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I know this is an old post. Ive read some of these and am curious. Through observation and the probability somehow favoring the dealer. And I don’t mean by percent alone as in the amount of decks and the hitting or standing on soft 17. I mean it’s like those casinos have a special witch doctor looming behind the scenes. The spread of cards sometimes seems astronomically improbable, such as last night where the dealer gets 4 aces in a row with kings. Now this is a reputable casino of course. I digress. So my question is. I’ve read the charts and such for increasing win percentages by using accurate basic strategy. But wait. What planet did those stats come from? If I stand on a dealers up card of 2-6 with a 14, 15, 16 for example, I almost always lose and dealer won’t bust. And he beats me with some ridiculous number either just one more or by far. So when sometimes I hit on a 13 and a 5 or 6 up card I’m of course much heckled and chastised by the players who think they know how to really play (but they all bet like random bobbleheads). And FYI off topic I despise not many things but hindsight strategists I call them.
“shoulda hit 3 rounds ago… ” I say.. “Shoulda told me what card I had then coming next and what card I have coming now.” lol But for the most part. Not trusting the dealers cards. I’ve won. My problem is too my lack of patience and maintaining and ultimately betting more than I think not commanding my brain to think of the next dealer streak. But I also play two hands as it seems more safe , until a loss streak. I’m new mostly and don’t mean to discount anything of this or any post and or anyone’s skill, knowledge and professionalism of the game. I simply just can’t get down counting because it’s just too fast (even though I play piano lightning fast) and with the HiLo numbers and running and true count, I’ll just say I couldn’t add dived and solve for X like that. Especially quick dealers. Maybe I’ll find a slow one. Lol Any additional advice at this point would be helpful. Mostly just want to bet more safely and practically. I understand your post above about the 2500. I did read it lol I’m just more asking for anyones advice on what they might use personally and what works and hasn’t worked. . Forgive the long post. Thank you all.
¡Muchas gracias por toda la ayuda GM! Sois geniales.
Tengo dos preguntas:
Actualmente vivo a una hora de Tunica y me preguntaba si es mejor empezar a intentar dominar el conteo hi-lo con un juego de zapato o hi-opt I para juego individual/DD?
Además, he leído algo de "BJ for Blood" y me preguntaba qué pensabas de Omega II.
20,605 hands played +6027. I should be up more but I lost some EV due to not having enough chips to double and take insurance when I was playing a 25 dollar min 1-12 spread(high for DD) since my max is $300 with that max it’s easy to bust a 1k starting bank roll that the trainer only allows.
Hola Ken,
Acabo de recibir las tarjetas de estrategia avanzada y algunos (pero no todos) de los números para el juego H17 de 2 mazos son diferentes de los que he visto en otros sitios. Vi en alguna parte (creo que Norm W. escribió en su foro) que se deben utilizar índices basados en el mismo método de derivación de conteo verdadero que se utiliza para contar. Actualmente estoy utilizando el suelo y me pregunto: 1) Que metodo de conteo verdadero usaste para llegar a estos numeros y 2) Si crees que esta es la razon de las diferencias en algunos pero no todos los numeros. ¡La mayoría están dentro de un número entero, pero algunos son muy diferentes .... por ejemplo, en otros lugares para este juego que he visto el índice de 12 vs 6 es -3, sin embargo usted lo tiene en la tarjeta como -6! Obviamente, esta es una gran diferencia y podría resultar en una $$ ganado o perdido así que me pregunto si usted puede aclarar las cosas. Muchas gracias.
En primer lugar, comprueba de nuevo en la tarjeta el índice 12v6. En la tarjeta 2DH17 es -3, no -6 como mencionas. (De hecho, las tarjetas sólo muestran índices entre -5 y +5).
Los índices se crearon mediante un largo proceso iterativo utilizando el CVData de Norm. Algunas decisiones son bastante parecidas, por lo que diferencias muy pequeñas en los supuestos pueden crear una diferencia de 1 o incluso 2 puntos. En esos casos, en realidad no es tan importante, porque el mero hecho de que estén tan cerca significa que la diferencia en EV es minúscula. Creo que estos son los mejores índices que he podido crear. He dedicado muchas horas al proceso. Hice varias rondas hasta que los números dejaron de cambiar. (En realidad, cada índice depende de los generados a continuación).
Para responder a su pregunta principal...
Los índices de tarjetas se generan por el suelo de la cuenta real. Sólo para refrescar la memoria de todos, floor(2.9) = 2, floor(-2.9) = -3.
I had the same problem, and I don’t have an answer.
If anyone wants to tackle updating this excellent project so it is compatible with the latest versions of .NET and Windows, it has been open-sourced here: https://github.com/mustgoplay/MGPs-BJ-CA
Hola Ken,
The Casino (ENHC) that I visit has a good rule – if the player splits or doubles & the dealer gets Blackjack, the player only loses the 1st bet, so this will change the Basic Strategy a little. I’m guessing that in this case I should double a hard 10 against dealers 10, but not sure about splitting Aces against a dealers Ace? Oh, I should also mention that you can only split to two hands.
Gracias.
Question about black jack what if the dealer sees the player has over 21 which was the case in my situation and I had 15 and I hit and got an ace and i stayed. Is it the same???
The dealer cannot vary strategy. He hits until he has 17 or higher, and then stands. (The only exception is that many casinos have the dealer hit a soft 17 as well.)
Jake,
yes, the variations change according to the true count. However 16 vs 10 changes from hit to stand at even a plus 1 running count and 12 vs 4 , 9 vs 3 , A2 vs 5 , 3,3 vs 2, A4 vs 4 change at even a -1 running count. You then continue to calculate the the variations based on the true count… so +1 t.c = A7 vs 2, A7 vs A, A8 vs 6, 11 vs A and A3 vs 4.
If you play long enough the chance of you losing actually becomes less likely than you getting hit by a car or dying on your way to the casino. If you have an advantage, lets say 1% and you were to play 100 thousand hands the probability of you ending up behind is probably less than 1/100,000. That’s a conservative number as well, very conservative. Doesn’t sound like gambling to me.
This software seems really biased. 9 out 10 of the games the TC are really low. Did anyone have the same issue? Or the software is rigged?
I know this is an old post. Ive read some of these and am curious. Through observation and the probability somehow favoring the dealer. And I don’t mean by percent alone as in the amount of decks and the hitting or standing on soft 17. I mean it’s like those casinos have a special witch doctor looming behind the scenes. The spread of cards sometimes seems astronomically improbable, such as last night where the dealer gets 4 aces in a row with kings. Now this is a reputable casino of course. I digress. So my question is. I’ve read the charts and such for increasing win percentages by using accurate basic strategy. But wait. What planet did those stats come from? If I stand on a dealers up card of 2-6 with a 14, 15, 16 for example, I almost always lose and dealer won’t bust. And he beats me with some ridiculous number either just one more or by far. So when sometimes I hit on a 13 and a 5 or 6 up card I’m of course much heckled and chastised by the players who think they know how to really play (but they all bet like random bobbleheads). And FYI off topic I despise not many things but hindsight strategists I call them.
“shoulda hit 3 rounds ago… ” I say.. “Shoulda told me what card I had then coming next and what card I have coming now.” lol But for the most part. Not trusting the dealers cards. I’ve won. My problem is too my lack of patience and maintaining and ultimately betting more than I think not commanding my brain to think of the next dealer streak. But I also play two hands as it seems more safe , until a loss streak. I’m new mostly and don’t mean to discount anything of this or any post and or anyone’s skill, knowledge and professionalism of the game. I simply just can’t get down counting because it’s just too fast (even though I play piano lightning fast) and with the HiLo numbers and running and true count, I’ll just say I couldn’t add dived and solve for X like that. Especially quick dealers. Maybe I’ll find a slow one. Lol Any additional advice at this point would be helpful. Mostly just want to bet more safely and practically. I understand your post above about the 2500. I did read it lol I’m just more asking for anyones advice on what they might use personally and what works and hasn’t worked. . Forgive the long post. Thank you all.
Benjamin CA
¡Muchas gracias por toda la ayuda GM! Sois geniales.
Tengo dos preguntas:
Actualmente vivo a una hora de Tunica y me preguntaba si es mejor empezar a intentar dominar el conteo hi-lo con un juego de zapato o hi-opt I para juego individual/DD?
Además, he leído algo de "BJ for Blood" y me preguntaba qué pensabas de Omega II.
Gracias por todo lo que hacéis.
Where can I get a list of major tournaments in MS thanks
20,605 hands played +6027. I should be up more but I lost some EV due to not having enough chips to double and take insurance when I was playing a 25 dollar min 1-12 spread(high for DD) since my max is $300 with that max it’s easy to bust a 1k starting bank roll that the trainer only allows.
Hola Ken,
Acabo de recibir las tarjetas de estrategia avanzada y algunos (pero no todos) de los números para el juego H17 de 2 mazos son diferentes de los que he visto en otros sitios. Vi en alguna parte (creo que Norm W. escribió en su foro) que se deben utilizar índices basados en el mismo método de derivación de conteo verdadero que se utiliza para contar. Actualmente estoy utilizando el suelo y me pregunto: 1) Que metodo de conteo verdadero usaste para llegar a estos numeros y 2) Si crees que esta es la razon de las diferencias en algunos pero no todos los numeros. ¡La mayoría están dentro de un número entero, pero algunos son muy diferentes .... por ejemplo, en otros lugares para este juego que he visto el índice de 12 vs 6 es -3, sin embargo usted lo tiene en la tarjeta como -6! Obviamente, esta es una gran diferencia y podría resultar en una $$ ganado o perdido así que me pregunto si usted puede aclarar las cosas. Muchas gracias.
En primer lugar, comprueba de nuevo en la tarjeta el índice 12v6. En la tarjeta 2DH17 es -3, no -6 como mencionas. (De hecho, las tarjetas sólo muestran índices entre -5 y +5).
Los índices se crearon mediante un largo proceso iterativo utilizando el CVData de Norm. Algunas decisiones son bastante parecidas, por lo que diferencias muy pequeñas en los supuestos pueden crear una diferencia de 1 o incluso 2 puntos. En esos casos, en realidad no es tan importante, porque el mero hecho de que estén tan cerca significa que la diferencia en EV es minúscula. Creo que estos son los mejores índices que he podido crear. He dedicado muchas horas al proceso. Hice varias rondas hasta que los números dejaron de cambiar. (En realidad, cada índice depende de los generados a continuación).
Para responder a su pregunta principal...
Los índices de tarjetas se generan por el suelo de la cuenta real. Sólo para refrescar la memoria de todos, floor(2.9) = 2, floor(-2.9) = -3.
Since a recent windows 10/64 bits update program seem to crash immediately and silently.
Fine on Windows 10/32 bits.
I had the same problem, and I don’t have an answer.
If anyone wants to tackle updating this excellent project so it is compatible with the latest versions of .NET and Windows, it has been open-sourced here:
https://github.com/mustgoplay/MGPs-BJ-CA
While awaiting this miracle we can use a virtual machine as a workaround
I simply deleted .Net 1.1 which was previously needed and now it works fine !
Strange because normally the versions of .Net are independent.
That’s great news! I’ll give it a try.
Hola Ken,
The Casino (ENHC) that I visit has a good rule – if the player splits or doubles & the dealer gets Blackjack, the player only loses the 1st bet, so this will change the Basic Strategy a little. I’m guessing that in this case I should double a hard 10 against dealers 10, but not sure about splitting Aces against a dealers Ace? Oh, I should also mention that you can only split to two hands.
Gracias.
Just use the “peek” strategy instead of “no-peek”. This game is effectively just like the normal US hole-card game.
Question about black jack what if the dealer sees the player has over 21 which was the case in my situation and I had 15 and I hit and got an ace and i stayed. Is it the same???
The dealer cannot vary strategy. He hits until he has 17 or higher, and then stands. (The only exception is that many casinos have the dealer hit a soft 17 as well.)
Sí, ¿quién quiere saberlo?
Jake,
yes, the variations change according to the true count. However 16 vs 10 changes from hit to stand at even a plus 1 running count and 12 vs 4 , 9 vs 3 , A2 vs 5 , 3,3 vs 2, A4 vs 4 change at even a -1 running count. You then continue to calculate the the variations based on the true count… so +1 t.c = A7 vs 2, A7 vs A, A8 vs 6, 11 vs A and A3 vs 4.
Well said.
If you play long enough the chance of you losing actually becomes less likely than you getting hit by a car or dying on your way to the casino. If you have an advantage, lets say 1% and you were to play 100 thousand hands the probability of you ending up behind is probably less than 1/100,000. That’s a conservative number as well, very conservative. Doesn’t sound like gambling to me.