try and be an idiot

[sagefr0g]

.......Here's what I came up with Powersim.
A 3/4 play-all heads up game with standard S17 DOA DAS, re-split to 4 hands, No surrender, no indexes, standard stuff with Aces. 1-10 spread with a $100K roll. Using Hi-Lo count. Always just play BS.

Bet $50 at TC0 or below.
Bet $175 at TC +1.
Bet $350 at TC +2.
Bet $500 at TC+3 and above.

Basically that's it. ......

Anybody know if Powersim floors TC? Like a TC of +1.9 is still a TC+1 bet. Full deck estimation I assume. Use half decks if you want.

Can anybody run this spread thru CV whatever? I'm getting a .7858% EV. Win rate $105 per hundred hands. SD $2300 per hundred hands. Avg bet $134/hd. 95000 hands to double bank. 475 hours to N0. ROR 1.85%

.....

i tryed. think i need to do it over. well my results aren't agreeing with your.
do you think powersim was running full index's maybe?
well here is what i got. but i'll probably have to do it over.
got one i created with no index's and the other was a canned sim full index's.
oh yeah and in the custom bets i tryed to match your bet structure.......
can't understand why the big differance in count frequency between the sims for <=-1 & 0 counts? i floored my sim the one with no indexs used perhaps the canned one rounds???

 

[sagefr0g]

here's one rounded

yep i think the differance was the canned sim was rounded....
here's one where i rounded the s17das no index game..... note how the tc frequency values came closer to the canned sim when i rounded instead of flooring......
still not sure i'm doin this right lol.. sorry. gotta read the manual some.

 

[sagefr0g]

final

Originally Posted by Kasi

.......Here's what I came up with Powersim.
A 3/4 play-all heads up game with standard S17 DOA DAS, re-split to 4 hands, No surrender, no indexes, standard stuff with Aces. 1-10 spread with a $100K roll. Using Hi-Lo count. Always just play BS.

Bet $50 at TC0 or below.
Bet $175 at TC +1.
Bet $350 at TC +2.
Bet $500 at TC+3 and above.

Basically that's it. ......

Anybody know if Powersim floors TC? Like a TC of +1.9 is still a TC+1 bet. Full deck estimation I assume. Use half decks if you want.

Can anybody run this spread thru CV whatever? I'm getting a .7858% EV. Win rate $105 per hundred hands. SD $2300 per hundred hands. Avg bet $134/hd. 95000 hands to double bank. 475 hours to N0. ROR 1.85%

.....

ok went through cvcx manual re-worked it all and here is what i came up with for s17das re-split to four hands but NRA (no re-split aces), heads up no index's, so no insurance, a 1 to 10 spread, bankroll $100,000.00 , High Low count, used flooring for TC's full deck resolution , allways just play basic strategy. it's for the high low count according to Wong in Professional Blackjack. went with 'rational bets' optimized for bankroll growth. i changed the min bet down to $50 from the optimized $75 min. but i did include the sim with the $75min just for illustration.
note: put the bet structure you came up with in the custom bets for comparison...

 

[Kasi]

I assume we're playing 6-deck. KO recommends the following betting progression, a modified Kelly scheme, based on 6-deck, DOA, DAS, 75% pen, 1 to 10 spread with a ramp of 6. This is what I use in AC:

$50 at -5 (which is less than TC of +1 with less than 3 decks remaining)
$100 at -4 (which is TC of +1.33 with 3 decks remaining)
$100 at -3
$150 at -2
$200 at -1
$250 at 0
$300 at +1
$400 at +2
$450 at +3
$500 at +4 and above (+4 equals a TC of +4 exactly)

Is this okay for the experiment?

You know, even though I picked a 4 deck game above, thinking maybe it would make it easier for people that might choose to use physical cards, you're probably right - why not use a 6D game. A little more like the "real world" lol. Not like a 4 deck game actually exists lol.

If you want to use indexes, fine with me - only likely to help the "team" out since I thought no indexes might allow more people to join in who haven't learned indexes. Heck, if anyone Hi-Lo players want to use indexes, why not. Sure, a different game with different EV etc but probably not that much different.

I'm sure we can figure out a comparable betting spread and amounts for KO players. I just want, even if different counting systems are used, the expectations be "about the same". So, like, if we choose a "play-all" game, anyone back-counting or wonging out would be an entirely different game.

Another possibilty is do a separate "plan"/sim for KO players making whatever assumptions for the KO team and let KO players post there.

I take it your AC betting scheme is a "wong-out" or "back-counting" scheme?

Of course, that's good lol, but I'm thinking of play-all just because it's simpler. Yet tougher, enduring so many min bets in neg counts. Could you handle that?

 

[Kasi]

From the PowerSim instructions:

Thank you Canceller - that's what I discovered today too!

Basically it means, feel free to estimate remaining decks to nearest quarter, or half deck, or card, as you can since Psim does it by cards remaining and floors the result.

So, like it says, at RC +20 with 64 cards remaining, it'll get TC 16.25 and floor to TC 16.

Whereas a guy estimating to nearest whole decks remaining would get a TC +20.

 

[jack.jackson]

Is speading to 2 hands permissible? Or would that interfere with the Gameplan?

GhostRider

 

[sagefr0g]

Is speading to 2 hands permissible? Or would that interfere with the Gameplan?

GhostRider

probably not jj.
it'll complicate matters. especially for Kasi when he analyses the play.

 

[Kasi]

Don't know how Powersim calculates the TC. Is there no option to choose between rounding, flooring, truncating? . Ok, I used CVCX for 4.5/6
s17 das hilo, basic strategy, 1 Billion rounds, spread 1-10, with 3 other players, TC floored, full deck estimation and your betting scheme I get a ROR of 5.7%, SD $2166 per hundred hands, EV 0.532%, Win rate $67.33, Average Bet $126.49/hd N0 103,543 hands, SCORE 9.66.

Nothing wrong with your sim- just thought always playing "heads-up" in our ideal team world would be easier and quicker to get more hands played per hour.

Unlike how I envision CVCX and CVData, since I don't have either, Psim just calculates TC's based on cards remaining and floors the result. So, the more you can divide by 1.75 or 3.25 etc, the closer you will be to the predicted results.

I suspect Norm's products have flexibility out the wazoo making it well worth the price for any AP player. Spreading, index generation, camo betting, crazy counting systems and side counts, etc. And if there is something that you want and it isn't there, if it makes the slightest sense at all, he'll probably add it tomorrow for you.

 

[sagefr0g]

lol i was simin six deckers....

well here is the sim for four deck. s17das re-split to four hands but NRA (no re-split aces), heads up no index's, so no insurance, a 1 to 10 spread, bankroll $100,000.00 , High Low count, used flooring for TC's full deck resolution , allways just play basic strategy.
so we got some options......
2000million rounds..... whew.

 

[Kasi]

Originally Posted by Kasi

ok went through cvcx manual re-worked it all and here is what i came up with for s17das re-split to four hands but NRA (no re-split aces), heads up no index's, so no insurance, a 1 to 10 spread, bankroll $100,000.00 , High Low count, used flooring for TC's full deck resolution , allways just play basic strategy. it's for the high low count according to Wong in Professional Blackjack. went with 'rational bets' optimized for bankroll growth. i changed the min bet down to $50 from the optimized $75 min. but i did include the sim with the $75min just for illustration.
note: put the bet structure you came up with in the custom bets for comparison...

Hey - you're doing great. I didn't want you to work that hard lol.

Actually that first one wasn't really that far off.

Anyway, mine was for a 4D game dealt 75% so that could be a difference too.

I'm scratching 4 decks anyway lol. So, I'll do another for 6 decks and we can compare notes then lol.

At least a lot of people are simming something - I like that

Not to mention there's no magic to using Psim. The only thing there is that I have a good idea of the game rules, how it calculates TC's, indexes or not, etc. Like I think Don's CH 10 tables are always assuming a few players and use of indexes so I don't know exactly what CVCX CH 10 sims may be assuming.

Probably doesn't matter much that anyway for the BJINFO team. We allow a little individual freedom for our team members - use the indexes you know and don't worry about it if you don't.

So we'll see how close Psim gets to one of your sims above tomorrow. I just was thinking as simple as possible so it's conservative to begin with and so any BS counter could join in and not worry about surrender or indexes or whatever.

Another thing I was thinking, should we go forward in some fashion trying to count and bet to a count knowing what to expect, that the new thread sure as heck doesn't belong in Voodoo.

Maybe in card-counting titled "Man this "counting" stuff is hard - Part II" lol.

 

[aslan]

You know, even though I picked a 4 deck game above, thinking maybe it would make it easier for people that might choose to use physical cards, you're probably right - why not use a 6D game. A little more like the "real world" lol. Not like a 4 deck game actually exists lol.

If you want to use indexes, fine with me - only likely to help the "team" out since I thought no indexes might allow more people to join in who haven't learned indexes. Heck, if anyone Hi-Lo players want to use indexes, why not. Sure, a different game with different EV etc but probably not that much different.

I'm sure we can figure out a comparable betting spread and amounts for KO players. I just want, even if different counting systems are used, the expectations be "about the same". So, like, if we choose a "play-all" game, anyone back-counting or wonging out would be an entirely different game.

Another possibilty is do a separate "plan"/sim for KO players making whatever assumptions for the KO team and let KO players post there.

I take it your AC betting scheme is a "wong-out" or "back-counting" scheme?

Of course, that's good lol, but I'm thinking of play-all just because it's simpler. Yet tougher, enduring so many min bets in neg counts. Could you handle that?

Yup!

 

[jack.jackson]

Cool!

You're way ahead of me now lol.

I think that's absolutely great.

Don't need your girlfriend to practice anymore

There goes this month's booze budget lol.

Well....... I was a little ahead, so it only put me a little behind. Been doing some part-time work, so Ive been a little busy. Still gotta enough for a case of Keystone Premium though,:laugh:

 

[Kasi]

Well....... I was a little ahead, so it only put me a little behind. Been doing some part-time work, so Ive been a little busy. Still gotta enough for a case of Keystone Premium though,:laugh:

Gotta take life one case at a time lol.

My latest incarnation - 6 decks dealt 80%, not 75%. Play-all etc

$30 at TC 0 and below
Then $150, $325, $500 and $600 at Tc +4 and above.

And, for u JJ, if you want to spread, go ahead. Maybe only at max bets? How's that for a deal lol. Basically, I won't have any idea of what that may do to your EV etc. We can always figure it out later. Mostly, whatever it is you do, be/try consistent about it from hand 1. The more one tries to count and bet those amounts, the more he can see how he's doing compared to EV.

Better yet, we'll just blame those renegade team members for any bad results lol.

50-100 hands here and there if amd when the spirit moves you. Stop when you get bored. Number of hands and money lost or won is basically all we need. Hopefully played in 80% 6 deck shoes lol.

That's all I need from anyone. Eventually it'll add up to a lot of hands. Hopefully.

What say u all?

 

[sagefr0g]

Gotta take life one case at a time lol.

My latest incarnation - 6 decks dealt 80%, not 75%. Play-all etc

$30 at TC 0 and below
Then $150, $325, $500 and $600 at Tc +4 and above.

.......
What say u all?

i suppose your ect. is s17das-nrsa split to four hands full deck resolution flooring, no indexs, heads up only. hundred grand bankroll.
i put your bet scheme in the custom bets.
two thousand million rounds.......

 

[jack.jackson]

Lets get ready to RUUUUMMMMBLE.

Gotta take life one case at a time lol.

My latest incarnation - 6 decks dealt 80%, not 75%. Play-all etc

$30 at TC 0 and below
Then $150, $325, $500 and $600 at Tc +4 and above.

And, for u JJ, if you want to spread, go ahead. Maybe only at max bets? How's that for a deal lol. Basically, I won't have any idea of what that may do to your EV etc. We can always figure it out later. Mostly, whatever it is you do, be/try consistent about it from hand 1. The more one tries to count and bet those amounts, the more he can see how he's doing compared to EV.

Better yet, we'll just blame those renegade team members for any bad results lol.

50-100 hands here and there if amd when the spirit moves you. Stop when you get bored. Number of hands and money lost or won is basically all we need. Hopefully played in 80% 6 deck shoes lol.

That's all I need from anyone. Eventually it'll add up to a lot of hands. Hopefully.

What say u all?

Im Good for 1 hand only, no problem. I like how you got it set-up. Im Jazzed, Lets do this!!!

 

[sagefr0g]

Im Good for 1 hand only, no problem. I like how you got it set-up. Im Jazzed, Lets do this!!!

ok i like how it's set up also....
Aslan how about you?

 

[jack.jackson]

Official Rules?

Okay whats the official rules, again?

Unit 30 or 50?

I'll be goin +2+4+6+8 for my L2

 

[jack.jackson]

Okay whats the official rules, again?

Unit, 30 or 50?

I'll be goin +2+4+6+8 for my L2

Ill be gettin started as soon as the official rules are established.


Im gonna go with physical cards, until I get a little more experience w/ CVBJ.

Havent had much time, until now.

If its not to much of a problem Im gonna keep my BaseBet @25$

(Thats because its kinda of realistic+So I dont have to deal w/2 different chips on minimal bets)

Really would prefer not to change one of my chips into a 30$ denominator.(Only change chip denomintions, when I go on long high stake runs) Grown accustomed.

Other than that, Im all good to go!

Should I make-up some sort of tally/score sheet?

 

[sagefr0g]

Okay whats the official rules, again?

Unit, 30 or 50?

I'll be goin +2+4+6+8 for my L2

Ill be gettin started as soon as the official rules are established.


Im gonna go with physical cards, until I get a little more experience w/ CVBJ.

Havent had much time, until now.

If its not to much of a problem Im gonna keep my BaseBet @25$

(Thats because its kinda of realistic+So I dont have to deal w/2 different chips on minimal bets)

Really would prefer not to change one of my chips into a 30$ denominator.(Only change chip denomintions, when I go on long high stake runs) Grown accustomed.

Other than that, Im all good to go!

Should I make-up some sort of tally/score sheet?

this is what Kasi was suggesting.....
6 decks dealt 80%, not 75%. Play-all etc

$30 at TC 0 and below
Then $150, $325, $500 and $600 at Tc +4 and above.

And, for u JJ, if you want to spread, go ahead. Maybe only at max bets? How's that for a deal lol
-------------------------------
and i'm assumming
s17das-nrsa split to four hands full deck resolution flooring, no indexs, heads up only. hundred grand bankroll.
--------------------------------------------------------
lol i've already started.
but i can always restart if i'm wrong on all this.
haven't heard Aslan's vote on all this yet.

opinion jj needs to use that CVBJ. it ain't hard at all once you get it set up and goin. questions.... i'll help.

you have an idea for a scoreboard jj ?

 

[Kasi]

Im Good for 1 hand only, no problem.

I kept thinking when I read that that you were only going to play 1 hand lol. Or maybe 1 hand and then you'd be bored lol. But I finally figured it out

Hate to cramp your style lol. But if you want to use level 2 counts or side counts, I wish I knew for sure, how "material" that might be, but I'd guess the side counts would be more for index departures anyway? And, I don't know, how different using level 2 counts would matter anyway if you bet same amount at the same TC anyway? Anyone have guesses lol. Maybe your CVDATA can figure something like that out lol.

But I'm ready to ruuuumble lol.

Thanks for the sim Wise One. I guess I'm in the ballpark more or less with its results - maybe not quite as close as I thought the two would end up. Only thoughts I have, since I think you got the rules right lol, (any chance yours used Late Surender?) is maybe that full deck resolution assumption? All I know is Psim will take a RC +20 with 1.25 decks remaining and get a TC of +16. Not sure if someone using full deck resolution would say there's 1 or 2 decks remaining but looks alot closer to 1 deck remaining so I'll divide by 1 and get a TC +20. Not to mention what effect that might have.

Who cares though - we can use both and measure any results against either or both. If that is the reason for the differences, some people might divide by the nearest half-deck, some quarter deck, some just nearest whole deck anyway. Eventually we'll either go broke or get way ahead anyway lol.

Should we start a new thread here? In CC section maybe?