Taking out a loan for gambling

[Brutus]

2 of 3?

if I was under 21, that would be a big thrill .
maybe even bigger than drinking beer on main street.

anymore, I just wanna get out of jury duty.

 

[Cass]

Well, I've done 2 out of the 3.

I actually dont think using a fake ID would be a big deal in a casino. The only time the ever look at it is when you first come in. Once you get by the security they dont care anymore. And even if they would catch you, they would just turn you away. But I highly doubt they would catch a decent fake ID.

Most places i played at last year i never got carded. I had JUst turned 22.

 

[tedloc]

Sure...

I got a letter in the mail this morning that offered me $25,000 unsecured loan at 10% interest rate. A home equity loan would probably be a better deal, but i was just wondering if any of you have contemplated taking out a loan to get a big BR. Seems to me you would be able to double up your money every few months and pay back a large loan quickly. What do you guys think?

Listen Cass
Most of the guys on this site, including myself cannot say they have won more money than they lost, this year. If you think you can make a profit each and every month, with a $25,000 loan from the bank, you are not thinking clearly. You know how it works, you do everything right and the dealer makes a 19 card 21 and beats the table. Next day your payment is due and guess what. No money

 

[shadroch]

I think both need to be done to become successful. I don't NEED to borrow 25k and i wouldnt suggest it. I just would like to be able to put more money on the table or not worry about my puny br going up and down soo much due to my over betting it. I'm the type of spoiled person when i want something i dont like waiting for it. I go out and do it.

Does that sound like you have the needed discipline?




I've reached the conclusion because I can count down a deck in 15 seconds accurately every time. I've learned 30 or so variable indices. I never lose count in the casino even after playing 8-10 hours straight. I've won a lot of money several times, but i've also lost a lot several times. After playing for about 150 hours over the last couple months I'm exactly even money. The odds of this or worse happening are around 20%. Now some of the reasons why i am not up money: Overbetting my BR and not bringing enough pocket cash so i went bust a few times. Ive considered quiting a few times when my BR really tanked but i kept playing and won my money back. I've started with 10k seen it drop as low as 3500, and the highest it has been is 12k. Ive generally had a top bet of 100-300. One particular occasion i really overbet I was topping my bets at 2x500 after being up a couple thousand. I wanted to leave up 5k or lose the 3k that i brought with. guess what happend? 5k went to zero in half a shoe! I got all the 10/3's, -10/7's Dealer got all 20's. Does that mean i was playing incorrectly? In regard to the amount bet yes, but im sure my counting was accurate. Just bad luck.


I thought Advantage Players didn't believe in luck,good or bad.





That cost me dearly. I guess ive learned from those mistakes.

Doesn't sound like it to me.Guessing is not an AP term.



OH yeah needing a full time players income... I have a great job i own a dental lab. Most money is going into paying that down (purchased it a year ago). My plan is whatever i can make in a year of playing blackjack is going to the purchase of a vehicle. hopefully ferrari 360 But it will probably end up being a used vette. Time will tell i guess.


No, it just got me thinking and i havent read anything on the topic before. There is a lot better ways for me to acquire this money. Im selling a house that will be on the market in a month or so i should have 25-35k in equity in that. It is just that who knows how long that will take to sell. I guess im not patient and i like to gamble too much!

Again,not signs you'd associate with an AP.
It sounds like you are a relatively new player that is trying to sprint when you should be jogging.Ahead of where I am,without a doubt,but far from the top. The ironic thing is that I just saw you giving someone else the same advice on another board.

 

[Automatic Monkey]

Listen Cass
Most of the guys on this site, including myself cannot say they have won more money than they lost, this year. If you think you can make a profit each and every month, with a $25,000 loan from the bank, you are not thinking clearly. You know how it works, you do everything right and the dealer makes a 19 card 21 and beats the table. Next day your payment is due and guess what. No money

Cass listen to this guy... it's very easy to lose $25K playing blackjack at the kind of level it would take to make paying the interest on the loan worthwhile.

Not to bust your balls about being young or anything but what makes this game tough is that it takes a combination of a young man's desire and an old man's wisdom. You are doing great with half of that. Let some of the veteran players here supply you with the other half. My first year playing I started out with 11 straight winning sessions, made over 5X EV for the year. See if you can guess what happened to me next year. This year I'm doing just fine, right around EV. You will be shocked at how easily playing losses and unplanned expenses can pile up, leaving you in debt and without a bankroll to play with and pay off those debts. It's as cruel and vicious as anything you can imagine .

 

[zengrifter]

Again,not signs you'd associate with an AP.
It sounds like you are a relatively new player that is trying to sprint when you should be jogging.Ahead of where I am,without a doubt,but far from the top. The ironic thing is that I just saw you giving someone else the same advice on another board.

Disagree. If his play is solid he should at least move to solid green action quickly if he can muster the finance. However, there is some evidence in his posts that he may be prone to over-betting and that will need to be controlled. zg

 

[zengrifter]

Cass listen to this guy... it's very easy to lose $25K playing blackjack at the kind of level it would take to make paying the interest on the loan worthwhile.

Lets analyse that - what is the interest on the $25k? Presumeably the money would be held in an interest bearing account, so whats the net-negative?

AutoMonk, have YOU ever borrowed money for BR/play? (most APs have) zg

 

[shadroch]

25,000 at 10%=$2500.first year.
Best money markets pay around 4%. Obviously not all the money would be earning interest all the time. 25G at 4% equals $1,000.However,should you lose half your BR early on,your interest tumbles.A ballpark quesstimate would be you would need to be about $1,000 ahead after six months to be even with your payments. Not terrible,not great.

 

[shadroch]

Disagree. If his play is solid he should at least move to solid green action quickly if he can muster the finance. However, there is some evidence in his posts that he may be prone to over-betting and that will need to be controlled. zg[/QUOT


What kind of BR would you suggest for solid green action on a part-time basis?My chart indicates $10,000.

 

[zengrifter]

Disagree. If his play is solid he should at least move to solid green action quickly if he can muster the finance. However, there is some evidence in his posts that he may be prone to over-betting and that will need to be controlled. zg[/QUOT


What kind of BR would you suggest for solid green action on a part-time basis?My chart indicates $10,000.

If not repleinshable and shoes, $25k. zg

 

[Automatic Monkey]

I have

AutoMonk, have YOU ever borrowed money for BR/play? (most APs have) zg

Yes I have, about $10K to fund a 4-day trip, and I make $75K a year salary. For me a loan is just a payroll advance necessary to make my BJ time as lucrative as my engineering time. For you, you're enough of an expert where a loan is a reasonable but very speculative investment. From Cass' messages I'm getting that he's planning on playing as his primary source of income, and he believes that paying off the loan won't be a problem no matter what. I also just found out he's very inexperienced. This is not a good combination.

 

[zengrifter]

Yes I have, about $10K to fund a 4-day trip, and I make $75K a year salary. For me a loan is just a payroll advance necessary to make my BJ time as lucrative as my engineering time. For you, you're enough of an expert where a loan is a reasonable but very speculative investment. From Cass' messages I'm getting that he's planning on playing as his primary source of income, and he believes that paying off the loan won't be a problem no matter what. I also just found out he's very inexperienced. This is not a good combination.

You misconstrued part of his message - he owns a lucrative dental lab practise - his professional situation is not different than yours, though presumeably he has less BJ experience. zg

 

[ScottH]

Most places i played at last year i never got carded. I had JUst turned 22.

I have only been carded once, and I have been to the casino at least 5 times.

 

[ScottH]

From Cass' messages I'm getting that he's planning on playing as his primary source of income, and he believes that paying off the loan won't be a problem no matter what.

He is planning on selling a house in the near future. So even in the event that he would lose the entire loan he would be at least OK. I also think he was just asking if anyone would take out a loan, and not that he will necessarily do it himself. He will probably wait until his house sells, but if he gets the loan it's just like selling the house a little quicker. It's not like he has no assets and is taking out a 25k loan and hoping for the best.

 

[Cass]

Disagree. If his play is solid he should at least move to solid green action quickly if he can muster the finance. However, there is some evidence in his posts that he may be prone to over-betting and that will need to be controlled. zg

The one time I was betting 500x2 I was kind of going "all in " I was planning on quiting for along time after that session.(didnt happen). Now The most i bet is 150X1 or 100x2. sometimes 100x1 or 75x2. Depends on the game. If I was taking out a loan for gambling I WONT BE overbetting it. I've become more conservative and smarter as im going along. I dont know what advice he is referring to, but I always tell people be sure not to overbet!! :laugh:

 

[Cass]

Yes I have, about $10K to fund a 4-day trip, and I make $75K a year salary. For me a loan is just a payroll advance necessary to make my BJ time as lucrative as my engineering time. For you, you're enough of an expert where a loan is a reasonable but very speculative investment. From Cass' messages I'm getting that he's planning on playing as his primary source of income, and he believes that paying off the loan won't be a problem no matter what. I also just found out he's very inexperienced. This is not a good combination.

My situation is very close to yours. The loan would probably be paid back in a few months with other assests. The gambling BR would be just that. Not used to pay back the original loan. I wouldnt be taking anymoney from the bankroll.

 

[Cass]

He is planning on selling a house in the near future. So even in the event that he would lose the entire loan he would be at least OK. I also think he was just asking if anyone would take out a loan, and not that he will necessarily do it himself. He will probably wait until his house sells, but if he gets the loan it's just like selling the house a little quicker. It's not like he has no assets and is taking out a 25k loan and hoping for the best.

Yes exactly, Glad I converted you scott Not many seem to understand that. It wasnt really my intentional question what is right FORME anyway.

 

[Automatic Monkey]

My situation is very close to yours. The loan would probably be paid back in a few months with other assests. The gambling BR would be just that. Not used to pay back the original loan. I wouldnt be taking anymoney from the bankroll.

All right. Well now, if you are just 22 or 23 you can't possibly have enough of a career and financial history to fall back on if you screw up, but on the positive side, you have a lot of time to fix it if you do.

That said, here's my idea for you. You're planning on playing in MN right? Well I have played in most of those places, and you don't need $25K in your pocket to play them if you have a decent and steady income. Those casinos can't handle very large action anyway. You can calculate your betting level in terms of trip ruin. You do it like this: pick a risk of ruin that you can tolerate for a single session; "ruin" being defined as you have to stop playing and go home. For me, that risk is between 2% and 5%, depending on circumstances. That equates to playing every week and going home early once or twice a year. Now, use your CVData software to simulate the game you are planning to play in the way you are planning to play it, figure out how many hands represents a "trip", and then calculate how many units you will need to get your trip ruin down where you want it. Chances are it will come out to be a few weeks pay, and if you don't have that sitting in the bank right now without taking a loan, you are in no position to play. And if you bust out, you save your pay for a couple of weeks while you're contemplating the swings and what you have learned from the experience and go back again. You will need even much more discipline than what it takes to do this to be a successful player, so this will be a good test for you. Using this method your win rate will be the same and you will not have to get involved with the expense and risk of a loan.

 

[zengrifter]

All right. Well now, if you are just 22 or 23 you can't possibly have enough of a career and financial history to fall back on if you screw up, but on the positive side, you have a lot of time to fix it if you do.

That said, here's my idea for you. You're planning on playing in MN right? Well I have played in most of those places, and you don't need $25K in your pocket to play them if you have a decent and steady income. Those casinos can't handle very large action anyway. You can calculate your betting level in terms of trip ruin. You do it like this: pick a risk of ruin that you can tolerate for a single session; "ruin" being defined as you have to stop playing and go home. For me, that risk is between 2% and 5%, depending on circumstances. That equates to playing every week and going home early once or twice a year. Now, use your CVData software to simulate the game you are planning to play in the way you are planning to play it, figure out how many hands represents a "trip", and then calculate how many units you will need to get your trip ruin down where you want it. Chances are it will come out to be a few weeks pay, and if you don't have that sitting in the bank right now without taking a loan, you are in no position to play. And if you bust out, you save your pay for a couple of weeks while you're contemplating the swings and what you have learned from the experience and go back again. You will need even much more discipline than what it takes to do this to be a successful player, so this will be a good test for you. Using this method your win rate will be the same and you will not have to get involved with the expense and risk of a loan.

I like that approach. Size your tripRuin at 10-12 % and you may be at the same betting level as $25k BR. Have a provision to replenish on the spot IF you do hit tripRuin (don't go home early, it will cost you in the longrun). zg

Ps - If you are forced to go home early, jump online, fireup the CIPHERBJ system and look for SWITCHBACKS!

 

[Cass]

All right. Well now, if you are just 22 or 23 you can't possibly have enough of a career and financial history to fall back on if you screw up, but on the positive side, you have a lot of time to fix it if you do..

It's amazing what can be accomplished by not going to college . I was granted a unique oppurtunity early on. Yeah i got my whole life to make money.

That said, here's my idea for you. You're planning on playing in MN right? Well I have played in most of those places, and you don't need $25K in your pocket to play them if you have a decent and steady income. Those casinos can't handle very large action anyway. You can calculate your betting level in terms of trip ruin. You do it like this: pick a risk of ruin that you can tolerate for a single session; "ruin" being defined as you have to stop playing and go home. For me, that risk is between 2% and 5%, depending on circumstances. That equates to playing every week and going home early once or twice a year. Now, use your CVData software to simulate the game you are planning to play in the way you are planning to play it, figure out how many hands represents a "trip", and then calculate how many units you will need to get your trip ruin down where you want it. Chances are it will come out to be a few weeks pay, and if you don't have that sitting in the bank right now without taking a loan, you are in no position to play. And if you bust out, you save your pay for a couple of weeks while you're contemplating the swings and what you have learned from the experience and go back again. You will need even much more discipline than what it takes to do this to be a successful player, so this will be a good test for you. Using this method your win rate will be the same and you will not have to get involved with the expense and risk of a loan.

That sounds good. Im going to vegas in a month and wanted to bring A LoT with me. Thats why i was contemplating this. I would like to be able to visit vegas once a month or so and be able to make the trip well worth my time. You should visit prior lake, MN. Its worth a flight from anywhere in the world for a counter. 150 or so tables... 5min-1000max. 90% pen on all the games! FAstest dealers ive seen! I will just have to wait a few months to build my br. Unless i cash out my IRA! hmmm... thats a whole other subject. I dont really feel like taking out a loan either. Its just nice knowing that if i need it I would have a whole lot of cash backing me up with instant access.