QFIT
Well-Known Member
Katarina Walker's book on SP21 is now available at http://www.lulu.com/content/1239961. This is the definitive text on the subject.
Spanish 21 book
- Thread starter QFIT
- Start date
moo321
Well-Known Member
A change in the beginning house edge of .2% doesn't really matter that much, compared to the spread and total edge you can get. With the tens removed, I would guess that counting is significantly affected. I'd like to see some computer sims before I'm ready to concede that Spanish 21 is as easily beatable as other blackjack games.shadroch said:
Which version of Australian Pontoon?
The indices for seven variants of Australian Pontoon are in this book,
as well as for the common US versions.
I'm about 1/2 done reading this book. It's very thorough, well written
and has all the documentation you want/need. Precise explanations
of her claims that Sp21 is at least as beatable as BJ, in many rule sets.
She even has the BS and Hi/Lo indices, although, because of the various
multi-card payouts, higher % ace presence, etc. the BS changes some,
and the indices are more important.
Her style/thoroughness reminds me of A. Snyder's writing in Blackbelt.
FWIW
BJinNJ
The indices for seven variants of Australian Pontoon are in this book,
as well as for the common US versions.
I'm about 1/2 done reading this book. It's very thorough, well written
and has all the documentation you want/need. Precise explanations
of her claims that Sp21 is at least as beatable as BJ, in many rule sets.
She even has the BS and Hi/Lo indices, although, because of the various
multi-card payouts, higher % ace presence, etc. the BS changes some,
and the indices are more important.
Her style/thoroughness reminds me of A. Snyder's writing in Blackbelt.
FWIW
BJinNJ
Katarina Walker
New Member
10 reasons why Spanish 21 is more beatable than Blackjack
If you play the Spanish 21 games with low house edges (and they are all over the northeast, Canada, and the Pacific northwest)
e.g. S17 Spanish 21 (6-deck house edge 0.37%) or H17 with redoubling Spanish 21 (6-deck house edge 0.42%), you make a lot more money than if you play Blackjack. Why?
1. Even in the H17 game, the Ace EOR is -0.73. It's even higher in the S17 game. The Ace is so much more valuable than in Blackjack because naturals ALWAYS get paid 3:2, and you can split Aces to 4 hands, and draw and double down on them.
2. To top it off, this Ace of heightened value occurs more frequently than in Blackjack (1/12 instead of 1/13).
3. Indices are much more powerful than in Blackjack, where there is little scope for play variation. (e.g., for stiff hands, which are the most common, what can you do as the count goes up: vary your play between hitting 12 vs 2,3 and standing? Wow. Powerful stuff (not). In Spanish 21, the indices win rate is 2.15 times the BS win rate, on average. There is HUGE scope for play variation as the count goes up.
4. For each increment of +1 in the Hi-Lo true count, the increase in the natural proportion (i.e. the gradient) is 17% higher in Spanish 21 than Blackjack, because of the Ace-richness.
5. For each increment of +1 in the Hi-Lo true count, the SP21 advantage increases by an average of 0.65% (when using all indices). Isn't BJ around 0.5%? And Aces are 1/4 of the money cards rather than 1/5.
6. SP21 penetration is up to 90% in some venues. On average, SP21 pen is much better than BJ pen. You would all know that win rate (90% pen) is around 6 times the win rate at 65% pen, not even including the extra shuffle time.
7. Dealers regularly give early surrender because they have no idea what they are doing.
8. I don't use one, but a 2-level count would be even better. The KatCount, 1 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 -1 -2 (from 2 through Ace) has a correlation coefficient (between EORS) of 0.983. Significantly higher than the corr coeff for the Revere Point Count for Blackjack (which is 0.976).
9. There is hardly any heat, so you can bet optimally. You get table conditions that haven't been seen in Blackjack for 40 years.
10. You can double down on any number of cards. As the count increases, we all know that we win more doubles. In SP21, we get even more winning doubles than in Blackjack, as the count goes up.
A quote from Anthony Curtis:
"As is often the case in gambling, cursory investigation, erroneous assumptions, and limited information can lead to missed
opportunities. Such has been the case with Spanish 21."
If you play the Spanish 21 games with low house edges (and they are all over the northeast, Canada, and the Pacific northwest)
e.g. S17 Spanish 21 (6-deck house edge 0.37%) or H17 with redoubling Spanish 21 (6-deck house edge 0.42%), you make a lot more money than if you play Blackjack. Why?
1. Even in the H17 game, the Ace EOR is -0.73. It's even higher in the S17 game. The Ace is so much more valuable than in Blackjack because naturals ALWAYS get paid 3:2, and you can split Aces to 4 hands, and draw and double down on them.
2. To top it off, this Ace of heightened value occurs more frequently than in Blackjack (1/12 instead of 1/13).
3. Indices are much more powerful than in Blackjack, where there is little scope for play variation. (e.g., for stiff hands, which are the most common, what can you do as the count goes up: vary your play between hitting 12 vs 2,3 and standing? Wow. Powerful stuff (not). In Spanish 21, the indices win rate is 2.15 times the BS win rate, on average. There is HUGE scope for play variation as the count goes up.
4. For each increment of +1 in the Hi-Lo true count, the increase in the natural proportion (i.e. the gradient) is 17% higher in Spanish 21 than Blackjack, because of the Ace-richness.
5. For each increment of +1 in the Hi-Lo true count, the SP21 advantage increases by an average of 0.65% (when using all indices). Isn't BJ around 0.5%? And Aces are 1/4 of the money cards rather than 1/5.
6. SP21 penetration is up to 90% in some venues. On average, SP21 pen is much better than BJ pen. You would all know that win rate (90% pen) is around 6 times the win rate at 65% pen, not even including the extra shuffle time.
7. Dealers regularly give early surrender because they have no idea what they are doing.
8. I don't use one, but a 2-level count would be even better. The KatCount, 1 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 -1 -2 (from 2 through Ace) has a correlation coefficient (between EORS) of 0.983. Significantly higher than the corr coeff for the Revere Point Count for Blackjack (which is 0.976).
9. There is hardly any heat, so you can bet optimally. You get table conditions that haven't been seen in Blackjack for 40 years.
10. You can double down on any number of cards. As the count increases, we all know that we win more doubles. In SP21, we get even more winning doubles than in Blackjack, as the count goes up.
A quote from Anthony Curtis:
"As is often the case in gambling, cursory investigation, erroneous assumptions, and limited information can lead to missed
opportunities. Such has been the case with Spanish 21."
jack.jackson
Well-Known Member
Katarina Walker said:
Wow, Good analysis.
Is your un-balanced system of +8 vs -6 correct? If so, is it geared this way with the thought of S21 in mind? Looks like it, since the ace has twice the value of tens.
I would be curious to see how this count would fare in S21 (2223210-1-2-3)
Do you use a S21 blackjack analyzer?
Katarina Walker
New Member
Counting in Spanish 21
>Is your un-balanced system of +8 vs -6 correct?
I have no idea what you're talking about.
>If so, is it geared this way with the thought of S21 in mind? Looks like it, >since the ace has twice the value of tens.
I use Hi-Lo, which is unbalanced for SP21. The optimal 2-level count is 1 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 -1 -2 (2 through Ace), which has a correlation coefficient (between EORs and tags) of 0.983.
>I would be curious to see how this count would fare in S21 (2223210-1-2-3)
OMG. A 3 level count? Not necessary. I do very well using Hi-Lo. You must remember that indices are far more powerful in SP21 than BJ, because of the scope for play variation, as the count increases. In BJ, there is very littel scope for play variation as the count increases.
>Do you use a S21 blackjack analyzer?
Yes. My own. I'm a computer programmer.
>Is your un-balanced system of +8 vs -6 correct?
I have no idea what you're talking about.
>If so, is it geared this way with the thought of S21 in mind? Looks like it, >since the ace has twice the value of tens.
I use Hi-Lo, which is unbalanced for SP21. The optimal 2-level count is 1 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 -1 -2 (2 through Ace), which has a correlation coefficient (between EORs and tags) of 0.983.
>I would be curious to see how this count would fare in S21 (2223210-1-2-3)
OMG. A 3 level count? Not necessary. I do very well using Hi-Lo. You must remember that indices are far more powerful in SP21 than BJ, because of the scope for play variation, as the count increases. In BJ, there is very littel scope for play variation as the count increases.
>Do you use a S21 blackjack analyzer?
Yes. My own. I'm a computer programmer.
Katarina Walker
New Member
Counting in Spanish 21
>Out of the woodwork!
I've been around for a few years now, but as a Spanish 21 player, there was nothing to be gained from participating in forums like this, as they are for Blackjack. Plus I wanted to keep my secrets to myself so I could keep playing with total and utter impunity. But I'm over that now.
>Do you have sims to support these stats?
Of course. I'm a comptuer programmer. I write my own sims. I had to, because up until just recently, none of the commercial simmers could do it for me. Norm's CVData works for SP21 now. It is Norm's software that I recommend to my readers.
>And, without being specific, do you have significant casino experience >playing the game?
In terms of sheer number of hands, more than most. In Australia, where the game is NHC and is called Pontoon. I've also played SP21 in the U.S.
>(are you getting the money?)
I make an average living from playing, and have done so for a few years now.
>Out of the woodwork!
I've been around for a few years now, but as a Spanish 21 player, there was nothing to be gained from participating in forums like this, as they are for Blackjack. Plus I wanted to keep my secrets to myself so I could keep playing with total and utter impunity. But I'm over that now.
>Do you have sims to support these stats?
Of course. I'm a comptuer programmer. I write my own sims. I had to, because up until just recently, none of the commercial simmers could do it for me. Norm's CVData works for SP21 now. It is Norm's software that I recommend to my readers.
>And, without being specific, do you have significant casino experience >playing the game?
In terms of sheer number of hands, more than most. In Australia, where the game is NHC and is called Pontoon. I've also played SP21 in the U.S.
>(are you getting the money?)
I make an average living from playing, and have done so for a few years now.
zengrifter
Banned
Where did Frank's Sink Spanish Armada fail to find the full weakness of SP21? Has it always been more beatable than we thought?QFIT said:
Afterall, I was one of the first and few to aggressively play S21. What did I miss with SP21? zg
The best-kept secret in the international pro gaming scene is finally out: Spanish 21, and its Australian counterpart, Pontoon, is even more beatable than Blackjack. "The Pro's Guide to Spanish 21" will teach you how to play optimally, apply proven Blackjack card-counting techniques to Spanish 21, and do better than you ever did playing Blackjack.
It is not superfun 21.Knox said:
Spanish 21 is played with all the tens removed from the deck.There are some favorable rules,like hitting split Aces more than once. 21 is always a winner,player BJ beats dealers BJ,bonuses for 6-7-8,3 7s,and five cards. I think you can double on any three cards,and surrender after three cards. I'm not really sure as I have never played it myself.I assumed that taking away 25% of your BJs killed the game.But I've been hearing from a few people that it can be easily beat. Especially in AC.
I figure a $30 investment is worth finding out for sure.