Weekend Warriors

[aslan]

yep i dunno much about kopreferred or ko for that matter but any who the use of those 13 or so departures against hi/lo using none over multiple millions of rounds would at least make for some additional advantage on the kopreferred sim over the hi/lo.

I'm not the math guy...lol...I just play by the book...duhhhh!...Lol...

 

[aslan]

Aslan's Report 7/17/08 08:27 EDT

Latest Session: Dollars $1,050 Hands 1,616

..............................Amount.......Hands
Previous..................$27,526.......5,531
Latest Session...........$1,050.......1,616
Cumulative Total.......$28,576.......7,147


I had to play a ton of hands to get back on the winning side this session. I was down $7,000 or so, as variance really broke bad on me. Just like real life, I would not hang up the phone until I was on the winning side--although in real life, I've gone bust a few times before I made it back. Lol

 

[jack.jackson]

Latest Session: Dollars $1,050 Hands 1,616

..............................Amount.......Hands
Previous..................$27,526.......5,531
Latest Session...........$1,050.......1,616
Cumulative Total.......$28,576.......7,147


I had to play a ton of hands to get back on the winning side this session. I was down $7,000 or so, as variance really broke bad on me. Just like real life, I would not hang up the phone until I was on the winning side--although in real life, I've gone bust a few times before I made it back. Lol View attachment 724

Okay Aslan come'on now, you and Pacman cant possibly be winning that much now, can you?

 

[Canceler]

Okay Aslan come'on now, you and Pacman cant possibly be winning that much now, can you?

Someone has to keep The Force in balance!

Today I had a new record personal worst. During a sky-high count I managed to lose more than $12,000 in one shoe.

- Darth Canceler

 

[sagefr0g]

Someone has to keep The Force in balance!

Today I had a new record personal worst. During a sky-high count I managed to lose more than $12,000 in one shoe.

- Darth Canceler

keep the force in balance? uhmm errhh well i wish i could say it was gonna be me but ........maybe if i play some more...... things might turn around.
:cow:

 

[k_c]

Updated Warrior Spreadsheet

Added risk of ruin and a few other things to my spreadsheet.

(Dead link: http://www.bjstrat.net/Downloads/Warrior4.zip) _Updated spreadsheet_

So far I have simulated 31 shoes amounting to 1425 rounds. Good news is that I can now get new data with some automation and all data includes exact pre-round BS EV. Bad news is that it takes about a half hour per shoe on my outdated computer. I think on a newer computer the process could possibly take 10-15 percent of the time my computer needs, maybe less. Without the pre-deal EV calculation I could probably generate millions of rounds but there would be no reference to actual EV available.

For 31 shoes using warrior spreads + warrior rules (spreads can be changed in the spreadsheet):
All use basic full shoe TD strategy -

Flat bet: +17.5 units (max was about +57, min about -7)
Hi-Lo: +107.5 units (was about +280 before last 10 shoes)
Unbalanced KO: +120 units (was about +60 before last 10 shoes, at 1 time barely above even)
True Counted KO: +181.5 units (was about +285 before last 10 shoes)

Ave pre-round EV: -.36% (was -.72% but increased on about the last 12-15 shoes)
Ave Hi-Lo TC: +.26 (was about -.5 but increased on last 10 shoes)

It seems a flat bettor plays at a lower risk of ruin than a counter when bankroll is small and there is a modest goal.

To compute RoR I am using an approximation method outlined in Theory of Blacjack, Sixth Edition.

 

[aslan]

Okay Aslan come'on now, you and Pacman cant possibly be winning that much now, can you?

Who is Pacman? Yes, I'm doing well, but this last time it's a good thing we have unlimited funds cuz I blew right through that initial $5,000. Is Pacman the smiley face? Lol I'm trying to catch up with the green hopper but I think I have a better chance of him falling back to my level. I didn't know it was possible to have such good fortune counting and I am hopeful that my first experience of it will be in the 'sinos and not here online. Lol Sage is my inspiration. That drat toad! Just look at him go!!

Carch you later, jj.

 

[jack.jackson]

Who is Pacman? Yes, I'm doing well, but this last time it's a good thing we have unlimited funds cuz I blew right through that initial $5,000. Is Pacman the smiley face? Lol I'm trying to catch up with the green hopper but I think I have a better chance of him falling back to my level. I didn't know it was possible to have such good fortune counting and I am hopeful that my first experience of it will be in the 'sinos and not here online. Lol Sage is my inspiration. That drat toad! View attachment 750View attachment 751Just look at him go!!

Carch you later, jj. View attachment 748View attachment 749

Ya Pacmans the little yellow guy.lol. Ive actually been banging my head of the walls tryin to catch that toad.

I"ll catch'em tho, and then Ill stick my tongue out at'em

Well I gotta go somethings starting to stink around here

Lol

 

[jack.jackson]

Added risk of ruin and a few other things to my spreadsheet.

(Dead link: http://www.bjstrat.net/Downloads/Warrior4.zip) _Updated spreadsheet_

So far I have simulated 31 shoes amounting to 1425 rounds. Good news is that I can now get new data with some automation and all data includes exact pre-round BS EV. Bad news is that it takes about a half hour per shoe on my outdated computer. I think on a newer computer the process could possibly take 10-15 percent of the time my computer needs, maybe less. Without the pre-deal EV calculation I could probably generate millions of rounds but there would be no reference to actual EV available.

For 31 shoes using warrior spreads + warrior rules (spreads can be changed in the spreadsheet):
All use basic full shoe TD strategy -

Flat bet: +17.5 units (max was about +57, min about -7)
Hi-Lo: +107.5 units (was about +280 before last 10 shoes)
Unbalanced KO: +120 units (was about +60 before last 10 shoes, at 1 time barely above even)
True Counted KO: +181.5 units (was about +285 before last 10 shoes)

Ave pre-round EV: -.36% (was -.72% but increased on about the last 12-15 shoes)
Ave Hi-Lo TC: +.26 (was about -.5 but increased on last 10 shoes)

It seems a flat bettor plays at a lower risk of ruin than a counter when bankroll is small and there is a modest goal.

To compute RoR I am using an approximation method outlined in Theory of Blacjack, Sixth Edition.

Nice work k_c! Well put your name up in lights on the next scoreboard up-date. Glad to see your still in the games.

Ps why dont you put your software as your signature?

 

[aslan]

Aslan's Report 7/19/08 11:19 a.m. EDT

Latest Session: Dollars $125 Hands 275

..............................Amount.......Hands
Previous..................$28,576.......7,147
Latest Session..............$125.........275
Cumulative Total.......$28,701......7,422

Another tough session. I was down over $2,000, but made a comeback in one round to get even. Then the program began to malfunction on a player blackjack:

Server Error in '/blackjack' Application.
Input string was not in a correct format.

Description: An unhandled exception occurred during the execution of the current web request. Please review the stack trace for more information about the error and where it originated in the code.

Exception Details: System.

FormatException: Input string was not in a correct format.

Source Error: An unhandled exception was generated during the execution of the current web request. Information regarding the origin and location of the exception can be identified using the exception stack trace below.

Stack Trace:

[FormatException: Input string was not in a correct format.]
System.Number.StringToNumber(String str, NumberStyles options, NumberBuffer& number, NumberFormatInfo info, Boolean parseDecimal) +2725283
System.Number.ParseInt32(String s, NumberStyles style, NumberFormatInfo info) +102
Game.LinkButton_OnClick(Object sender, EventArgs e) +102
System.Web.UI.WebControls.LinkButton.OnClick(EventArgs e) +105
System.Web.UI.WebControls.LinkButton.RaisePostBackEvent(String eventArgument) +107
System.Web.UI.WebControls.LinkButton.System.Web.UI.IPostBackEventHandler.RaisePostBackEvent(String eventArgument) +7
System.Web.UI.Page.RaisePostBackEvent(IPostBackEventHandler sourceControl, String eventArgument) +11
System.Web.UI.Page.RaisePostBackEvent(NameValueCollection postData) +174
System.Web.UI.Page.ProcessRequestMain(Boolean includeStagesBeforeAsyncPoint, Boolean includeStagesAfterAsyncPoint) +5102


I don't know what it means, but changing the bet to $10,000 got it running again. lol Of course I didn't want to bet that much. Lol I didn't count that one!

 

[jack.jackson]

(Dead link: http://us.f590.mail.yahoo.com/ya/download?clean=0&fid=Inbox&mid=1_52680_AAllxEIAABcpSIIQBAKtfy3pYn8&pid=2&tnef=&prefFilename=Weekend+Warriors.wav)

This may only work, through IE7 and WMP11 as the default, not sure? Please dont laugh, its still a project in the making..lol

 

[Canceler]

Back to the drawing board?

(Dead link: http://us.f590.mail.yahoo.com/ya/download?clean=0&fid=Inbox&mid=1_52680_AAllxEIAABcpSIIQBAKtfy3pYn8&pid=2&tnef=&prefFilename=Weekend+Warriors.wav)

This may only work, through IE7 and WMP11 as the default, not sure? Please dont laugh, its still a project in the making..lol

If WMP stands for Windows Media Player, then I have both of those, but all I get is a blank white screen. I am one of those po' folks that still has a dial-up connection, if that makes any difference.

 

[Canceler]

Definitely back to the drawing board...

Speaking of malfunctions…

I made an appalling, and embarrassing, discovery yesterday. My program has been mishandling the results every time I take insurance. All my results so far are invalid.

I’m going to start over once I figure out how to fix whatever is wrong. So my results so far should be zero hands played with zero dollars won or lost. Sorry, guys.

The couple of you that got a copy of my program should just junk it. THIS is the exact reason I asked you not to pass it on to anyone else.

 

[aslan]

Aslan's Report 7/19/08 1:26 p.m. EDT

Latest Session: Dollars $1.800 Hands 279

..............................Amount.......Hands
Previous..................$28,701......7,422
Latest Session.......... $1.800.........279
Cumulative Total.......$30,501......7,701


:grin:

 

[aslan]

(Dead link: http://us.f590.mail.yahoo.com/ya/download?clean=0&fid=Inbox&mid=1_52680_AAllxEIAABcpSIIQBAKtfy3pYn8&pid=2&tnef=&prefFilename=Weekend+Warriors.wav)

This may only work, through IE7 and WMP11 as the default, not sure? Please dont laugh, its still a project in the making..lol

That'll work. I got a blank screen.!!! :laugh:

 

[aslan]

Speaking of malfunctions…

I made an appalling, and embarrassing, discovery yesterday. My program has been mishandling the results every time I take insurance. All my results so far are invalid.

I’m going to start over once I figure out how to fix whatever is wrong. So my results so far should be zero hands played with zero dollars won or lost. Sorry, guys.

The couple of you that got a copy of my program should just junk it. THIS is the exact reason I asked you not to pass it on to anyone else.

Can't you make a side calculation to figure out how much it would have changed things. At least get a ball park figure? My program doesn't even allow insurance. So far it hasn't set me back.

 

[Canceler]

Can't you make a side calculation to figure out how much it would have changed things. At least get a ball park figure?

I don't think so. I have no idea how many times I would have taken insurance, and, of course, the dollar amount would be substantial. Plus, after I take insurance, if I win the hand, I don't seem to get any credit for it. If I lose, I lose double. Or some damn thing. #$%$&!

 

[sagefr0g]

I don't think so. I have no idea how many times I would have taken insurance, and, of course, the dollar amount would be substantial. Plus, after I take insurance, if I win the hand, I don't seem to get any credit for it. If I lose, I lose double. Or some damn thing. #$%$&!

it probably could be figured out how many opportunities for taking insurance for how many hands played could be figured out. shouldn't be to many either as it's a relatively high count to take insurance. then i think your expected to win a relatively certain proportion of those bets.
so but again sorry about the glitch in your program.

 

[sagefr0g]

it's to be expected

12409 hands
up $46,460.00

 

[aslan]

Aslan's Report 7/20/08 3:43 a.m. EDT

Latest Session: Dollars $4,950 Hands 514

..............................Amount.......Hands
Previous..................$30,501......7,701
Latest Session...........$4,950.........514
Cumulative Total......$35,451.......8,215

You ain'ta gonna believe this, jj. Lol This was my best session yet I think. I might catch up with the Chez Fr0ggy if this keeps up! Where is that Mr. Fr0g anyway...I haven't seen him since Stalker showed up! Maybe, we should take the team to the real casinos...lol...Oops! I forgot, A $100,000 bankroll would help! Lol It's all downhill from here on in!