YEt another road trip

[bj bob]

So, let's see now...

Bojack1 is still mostly gone, Sonny is an a$$hole tangled in a web of lies, and zengrifter is, of course, a NEOPHYTE.

What's a person to believe in anymore?

Slight correction: Zengrifter is a HYBRID NEOPHITE.

 

[Mimosine]

And don't forget all of the vulgar insults I've been removing! I got so tired that I actually stopped removing the ones about me since his rebuttals don't make much sense without them. If you remove all of the personal attacks and profanity you aren't left with many words.

-Sonny-

if he's flagrantly violating any of the forum rules you should give him a 3 day biggyBAN!

 

[zengrifter]

Slight correction: Zengrifter is a HYBRID NEOPHITE.

ELITE HYBRID NEOPHYTE. zg

 

[Sonny]

if he's flagrantly violating any of the forum rules you should give him a 3 day biggyBAN!

I’m trying to give him the benefit of the doubt here. He has a right to defend himself and his beliefs, but if he can’t do it civilly then I will have to take action.

-Sonny-

 

[positiveEV]

And on the one occassion it came up, i had the smarts to analyze the situation and i made the right call. (this goes back to the initial post i made about the day i had those 77s)

So this is what you call a smart analyze?

Now i have a bet of about 350 up (yes that was part of a stupid cover play)
and i start moaning and groaning and i say to the ploppy. "ok guy, i am about to make the stupidest play ever..I know its stupid, never ever do this..)


I split the sevens!!!!:laugh:

...

Of course this ploppy had no concept of the stupidity of my gamble so he was high fiving me saying that was a great play man!!!(he couldnt know that i knew that i was gonna catch a 10 if i hit those double 7s..)

He just thought i was a very clever black jack player...:grin:


Meanwhile i am coloring out my chips in a rush to get out of the joint to the moans and groans from two other people who had just sat down after witnessing my unbelievably stupid play..

What about the moaning guys? Do you often get yelled at after making a basic strategy move, especially when it causes the table to win?

 

[shadroch]

But he KNEW he was going to catch a ten if he hit them.

 

[person1125]

But he KNEW he was going to catch a ten if he hit them.

yup he looked into a crystal ball and saw the future.

the other day I had an 11 vs dealer 6. I doubled down cause I KNEW I was going to get a 10 for a 21!!

 

[sagefr0g]

When you posted that question, i actually thought you were asking sort of a rhetorical question for the purpose of debating the logic in guestimating the count rather than just counting it.

thats understandable. but yeah i'm really interested in the subject. i do understand the liabilities involved in such a tact.

Its essentially the same thing. Some people have good memories and are good at storing pictorial data instantly, others are good at.

unfortunately neither of those are my strong suit. but i've always had a bent towards good estimation skills and a sensitivity for symetry or the lack there of. like the detective Monk on tv if 'things aren't just so' i'm compulsively on to it. over the couple of years that i did use orthodox counting methods i developed a sensitivity to the sense that 'there is something rotten in Denmark' when it comes to blackjack ie. such as when the count isn't positive you can just about hang it up baby. on the other hand i developed a
real healthy respect for positive counts and just how rare and tenuous the advantage afforded is of those counts. talking six deck games here. evaluating the game on a round by round basis through guestimation is beautifully simple. the problem i'm having is knowing the cumulative value of the game after a series of rounds have passed. the picture becomes pretty darned hazy as the rounds go by. especially if the actual true count is going up and down a lot as opposed to a fairly steady climb or fall. then there is the problem of how to ramp your bets with a hazely percieved positive true count. i look for unusually large jumps in the RC for a round of around +3 or +4 and if that happens a couple of rounds in a row or in a series of rounds where no RC change occurs besides a couple of +3 or +4 RC's i know things are getting juicy or if three or four rounds go by where the RC goes +1 or +2 per round.
all the while watching the discard tray so as to know how many decks are left unseen.
under these circumstances you can start ramping up your bets and continue watching on a round by round basis to see how the count is changing.
the other thing that i do is to make sure that the shoe i'm playing is at least positve. i'll let it go maybe tc -1 or tc -0 for a few rounds but any lower or more rounds pass by then i'm out of Dodge. also if the true is zero or minus one and i get a RC of -4 or lower for any given round then i'll wong out. i'm saying these RC values in this post as if i'm counting the RC but actually i can just see it by just watching the cards on the table rather than actually counting out the RC.
it's kind of like hearding cats ...:joker: :cat: :joker:

 

[biggamejames]

thats understandable. but yeah i'm really interested in the subject. i do understand the liabilities involved in such a tact.

unfortunately neither of those are my strong suit. but i've always had a bent towards good estimation skills and a sensitivity for symetry or the lack there of. like the detective Monk on tv if 'things aren't just so' i'm compulsively on to it. over the couple of years that i did use orthodox counting methods i developed a sensitivity to the sense that 'there is something rotten in Denmark' when it comes to blackjack ie. such as when the count isn't positive you can just about hang it up baby. on the other hand i developed a
real healthy respect for positive counts and just how rare and tenuous the advantage afforded is of those counts. talking six deck games here. evaluating the game on a round by round basis through guestimation is beautifully simple. the problem i'm having is knowing the cumulative value of the game after a series of rounds have passed. the picture becomes pretty darned hazy as the rounds go by. especially if the actual true count is going up and down a lot as opposed to a fairly steady climb or fall. then there is the problem of how to ramp your bets with a hazely percieved positive true count. i look for unusually large jumps in the RC for a round of around +3 or +4 and if that happens a couple of rounds in a row or in a series of rounds where no RC change occurs besides a couple of +3 or +4 RC's i know things are getting juicy or if three or four rounds go by where the RC goes +1 or +2 per round.
all the while watching the discard tray so as to know how many decks are left unseen.
under these circumstances you can start ramping up your bets and continue watching on a round by round basis to see how the count is changing.
the other thing that i do is to make sure that the shoe i'm playing is at least positve. i'll let it go maybe tc -1 or tc -0 for a few rounds but any lower or more rounds pass by then i'm out of Dodge. also if the true is zero or minus one and i get a RC of -4 or lower for any given round then i'll wong out. i'm saying these RC values in this post as if i'm counting the RC but actually i can just see it by just watching the cards on the table rather than actually counting out the RC.
it's kind of like hearding cats ...:joker: :cat: :joker:

I only play SD or DD. Those are much easier to both count or even guestimate.

Trust me...on recent trips i am finding it much harder to play dumb and stop myself from taking insurance during a positive count knowing full well the dealer has a BJ..(this after having taken insurance about 5 times in previous decks with a positive count. You know if you keep taking it you are are gonna get caught very easily)

the worst case is when you have a ridiculously bad hand like a 15 during a +7 count and you know the the deck is 10 rich. If you take the insurance and the dealer shows a a BJ then the Pit boss is on to you if you flip over a 15.

If you dont take insurance, you risk losing a high value bet (being that your bet would have increased with the high positive count)..

With the drama i have had to deal with lately, it looks like i may have to tackle the multi decks. But from the threads i have seen here, i dont see how multidecks can provide any more cover than SD or DD.

 

[biggamejames]

So this is what you call a smart analyze?



What about the moaning guys? Do you often get yelled at after making a basic strategy move, especially when it causes the table to win?

Actually that statement refers to those people who sat down after seeing my good luck. They were not moaning because of the play. They were moaning because they believe in karma and all that b/s and hate to see what they think to be a lucky player leave.

 

[biggamejames]

I’m simply trying to correct your errors. You say that not knowing proper BS (splitting 7,7 vs. 7 and hitting A,8) doesn’t make a difference. It does. You say that bad players at the table will hurt you. They don’t. You say that “cold” tables and “paying” dealers will help you. They don’t. You say that such superstitious beliefs do not hurt you. They do. You say that the risk of overbetting at high counts is minimal. It is not. You say that smart gamblers will use stop-loss bankrolls to “press their play.” They don’t.

I apologize if you’re sick of my pompous, obtuse and “flatulent” lectures, but some people on this board want to learn more about this game. Some people don’t ignore the “mundane” math and actually learn something from it. I’ll continue to post it for their benefit despite it being wasted on you.

-Sonny-

I have never said that superstitious beliefs wont hurt you....If you find that please post it


Did you just post that paying dealers dont help?

You say that “cold” tables and “paying” dealers will help you. They don’t.

:laugh:


If a dealer is on a paying streak, i dont see how that doesnt help you.

 

[RJT]

Go on preaching..I am sure many are taking you seriously.

Thankfully most of us can't take you very seriously.

RJT.