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I win every time I go to a casino, and I do it without counting cards. I would play more, but I feel like I would get banned if I kept winning at my current pace (at the one place that I play now).
I doubled my seed money in 5 hours playing a consistent 1/20 seed money bet.
It sounds like you are using a progression, perhaps a Martingale where you double up until you win a hand, which produces a profit for the series equal to your initial bet. You don’t have to worry about being banned for that. In fact, quite the opposite. Unfortunately, you also don’t have to worry about continuing to win for the long term. You will eventually hit a long enough streak of losses to wipe you out, and your net result will be negative. You cannot create a winning expectation by making any sequence of negative expectation bets. It just doesn’t work that way.
Nope, not progressive. I bet the same every time. The tables that I play have a max bet just 8x greater than my typical bet. So counting splits, doubles, etc., I would be broke in no time if I were doing progressive.
I could’ve been just really lucky in the past, but how many times or how much money can I win before they start to notice?
I wouldn’t worry. If you are flat-betting with nothing else going on, you’ve just been lucky. As a flat-bettor, you can win a lot before they get worried. In bigger places, $50K cumulative win might be a problem. But if they don’t see anything suspicious in your play, think six figures. In small places that really sweat the money, it can be tough to win $10K without issues, even for players that appear to just be lucky. For this question, your mileage may vary.
Allora, mi stavo chiedendo alcune cose, non riesco a trovare una tabella di deviazione gratuita per le mie regole di gioco... dappertutto chiedono soldi... qualche idea su dove posso trovarne una gratuita? Sto cercando 6-8 mazzi di carte in cui il banco colpisce morbido 17 e raddoppia dopo la divisione.
Inoltre avevo un'altra cosa a cui stavo pensando ultimamente, quando ho un soft 18 contro i dealer 3 4 5 6 raddoppio il dealer 7 rimango e contro un 9 10 A colpisco Ho appena scoperto che dovrei raddoppiare anche contro un 2, tuttavia il soft 18 contro un dealer 8 dice stand, stavo pensando che vorrei colpire questo per un colpo gratuito? e il 18 non è una mano perdente? Il soft 17 contro il 7 che ho colpito come colpo gratuito non lo tratto allo stesso modo del 18 contro l'8? Inoltre... quando ho un soft 18 innaturale contro il 2-6 del dealer, ci sono diverse giocate per ognuno di questi? Ad esempio... se ho un A-2 contro il 4 del dealer, la strategia di base prevede un colpo, se ottengo un 5 e ho l'8 o il 18, voglio fermarmi lì o migliorare la mia mano? Per qualche motivo pensavo di continuare a migliorarla, ma immagino che dovrei fermarmi... ma questo cambia se il conteggio è ricco di carte alte o basse?
Con un 18 morbido composto da 3 o più carte, ovviamente non puoi più raddoppiare, quindi utilizza la strategia di ripiego appropriata in base alla tabella. Con (A,3,4) contro un 4 del banco, ad esempio, dovresti stare. Il grafici da questo sito mostrano che "DS", ovvero Double if you can, else Stand.
Hai anche chiesto perché dovresti stare con il soft 18 contro l'8. Beh, il potenziale push è una parte importante di questo, ma in generale cerca di non preoccuparti troppo del "perché" della strategia di base. Funziona semplicemente così. Tecnicamente, ecco i risultati con A7v8: stare in piedi rende in media 0,108, colpire rende solo 0,041.
Hello there Ken!
Very, very useful website, and very, very useful replies from you. Thank you!
I have one question: Should i only join the tables that are starting the new shoe (no cards dealt)? So, I’m supposed to walk around and watch when the all cards are dealt, and then sit and play?
And, if I’m playing a 6-deck shoe, immidiately when the true count goes minus 1, i am supposed to walk away? That will happen pretty often right? You said before that it’s happening very often in a double deck game, but i assume that it’s happening in 6-deck as well?
I will probably have a bunch of questions for you in coming weeks, so be prepared 🙂 🙂
Yes, if you leave every 6-deck shoe at -1, you’ll be walking a lot. I personally never left at that minor a negative count. But if you can do it, it does really help the expected results. In 2-deck games, you can afford to play through a lot more negative counts and still have very good overall results. That is why the majority of my play has been at 2-deck games. They are simply a lot easier to beat.
As for sitting down at a shoe already in progress, there’s no problem with it, although you are less likely to reach a positive situation. It’s like playing a game with poor penetration until the first shuffle. Just treat any discards when you begin as unseen decks, just like the cards still in the shoe. For that reason, it’s simpler and better to just come in immediately after a shuffle instead. But you don’t have to wait if you don’t want.
My casino rules are : surrender(im not sure if it’s early or late), 6-deck game, stand on S17(not sure either), 3 splits allowed, double any 2 cards, double after split allowed. Blackjack pay 3:2.
AND: Blackjack with the same symbol of the cards (hearts for example) pays 2:1.
If the box has value of “21” with 7 cards in the box, it pays 5:1.
If there are three sevens with the same symbol in the box, it pays 5:1.
I think those are pretty good rules. Maybe even slight edge is on my side?
Can you tell me what should i change in my basic strategy because of the “AND” part above?
Also, my main question is:
Bet spread is 2$ – 100$ here. Can you tell me what is the minimum bankroll for a 3h play? I read in GameMaster’s school that it should be 50x top bet, but i suppose that’s because the bet spread there was 5$-50$ which is pretty bad. I don’t have 5000$ dollars. I have like 500$ maximum. I want to train for a couple of months, and then go to the casino, and see what can I do. I hope there won’t be that losing streak right away. But I’m fully aware of it.
And if I am able to stay disciplined, and focused, i will probably go in the casino with much bigger bankroll, after some decent time of practice.
But I’m asking you if 200-300-500$ is enough for this first time, with this 2$-100$ betting spread, or I should just wait, and save more money?
Suited blackjack paying 2:1 adds 0.57% to the game. The base game you describe is around -0.58% if H17, or -0.36% if S17.
Suited 777 paying 5:1 adds only 0.008%, and 7-card 21 is probably less than that.
The overall net is a breakeven basic strategy game for H17, and +0.22% for S17 games. That’s a nice base advantage for the game.
The only strategy change is don’t split your 7s if they are suited. Hit for the possible 5:1.
If you are betting a top bet of $100, even if you are willing to take the risk of losing the bank, you need to have the table stakes to double and split as needed. Long term, I’m more conservative than the GameMaster. I advocate a full bankroll of 100X your top bet instead of his 50x. But for short-term plays, accepting the very high risk of losing your entire stake, I still would not sit down at the table with less than 10 times my expected top bet for the session. And I would never make a single bet that I couldn’t afford to split and double on the two hands.
Sorry Ken, one more question, so you can answer them at once.
You said in previous replies in this topic that someone should stand on a true count 4 and 15 vs dealer’s 10? That’s not what basic strategy says. I mean, basic strategy doesn’t correlate to counting in any way. So I am wondering, what do you actually mean? I didn’t read whole “GameMaster’s school ” yet, so i suppose these are some of the advanced strategies?
Best regards man, and i apologize for being boring.
Basic strategy says hit 15vT. But card counters who know the deck is full of high cards (with a true count of +4 or higher) can utilize that information to know that standing is now better than hitting in that case. Each strategy decision has a tipping point like this (an index number), where the strategy changes if the remaining deck composition is far enough from average. But by all means, focus first on getting basic strategy down cold. When I started, I used card counting for over a year with just basic strategy before I added strategy changes to my game.
I’m in Brazil, where casinos are forbidden. So, I need to play in online casinos, using the live blackjack mode. The rules of the casino are: 8-deck game, cut off in the 50% of the shoe, stand on S17, double any 2 cards, double after split allowed, except for the double Aces (only one addition card). Blackjack pays 3:2.
My question is: With these conditions, is it possible to beat the dealer?
An 8-deck 50% game is very tough, but it could be beaten with a large enough spread if you are also willing to leave in any negative count. It’s going to be a frustrating grind, and because the edge will be so small, you could play perfectly for many hundreds of hours and still be behind due to bad luck. I wouldn’t waste time on this game.
I just started counting cards and i found 2 casinos with good rules but i don’t know which is better. In both casinos the dealer stands on S17, double on any 2 pairs is allowed, resplitting is allowed and after splitting aces you get one card and black jack pays 3:2. But the first one is an 8-deck with 85% penetration while the other is 4-deck with 65-75% penetration. Which one should i prefer?
The off-the-top difference between 4 decks and 8 decks is only around 0.1%.
Because the penetration is so much better on your 8-deck game, I would choose the 8-deck game for card counting.
(Just to be clear: Basic strategy players would be better off in the 4-deck game, since penetration doesn’t matter to them.)
Ciao Ken, ho una domanda.
Nella vostra matrice di base scrivete di dividere gli 8,8 contro un T o un A, ma in una matrice per un casinò del Regno Unito dovreste semplicemente colpire. Qual è la differenza tra i due?
Nel Regno Unito, il croupier non distribuisce una carta in buca e qualsiasi raddoppio o split è vulnerabile a un possibile blackjack del croupier. Negli Stati Uniti, il croupier verifica la presenza di un blackjack immediatamente prima dell'inizio del gioco, quindi non è possibile raddoppiare o dividere se il croupier ha un blackjack. Questa differenza rende poco saggio raddoppiare o dividere nel Regno Unito quando il banco ha un dieci o un asso. Un'eccezione: Nel Regno Unito è ancora possibile dividere gli Assi contro un dieci del banco.
Per ottenere la strategia appropriata per questi giochi, è possibile utilizzare la funzione Motore strategico e scegliere "No Peek".
Hey all,
I win every time I go to a casino, and I do it without counting cards. I would play more, but I feel like I would get banned if I kept winning at my current pace (at the one place that I play now).
I doubled my seed money in 5 hours playing a consistent 1/20 seed money bet.
It sounds like you are using a progression, perhaps a Martingale where you double up until you win a hand, which produces a profit for the series equal to your initial bet. You don’t have to worry about being banned for that. In fact, quite the opposite. Unfortunately, you also don’t have to worry about continuing to win for the long term. You will eventually hit a long enough streak of losses to wipe you out, and your net result will be negative. You cannot create a winning expectation by making any sequence of negative expectation bets. It just doesn’t work that way.
Nope, not progressive. I bet the same every time. The tables that I play have a max bet just 8x greater than my typical bet. So counting splits, doubles, etc., I would be broke in no time if I were doing progressive.
I could’ve been just really lucky in the past, but how many times or how much money can I win before they start to notice?
Grazie.
I wouldn’t worry. If you are flat-betting with nothing else going on, you’ve just been lucky. As a flat-bettor, you can win a lot before they get worried. In bigger places, $50K cumulative win might be a problem. But if they don’t see anything suspicious in your play, think six figures. In small places that really sweat the money, it can be tough to win $10K without issues, even for players that appear to just be lucky. For this question, your mileage may vary.
Very interesting. Thanks for the words of wisdom, Ken.
Allora, mi stavo chiedendo alcune cose, non riesco a trovare una tabella di deviazione gratuita per le mie regole di gioco... dappertutto chiedono soldi... qualche idea su dove posso trovarne una gratuita? Sto cercando 6-8 mazzi di carte in cui il banco colpisce morbido 17 e raddoppia dopo la divisione.
Inoltre avevo un'altra cosa a cui stavo pensando ultimamente, quando ho un soft 18 contro i dealer 3 4 5 6 raddoppio il dealer 7 rimango e contro un 9 10 A colpisco Ho appena scoperto che dovrei raddoppiare anche contro un 2, tuttavia il soft 18 contro un dealer 8 dice stand, stavo pensando che vorrei colpire questo per un colpo gratuito? e il 18 non è una mano perdente? Il soft 17 contro il 7 che ho colpito come colpo gratuito non lo tratto allo stesso modo del 18 contro l'8? Inoltre... quando ho un soft 18 innaturale contro il 2-6 del dealer, ci sono diverse giocate per ognuno di questi? Ad esempio... se ho un A-2 contro il 4 del dealer, la strategia di base prevede un colpo, se ottengo un 5 e ho l'8 o il 18, voglio fermarmi lì o migliorare la mia mano? Per qualche motivo pensavo di continuare a migliorarla, ma immagino che dovrei fermarmi... ma questo cambia se il conteggio è ricco di carte alte o basse?
Con un 18 morbido composto da 3 o più carte, ovviamente non puoi più raddoppiare, quindi utilizza la strategia di ripiego appropriata in base alla tabella. Con (A,3,4) contro un 4 del banco, ad esempio, dovresti stare. Il grafici da questo sito mostrano che "DS", ovvero Double if you can, else Stand.
Hai anche chiesto perché dovresti stare con il soft 18 contro l'8. Beh, il potenziale push è una parte importante di questo, ma in generale cerca di non preoccuparti troppo del "perché" della strategia di base. Funziona semplicemente così. Tecnicamente, ecco i risultati con A7v8: stare in piedi rende in media 0,108, colpire rende solo 0,041.
Hello there Ken!
Very, very useful website, and very, very useful replies from you. Thank you!
I have one question: Should i only join the tables that are starting the new shoe (no cards dealt)? So, I’m supposed to walk around and watch when the all cards are dealt, and then sit and play?
And, if I’m playing a 6-deck shoe, immidiately when the true count goes minus 1, i am supposed to walk away? That will happen pretty often right? You said before that it’s happening very often in a double deck game, but i assume that it’s happening in 6-deck as well?
I will probably have a bunch of questions for you in coming weeks, so be prepared 🙂 🙂
Thank you again, really!
Yes, if you leave every 6-deck shoe at -1, you’ll be walking a lot. I personally never left at that minor a negative count. But if you can do it, it does really help the expected results. In 2-deck games, you can afford to play through a lot more negative counts and still have very good overall results. That is why the majority of my play has been at 2-deck games. They are simply a lot easier to beat.
As for sitting down at a shoe already in progress, there’s no problem with it, although you are less likely to reach a positive situation. It’s like playing a game with poor penetration until the first shuffle. Just treat any discards when you begin as unseen decks, just like the cards still in the shoe. For that reason, it’s simpler and better to just come in immediately after a shuffle instead. But you don’t have to wait if you don’t want.
Hello Ken.
My casino rules are : surrender(im not sure if it’s early or late), 6-deck game, stand on S17(not sure either), 3 splits allowed, double any 2 cards, double after split allowed. Blackjack pay 3:2.
AND: Blackjack with the same symbol of the cards (hearts for example) pays 2:1.
If the box has value of “21” with 7 cards in the box, it pays 5:1.
If there are three sevens with the same symbol in the box, it pays 5:1.
I think those are pretty good rules. Maybe even slight edge is on my side?
Can you tell me what should i change in my basic strategy because of the “AND” part above?
Also, my main question is:
Bet spread is 2$ – 100$ here. Can you tell me what is the minimum bankroll for a 3h play? I read in GameMaster’s school that it should be 50x top bet, but i suppose that’s because the bet spread there was 5$-50$ which is pretty bad. I don’t have 5000$ dollars. I have like 500$ maximum. I want to train for a couple of months, and then go to the casino, and see what can I do. I hope there won’t be that losing streak right away. But I’m fully aware of it.
And if I am able to stay disciplined, and focused, i will probably go in the casino with much bigger bankroll, after some decent time of practice.
But I’m asking you if 200-300-500$ is enough for this first time, with this 2$-100$ betting spread, or I should just wait, and save more money?
Sorry for the long post.
Thank you for everything.
Suited blackjack paying 2:1 adds 0.57% to the game. The base game you describe is around -0.58% if H17, or -0.36% if S17.
Suited 777 paying 5:1 adds only 0.008%, and 7-card 21 is probably less than that.
The overall net is a breakeven basic strategy game for H17, and +0.22% for S17 games. That’s a nice base advantage for the game.
The only strategy change is don’t split your 7s if they are suited. Hit for the possible 5:1.
If you are betting a top bet of $100, even if you are willing to take the risk of losing the bank, you need to have the table stakes to double and split as needed. Long term, I’m more conservative than the GameMaster. I advocate a full bankroll of 100X your top bet instead of his 50x. But for short-term plays, accepting the very high risk of losing your entire stake, I still would not sit down at the table with less than 10 times my expected top bet for the session. And I would never make a single bet that I couldn’t afford to split and double on the two hands.
Sorry Ken, one more question, so you can answer them at once.
You said in previous replies in this topic that someone should stand on a true count 4 and 15 vs dealer’s 10? That’s not what basic strategy says. I mean, basic strategy doesn’t correlate to counting in any way. So I am wondering, what do you actually mean? I didn’t read whole “GameMaster’s school ” yet, so i suppose these are some of the advanced strategies?
Best regards man, and i apologize for being boring.
Basic strategy says hit 15vT. But card counters who know the deck is full of high cards (with a true count of +4 or higher) can utilize that information to know that standing is now better than hitting in that case. Each strategy decision has a tipping point like this (an index number), where the strategy changes if the remaining deck composition is far enough from average. But by all means, focus first on getting basic strategy down cold. When I started, I used card counting for over a year with just basic strategy before I added strategy changes to my game.
I’m in Brazil, where casinos are forbidden. So, I need to play in online casinos, using the live blackjack mode. The rules of the casino are: 8-deck game, cut off in the 50% of the shoe, stand on S17, double any 2 cards, double after split allowed, except for the double Aces (only one addition card). Blackjack pays 3:2.
My question is: With these conditions, is it possible to beat the dealer?
An 8-deck 50% game is very tough, but it could be beaten with a large enough spread if you are also willing to leave in any negative count. It’s going to be a frustrating grind, and because the edge will be so small, you could play perfectly for many hundreds of hours and still be behind due to bad luck. I wouldn’t waste time on this game.
Please reply to my Email address a list of Vegas casinos that still have 3:2 tables and which casinos you recommend as best. Thanks.
Ciao Ken,
I just started counting cards and i found 2 casinos with good rules but i don’t know which is better. In both casinos the dealer stands on S17, double on any 2 pairs is allowed, resplitting is allowed and after splitting aces you get one card and black jack pays 3:2. But the first one is an 8-deck with 85% penetration while the other is 4-deck with 65-75% penetration. Which one should i prefer?
The off-the-top difference between 4 decks and 8 decks is only around 0.1%.
Because the penetration is so much better on your 8-deck game, I would choose the 8-deck game for card counting.
(Just to be clear: Basic strategy players would be better off in the 4-deck game, since penetration doesn’t matter to them.)
Ciao Ken, ho una domanda.
Nella vostra matrice di base scrivete di dividere gli 8,8 contro un T o un A, ma in una matrice per un casinò del Regno Unito dovreste semplicemente colpire. Qual è la differenza tra i due?
Nel Regno Unito, il croupier non distribuisce una carta in buca e qualsiasi raddoppio o split è vulnerabile a un possibile blackjack del croupier. Negli Stati Uniti, il croupier verifica la presenza di un blackjack immediatamente prima dell'inizio del gioco, quindi non è possibile raddoppiare o dividere se il croupier ha un blackjack. Questa differenza rende poco saggio raddoppiare o dividere nel Regno Unito quando il banco ha un dieci o un asso. Un'eccezione: Nel Regno Unito è ancora possibile dividere gli Assi contro un dieci del banco.
Per ottenere la strategia appropriata per questi giochi, è possibile utilizzare la funzione Motore strategico e scegliere "No Peek".