Thanks Miplet. Very much appreciated.

Where the heck you've been?

I was without internet from June until October, and then I just didn't read the voodoo forum as my time is limited

Is there any chance the rate you state above is based on a double-zero roulette game?

Yes

If so, I'm using a single-zero roulette game for whatever the heck it is for whatever the heck I'm doing lmao.

Edited to add - I didn't see before how you could submit a query. I changed the bottom number to 37 and it got a 99.58% success rate. Was that the right thing to do for a single-zero roulette game?

yes

Would I just stick in 244 and 495 in the bottom 2 boxes for a craps pass-line bet?

yes

Great program.

Thanks :+)

Anyway it work for BJ? Without modification?

Can't thank you enough. You don't know how painful it's been for me playing 6000 spins and all along knowing I really was only guessing at what to expect, doomed at the end to just wonder whether I was lucky or unlucky.

Even voodoo has its expectations

You could probibly do something for BJ. But with so many ways to win or lose something other than one bet (splits, double downs, bjs, surenders) it might take awhile.

 

[shadroch]

can't quit both on the same spin?
maybe you mean can't bet both on the same spin?
help me i'm young and easily confused. lol
but anyway, what would be the point of betting both colors? trying to get two grinds into one sit down?

Sit at the table.
Bet one unit on both.
If Red wins, the red sequence is over and you start again. Follow thru on the black sequence. If black wins, reverse.
At some point, you have to quit- life demands it. So you on hand X, you stop playing whichever color just landed,sealing your profits. Now you play only the other color until that sequence wins. You've just played two less than 50-50 bets for however long and won money on each of them.

 

[Kasi]

I was without internet from June until October,

Ouch What was life like?

You could probibly do something for BJ. But with so many ways to win or lose something other than one bet (splits, double downs, bjs, surenders) it might take awhile.

Exactly my thoughts.

Thanks again.

My actual numbers are very close to your numbers in even just 7000 spins.

So, I'd say your program is working just fine :grin: :cool2:

And it was nice to see the HA kick in too after millions of spins :laugh:

I'm 1168 units ahead of EV after 210 virtual hours at a full 0-roulette table lmao.

So, I'm quitting while I'm ahead after 6 years as a recreational player who can play 35 hours a year.

 

[Kasi]

Next time, use OG and bet both Red and Black. Treat each color independent of the other- ie, you'll be doing two seperate grinds. Obviously,you can't quit both on the same spin.

That's for sissies :whip:

Real men do that betting High-Low, Odd-Even and Red-Black every spin. :grin:

You should spread to 6 hands of BJ assuming same and give it a shot lol.

Seriously, I have the results of the spins if you want to try whatever it is you want to try. I'll even have the W/L results for each even-bet so you can choose as many as you want.

 

[Kasi]

thank you.

Sorry. I got distracted today - will send tomorrow

 

[shadroch]

That's for sissies :whip:

Real men do that betting High-Low, Odd-Even and Red-Black every spin. :grin:

You should spread to 6 hands of BJ assuming same and give it a shot lol.

Seriously, I have the results of the spins if you want to try whatever it is you want to try. I'll even have the W/L results for each even-bet so you can choose as many as you want.

I've done 4 seperate bets on a rapid roullette machine, but it gets confusing and too much like work.

 

[Kasi]

I've done 4 seperate bets on a rapid roullette machine, but it gets confusing and too much like work.

Who'd a thunk :grin:

I can't even tell if you're making fun of this or not.

I don't even know how much roll you bring to play SG with BJ for how long.

I have no idea what any results you may have are or even if you keep any in any way at all.

And I don't care lol.

All I'm suggesting is that you have used your SG with BJ and have some idea of what has happened. So why not try the basic OG to 0-roulette if you want for the fun of it? Or craps if you want which would be even better?
And compare how you feel about either, which may or not be you feel is the best use, with whatever goals you may have, of a 100 or 500 unit roll?

Think how much more comp-value per $ there maybe could be playing craps in a game the house knows they will win, if you want.

No big deal - your money. Just offering a "laboratory-like" setting in case you choose to explore what you feel may be the best use of your money over how long.

Kind of like an AP guy does, except with 100% lifetime ROR and -EV with every single bet.

Just a heckuva lot lower chance of coming out ahead in the "short" term however you choose to define it.

 

[sagefr0g]

Sorry. I got distracted today - will send tomorrow

got it, thank you.
wtf is it, i'm friggin mind boggled.
this thing come with instructions in Latin and Greek, lmao.
maybe if i go to those wiz odds referanced sites i'll start understanding what i'm looking at.

oh well, hey shad, if you think Kasi isn't legit, take a look at this small snippet of whats a massive excell treatment on Oscar's Grind.

 

[sagefr0g]

mistake

hey Kasi, would that be a mistake in the oscar roulette sheet (sheet 1)
where the balance should have increased from 501 to 502 on the second bet?
and i guess that flowing balance or what ever you'd call it shoulda changed as well?

 

[Kasi]

hey Kasi, would that be a mistake in the oscar roulette sheet (sheet 1)
where the balance should have increased from 501 to 502 on the second bet?
and i guess that flowing balance or what ever you'd call it shoulda changed as well?

Well, I just chose to begin each "series" with a 500 unit roll. Just because I wanted to know the success rate with 500 units. I picked 500 units out of thin air lol. Figured it was big enough to win often but also lose a fair number of times. Just wanted to get a feel of what happens lol. How long a series might last (sometimes it could be 4 hours at a full roultte table!), how often you get up to betting a bunch of units, etc lol.
So, if my balance in a series reached 501, I won the series and would copy the 500 into the row below. You can't tell at the beginning becasue I turned all the formulas into values so it would have fewer cells to calc.
Also knowing that every series had a winning goal of always 501 (I won my unit) made it easier to bet 5 units even though maybe more would be called for. Also, it made it easier for a "1" to appear in column o since it would if my balance ever hit 501 lol.

The formulas are down in row 7001 or so.

It's easy enough to know what your overall balance would be anyway. I won 1068 times. I lost 500 twice. I'm 68 units up lol.

Flat-bet loss and flat expected loss are in cells f45 or so. Actual expected loss is cell M26 lol.

What I noticed was it depends alot on "streaks". If I had a 4win streak in the next 50 60 rows, I knew I was probably gonna be OK lol. (It's nice knowing the results of your future rolls lol).

Go down to row 7401 and bet the next series if you want. It looked like a possible loser to me lol.

Also, I'm getting creamed betting on "EVEN" with the same spins. I think I lost 500 units 3 times in a 1000 spins or so and only won 66 series lol. Betting "ODD" I had won 184 times or so in a row by then lol.

Anyway, I might teach it to my wife. Find a crap table, tell her to put the chip "there" everytime with $750 bucks and come back in a few hours. If she's still there, she's a few hours ahead of pace compared to what she usually does with $750 :grin: She'd still be ahead of pace if she's still there 20 minutes later. :whip: I really can't lose since with 100% certainty I'm gonna get that "honey, can I borrow $500 - I'll pay you back. Really. You know I'm good for it" anyway. I'm so gosh darn stupid I actually believed her the first time she said it, took my $500 back when she was $300 ahead anyway (after playing BJ but that's way too "boring" for her) and within mere hours, right around bedtime, learned exactly what "The Man Song" was all about.

So, all that success rate crap aside, that's the real reason, I'm doing this crap lol.

Anybody know if Pennsylvania has 25 cent single-zero roulette or craps slot machines?

If anyone wants to play it, I can at least post a sheet with the W/L already there in a long column of 30000 spins with the even-money bet of your choice lol.

Since you posted that sheet up above, I'd like to thank Miplet again for his OG calculator from which the success rates came. It also generates other extremely useful information like series length etc.

It was so great knowing exactly what to expect so I can now publish my latest formula.

The emotional pain to completely expected events is logarithmically inversely proportional to the square of how likley it is to occur and hyperbolically related to bet size lol.

I think Norm is gonna add that as a new calculator lmao.

 

[sagefr0g]

..
Also, I'm getting creamed betting on "EVEN" with the same spins. I think I lost 500 units 3 times in a 1000 spins or so and only won 66 series lol. Betting "ODD" I had won 184 times or so in a row by then lol.

yeah, i was losing pretty good on the even one.
but anyway thanks for the explainations.
trying to figure it all out was i dunno, sort of like me maybe taking my television apart and trying to put it back together again.

Anyway, I might teach it to my wife. Find a crap table, tell her to put the chip "there" everytime with $750 bucks and come back in a few hours. If she's still there, she's a few hours ahead of pace compared to what she usually does with $750 :grin: She'd still be ahead of pace if she's still there 20 minutes later. :whip: I really can't lose since with 100% certainty I'm gonna get that "honey, can I borrow $500 - I'll pay you back. Really. You know I'm good for it" anyway. I'm so gosh darn stupid I actually believed her the first time she said it, took my $500 back when she was $300 ahead anyway (after playing BJ but that's way too "boring" for her) and within mere hours, right around bedtime, learned exactly what "The Man Song" was all about.

So, all that success rate crap aside, that's the real reason, I'm doing this crap lol.

yeah i was thinking the same thing on those video roulette machines.
and heck if she's lucky and i tap out on the bj table, borrow my money back.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t7Y0I91rubg

 

[sagefr0g]

one thing about Oscar's Grind that makes me wonder.
i mean ok, you start out betting a unit.
and, one could well imagine that oh, whatever say you might have five or six gains of one unit in a row. no loss's.
and, as far as the rule of OG that was the thing to do. just bet one unit on those wins in that case.
so now say your up six units from your starting point.
and say you have five loss's in a row.
so your now only up one unit from your starting point.
so but now say you have a win and your now up two units from your starting point.
thing is now your supposed to bet two units.
ok fine thats the rules, but when you started out originally and you before had reached the same point where you were up two units from your original starting point you was happy as a lark to be betting just one unit.
i mean, what's the differance? why one time you just want to risk one unit at the same point and now all of a sudden you want to risk two units?:whip:

 

[Kasi]

one thing about Oscar's Grind that makes me wonder.
i mean ok, you start out betting a unit.
and, one could well imagine that oh, whatever say you might have five or six gains of one unit in a row. no loss's.
and, as far as the rule of OG that was the thing to do. just bet one unit on those wins in that case.
so now say your up six units from your starting point.
and say you have five loss's in a row.
so your now only up one unit from your starting point.
so but now say you have a win and your now up two units from your starting point.
thing is now your supposed to bet two units.
ok fine thats the rules, but when you started out originally and you before had reached the same point where you were up two units from your original starting point you was happy as a lark to be betting just one unit.
i mean, what's the differance? why one time you just want to risk one unit at the same point and now all of a sudden you want to risk two units?:whip:

Well, I'm not sure I understand lol.

OG wants to win 1 unit more than the number of units he started betting with.

If he won a unit 6 times in a row and has 506 units to start the next series, so be it. His goal for the next series would be to have 507 units. If we stopped at 501, OG lost 5 units in that series. OG did not complete the series.
I either win unit or I lose the roll I started the series with.

In other words, to me at leats, those rules of OG apply to a starting roll at the beginning of any series. Not the starting roll from 500 series ago.

So, if you lose 5 times in a row at the beginning of a series, the next bet is always 1 unit since you always bet the same amount after a loss.

All those success rates above with different unit rolls, just mean, how often you can walk up to this game with x unit roll and can expect to win 1 unit with that roll on the next "series". When you don't win the 1 unit, you lost the roll you began the series with.

So everytime you see a "500" in bold means it's the beginning of another series becasuse I achieved a balance of 501 with that 500 unit starting roll for that series on the spin before and I start over again with a 1 unit bet.

It didn't do that pansy voodoo stuff you do wihile card-counting and quit when your blackmagic betting exceeds what you would have expected to win had you "really" card-counted so you can go home with 3extra units lol.

And now you want to apply your voodoo blackmagic to what's already voodoo :grin:

Don't you know this 100% ROR stuff in a game over 5times worse than BJ requires disciplined betting :grin:

But, sure, anything you want, quit when you want, change unit size in dollars or units when you want, all fine with me lol. Quite possibly makes alot of sense.

 

[sagefr0g]

hold every thing

Well, I'm not sure I understand lol.

it's probably me that doesn't understand.

OG wants to win 1 unit more than the number of units he started betting with.

If he won a unit 6 times in a row and has 506 units to start the next series, so be it. His goal for the next series would be to have 507 units. If we stopped at 501, OG lost 5 units in that series. OG did not complete the series.
I either win unit or I lose the roll I started the series with.

In other words, to me at leats, those rules of OG apply to a starting roll at the beginning of any series. Not the starting roll from 500 series ago.

So, if you lose 5 times in a row at the beginning of a series, the next bet is always 1 unit since you always bet the same amount after a loss.

All those success rates above with different unit rolls, just mean, how often you can walk up to this game with x unit roll and can expect to win 1 unit with that roll on the next "series". When you don't win the 1 unit, you lost the roll you began the series with.

So everytime you see a "500" in bold means it's the beginning of another series becasuse I achieved a balance of 501 with that 500 unit starting roll for that series on the spin before and I start over again with a 1 unit bet.

ok, so then essentially are you saying that say i start with a 500 unit bankroll. then say follow OG and at some point i reach 506 units.
then i lose five times and then i'm at 501 units. and then say i win, so now i got 502 units.
so are you saying my next bet would just be 1 unit? instead of betting 2 units?
i mean i was thinking it would be 2 units, cause i'd been up to 506 units and was shooting for 507 units sorta of thing?
or in other words, is it any time you are above your starting bankroll your never gonna be betting more than one unit?
the only time your ever gonna be betting more than one units is when your below your starting bankroll?

It didn't do that pansy voodoo stuff you do wihile card-counting and quit when your blackmagic betting exceeds what you would have expected to win had you "really" card-counted so you can go home with 3extra units lol.

And now you want to apply your voodoo blackmagic to what's already voodoo :grin:

:laugh::flame:
oh, no you didn't!
pansy voodoo stuff, blackmagic?
you don't even want to go there.
that stuff works in the short term sometimes, and i got the anecdotal evidence, even if it proves nuthin.
even mr. straight laced, goody goody two shoes, aslan will admitt that.:devil:
and hey, those three extra units darned near pay my gas, so as that i can get home. lol.
pansy voodoo %$*#&@) grumble)#($*grrrr@!%$#!:laugh:

Don't you know this 100% ROR stuff in a game over 5times worse than BJ requires disciplined betting

yeah, yeah, that's why i'm trying to even understand how the heck to do this OG thing. lol.

But, sure, anything you want, quit when you want, change unit size in dollars or units when you want, all fine with me lol. Quite possibly makes alot of sense.

yeah, i know long as it make me happy.:cat: