luck

[sagefr0g]

Not that it matters much, but I thought I downloaded the sheet you attached but I get slightly different results than you are getting?

You change the unit spread maybe from the one in the sheet? lol.

yes i did change unit spread. i was trying to simplify the original sheet you downloaded since it was originally set up for two sim's if you recall.
i didn't mess it up did i?
i had a dual intent for attaching it as i wanted to share it with one of the guys who went to the BJ BASH. by the way Kasi, where the heck was you? my wife was devastated you didn't show, lol.
please let me know if i messed the sheet up, cause i'll ask Sonny to wack it if i did and i'll try and get a good one posted in place of it.

 

[aslan]

No it means that you make $2612/29090 hands or $0.08979 per round.

Multiply that by 100/hds/hr and you have the $8.90/hr in The Wise One's latest pic lol.

Not sure where you got $11.13 from lol.

Just thought I'd add it also means that from The Wise One's latest pic, if your SD is $15.30/round, then sqrt of 29090*$15.30 also equals the $2612.

Whoooops!!! Wrong numerator and denominator--I had them flipped. Typical accountant! lol

 

[sagefr0g]

Whoooops!!! Wrong numerator and denominator--I had them flipped. Typical accountant! lol

i need a good CPA, lmao.:joker::whip:

 

[aslan]

i need a good CPA, lmao.:joker::whip:

I had a tax business on the side. People think it's unamerican NOT to cheat on their taxes! I had to tell them it was not worth risking my certification over. And the other extreme is so afraid of the IRS--I had a guy who the IRS wrote that he owed an additional $2,000. I figured his taxes and found that the IRS had lost his itemized deductions form. He refused to argue with the IRS and insisted on paying the extra $2,000.

 

[sagefr0g]

I had a tax business on the side. People think it's unamerican NOT to cheat on their taxes! I had to tell them it was not worth risking my certification over. And the other extreme is so afraid of the IRS--I had a guy who the IRS wrote that he owed an additional $2,000. I figured his taxes and found that the IRS had lost his itemized deductions form. He refused to argue with the IRS and insisted on paying the extra $2,000.

poor guy might of had a past, past, he was afraid they might dredge up.
no wonder yer so hard to argue with and such a card counter and all with that CPA maths stuff churning around in yer brain. (jus kidding)
how the heck can does one retain all that CPA stuff, or even pass the test in the first place? lol, if it was me i'd forget it five minutes after i learned it.

 

[aslan]

poor guy might of had a past, past, he was afraid they might dredge up.
no wonder yer so hard to argue with and such a card counter and all with that CPA maths stuff churning around in yer brain. (jus kidding)
how the heck can does one retain all that CPA stuff, or even pass the test in the first place? lol, if it was me i'd forget it five minutes after i learned it.

I'll tell you a little secret. I hate accounting! I was 32 when I started college, and by that time I just wanted a good job. I figured if splittin' logs was good enough for Abraham Lincoln, I could stand accounting in order to make a decent living. Going against your natural talents has its good side--it rounds you out, shores up your weaknesses.

 

[sagefr0g]

I'll tell you a little secret. I hate accounting! I was 32 when I started college, and by that time I just wanted a good job. I figured if splittin' logs was good enough for Abraham Lincoln, I could stand accounting in order to make a decent living. Going against your natural talents has its good side--it rounds you out, shores up your weaknesses.

i've heard passing that CPA qualification is super tough. hats off to you.

 

[aslan]

i've heard passing that CPA qualification is super tough. hats off to you.

Thanks. They only need so many CPAs so they actually design and curve the test to flunk applicants.

But all that was a million years ago! Since then, I've become fat, bald and dumb.

 

[Martin Gayle]

Luck, that's what happens when opportunity meets preparation.

 

[sagefr0g]

Luck, that's what happens when opportunity meets preparation.

right, that's why i tout the spread sheet in the link below and the knowledge it provides ahead of time. nuthin like having a quantitative handle on luck if your interested in it at all.
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showpost.php?p=108845&postcount=209

 

[aslan]

Luck, that's what happens when opportunity meets preparation.

My favorite kind of luck is fortuitous things happening when you are totally clueless.

 

[sagefr0g]

My favorite kind of luck is fortuitous things happening when you are totally clueless.

yuhh, yuhh really pretty much part of the definiton of luck or it should be, and how about this, like well ok in those remarkably numerous times that such wonderfully fortuitous things happen in our cluelessness (cluelessness in the real world perhaps more so than the casino), how often does one find one's self shrugging the event off as either not so significant, our own skill (when really it was not) or if not shrugging it off just being well, like you say clueless? but if one was to think about it, well the event would be like you imply a most favored gem in our spectrum of experiences. yet still we profit from it. something to smile about.
however, in a casino one is likely to not profit from such clueless (even though it need not be a clueless event because we have maths) events as they are as well not fully recognized. it's like what do they say about casino patrons? i think something like 70% at some time shall be ahead at some point before they lose their shirts. so, but for a proficient AP in the long run luck may make no difference (as the good & bad cancel and the edge takes precedence). so maybe we can't make the bad luck go away in casino's, thing is though maybe we can understand it for what it is to our greatest capability (ie. maths, blackjack theory and an understanding of it's limitations), perhaps according to our own set of rules and philosophies make informed decisions with regard to that awareness of luck, or lack there of. maybe, it is only our own cluelessness with regard to the events that transpired leading up to bad luck that allowed us to let it happen in the first place. perhaps, in an archaic sense we may learn something that blackjack theory and maths can't tell us due to their inherent limitations.
lol, that said one thing i know for sure, it may be true that we may win a lot of money in a negative shoe that has poor prospects for becoming a positive shoe, but it would be none the less wise if one was to win anything at all in such a shoe to walk away instead of sitting and playing all. like perhaps one is a play all sort of counting player, but say such a player recognizes some quantified degree of luck, he could make a decision as to playing all or not for some particular negative shoe where the prospects for a positive count are poor.
it's kind of interesting to toy with that same reasoning with regard to say a pure basic strategy player (who can have a limited degree of understanding of luck quantified), and for perhaps, counters (who can have a limited degree of understanding of luck quantified) whose skills are less than perfect.

 

[aslan]

... it may be true that we may win a lot of money in a negative shoe that has poor prospects for becoming a positive shoe, but it would be none the less wise if one was to win anything at all in such a shoe to walk away instead of sitting and playing all...

Why is that? Last trip I won two shoes back to back in negative counts. The thirds shoe started out with a few losers, so I packed it in and left. Voodoo, I know...but my wallet doesn't know the difference!

 

[sagefr0g]

Why is that? Last trip I won two shoes back to back in negative counts. The thirds shoe started out with a few losers, so I packed it in and left. Voodoo, I know...but my wallet doesn't know the difference!

strange isn't it? but i know you know playing through negative shoes is negative EV in the long term.
but hey if you can get away with it, well i'd call that some good luck.
but i guess it's your double downs don't succeed as much and snappers don't come as often and then where they do work out, well you probably just have a small bet out. probably, i think though you win close to the same amount of hands in the negative shoe, but to me when i play them it doesn't seem like it though.
lol, it sticks in my memory on numerous occassions when i used to wong out religiously, come back to the table and my table mates would be telling me how i shouldn't have left, best shoe yet, yada, yada, ayada. :cool2::whip:
but hey maybe you got that archaic 'sixth' sense as too what makes a negative shoe work sometimes. lemme know the secret, lol, pm me.:eyepatch::whip:

 

[aslan]

strange isn't it? but i know you know playing through negative shoes is negative EV in the long term.
but hey if you can get away with it, well i'd call that some good luck.
but i guess it's your double downs don't succeed as much and snappers don't come as often and then where they do work out, well you probably just have a small bet out. probably, i think though you win close to the same amount of hands in the negative shoe, but to me when i play them it doesn't seem like it though.
lol, it sticks in my memory on numerous occassions when i used to wong out religiously, come back to the table and my table mates would be telling me how i shouldn't have left, best shoe yet, yada, yada, ayada. :cool2::whip:
but hey maybe you got that archaic 'sixth' sense as too what makes a negative shoe work sometimes. lemme know the secret, lol, pm me.:eyepatch::whip:

pm hahaha no secret. It's all voodoo. But you must concede that there are shoes that run consistently against the dealer, It happens and you can feel it, but you don't know how it happens. It works in reverse too. The cards just seem stacked against you. You just know you're going to lose, but your knowledge of counting keeps you bucking the feeling and the actual beating you insist on taking. hahaha I wonder if any work has been done to identify ways in which the cards can bunch together to provide an edge against the dealer when the count is negative. Eventually the cards work there way around into different configurations so that maybe there is more than one situation in which a player edge can be identified (besides the remaining cards being heavy in tens and aces). Maybe when the cards are perfectly evenly distributed between high and low cards spells one thing, and when there are bunches of tens and bunches of low cards spells another thing. Or if the cards get into pair of tens and pairs of low cards, or bunches of aces all together. Has anyone done any scientific research on patterns of cards and how they affect the house edge? I guess it could be done, the testing that is, by setting the cards into various configurations and seeing how the simulations works out with these "stacked" decks. Anyway, even without the testing, maybe, just maybe, one's unconscious mind sees what is going on and dispatches that ominous feeling to one's consciousness as a warning to pull back. Or sometimes it tells us to hang around and reap the benefits even though the count is way south. Voodoo. But there may be something to it, and it may be scientifically discernible. If I had the time I would research it myself. Maybe I will.

Sometimes these things happen when you say, "The count is negative but I'll just play three hands and if I lose I'll go to dinner." So you do and you win all three, so you say to yourself, "I'll just play what I won and if I lose it, I'll go to dinner," and so you do and you win five in a row and lose one. So you say, I'll put aside 4 units and play the rest until I lose it, but you keep on winning. So you say, I'll put a few more chips aside and just play the rest, and you do and you continue to win. Well, that pretty much describes how I get into these long positive runs in negative counts. And finally, you lose like 3 out of 4, so you get this feeling that your luck has "run out" so you just quit and go to dinner. lol That's how it happens. Nothing scientific. All voodoo. All based on feelings that are either natural feelings of fear, or just perhaps, and I know it is far-fetched, based on sophisticated calculations performed by your unconscious mind, and then the results relayed to your conscious mind in the form of feelings. Only a study of card patterns might reveal whether there is anything to the premise that different configurations of cards might favor or not favor the player, over and above the known favorability of a shoe rich in tens and aces.

 

[sagefr0g]

pm hahaha no secret. It's all voodoo.

lol, i was being facetious, wasn't i. and i shouldn't of done that cause i'm not sure i can spell that word.:whip:

But you must concede that there are shoes that run consistently against the dealer, It happens and you can feel it, but you don't know how it happens. It works in reverse too. The cards just seem stacked against you. You just know you're going to lose, but your knowledge of counting keeps you bucking the feeling and the actual beating you insist on taking. hahaha I wonder if any work has been done to identify ways in which the cards can bunch together to provide an edge against the dealer when the count is negative. Eventually the cards work there way around into different configurations so that maybe there is more than one situation in which a player edge can be identified (besides the remaining cards being heavy in tens and aces). Maybe when the cards are perfectly evenly distributed between high and low cards spells one thing, and when there are bunches of tens and bunches of low cards spells another thing. Or if the cards get into pair of tens and pairs of low cards, or bunches of aces all together. Has anyone done any scientific research on patterns of cards and how they affect the house edge? I guess it could be done, the testing that is, by setting the cards into various configurations and seeing how the simulations works out with these "stacked" decks. Anyway, even without the testing, maybe, just maybe, one's unconscious mind sees what is going on and dispatches that ominous feeling to one's consciousness as a warning to pull back. Or sometimes it tells us to hang around and reap the benefits even though the count is way south. Voodoo. But there may be something to it, and it may be scientifically discernible. If I had the time I would research it myself. Maybe I will.

Sometimes these things happen when you say, "The count is negative but I'll just play three hands and if I lose I'll go to dinner." So you do and you win all three, so you say to yourself, "I'll just play what I won and if I lose it, I'll go to dinner," and so you do and you win five in a row and lose one. So you say, I'll put aside 4 units and play the rest until I lose it, but you keep on winning. So you say, I'll put a few more chips aside and just play the rest, and you do and you continue to win. Well, that pretty much describes how I get into these long positive runs in negative counts. And finally, you lose like 3 out of 4, so you get this feeling that your luck has "run out" so you just quit and go to dinner. lol That's how it happens. Nothing scientific. All voodoo. All based on feelings that are either natural feelings of fear, or just perhaps, and I know it is far-fetched, based on sophisticated calculations performed by your unconscious mind, and then the results relayed to your conscious mind in the form of feelings. Only a study of card patterns might reveal whether there is anything to the premise that different configurations of cards might favor or not favor the player, over and above the known favorability of a shoe rich in tens and aces.

yeah, i acutally do that gamblin sort of approach when the shoe is hopeless in negative territory, the ok, i play a hand if i win it maybe i'll try another maybe not sort of thing lmao.
but yeah, i dunno if there has ever been a scientific study that cracks the reason we sometimes do so well in a negative shoe. i suspect as you allude the order just happens to be advantageous and well the house has it's little dance with luck just as we do, far as standard deviation and how the game varies.
so but yeah, i confess and well at least i know it's voodoo, i'd just say like when i'm playing blackjack with cvbj and i do that a lot, lol well i'm aware of this undercurrent of less than fully concious reverie or what ever you wanna call it. intuitive, non-scientific, non-mathematical musings or what ever and it's not always right and i have remind myself not to act on all that, lmao.
something there though and it's less than fuzzy lol. thinking about what your saying reminds me how it was in elementary school when the teacher was trying to teach us simple arithmetic. she wanted us to get the answers to the problems by writing on paper how we arrived at our answers. i'd just write the answer on the paper or say it out loud. don't know how the heck i was doing that, but the teacher put an end to it real quick, lmao.

 

[aslan]

lol, i was being facetious, wasn't i. and i shouldn't of done that cause i'm not sure i can spell that word.:whip:

yeah, i acutally do that gamblin sort of approach when the shoe is hopeless in negative territory, the ok, i play a hand if i win it maybe i'll try another maybe not sort of thing lmao.
but yeah, i dunno if there has ever been a scientific study that cracks the reason we sometimes do so well in a negative shoe. i suspect as you allude the order just happens to be advantageous and well the house has it's little dance with luck just as we do, far as standard deviation and how the game varies.
so but yeah, i confess and well at least i know it's voodoo, i'd just say like when i'm playing blackjack with cvbj and i do that a lot, lol well i'm aware of this undercurrent of less than fully concious reverie or what ever you wanna call it. intuitive, non-scientific, non-mathematical musings or what ever and it's not always right and i have remind myself not to act on all that, lmao.
something there though and it's less than fuzzy lol. thinking about what your saying reminds me how it was in elementary school when the teacher was trying to teach us simple arithmetic. she wanted us to get the answers to the problems by writing on paper how we arrived at our answers. i'd just write the answer on the paper or say it out loud. don't know how the heck i was doing that, but the teacher put an end to it real quick, lmao.

I thought as much. We had the same teacher. It doesn't count if you have the right answer, if you can't tell me how you got it. Duh!! I just saw what it was, teacher. Sorry, ++++, that doesn't count! Well, I have news for you---it does count in blackjack--although you may never know how you did it!!

 

[Kasi]

yes i did change unit spread. i was trying to simplify the original sheet you downloaded since it was originally set up for two sim's if you recall.
i didn't mess it up did i?
i had a dual intent for attaching it as i wanted to share it with one of the guys who went to the BJ BASH. by the way Kasi, where the heck was you? my wife was devastated you didn't show, lol.
please let me know if i messed the sheet up, cause i'll ask Sonny to wack it if i did and i'll try and get a good one posted in place of it.

Well, if your units got changed from the sheet you posted, that would explain it lol.

But then, anyone who downloaded the sheet and only changed the roll to $6K and the unit to $5 would get slightly different results lol.

You bet different units at different times, things change a little lol.

So I doubt you messed up the sheet - you just maybe used it to plug in a different spread with a different roll and a different unit size for the same game and, hopefully lol, that's what the sim would give you if you used those same numbers in another sim lol.

That's pretty much what the sheet is for lol.

And, I do regret not being able to make it. Tell your wife to blame it on my wife lol.

 

[Kasi]

Whoooops!!! Wrong numerator and denominator--I had them flipped. Typical accountant! lol

:grin: :grin:

Been there. Done that. lmao.

It ain't easy being an accountant lol. I know.

 

[sagefr0g]

Well, if your units got changed from the sheet you posted, that would explain it lol.

But then, anyone who downloaded the sheet and only changed the roll to $6K and the unit to $5 would get slightly different results lol.

You bet different units at different times, things change a little lol.

So I doubt you messed up the sheet - you just maybe used it to plug in a different spread with a different roll and a different unit size for the same game and, hopefully lol, that's what the sim would give you if you used those same numbers in another sim lol.

That's pretty much what the sheet is for lol.

ok, i guess i need to ask then, cause i think i'm not understanding something.
like, lets say we did change the roll to $6k and the unit to $5 in the sheet. ok, i understand the sheet will no longer agree with the sim in the image.
so, but the question becomes once that change is made, wouldn't the data yielded still be valid for that particular game? in other words if you changed the roll and unit in the sim to the 6k and $5 units wouldn't the data for the sheet agree with the sims' data?
hmm, well i guess i can try it and see.

And, I do regret not being able to make it. Tell your wife to blame it on my wife lol.

just rassing you a bit, lol. :joker::whip: